Padres’ Nick Pivetta Faces His Biggest Test Yet Against the Brewers

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

The San Diego Padres are on the brink of elimination with a 0-2 deficit in the NLDS against a Milwaukee Brewers team that grew stronger with two exciting comebacks at home. But that is not the only worrying news, as Nick Pivetta was announced to take the mound as the starter for the do-or-die contest. Why is that worrying? Well, his terrible past against the Brewers puts him at the center of attention. In five starts, he has a 1-3 record and 8.76 ERA with 24 strikeouts and, worst of all, 14 walks in just 24 2/3 innings.

Pivetta was on the injured list from mid-April and returned in September to the rotation. In five outings, he finished with a 2-0 record and 1.64 ERA and allowed only two home runs. His arsenal looked good and he averaged 94 mph after throwing 302 four-seam fastballs, his best peak since he recorded 94.6 mph in 2023. Although he has thrown only 34 2/3 frames this season, Pivetta has been dominant, especially when he mixes the cutter, the sweeper and his curveball. All are pitches that have improved in terms of their perfect contact allowed rates compared to their samples from last year, and they have helped him be more efficient against left-handed hitters.

Another key aspect of Pivetta is how consistent he has been when he faces the batting order for the first and second time, limiting his opponents to a .284 and .298 slugging percentage, respectively. His command of the strike zone in that aspect will be vital, since his opponents’ on-base percentage improves when he faces the order for the second time. Pivetta has not allowed home runs this year in that situation, but hitters have improved their contact rate by 5.0%.

The Brewers are characterized by having a lineup that adapts to any situation, and it is clear that they need to take advantage of every slip from Pivetta before he can advance and the relievers take over the game. Unfortunately for the Padres, Brewers hitters Pivetta could face in Game 3 have combined for a .302/.370/.508 offensive line, with seven extra-base hits, three of them home runs, and an .878 OPS.

Christian Yelich is an old acquaintance of Pivetta. He hit two home runs against him punishing his fastball when he played with the Marlins in the past, but since he has been in Milwaukee he has gone 3-for-7 against him with a double and three RBIs. In most of those counts there was a common denominator, Yelich’s patience, without chasing pitches on the edges of the corners and the high zone. Despite a down season, he could be the biggest threat in the lineup tonight.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the hitters, since there are some additional interesting points here:

The production from Gary Sanchez and Sal Frelick has mainly come against Pivetta’s fastball, and there have been quality at-bats from Joey Ortiz and Jake Bauers. But in what will be several of the matchups under the greatest pressure, Pivetta has shown dominance against Brice Turang, William Contreras and Jackson Chourio in the past, who combine for a .182/.280/.227 line against the right-hander.

However, behind those slash lines, Chourio’s raw talent did not completely disappear, as he averaged a 67% hard-hit rate in the three at-bats in which he put the ball in play. Turang, who in general is 1-for-6 with three strikeouts, also hit the curveball better, leaving Contreras’ case as the most critical, with a 33.3% whiff rate.

Pivetta located most of those pitches outside the zone against Contreras, and his only big mistakes came when he left pitches right down the middle. Turang and Bauers went 0-for-8 in Game 2, so it is possible that manager Pat Murphy experiments with some change in the lineup. In any case, Pivetta’s matchups against Contreras and Yelich could be key for both sides.

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