Gotta Get to 42: Padres' Plan for NLDS Game 4 Will Be a Race Against Baseball's Clock

[Matt Trueblood]

When Walker Buehler takes the ball and climbs the hill to start Game 4 of the NLDS Wednesday night, the clocks will already be ticking, metaphorically. There will be an actual clock marking the time of day, somewhere in Craig Stammen's field of vision, and there will be another counting down the seconds until Buehler must deliver his next pitch, but Stammen won't pay any attention to those. He'll be keeping time, though, in three ways, updating his clocks and syncing them to one another as he tries to stay ahead of the swing of a metaphorical second hand that will chase him around like a sword until it either stops short, or cuts the Padres' season so.

One clock will be pitch count. Buehler hasn't pitched since September 26, so he's fresh, but he's not as ready to work deep into a game as another pitcher might be. He had to prepare differently over the intervening days than he normally would, first in deference to the team's Wild Card Series needs, then to work around being away briefly for the birth of his child. He threw 73 pitches on the penultimate day of the regular season; it's safe to say that he won't go past 75 in this one.

That's likely to be the easiest clock to manage, at least for Buehler. The next clock will be batters faced. Some bad matchups for Buehler lurk in the bottom half of the Brewers' likely batting order, so whereas the initial plan might ordinarily be to get through the order twice before turning to the pen in an elimination game, Stammen is likely to look for a good way to get Buehler out after 14 batters in Game 4. Fourteen batters faced would mean lifting him after he faces the No. 5 hitter the second time. In each of the two games started by righty hurlers in this series for the Padres, Milwaukee has answered with a lineup that slots lefty batters (Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell) into the No. 5 and No. 6 spots, and they're likely to have either Sal Frelick or Luis Lara (a switch-hitter) at the bottom of the order, too. Thus, the clock might really run out on Buehler after 13 batters.

That's when Robbie Ray should enter the fray. A new clock starts then, but Ray's pitch count won't matter much, either. Nor will he work to 13 or 14 batters; he's likely to face no more than 11. In fact, in a perfect world, Stammen would probably avoid having any Brewers batter see Ray a second time. If he can bring him in to face that lefty pocket right away, however, he buys himself some wiggle room. That way, should a Brewers batter face him twice, it's one over whom he holds a platoon-based matchup edge. 

Ray is an important part of the gameplan. Although this marks just the fourth day since his Game 1 start, he's firmly in play, with all hands needing to be ready for a potential Game 5 after another day off. Because Yuki Matsui has pitched three times (all for relatively significant stretches, as short reliever workloads go) in the first three games of this series, Stammen needs to stay away from him in Game 4. He's likely to be fatigued and make a mistake, but there's also matchup exhaustion at work. The Brewers' lefty bats have already seen plenty of him. The mystery is beginning to wear off.

Name

Matsui

Morejon

Ray

Adam

King

Miller

Morgan

Musgrove

Pivetta

Rodriguez

Vasquez

Buehler

Peralta

Contreras

XX

X

XX

X

XXX

X

XX

X

Sanchez

X

Vaughn

X

X

Bauers

XX

X

XX

X

XXX

X

XX

X

Turang

XXX

X

XX

XXX

X

XX

X

Pratt

X

X

X

XXX

XX

XX

Ortiz

X

X

XX

XX

Hamilton

XXX

X

Chourio

X

XX

X

XXX

X

XX

XXX

Mitchell

XX

X

X

XX

X

XX

XX

Lara

X

X

X

Frelick

XX

XXX

X

XX

Yelich

XXX

XX

XXX

X

XX

X

If things break right, Stammen can probably get through 25 batters with the combination of Buehler and Ray. That could mean getting all the way through six innings, but it's likely to leave Ray out of runway somewhere in the middle of the sixth. That's where a third clock that Stammen will need to be tracking becomes the dominant one. It runs backward. It's counting down outs until it's safe for him to turn to Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller.

Morejon was unavailable in Game 3, and obviously, there's no ironclad guarantee that he'll be usable in Game 4. It seems safe to guess so, though. The team has been careful with him, but the way they had to use their staff to survive Game 3 only sharpened their desperation to get him back in the mix. Meanwhile, Miller is back from a one-day absence for paternity leave. He hasn't pitched since Game 2, so though he threw 40 pitches that day, he's had time enough to recover. He'll be available—no, he will pitch, is a better way to put it. Someday soon, in a situation like this, we'll see a team simply start the game with their Miller-like relief ace. Until then, suffice it to say that Stammen won't let the season end without Miller at least holding the Brewers where they are at the end of the game. 

Between Morejon's balky shoulder and Miller's difficult outing in Game 2, though, Stammen must know he can't ask either for two full innings again. He'll have to wait until the seventh if he wants to close the game out with just his two relief aces. Morejon can get four or five outs, but shouldn't be asked for more. Ditto for Miller.

That leaves a tiny hole, perhaps, in the sixth. It's there that the game might be decided. The Brewers sent 36 batters to the plate (in eight turns) in Game 1, and 37 (ending in a walkoff, so they never made their 27th out) in Game 2. In Game 3, it was 41. The Padres' plan for Game 4 has to center on the number 42. If they have a flexible set of plans that gets them from Batter No. 1 to Batter No. 42, they have a chance to win. Buehler and Ray cover 25 of the 42. Morejon and Miller can combine for 12. That leaves five batters to account for. It might turn out to be just one or two; it might turn out to be six. But let's say it's four or five. Who fits into that hole, facing the bottom of the order the third time and the top of the order the fourth?

David Morgan is a candidate. He's on the roster, but has yet to appear. By now, even though Stammen plainly (and rightfully) trusts Bradgley Rodriguez far more, Morgan has to be a real option. Like Matsui, Rodriguez has appeared in each of the first three games of the series. There hasn't been as much overlap in which batters he's faced, so there's a bit less accumulated familiarity for individual hitters against him, but Rodriguez should be down for Game 4, too. If Game 5 happens, he and Matsui can be heroes again. For now, they have to count on the rest of the squad to get them there.

The other name is the fun name—but also the dangerous one. Joe Musgrove's return to the mound in the Wild Card Series was emotional and triumphant. It was also easy. There was no pressure; just love. San Diego had a huge lead in that game, and knew they were going to win it. Musgrove's appearance was practically a cherry on top of the sundae. That's not the kind of appearance the team is likely to need in Game 4. Even if the margin is the same on the scoreboard (which is unlikely), the series is very different. Musgrove has to be ready to attack and to beat hitters, if he's to get a look at (among others) Jackson Chourio with the Padres' season on the line.

Still, that's the right move. If Stammen trusted Morgan, we'd have seen him already. His walk rate is scary; Stammen is right to be wary. A bout of wildness could set off a crooked-number rally that puts the game out of reach, in the tiny crease between the bulk pitchers the team trusts and its relief aces. They need someone who has a history of throwing strikes under playoff pressure. They need to trust Musgrove in that little lacuna where this game is likely to be decided.

The Road to 42 (batters faced) is also the Road to 27 (outs), and that road leads back to Milwaukee and Game 5. To traverse it safely, Stammen will need a deft touch and some flexibility in his mindset, but this should be his roadmap. Buehler, Ray, Musgrove, Morejon and Miller can replicate what Nick Pivetta, Jason Adam, Matsui, Rodriguez and Michael King did in Game 3. The rest of the burden will fall on the offense, as the Brewers try to sketch their own roadmap to victory.

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