Padres Free Agency Wish List: Four Rotation Arms San Diego Should Pursue

[Sam Caulder]

The San Diego Padres should be pleased with how their 2026 season finished. After spending a good chunk of the year on the outside looking in at the playoff picture, the Friars turned things around after the All-Star break and wound up hosting a Wild Card Series.

They thoroughly pummeled the Cubs in that two-game set, earning themselves a matchup with the Brewers. Unfortunately, Milwaukee proved to be a much tougher challenge, but San Diego still showed it could compete with the best team in baseball. With a few additions this winter, the Padres could be even better in 2027. And if they want to take that next step, one of their biggest priorities should be improving the starting rotation.

Padres' Offseason Rotation Plan: Top Free Agents Actually Worth Targeting

Michael King has expressed interest in returning, but that’s far from a guarantee. Robbie Ray, Casey Mize and Walker Buehler are all free agents, while Nick Pivetta has a $14 million club option that could help provide some stability.

Point being, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding this group. If San Diego wants to make another deep postseason run, adding some reliable arms will be crucial. With that in mind, here are four free agent starting pitchers the Padres could target this winter.

LHP Tarik Skubal

Skubal will be the top name available this winter, and obviously, all 30 teams would love to have this guy. He’s won back-to-back Cy Young Awards and has established himself as arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He’ll have no shortage of suitors, hence why the bidding could get pretty ridiculous. Still, there’s reason to believe San Diego could have some mutual interest here.

He was born in California, roughly 400 miles from San Diego (though he grew up in Arizona), and while the Padres weren’t closely linked to him at the trade deadline, that could change this winter. There’s been plenty of national buzz surrounding the possibility of the Padres going hard after Skubal in free agency, and it’s not difficult to see why. If there’s any way to show you mean business, it’s by stealing one of the best pitchers in the sport away from the Dodgers. The Friars have spent recent years trying to keep pace with their division rival; landing Skubal would be an enormous statement.

Of course, signing him would require a massive financial commitment, and there’s no guarantee the Padres would be willing (or able) to meet his asking price. But if they’re serious about building a rotation capable of competing with the best teams in baseball, Skubal would be an incredible place to start.

LHP Trevor Rogers

Rogers is an interesting case because we’ve seen just how good he can be when everything comes together. He was absolutely dominant in 2025, posting a sub-2.00 ERA, although he managed just 109 2/3 innings that season. This year, he threw 169 2/3 innings, marking the first time in his career he’d cleared even 133 frames. That workload was encouraging, especially given his injury history, but his results weren’t quite as impressive. Rogers finished with a 4.03 ERA, though his FIP and expected ERA both landed in the mid-3.00s.

There are still plenty of reasons to like what he brings to the table. His chase rate and walk rate were both in the 92nd percentile, and he did a good job limiting hard contact. Rogers isn't going to rack up a ton of strikeouts or whiffs, but he keeps hitters off balance and consistently generates awkward swings.

He probably doesn't profile as a true ace, which should keep his price fairly comfortably below what someone like Skubal will command. His previous injury concerns could also lower that price, although his ability to handle a larger workload in 2026 should help his case.

Ultimately, Rogers feels like a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm who would bring badly needed upside to San Diego. He might not be the splashiest addition, but the Padres need more than just one quality starter to round out their rotation.

RHP Tyler Mahle

Mahle has bounced around quite a bit, playing for five teams over the last five seasons. However, his performance with Atlanta during the second half of 2026 turned some heads.

He finished with a 1.99 ERA across 54 1/3 innings, then followed that up with a couple of really strong postseason starts. That kind of finish is certainly going to help his case in free agency. Still, I wouldn't necessarily expect those numbers to translate into ace-level production moving forward. The underlying data paints more of a picture of a quality No. 3 or 4 starter than a top-of-the-rotation arm.

Mahle doesn't generate many whiffs or chases, and his average exit velocity allowed ranked in just the 23rd percentile. Those aren't exactly the kinds of numbers you'd expect from a pitcher who just dominated down the stretch. But there's more to pitching than missing bats. 

He pounds the strike zone, keeps the ball on the ground, and does a good job of sequencing his pitches. Those traits give him a foundation to succeed, even if he isn't blowing hitters away. Given his spotty track record, I wouldn't expect Mahle to demand top dollar. If San Diego can get him at a reasonable price, he profiles similarly to Rogers: a strong mid-rotation arm with the upside to turn into something more.

RHP Nick Martinez

How about a reunion? Martinez has quietly been a really solid pitcher over the last handful of seasons, finishing with an ERA in the low-to-mid 3.00s in four of the last five years. He also reached 180 innings with Tampa Bay this season, his first campaign as a full-time starter.

That's an encouraging combination of production and durability, especially for a Padres team that could use some dependable innings. Martinez is very much a pitch-to-contact guy. His whiff and strikeout rates were both in the fourth percentile or worse, so don't expect him to overpower opposing hitters. 

However, he ranked in the 100th percentile in walk rate, allowing free passes at just a 3.6% clip. And with a six-pitch mix, Martinez has plenty of ways to keep hitters off balance. He didn't keep the ball on the ground particularly often, but his hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity allowed were all very strong.

There's certainly a lot to like about that profile, even if he doesn't have the traditional stuff you'd want from a front-line starter. Martinez isn't flashy, and his underlying numbers suggest he might not be quite as good as his 3.10 ERA from the 2026 regular season would indicate. But he's a versatile arm with ample experience as both a starter and reliever, making him a synergistic fit with literally any pitching staff.

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