Sam Caulder

The San Diego Padres should be pleased with how their 2026 season finished. After spending a good chunk of the year on the outside looking in at the playoff picture, the Friars turned things around after the All-Star break and wound up hosting a Wild Card Series. They thoroughly pummeled the Cubs in that two-game set, earning themselves a matchup with the Brewers. Unfortunately, Milwaukee proved to be a much tougher challenge, but San Diego still showed it could compete with the best team in baseball. With a few additions this winter, the Padres could be even better in 2027. And if they want to take that next step, one of their biggest priorities should be improving the starting rotation. Padres' Offseason Rotation Plan: Top Free Agents Actually Worth Targeting Michael King has expressed interest in returning, but that’s far from a guarantee. Robbie Ray, Casey Mize and Walker Buehler are all free agents, while Nick Pivetta has a $14 million club option that could help provide some stability. Point being, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding this group. If San Diego wants to make another deep postseason run, adding some reliable arms will be crucial. With that in mind, here are four free agent starting pitchers the Padres could target this winter. LHP Tarik Skubal Skubal will be the top name available this winter, and obviously, all 30 teams would love to have this guy. He’s won back-to-back Cy Young Awards and has established himself as arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He’ll have no shortage of suitors, hence why the bidding could get pretty ridiculous. Still, there’s reason to believe San Diego could have some mutual interest here. He was born in California, roughly 400 miles from San Diego (though he grew up in Arizona), and while the Padres weren’t closely linked to him at the trade deadline, that could change this winter. There’s been plenty of national buzz surrounding the possibility of the Padres going hard after Skubal in free agency, and it’s not difficult to see why. If there’s any way to show you mean business, it’s by stealing one of the best pitchers in the sport away from the Dodgers. The Friars have spent recent years trying to keep pace with their division rival; landing Skubal would be an enormous statement. Of course, signing him would require a massive financial commitment, and there’s no guarantee the Padres would be willing (or able) to meet his asking price. But if they’re serious about building a rotation capable of competing with the best teams in baseball, Skubal would be an incredible place to start. LHP Trevor Rogers Rogers is an interesting case because we’ve seen just how good he can be when everything comes together. He was absolutely dominant in 2025, posting a sub-2.00 ERA, although he managed just 109 2/3 innings that season. This year, he threw 169 2/3 innings, marking the first time in his career he’d cleared even 133 frames. That workload was encouraging, especially given his injury history, but his results weren’t quite as impressive. Rogers finished with a 4.03 ERA, though his FIP and expected ERA both landed in the mid-3.00s. There are still plenty of reasons to like what he brings to the table. His chase rate and walk rate were both in the 92nd percentile, and he did a good job limiting hard contact. Rogers isn't going to rack up a ton of strikeouts or whiffs, but he keeps hitters off balance and consistently generates awkward swings. He probably doesn't profile as a true ace, which should keep his price fairly comfortably below what someone like Skubal will command. His previous injury concerns could also lower that price, although his ability to handle a larger workload in 2026 should help his case. Ultimately, Rogers feels like a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm who would bring badly needed upside to San Diego. He might not be the splashiest addition, but the Padres need more than just one quality starter to round out their rotation. RHP Tyler Mahle Mahle has bounced around quite a bit, playing for five teams over the last five seasons. However, his performance with Atlanta during the second half of 2026 turned some heads. He finished with a 1.99 ERA across 54 1/3 innings, then followed that up with a couple of really strong postseason starts. That kind of finish is certainly going to help his case in free agency. Still, I wouldn't necessarily expect those numbers to translate into ace-level production moving forward. The underlying data paints more of a picture of a quality No. 3 or 4 starter than a top-of-the-rotation arm. Mahle doesn't generate many whiffs or chases, and his average exit velocity allowed ranked in just the 23rd percentile. Those aren't exactly the kinds of numbers you'd expect from a pitcher who just dominated down the stretch. But there's more to pitching than missing bats. He pounds the strike zone, keeps the ball on the ground, and does a good job of sequencing his pitches. Those traits give him a foundation to succeed, even if he isn't blowing hitters away. Given his spotty track record, I wouldn't expect Mahle to demand top dollar. If San Diego can get him at a reasonable price, he profiles similarly to Rogers: a strong mid-rotation arm with the upside to turn into something more. RHP Nick Martinez How about a reunion? Martinez has quietly been a really solid pitcher over the last handful of seasons, finishing with an ERA in the low-to-mid 3.00s in four of the last five years. He also reached 180 innings with Tampa Bay this season, his first campaign as a full-time starter. That's an encouraging combination of production and durability, especially for a Padres team that could use some dependable innings. Martinez is very much a pitch-to-contact guy. His whiff and strikeout rates were both in the fourth percentile or worse, so don't expect him to overpower opposing hitters. However, he ranked in the 100th percentile in walk rate, allowing free passes at just a 3.6% clip. And with a six-pitch mix, Martinez has plenty of ways to keep hitters off balance. He didn't keep the ball on the ground particularly often, but his hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity allowed were all very strong. There's certainly a lot to like about that profile, even if he doesn't have the traditional stuff you'd want from a front-line starter. Martinez isn't flashy, and his underlying numbers suggest he might not be quite as good as his 3.10 ERA from the 2026 regular season would indicate. But he's a versatile arm with ample experience as both a starter and reliever, making him a synergistic fit with literally any pitching staff. View full article

The Padres have some work to do to get their rotation ready for another postseason run in 2027. Tarik Skubal, Trevor Rogers, Tyler Mahle, and Nick Martinez are four free agent starters who could help San Diego get there. View full video

After an injury-filled 2025 campaign that limited him to just 73 1/3 innings, Michael King returned to form in 2026. For a San Diego Padres pitching staff that entered the season with plenty of unknowns, getting that kind of performance was nothing short of a godsend. King finished the regular season with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP across 185 innings, recording 159 strikeouts and 70 walks. While he didn't quite match his elite 2024 numbers, he didn't need to. King was the ace the Padres needed, and he looked every bit the part during the postseason. His Wild Card Series start against the Chicago Cubs was nothing short of brilliant; the right-hander carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning before finishing with seven scoreless frames against what had been the best offense in baseball throughout the regular season. He followed that performance with another strong outing against the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS, allowing just one run across five innings. King even made a relief appearance in Game 3, throwing two more scoreless innings just two days after his start to keep the Friars' season alive for one more day. In short, King was excellent when San Diego needed him most. But while his results were impressive, some of the underlying numbers suggest there could be a few areas of concern moving forward. Let's start with the positives, because there were plenty of them. King was excellent at limiting hard contact, finishing in the 86th percentile or better among major-league pitchers in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity allowed. He also continued to keep the ball on the ground, an area where he has consistently excelled throughout his career. However, there were some warning signs beneath the surface. King's expected ERA (xERA) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) both landed in the low-to-mid 4.00s, well above his actual 3.21 ERA. While those metrics don't tell the entire story of a pitcher's season, the gap suggests King may have benefited from some favorable results. His strikeout numbers were another area of concern, as his strikeout rate dropped to 21% in 2026, placing him in the 38th percentile among major-league pitchers. It was also the lowest mark of his career. Likewise, his 24.5% whiff rate was his lowest since 2020. That's certainly a notable decline for a pitcher who has demonstrated the ability to miss bats at a much higher rate in the past. And considering his primary pitch actually improved in several important areas, the drop-off becomes even more bewildering. King's sinker performed better than it had in the past in terms of both velocity and movement. He also generated more whiffs with the pitch than he did in 2025. As such, much of the concern centered around his secondary pitches. He leaned heavily on his changeup as his primary secondary offering, much like he did during his breakout 2024 campaign. The difference was that the pitch wasn't nearly as effective this time around. Its spin rate dropped by nearly 200 RPM, and hitters made more hard contact against it. Even with a slightly flatter arm angle, the changeup didn't have the same amount of run. That limited its effectiveness, particularly when paired with his sinker. The sweeper was also a victim in this regard, lacking its usual break and playing flatter than it had in the past. As a result, opposing hitters had more success against it, further limiting his ability to consistently generate swings and misses with his secondary offerings. If he can regain some of the movement on his changeup and sweeper, there's reason to believe he can get back to missing bats at a higher rate. Still, the underlying numbers suggest his 2026 ERA might not tell the entire story. Of course, all of this is the backdrop to one of the biggest storylines hanging over the Padres' heads right now: King's future in San Diego. The right-hander has an opt-out in his contract ahead of the 2027 season and is reportedly likely to exercise it in search of a new deal. Given his production over the last few years, that decision wouldn't come as much of a surprise. Following the Padres' elimination, King spoke about what the organization and city have meant to him. "This is where we started a family," King said. "We started our foundation here. San Diego's been incredible for me, and it's all the way across the country from home. But now I feel like I have a second home on the West Coast, so it's been awesome. And yeah, I hope to continue." Those comments make it clear that King has developed a strong connection to San Diego, even if his next contract ultimately takes him elsewhere. Regardless of what the underlying metrics suggest, King has been a rock-solid presence in the Padres' rotation over the last few years. After dealing with injuries in 2025, he returned to provide 185 innings of quality production in 2026 before delivering some of his best work when the stakes were highest. He's shown that he can handle a substantial workload, limit hard contact, and give his team a chance to win against some of the best offenses in baseball. Whether he remains in San Diego or finds a new home in free agency, King has the ability to serve as a true frontline option for a contending team. View full article

The 2026 season was an... interesting one offensively for the San Diego Padres. Some familiar faces had productive seasons, while a newcomer emerged as a key piece in the middle of the lineup. And while the Friars ultimately had several hitters worthy of consideration, three stood out above the rest. Before we get to them, though, let's take a look at a couple of guys who just missed the cut. Honorable Mentions Manny Machado (158 G): .217/.303/.407 (.710 OPS), 22 2B, 30 HR, 98 wRC+, 91 RBIs, 11.2% BB, 21.3% K Gavin Sheets (125 G): .212/.313/.397 (.710 OPS), 16 2B, 17 HR, 102 wRC+, 11.7% BB, 20.3% K Padres Mission's Best Padres Hitters of the Year (2026) No. 3: CF Jackson Merrill 2026 Stats (158 G): .254/.303/.440 (.743 OPS), 26 2B, 5 3B, 26 HR, 27 SB, 105 wRC+, 6.4% BB, 21.8% K Jackson Merrill's 2026 season was very much a tale of two halves. The young center fielder struggled mightily during the first half of the season, posting just a .628 OPS and a 76 wRC+. But something clicked after the All-Star break, and Merrill looked much more like the hitter Padres fans expected to see. After the break, his OPS ballooned to .909, while his wRC+ jumped all the way to 148. He was logging an extra-base hit in nearly every other game during the second half, and he also cut his strikeout rate by more than two percentage points. That turnaround helped him finish the year with a .254/.303/.440 slash line, 26 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 27 stolen bases. The stolen bases added another element to a Padres lineup that had plenty of power, giving Merrill a way to impact games even when he wasn't driving the ball. Unfortunately for the center fielder, these rankings take the entire season into account. His second half was excellent, but his first half was simply too poor to overlook. If we're only looking at what Merrill did after the All-Star break, he would have a very strong case to move up this list. Instead, he lands at No. 3. No. 2: 1B Ty France 2026 Stats (133 G): .295/.363/.502 (.865 OPS), 24 2B, 21 HR, 141 wRC+, 7.4% BB, 21.6% K Ty France was one of the biggest surprises of the year for San Diego. After signing for “just” $1.35 million in February, France quickly settled in as the Padres' everyday first baseman. And boy, did they need his bat. He slashed .295/.363/.502 with 24 doubles and 21 home runs across 133 games, finishing the year with an .865 OPS and a 141 wRC+. His OPS mark led the team, and he quickly established himself as one of the most steady and reliable pieces in Craig Stammen's lineup. Much like Merrill and the player coming in at No. 1, France was even better in the second half, helping the Padres make their push toward the postseason. The difference, however, is that France was already very good before the All-Star break. His .815 first-half OPS was still that of a quality middle-of-the-lineup bat, whereas Merrill's .628 mark over the same stretch was borderline unplayable. France never had to completely reinvent himself. He was simply a consistently productive hitter from the beginning of the season through the end. I don't think anyone saw this kind of year coming from the veteran slugger when he signed in February. The Padres were looking for an affordable option at first base, and instead, they got one of their best offensive players. That performance earned France Hitter of the Year runner-up honors. Padres' Hitter of the Year: RF Fernando Tatis Jr. 2026 Stats (159 G): .289/.358/.470 (.828 OPS), 32 2B, 3 3B, 25 HR, 38 SB, 131 wRC+, 9.1% BB, 18.5% K Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't hit his first home run of the season until May 30. And yet, somehow, he still finished the year with 25 home runs and an OPS well above .800. He hit .289/.358/.470 with 32 doubles and three triples across 159 games. He also comfortably led the team with 38 stolen bases, giving him another way to impact the game even when the power wasn't quite there. And just like Merrill and France, Tatis really came alive in the second half. After posting a .713 OPS during the first half, that number skyrocketed to .996 after the All-Star break. In 64 second-half games, he hit 20 home runs and recorded 35 total extra-base hits while posting a 94.5 MPH average exit velocity. That's the version of the face of the franchise Padres fans were waiting for. While France's overall slash line was better than Tatis', as they say, the best ability is availability. It's not that France wasn't available, but Tatis missed just three games all season. That durability, combined with his production and ability to impact the game on the basepaths, makes him a fitting choice for this award. View full article

The San Diego Padres fought hard for a huge Game 3 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night, keeping their season alive and putting themselves in position to force a winner-takes-all Game 5. But the job is far from over. If the Padres are going to make that Game 5 a reality, they have to get it done once again tonight at Petco Park. There are obviously plenty of things that need to go right for San Diego to come away with another win, but one of the biggest could be forcing Milwaukee to turn to their bullpen sooner than they would like. There are multiple reasons why that could be so important. For one, the Brewers only got three innings out of Dustin May in Game 3. They had to piece together the final five innings with four different bullpen arms. That could have a pretty significant impact on Pat Murphy’s plans tonight, especially considering the varying workloads those relievers took on Tuesday. Abner Uribe threw just seven pitches, and Antonio Senzatela only needed 14. But D.L. Hall and JoJo Romero each threw around 30, altering the Game 4 picture. That doesn’t necessarily mean Hall and Romero won’t be available tonight, but Murphy may have to be a little more selective with how he uses them. And if San Diego can force Milwaukee to turn to those arms again, or just make Murphy burn through more of his bullpen earlier than he’d like, it could put the Brewers in a much more difficult spot as this series moves forward. There’s also the fact that, should the Padres force a Game 5 on Friday, it lines up perfectly for Jacob Misiorowski to take the mound for Milwaukee. Misiorowski threw 88 pitches in Game 1 on Saturday, meaning Friday would mark six days of rest between starts. That’s about as ideal of a setup as the Brewers could ask for with their young flamethrower, and it’s never exactly fun having to face the guy who sits around 101 MPH with a ton of run on his fastball, especially twice in the same series. At the same time, though, it’s difficult to have success against the same team twice in one week. The Padres already showed they can do some damage against Misiorowski, putting up two earned runs against him over four innings in Game 1. He certainly wasn't terrible, but he wasn't his usual dominant self, either. Getting Misiorowski on an island in Game 5 would be a much better scenario for San Diego than allowing Milwaukee to have their choice of fresh late-game arms available behind him. If the Padres can force the Brewers to use some of their best relievers tonight, they could potentially make the Game 5 pitching situation much more manageable. And there’s another wrinkle to all of this. If (hopefully when) San Diego wins tonight, there will be a travel day on Thursday as both teams head back to Milwaukee for Game 5. That means both bullpens will have a built-in day of rest heading into the deciding game. Pat Murphy has leaned heavily on his bullpen throughout this series, but the travel day means Milwaukee won't necessarily be punished for using some of those arms tonight. Instead, not getting to the Brewers' bullpen early could actually allow that group to enter Game 5 even fresher than it otherwise would have been. Fortunately for San Diego, there is reason to believe they can force the issue tonight. Craig Stammen has shown throughout the season that he’s not afraid to play the matchups, and Milwaukee has already used all of their right-handed starters through the first three games of this series. That could open the door for Stammen to really utilize San Diego's platoon options and force the Brewers to counter with some uncomfortable decisions of their own. With Robert Gasser grabbing the start tonight, expect a very right-handed-heavy lineup from the Padres. And once that starter exits, Stammen could lean on his bench early and often to keep those favorable matchups coming. The Padres don't necessarily need to score 10 runs or blow the game open in the first few innings. They just need to make Milwaukee uncomfortable. Make the Brewers burn through some of their bullpen, make Murphy use pitchers he would rather save, and force him to make decisions earlier than he wants to. Because the more work Milwaukee's bullpen has to do tonight, the more pressure could fall on Misiorowski if these teams meet again Friday. View full article

San Diego looked like a team in complete control against Chicago in the Wild Card, and there were a few clear reasons why. Those same strengths could determine how far the Padres go in October. View full video

The Wild Card Round couldn’t have gone much better for the San Diego Padres. They followed up an 8-0 win in Game 1 with a 4-1 victory last night, and for the entirety of the series, they just looked in control. From the pitching staff to the offense, the Padres got contributions from just about everywhere. Baseball is a team game, and these were a pair of team wins. So, here are a few of the things that led to San Diego’s success in the Wild Card Round, and what the Friars will need to continue doing if they’re going to take down the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS. Padres Must Keep Capitalizing on Opportunities For starters, the Padres did a really good job of capitalizing when they had opportunities. Across both games, San Diego went 5-for-11 with runners in scoring position. The Cubs, meanwhile, went just 2-for-15. That’s a pretty significant difference, and it was reflected on the scoreboard. In Game 2 especially, the Padres were able to take advantage of some early opportunities, and Chicago never recovered. Xander Bogaerts drove in a run with an RBI single, and Ethan Salas followed with a sacrifice fly to give San Diego a 2-0 lead. Then, Gavin Sheets delivered the biggest blow of the night. His two-out, two-run homer in the fourth inning completely stole any momentum the Cubs had built and put the Padres firmly in control. In the postseason, these are the kinds of moments that can completely flip a game upside down. A team can dominate for six innings, fail to capitalize on a couple of opportunities, and suddenly find themselves trailing because the other side took advantage of their chances. The Padres avoided that in the Wild Card Round, and if they’re going to take down the Brewers, they’ll need to continue doing the same thing. Padres' Pitching Takes Center Stage It also helps when your pitching staff holds the best offense in baseball to one combined run over two games. The Cubs came into this series having scored more runs than any team in the league, with 850 on the season. For a Padres pitching staff that, primarily in the starting rotation, had some inconsistencies throughout the year, this was quite the statement. Michael King was nothing short of brilliant in Game 1. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against one of the best lineups in baseball, allowing the Padres to cruise to an 8-0 victory while keeping their bullpen almost entirely out of the game. That turned out to be especially important heading into Game 2. Nick Pivetta was never going to be someone San Diego could realistically expect to work deep into the game, so having a fresh bullpen behind him was going to be crucial. And that’s exactly what the Padres had. Their bullpen combined for 5 2/3 scoreless innings last night, backing up a strong start. That’s a pretty good formula for postseason baseball. The Padres’ pitching staff deserves major credit for what it accomplished against the Cubs, and if the Friars are going to take down the No. 1 from Milwaukee, they're going to need more of the same. Padres' Offensive Game Plan Must Stay Consistent Against Brewers The last thing that really impressed me about the Padres was how aggressively selective their offense was. I don’t know if that’s actually a term, but if it’s not, it should be. The Cubs’ starting pitchers were fairly efficient in this series. Matthew Boyd made it through four innings on just 58 pitches, while Kevin Gausman lasted 3 1/3 innings on 51 pitches. Based on those pitch counts, both starters were on track to potentially work fairly deep into their respective games. The Padres’ bats didn’t let them. San Diego didn’t seem interested in simply running up the pitch count for the sake of running up the pitch count. When the Padres got a pitch they could hit, they were aggressive. And when they didn’t, they were willing to wait. That approach clearly worked. They hit more home runs in the series (four) than they drew walks (three), and they essentially killed two birds with one stone. They got the Cubs’ starting pitchers out of the game earlier than Craig Counsell probably wanted, forcing the bullpen to cover a significant portion of both games. But they jumped on mistakes early in counts as well. The Padres didn’t need to manufacture a ton of offense against the Cubs. They simply took advantage of the opportunities that were presented to them, and the result was a lineup that significantly outperformed the best offense in baseball during the regular season. Now, the job is far from finished for the Padres. They’ll head to Milwaukee this weekend to kick off the NLDS against what was the best team in baseball this year. But they have the formula to pull off the upset, which might just earn them a date with the Dodgers in the NLCS. View full article

Game 1 of the Wild Card Round is in the books, and the San Diego Padres couldn’t have asked for a better start to the series. After a dominant 8-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs last night, the Padres are firmly in the driver’s seat. They are now just one win away from advancing to the NLDS, where they would face the Milwaukee Brewers. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still work to be done. A loss tonight would send the series to a winner-takes-all Game 3, completely changing the complexion of the matchup. So with that in mind, here are a few things San Diego must do tonight in order to win the series and avoid a rubber match. Craig Stammen Must Have A Short Leash With Nick Pivetta Most importantly, the Padres cannot leave Nick Pivetta out there for too long. And don’t get me wrong, that’s no slight at Pivetta. He’s pitched very well since coming off the injured list and has given the Friars exactly what they've needed from him down the stretch. But there are a couple of reasons why San Diego shouldn’t ask too much of him tonight. For one, Pivetta has made just four starts since returning from the IL, with none of those outings lasting longer than five innings. This isn’t a situation where the Padres should expect him to suddenly turn into a seven-inning workhorse. And perhaps more importantly, the bullpen is fresh. If San Diego can get five strong innings out of Pivetta tonight, I think that’s a massive success. But I’ll take four quality innings over working into the fifth or sixth when he doesn’t need to. The Padres have the bullpen to cover the rest of the game. There’s no reason to push their starter beyond his limits simply because it’s a playoff game. Padres Must Wear Kevin Gausman Down Early As for the bats, the biggest thing I want to see tonight is patience and selectivity at the plate. Kevin Gausman will take the mound for Chicago, although there was some speculation about whether or not he would actually be able to make the start. He injured his left shoulder last week, and while it’s his non-throwing shoulder, it’s entirely possible that he could be working under some sort of pitch restriction tonight. The Padres also knocked Matthew Boyd out after just four innings last night, forcing Chicago into a heavy bullpen game. The Cubs will have some of their high-leverage arms available for an elimination game, but that doesn’t mean San Diego should make things easy for them. Make them go to those relievers earlier than they’d prefer. And when those relievers enter the game, make them work, too. The Padres don’t need to come out swinging at everything just because they scored eight runs last night. If anything, I’d like to see the offense be patient and selective above all else. Run up those pitch counts. Get Gausman into uncomfortable counts, force Chicago to dig deeper into its bullpen, and make every at-bat competitive. The Padres already have the advantage in this series. They don’t need to chase pitches or try to force the offense. If they can consistently put pressure on the Cubs’ pitching staff, the opportunities should come. Bullpen Creativity Goes A Long Way In San Diego And then lastly, be smart with the bullpen. As I alluded to earlier, it’ll likely be a pretty heavy bullpen game for San Diego, assuming Pivetta doesn’t work super deep. With this bullpen, that’s not at all a bad thing. Yuki Matsui and Joe Musgrove were the only Padres relievers to pitch last night, and each threw just one inning. That means San Diego has a very fresh bullpen heading into Game 2. Because of that, they can kind of pick and choose the matchups they want to deploy their arms in. Mason Miller is the best ninth-inning arm in baseball, but if this is a one-run game in the seventh inning with the heart of Chicago’s order coming up, maybe that’s where you go to him. Why wait? If Miller can get the biggest outs of the game in the seventh, the Padres would likely still be able to turn to Adrián Morejón and Bradgley Rodriguez to cover the eighth and ninth. Another possibility could be if San Diego finds themselves in a tight game in the fifth or sixth inning with the top of the Cubs’ lineup coming up. Last night, Chicago led off with Pete Crow-Armstrong, with fellow lefty Michael Busch hitting third. Perhaps that’s a spot where you turn to Morejón earlier than you normally would and try to take advantage of the matchup. There’s no reason to be overly rigid with the traditional bullpen roles tonight. The Padres have a lead in the series and thus, a chance to end this thing tonight. That gives Craig Stammen a lot of flexibility, and it’ll be up to him to use that flexibility to shut the door on a desperate Cubs team. View full article

We’ve made it. The postseason is finally here, and after a season in which it looked like the San Diego Padres might not even make it to October, they’ll be hosting the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card Round. Now, the Padres have a chance to make all of those ups and downs worth it. They’ll have home-field advantage for the series, but Game 1 will be especially important. Whoever comes out on top will be just one win away from advancing, while the losing team will have to play perfect ball over the next two games to avoid being eliminated. With that in mind, there are a few matchups that could ultimately decide who takes the first game of the series. Michael King vs. Cubs Lineup We have to start with Michael King against the Cubs’ lineup. There’s a reason Chicago is going to be such a difficult opponent for the Padres. The Cubs scored 850 runs during the regular season, the most of any team in baseball, and they have plenty of different ways to hurt an opposing pitching staff. They’re led by likely National League MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong, who posted a 40-40 campaign and dominated every facet of the game this season. But the Cubs aren’t simply a one-man offense. Seiya Suzuki, Alex Bregman and Michael Busch are all capable of flipping a game upside down with one swing, while Michael Conforto and Matt Shaw have been swinging a hot bat lately as well. There’s plenty of depth throughout the lineup, meaning King won’t have much room for mistakes. The right-hander has never started against the Cubs in his career. He’s faced them twice, but both appearances came in relief during his time with the New York Yankees. His first start against Chicago will come when the stakes are high. Pitching wins games in the postseason, and if San Diego is going to start the Wild Card Round with a victory, they’ll need a strong performance from their ace against the best offense in baseball this season. Padres Offense vs. Cubs Bullpen After that, we have to look at the Padres’ offense against Chicago’s bullpen. For as red-hot as the Cubs’ offense has been this season, their bullpen hasn’t been quite as consistent. There are some quality arms in Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn who have been pitching well recently, but other names such as Ryan Rolison and Jacob Webb have been trending in the wrong direction. That could give the Padres an opportunity, especially if they can get into Chicago’s bullpen relatively early. Across their six regular-season matchups, the Padres scored 10 runs in 20 innings against the Cubs’ bullpen. Obviously, this isn’t exactly the same group they had earlier in the season, and regular-season results don’t necessarily carry over into October. Still, it shows that the Friars are capable of putting together productive at-bats against a middling group of relievers. The Padres have one of the biggest postseason strengths in baseball on their side when it comes to the bullpen. Their depth gives them plenty of options late in games, but that only matters if they have a lead to protect. Now, it’s on the offense to give that bullpen something to work with. Who Capitalizes With Runners in Scoring Position? The difference between winning and losing in the postseason can come down to one or two runs, and those runs often come from capitalizing when opportunities present themselves. A team can put together plenty of good at-bats, but if you leave runners stranded when you have a chance to score, you can find yourself in trouble. On the season, the Padres have the seventh-highest OPS in baseball with runners in scoring position at .768. The Cubs, meanwhile, rank 18th with a .748 OPS in those situations. That doesn’t guarantee anything in Game 1, but it does provide some context for how the two offenses have performed when they’ve had opportunities to drive in runs. If the home team is going to get the job done, they need to capitalize on those opportunities. And just as importantly, the Padres need to prevent Chicago from doing the same. That’s where having a deep bullpen could come in handy. There are plenty of arms available, meaning the Padres can be selective about who they use depending on the matchup. If a particular hitter or pocket of the Cubs’ lineup presents a difficult challenge, San Diego has the flexibility to make a move. And if one reliever gets into trouble, there are plenty of other options available to try to get out of the inning. Of course, all of this could change depending on how the starters perform. King could dominate the Cubs’ lineup and make much of this irrelevant. The Cubs could also get to him early and force the Padres to rely on their bullpen for a significant portion of the game. The same is true on the other side. But eventually, there’s a good chance both teams will find themselves in a situation where they need a big hit with runners in scoring position. In a postseason game between two teams capable of making a run, those late-game scoring chances could ultimately be the difference between winning and losing. For the Padres, the formula is fairly simple: get a strong start from King, take advantage of the Cubs’ bullpen, and capitalize when opportunities arise. If they can do that, they’ll put themselves in a good position to take the first game of the series and move one step closer to advancing. View full article

Around the time of the trade deadline, a lot of people expected the San Diego Padres to be sellers. Bullpen arms like Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon were some of the biggest names floated around as possible trade candidates, but in the end, the Friars decided to be buyers. One of the additions A.J. Preller made was starting pitcher Robbie Ray, who came over from the division rival San Francisco Giants. Ray had been having a quality season with the Giants, posting a 3.08 ERA across 122 2/3 innings before the trade. While he’s obviously not the same pitcher who won the AL Cy Young Award back in 2021, he looked like someone who could provide the Padres with some valuable innings as they pushed toward the postseason. Fast-forward to late September, and San Diego is in a pretty good position. The Padres have a four-game lead for the final Wild Card spot, and if they can put together a strong final week of the regular season, they could even wind up hosting a Wild Card matchup. However, Ray hasn’t exactly been a major reason for that success since arriving in San Diego. Through his first 39 2/3 innings with the Padres, Ray owns a 5.22 ERA. He’s walked 26 batters compared to just 31 strikeouts, while also allowing seven home runs. His 5.87 FIP is even worse than his already uninspiring ERA, which raises an important question: Assuming the team holds onto its playoff spot, what exactly should Ray’s role be in October? It’s a tough question, especially considering the Padres’ other major pitching addition at the trade deadline, Casey Mize, is in a pretty similar position. But if I were making the decision, I think Ray would be best suited for a shorter, four-to-five-inning role. For as rough as his overall numbers have been, there’s a pretty interesting split hiding underneath them. The first time through an opposing lineup, Ray has posted a 2.92 ERA. You’ll take that all day long, especially from a pitcher who doesn’t necessarily need to be your ace or your Game 1 starter. The second time through, his ERA rises slightly to 3.15. That’s obviously a little worse, but it’s still a very strong number for a middle-to-back-end starter. At that point, Ray has already given the Padres what they need from him. But the third time through the order is where things really start to unravel. Ray’s ERA jumps all the way to 6.55 in those situations, and his strikeout rate drops from around 22% the first two times through the lineup to just 10%. Even more concerning, he’s actually walking more batters than he’s striking out once opposing hitters get that third look at him. That’s a problem. It’s certainly not unusual for pitchers to perform worse the more times hitters see them. There’s a reason managers are constantly monitoring pitch counts, times through the order, and how a pitcher looks the second or third time around. Hitters get more familiar with a pitcher’s arsenal, and the margin for error gets smaller. But the sheer difference in Ray’s numbers is what stands out. That’s why I think the Padres should be careful about trying to squeeze too much length out of Ray in the postseason. If San Diego gets into a playoff series, I’d be perfectly comfortable with Ray starting a game and going four or five frames. Let him face the lineup twice, assuming he’s pitching effectively, and then turn the game over to the bullpen. That approach would allow the Padres to get the best version of Ray without putting him in situations where his biggest weaknesses become more exposed. And let’s be honest, if the Padres are going to make a serious postseason run, their bullpen is going to have to be a big reason why. The Friars made the decision to be buyers at the trade deadline for a reason. The team clearly believes they have enough pitching depth to make a postseason push, and leaning on the strength of the roster is never a bad idea. There’s no reason to ask Ray to eat huge chunks of innings if the Padres have other arms capable of taking over once he reaches the point where hitters are seeing him for a third time. That doesn’t mean Ray should be treated like someone the Padres can’t trust. Quite the opposite, actually. They just need to make sure they don’t ask him to be something he isn’t anymore. View full article

The Padres traded for Robbie Ray expecting him to help their postseason push, but his first few weeks in San Diego haven’t gone according to plan. There may still be a way to get the most out of the veteran lefty in October. View full video

With the Minor League Baseball season starting to wrap up, now feels like a good time to zoom out and look at the San Diego Padres’ farm system as a whole. There was a lot of action across the organization this year, whether it was prospects making their way to the major leagues, players being moved at the trade deadline, or young players taking another step in their development. Some players and teams took advantage of their opportunities, while others struggled to find the consistency they were looking for. So with that, let’s take a look at some of the biggest winners and losers from the Padres’ farm system this year, starting with the winners. Padres' Biggest Farm System Winners (2026) The biggest winner, in my opinion, has to be the Padres’ Single-A affiliate, the Lake Elsinore Storm. The Storm dominated over the first half of their season, finishing with a 39-27 record. That was good enough to win the California League South Division and earn a spot in the postseason, putting Lake Elsinore in position to make a run at a championship. Things didn’t go quite as smoothly during the second half of the season, but the Storm managed to rally when it mattered most. They won their first round matchup against the Dodgers’ Single-A affiliate, the Ontario Tower Buzzers, and toppled San Jose to win the California League for the fifth time in franchise history. Considering how the second half played out, it's amazing that the Storm were able to rally to win the title. Lake Elsinore put themselves in a great position during the first half, and when the pressure ramped up in the postseason, the Storm found a way to deliver. That makes them an easy choice as one of the biggest winners in the Padres’ farm system this year. The other big winner for me is outfield prospect Alex McCoy. McCoy began the season outside of Padres Mission’s top 20 prospects, but he has completely changed his standing within the organization over the course of the year. He currently sits at number eight on that list, and it’s easy to see why after looking at what he accomplished. Across 123 games between High-A and Double-A, McCoy produced 51 extra-base hits and 24 stolen bases while posting an .822 OPS. That’s a pretty impressive combination of power and speed, especially for a player who entered the season without much prospect recognition. There are still some bat-to-ball concerns that McCoy will need to work through. His strikeout tendencies are something worth monitoring as he continues to climb the minor-league ladder, and that could ultimately determine how much of his offensive production carries over against major league pitching. But man, if he can get those concerns even slightly under control, the tools are there to eventually make a difference at the major-league level. Going from outside the top 20 prospects to number eight in the span of one season is a pretty significant jump, and McCoy has given the organization another interesting young outfielder to keep an eye on moving forward. Padres' Biggest Farm System Losers (2026) As for the losers, we’re going with the Padres’ High-A, Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. Unlike Lake Elsinore, it was not a particularly good year for Fort Wayne, San Antonio or El Paso. The three levels collectively went 173-229, and none of them qualified for the playoffs. Obviously, there is some context needed here. Some of those struggles can be attributed to the players San Diego traded away around the deadline, which naturally changed the makeup of several of these rosters. There are also going to be plenty of ups and downs at the minor=league level as prospects move between teams and organizations try to balance development with winning. But regardless of the reasoning, it still wasn’t a good year for any of these three affiliates. When your Single-A affiliate is making a deep postseason run while the three levels above it all miss the playoffs, that’s certainly an interesting contrast. It doesn’t necessarily mean the Padres’ farm system is in bad shape, but it does show that there were some clear struggles once you got beyond Lake Elsinore. The other loser I’ll mention is Padres pitching prospect Jagger Haynes. This was supposed to be an important year for Haynes, but the performance simply wasn’t there. He opened the season as San Diego’s number six prospect, but he currently sits at number 13. Haynes posted a 4.37 ERA at Double-A San Antonio, but that number jumped all the way to 6.55 once he was promoted to Triple-A. The promotion itself is obviously a good sign, as the Padres still believed he was ready for the challenge, but the underlying numbers took a pretty sharp step backward. His strikeout rate dropped to just 17.5%, while his walk rate hovered around 12%. Across both levels, his overall strikeout-to-walk ratio finished below two-to-one, which is not the kind of performance you want to see from one of your organization’s top pitching prospects. That doesn’t mean Haynes should suddenly be written off. He’s still fairly young and will turn 24 this weekend, giving him plenty of time to figure things out. Pitching development is rarely a straight line, and a difficult season can sometimes be part of the process. Still, this wasn’t the year the Padres wanted from Haynes. View full article

The jump from Triple-A to the major leagues is a tough adjustment for any young player, and the San Diego Padres’ top prospect, catcher Ethan Salas, is finding that out the hard way. Now before we get too far, it’s worth noting that we’re dealing with a very small sample here. Salas has only logged 17 major league plate appearances since being called up earlier this month, so there’s obviously not enough data to draw any meaningful conclusions about his future. But there hasn’t been a whole lot of success in those 17 trips to the plate. Salas has gone 1-for-17 in that span with no walks and seven strikeouts. His lone hit was a triple, and it would’ve been a home run at a handful of ballparks. But while you should definitely take any data in this small of a sample with a grain of salt, it’s not pretty. Just three of the 10 balls he’s put in play have been hard-hit. He’s also chasing out of the zone a lot more than he did in the minors, while making far less contact when he does so. After striking out in just 14.3% of his minor-league plate appearances this season, that number is up to 41.2% in his first cup of coffee in the majors. Although this is far from the start any of us were hoping for, it’s important to remember who we’re talking about here. Salas turned 20 in June. For probably 99.9% of professional baseball players, they’re not even sniffing the major leagues at that age. Let alone a catcher, where you have to be able to call the game and be in control of the diamond at a very high level. Catchers often take a while to work their way through the minor leagues because of everything they have to learn and manage at the position. Salas, meanwhile, has already worked his way through the minors and is now getting his first taste of major league baseball at just 20 years old. That’s not normal. It’s also worth remembering that we’ve already seen Salas have success against high-level pitching as recently as a few weeks ago. After being promoted to Triple-A El Paso, Salas posted a .949 OPS over 24 games. He also had 11 extra-base hits and walked more times than he struck out, showing a very well-rounded approach at the plate. That’s pretty much everything the Padres could have asked for from him at the highest level of minor-league baseball, and he can’t even buy himself a beer for nine more months. Again, that’s not normal. There’s a reason Salas has been regarded as one of the top prospects in baseball for so long. The Padres have watched him handle every challenge they’ve thrown his way at an extremely young age, and he has continued to move through the organization at a remarkable pace. Major-league pitchers are going to expose weaknesses that minor-league pitchers might not. They’re going to attack the strike zone differently, execute pitches more consistently, and force young hitters to make adjustments. Salas is getting his first look at that right now, and it hasn’t gone particularly well. But there’s a big difference between struggling in your first 17 plate appearances and struggling over an entire season. There’s an even bigger difference between struggling at 20 years old and struggling as an established major-league player. That’s why I don’t think there’s any reason to overreact to what we’ve seen from Salas so far. Obviously, the strikeout and chase numbers are worth monitoring as Salas gets more opportunities. If those issues continue over a much larger sample, then it will be fair to start looking more closely at what’s going wrong. But we’re nowhere near that point yet. San Diego doesn’t need him to take over the starting catcher duties for a playoff hopeful team right now. They don’t even need him to be the backup. This is about getting him a taste of what major league pitching looks like before he’s eventually thrust into a much more impactful role. View full article