Padres Free Agency Wish List: Freddy Peralta Is Better Equipped to Replace Michael King Than Most

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Freddy Peralta’s look from the Tampa Bay Rays’ dugout said more than a thousand words when Brice Turang picked up Richie Palacios’ ground ball, threw to Jake Bauers’ glove to get the final out, and the Milwaukee Brewers jumped out of the dugout to celebrate the first World Series title in franchise history. Peralta had been there with the Brewers during the first eight seasons of his career, became the rotation’s leading pitcher and one of the players most loved by the fan base, until he was traded to the New York Mets in January 2026.

His time in New York was a disaster, to the point of finishing with an unrecognizable 4.99 ERA—although his xERA did not move that far away from his usual level, at 3.86—in 22 starts before being traded to the Rays at the deadline. Peralta kept working and, under the supervision of Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder and one of the best analytical and scouting departments in baseball, quickly readjusted several aspects of his game. He altered his mechanics at the point of release, improved his push toward the plate, and increased his use of the changeup, which became a key weapon for generating swings and misses.

The results were surprising, as he had a 3.25 ERA in 10 regular-season starts with the Rays before winning the ALCS MVP. From August 10 onward, counting his outings in the postseason, Peralta finished with a 7-3 record and a 2.46 ERA, completing at least five innings in six of his nine starts. The change erased part of the doubts his time in New York had left behind and has put him in a very good position to enter free agency as one of the most coveted starting pitchers on the market.

He is one of only two starters who have made at least 30 starts for four consecutive years. From a pure baseball perspective, I would like to see him stay in Tampa, but I am not sure they can financially afford a signing at the level that signing him now would involve.

For teams like the San Diego Padres, who might lose Michael King and declined Nick Pivetta’s club option, Peralta could fit perfectly into the rotation. Among free-agent starters, Peralta has the fifth-highest fWAR, at 5.5 over the past two years. He is projected to seek a contract of at least five years and $140 million, equivalent to $28 million annually.

The investment would really be worth it. With his average of almost six innings per start over the last four seasons and the consistency Peralta has shown, his projections should improve even more by having the backing of one of the most dominant bullpens in all of baseball right now. The right-hander finished fifth in the 2025 National League Cy Young Award voting and has led the league since 2023 with 127 starts, tied with Logan Webb and Dylan Cease. Over that span, he has allowed the third-lowest BABIP (.271) and has the third-highest number of wins (50) among qualified pitchers with at least 600 innings.

Despite carrying a poor start in New York, Peralta finished in the 81st percentile in barrel%, and his expected statistics were still strong, including finishes in the 63rd percentile in xSLG and the 62nd in xERA. He still generates swings and misses and chases at an above-average rate, too.

A 30-year-old who is famously reliant on his fastball probably isn't the safest bet in the world, but the Padres need a frontline starting pitcher in the worst way this offseason. Even if it takes a slight overpay, acquiring Peralta would go a long way toward keeping the Friars competitive in the NL West.

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