Padres Free Agency Wish List: Clay Holmes Fits Like A Glove In San Diego

[Randy Holt]

It doesn't need to be belabored—the San Diego Padres are in dire need of help in the rotation this offseason. Considering the (likely) departures of Michael King, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, and Casey Mize in free agency (to say nothing of the declining of Nick Pivetta's club option) the team is at a point where they simply don't have enough bodies to fill out a rotation, let alone field one of high quality. 

As such, they're going to be one of the more active teams both in free agency and in the trade market. A rotation currently comprised of Joe Musgrove, Randy Vásquez, and a void can't afford for the front office to address this need with haphazard hopes; there has to be actual certainty added to the starting five for the Friars to stand any chance in 2027.

The situation is so bleak that it makes almost anyone that can get through roughly five innings a "fit" for the Padres. But if we're considering genuinely good fits for the team's starting five, Clay Holmes may stand as the most ideal of targets. 

Holmes is coming off something of a mixed year, but that's a status almost exclusively due to the stretch of time from May to August he missed with a broken leg sustained from a comebacker. On either side of the injury, he was quite good. Across 18 starts (101.1 innings), he nearly matched his career-best in fWAR (1.8) and put together a 3.29 ERA & 3.63 FIP.

While the performance itself—in addition to the fact that Holmes is 33 but only in his second year as a major-league starter, indicating fewer miles on his arm—is strong, there are two primary traits that make Holmes the ideal fit for the Padres this winter. They are illustrated by the two following numbers: 

• Barrel Rate: 4.4 percent (93rd Percentile)
• Groundball Rate: 60.8 percent (99th Percentile)

Holmes is predominantly a sinker-baller. He threw the pitch 49 percent of the time in 2026 and at a 41 percent clip in 2025. He uses a blend of a sweeper and a changeup to complement the pitch, using the combination to both minimize hard contact and get opposing hitters to put the ball on the ground at a pretty gaudy rate. If that sounds familiar, it's likely because the Padres just watched Michael King undergo an evolution last year that had him showcasing this exact type of skill set. 

There are a few benefits to this style of pitching. One is the fact that working off contact rather than relying on strikeouts helps in the longevity game. Holmes averaged 5.6 innings per start this past season, which is a dynamic the Padres absolutely need in their rotation as the bullpen gets just a bit more shallow following a couple of key departures. Another is embedded in the idea that the team actually has the infrastructure to support a pitcher of this type; some of that will rely on Gold Glove finalist Ty France returning, but the Padres were above average in terms of infield defense this past season. 

A third benefit lies in the contract. Most projections for Holmes land in the two or three-year range at roughly $20 million a year (give or take). That's an enticing (and affordable) cost for an arm that will offer as much stability as Holmes can. 

He's not going to be a number one starter, of course. But the fact that Holmes has the chops to anchor a rotation through his longevity from start-to-start, coupled with what figures to be a reasonable contract, makes him a perfect option to augment what little starting talent the Padres already have in place.

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