Dylan Cease’s Recent Outings Add Uncertainty To The Postseason Rotation

The last few remaining days of the regular season will be crucial for the San Diego Padres. As of September 25, they trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.5 games for the three seed and home-field advantage over whoever claims the final Wild Card spot. The Padres would prefer that scenario over traveling to the north side of Chicago to take on the Cubs. The Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are one game out of the final spot, and the Dodgers will travel to Seattle to play the Mariners, who have secured the AL West but are still competing for a bye in the Wild Card round.

For the three-game Wild Card series, the Padres will send Nick Pivetta and Randy Vásquez to the mound, but the third spot is a question mark. Dylan Cease has made this decision a difficult one for manager Mike Shildt. Cease has struggled all season, throwing 168 innings, posting a 4.55 ERA, and a 215:71 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but in three of his last four outings, the righty has allowed one run, and he has gone at least five innings. The only exception is a game against the Chicago White Sox, where he gave up four earned runs.

Michael King will be the other choice, but he hasn't looked himself since a nerve injury that sent him to the injury list on May 18. Before the injury, he looked like an ace, starting 10 games and posting a 2.59 ERA. In 7 2/3 August innings, King posted an 8.22 ERA, but he's been solid in 21 1/3 innings in September, posting a 2.53 ERA with an 18:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The 30-year-old is slated to throw Saturday against the Diamondbacks, so his starting or not will give us the idea of the Padres' intentions for the Wild Card rotation. If he pitches, he'd only have four days of rest, which is unlikely given his recent injury history.

There is one way Cease could be a lock for a Wild Card start, though. If the Padres are still within reach of the three seed on the last day of the regular season, Pivetta is slotted to start that game, which would likely remove him from the Wild Card round unless the Padres have him throw on three days of rest. This scenario is highly unlikely without the Dodgers choking since they also own the tiebreaker.

It makes sense for Cease to move to the bullpen for the Wild Card round to be a long reliever if needed, although the bullpen has been solid all season, ranking first in MLB in ERA (3.05). So we could see Cease left off the Wild Card roster unless an injury occurs. The Padres may choose this option to avoid disrupting the flow the bullpen has developed.

If the Padres advance to the ALDS, they will likely head to Milwaukee, and Cease would get one of the four starting rotation spots because Yu Darvish has struggled since returning in July from a right elbow inflammation injury. In 67 innings, Darvish has a 5.51 ERA and a 64:17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, the rotation falls, Cease has done enough lately to have his name being talked about as a Wild Card possibility.