Mason Miller Is Nearing A Career-High Workload. How Should the Padres Navigate Their Overused Bullpen Down the Stretch?

With September approaching and Mason Miller having logged 56⅓ innings, less than 10 frames of his career high (65) including the playoffs, there are several questions facing the San Diego Padres. Should they manage Miller’s workload a little more carefully? Or is it worth taking the necessary risks to win games?

Miller is second in the National League with 32 saves, a 0.896 ERA, a 0.87 FIP and 3.2 fWAR. His imposing fastball is averaging 101.4 mph, and he has an absurd strikeout rate of 16.31 batters per nine innings. Miller is also the reliever with the most games finished (47) in the National League, another indication of his heavy workload. If the Padres’ plan is to give him rest whenever possible, lightening his workload could keep the right-hander much more prepared to face October. However, it is inevitable to think about the risk the bullpen would face when he is unavailable.

At a postgame press conference earlier this month after Bradgley Rodriguez handled a save opportunity, manager Craig Stammen said that “there is absolutely nothing wrong with Mason. This was simply a matter of rest.” He also praised Rodriguez’s ability: “He’s going to get some opportunities here when Mason can’t pitch. We also have other guys in the bullpen: Adrián [Morejon], Jeremiah [Estrada], Jason [Adam] and all of them are capable of pitching the ninth inning."

The Padres’ bullpen depth has been decisive throughout the season. They have the second-most innings pitched (565) in the National League and lead all of MLB with 7.5 fWAR. Miller and Morejón (2.3) have been the main pillars, combining for 5.5, followed by Rodriguez with 1.3. If we add Wandy Peralta to the equation, this is the result of the heavy workload each of them has carried:

-Miller: 56 ⅓ innings (65 in 2024); six games below last season’s career high.
-Morejón: 72 innings (73 2/3 last year); 14 fewer games than last year.
-Peralta: 64 innings (71 ⅔ last year); 16 fewer games.
-Rodriguez: 58 innings (45 ⅓ between the minor leagues and the Padres); 14 more games.

That summary leads us to think about a bigger problem, since this is not just about Miller’s workload. Morejón, Peralta and Rodriguez have also accumulated a large number of innings and appearances, so they are also very likely to receive some rest.

From there, the big question is how much risk the Padres will take when Miller is unavailable. And not all the answers are in the bullpen. The pitching analysis should begin with the starters. Throughout the season, the team has leaned on the bullpen because of the inconsistency of its rotation. The Padres still have the third-worst average innings per start, at 4⅓ per game. At the same time, they have the third-highest percentage of starters (41%) who do not reach 80 pitches. In other words, literally, the bullpen has carried the bulk of the outs every day.

My colleagues @Steve Drumwright and @Randy Holt have insisted on the Padres Mission podcast about the need for the Padres’ starters to be able to deliver deep outings. Since Aug. 3, when Casey Mize and Robbie Ray arrived following the trade deadline, San Diego starters have covered 110 innings over 21 games, good for about 5.2 per start. Although Mize and Ray have had their lumps with the Friars, there is already a slight improvement in the rotation’s durability.

We also shouldn’t rule out the offense becoming a turning point; since the deadline, the Padres are fifth in team wRC+ (110). That said, I see no reason to think that Miller’s rest, along with that of some of the other top relievers, is going to cause chaos. Between the seventh and ninth innings, the Padres have allowed the lowest slugging percentage (.334) in the entire league, tied with the Milwaukee Brewers’ pitchers. The bullpen’s only vulnerable point has come when relievers face the opposing lineup for a second time, allowing a .319/.391/.566 offensive line, with the fourth-highest OPS+ (145) in the entire league.

So, even with Miller receiving more rest and likely taking turns with Morejón and Rodriguez to close out games, the most concerning point I see here remains the starting pitching. If they can go deeper and the offense continues to produce in clutch situations, the Padres will remain a strong contender heading into October.