Padres' Walker Buehler Is Still Elite At Handling Pressure In High-Leverage Situations

If we stop only at Walker Buehler’s 4.66 ERA, it would be enough to worry us down the stretch, with the San Diego Padres fighting for a Wild Card spot. I don’t like to blame ERA, though, since no statistic can tell the entire story of a pitcher in a single number.

Buehler’s case is very interesting. Despite his high ERA, the Padres are 18-9 in games he has started. If we take away his three worst consecutive starts of the entire season, when he allowed 20 runs in 11 innings between July 1 and July 11, his ERA drops to 3.59. At that point, it gets pretty close to the 3.19 ERA he has posted over 42 ⅓ innings in his last eight starts.

His inconsistencies in July reflected the problems that have followed the right-hander: his inability to stay ahead in the count and the problems that have affected his fastball and changeup. As the season has progressed, his strategy has changed. In April, the slider was his main weapon under pressure in decisive counts. Then, the sweeper took that place. In June, he switched to the cutter. In July, he went back to the slider after allowing three home runs and a .758 xSLG with the changeup. In August, his knuckle curve took control, while the sinker returned to dominating.

In August, hitters posted a 32.7 O-Swing% against Buehler, his highest rate in any month this season. The overall results were encouraging, as he allowed the second-lowest wOBA (.308) of the entire year—only behind the .305 he allowed in June. But nothing summarizes Buehler’s season as a starter this year better than his performances when the pressure is highest. That was one of his best characteristics as a Dodgers pitcher, and it still seems that he can get an extra gear in the biggest moments.

I extended the research I started when I wrote about Michael King’s improvements last week, and Buehler’s results really surprised me. I chose only the games involving teams that, if the regular season ended today, would have secured a direct postseason or Wild Card spot in the National League. They would be: the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.

I chose all the games between them and filtered for pitchers who have faced at least 120 batters. There are 16 pitchers who meet that criterion.

Take a look at the xFIP leaders:

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 2.34

Chris Sale (ATL), 2.58

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD), 2.64

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI), 2.71

Kyle Harrison (MIL), 3.44

Michael King (SDP), 3.71

Shota Imanaga (CHC), 3.71

Bryce Elder (ATL), 3.71

Most of the Game 1 postseason starters are in that top eight. There are other pitchers like Zack Wheeler (3.45) and Shane Drohan (3.19) who have been dominant, but they did not qualify because they have not faced enough batters. Now comes the point that will probably surprise you. Among so many top-level pitchers, Buehler also has a place when it comes to pitching under pressure.

Behind Miz, Buehler is the pitcher with the lowest batting average allowed and, even more strikingly, the lowest BABIP (.214) on the entire list. He has done it so far by leaving the opposition with the lowest line-drive rate (9.8%) in the group while still getting himself into trouble: he trails only Roki Sasaki (12.4 BB%) with a 12.3 BB% rate.

Buehler has pitched at this level by solving many difficult situations, but also by getting himself into trouble because of his lack of command. Even so, he has not shied away from the toughest moments, holding the opposition to a .214/.267/.429 line in high-leverage situations.

In 18 of his 27 starts, Buehler has completed at least five innings. In 21 instances, he has allowed three or fewer runs. He has been a more reliable arm than his peripheral numbers show. And, most importantly of all, he continues to show that he can compete under pressure. At this point in the season, that ability is what the Padres need most if they want to compete in October.