The Padres Need To Be More Aggressive On The Basepaths

The Padres have been one of the most mediocre base-running teams in MLB this season, and the squad needs to make an adjustment because they are currently losing games on the bases. 

San Diego is 16th in MLB at -1.1 BsR (FanGraphs Baserunning Outs Above Average). With athletes like Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Xander Bogaerts on the team, there is potential for the Padres to move up the ranks. This improvement could be vital, given the roster's struggles with injuries. 

Starting with the positives, Tatis is an excellent baserunner. His health will make or break the rest of the Padres' season on the bases. So far in 2025, he leads San Diego in:

• 27 SB
• 4.9 BsR (13th in MLB)
• 3 Baserunning Runs (t-26th in MLB)
• 3 Runs Via Extra Bases Taken (t-10th in MLB)
• 1 Run Via 3rd base SB (t-3rd in MLB)

He has some nice numbers, but Tatis still isn’t part of the elite group that can carry a team on the bases (Elly De La Cruz/Bobby Witt Jr/Byron Buxton/Corbin Carroll/Trea Turner). 

Besides Tatis, Bogaerts, and Merrill are positive value runners with a 1.4 BsR and 1.2 BsR, respectively. Despite the positive value, these numbers are underwhelming. Two of San Diego’s best athletes shouldn’t be outperformed on the base paths by players such as:

• Juan Soto (1.4 BsR)
• Josh Smith (1.5 BsR)
• Mike Yastrzemski (1.7 BsR) 

Outside of the top three, nobody in the lineup has brought much value on the bases. Brandon Lockridge had solid bench legs (1.2 BsR / 1 Baserunning Run), but he's now on the Brewers.

The player with the most to gain from improved baserunning is Luis Arraez. At the moment, his contact abilities don’t bring much to the lineup, but if he can start causing havoc on the bases, that will exponentially improve his value as a player. 

Arraez has the potential to become a factor on the basepaths; he’s second on the team with 53 advance attempts, meaning the aggressive instincts are there. On the other hand, his six total stolen base advance attempts mean that aggressiveness hasn’t translated to base stealing. 

On the season, here’s what Arraez’s legs have produced:

• 9 SB
• 0.0 BsR
• 0 Baserunning Runs
• 53 Total Advance Attempts
• 6 SB Advance Attempts
• 47 XB Advance Attempts

San Diego also benefited from some base-running improvements at the trade deadline. They didn’t add any speedsters; however, they did replace some of their weakest baserunning positions with mediocre runners. The Padres' overall base running ranks should increase as these new acquisitions get more playing time. 

Martin Maldonado (-2.0 BsR) replaced by Freddie Fermin (0.1 BsR)

Gavin Sheets (-1.6 BsR) replaced by Ryan O’Hearn (0.0 BsR) and Ramon Laureano (0.2 BsR)

If real changes are to be made in San Diego, the coaching staff will have to preach a smarter approach. Runs in the postseason are hard to come by, and with the roster’s health depleting, it’s time to get crafty. 

Currently, the Padres sit at 16th in MLB with 0.84 stolen base attempts per game. 

Merrill, who has dropped from 16 SBs in 2024 to just ONE in 2025, needs to try to get back to his 2024 level. Their second-best baserunner, Bogaerts (20 SB), is out for the remainder of the regular season. If the Padres are going to be aggressive on the bases without Bogaerts, it’s on Merrill to step up.

The rest of the roster's mediocre runners, such as Fermin, Arraez, and Manny Machado, should all test the boundaries of their hustle and aggressiveness. Playoff games can be decided on the bases, and San Diego needs to incorporate some small ball into its strategy if it wants to win.