Bryan Jaeger

After a tough NLDS loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2024, the San Diego Padres entered the offseason with high hopes—only to stumble and fall to the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round this past season. Now, as the Winter Meetings begin, big names are signing, but the Padres, facing tight finances, must tread carefully. Their projected 2026 payroll is $201 million, down $10 million from last season. They still have $43 million before they reach the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, but with the ownership group contemplating selling the team, that amount may not be in their budget. The team will need to be strategic with how they approach free agency this offseason and can't just pursue the "beauty of the ball". With that in mind, here are three players that the Padres DO NOT need to sign. Luis Arráez, 1B/2B Arráez wasn't much of a producer offensively last season, posting career lows with a .719 OPS and .289 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). For the first time in his seven MLB seasons, his BABIP fell below .300. He did avoid strikeouts, fanning only 21 times last season, but his refusal to draw walks—just 34 in 675 plate appearances—limits his value. He is a contact hitter who recorded a mere 1.1 percent barrel rate in 2025, another personal low. Defensively, Arráez was the Padres' primary first baseman last season, logging 993 2/3 innings at the position, with only 82 innings at second base. The Padres do not need him at either spot. Jake Cronenworth firmly handles second base when healthy. Arráez posted a positive fWAR (0.9) last season, but his -16.6 defensive rating from FanGraphs is a clear liability. He is a below-average defender at a position most notably held by power hitters. The Padres could use an upgrade over Gavin Sheets at first base, but Arráez is not that solution. Cody Bellinger, OF Bellinger's name is everywhere this offseason, aside from Kyle Tucker. Every contender seems linked to him. He managed a strong rebound at the plate after missing 32 games in both 2023 and 2024. He played 152 games this year, the most since 2019. Although he's hit 23 or more home runs each of the past four seasons, his BABIP has topped .300 only once since 2019, when he hit 47 home runs. Bellinger, like Arráez, does not walk enough. He struck out a career-low 13.7 percent of the time but walked only 57 times in 656 plate appearances (8.7 percent). Given his contact approach, his BABIP should be better for an everyday starter. Defensively, Bellinger is solid in the outfield with a +8 and +7 DRS (defensive runs saved) in the corner outfield positions, but was a liability in center field with a -3 rating. He won't take innings from Fernando Tatis Jr., who just won his second Gold Glove Award in right field, but Bellinger would be a slight improvement over Ramón Laureano (+2 DRS) in left field. However, Bellinger's inconsistency at the plate doesn't warrant the massive contract he will receive. J.T. Realmuto, C Freddy Fermin is currently the starting catcher, but he lacks experience as a primary catcher despite four years in the league. Defensively, he excels, ranking second among eligible MLB catchers with a +13 DRS over 803 1/3 innings, though he offers little offensive upside. He had a 1.0 fWAR last season but had a -11 offensive rating. An upgrade is likely needed, but Realmuto doesn't need to be that guy. The former Phillie turns 35 before the season begins and has caught in at least 110 games in nine of his 12 MLB seasons. That workload will wear on catchers quicker than other positions. Offensively, he doesn't provide enough upside to warrant the $10-15 million annual contract. However, Realmuto's BABIP has exceeded .300 in all but one of his 12 MLB seasons. Striking out is an issue, doing so 23.5 percent of the time last season, and he only hit 12 home runs and 52 RBIs in 550 plate appearances. The catcher doesn't produce enough offensive production to warrant the Padres paying for him, since Fermin outperforms him defensively. There are cheaper options available, or give Luis Campusano a sixth try to live up to the hype he produced as a prospect. I'm anticipating a relatively quiet Winter Meetings for the Padres, given their financial limitations; however, this is when crazy acquisitions happen, so who knows what will happen. View full article

Happy Thanksgiving from us at Padres Mission. It's a time to sit back and think of everything you can be thankful for. I'm grateful for my first year here, covering the San Diego Padres. It's been a fantastic, fun first season, and I look forward to the future, which hopefully includes a World Series run. For the Padres faithful, there are many things to be thankful for regarding the team, but here are five things that should be at the top of your list. The Padres add experience behind the former reliever, now manager, Craig Stammen. Stammen had a solid 13-year career as a reliever, posting a 3.66 ERA over 885 innings. He's only been retired for three years, but he served as a special assistant to the Padres, helping with player development in that span. Even though he's still been around the game, he needs experience on his coaching staff. The inexperience was addressed by hiring Randy Knorr. Knorr has been a bench coach, first base coach, bullpen coach, catching coordinator, minor league coach, and has recently been an advisor in player development. When a team has a rookie manager, it's reassuring to fans that there is experience somewhere within the coaching staff. This team, on paper, looks solid next season, so Stammen is stepping into a comfortable situation. A.J. Preller's dedication to building a competitive team. Preller has been determined to put together a competitive team. That included this past season, acquiring notable players, including Mason Miller and JP Sears from the Athletics, and Ryan O'Hearn and Ramón Laureano from the Baltimore Orioles, to help bolster an already impressive roster. Preller has been known to do whatever it takes to put together the best team, including trading for Fernando Tatis Jr. from the Chicago White Sox in 2016 and Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals in 2022. Preller's contract expires after the 2026 season, but discussions are ongoing, so Padres fans can feel confident the Padres will remain competitive for the foreseeable future. The former ownership group, specifically Peter Seidler. With the uncertainty of the ownership group, let's be thankful for the years we had with former owner Peter Seidler, who tragically passed away in November 2023. He was an owner who supported backing Preller's big moves, including the massive contracts to land superstars in free agency, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts top this list, and the blockbuster trades stated earlier. During Seidler's tenure, the Padres made the postseason during the 2020-shortened season, ending a 14-year drought. After that season, he became the controlling owner. He not only had a passion for baseball, but he also poured his love into the community. He formed the "Tuesday Group", which addressed homelessness in San Diego and helped raise money for the Padres' "Pedal the Cause" for local cancer research. The Padres remain owned by the Seidler family, with Peter's brother, John, named chairman before this past season. The family is currently exploring options, including a potential sale. With the Padres coming off their first consecutive 90-plus-win seasons in franchise history, the team is performing at its best and appears appealing to potential buyers. Despite this news, the ownership group is committed to getting the resources to bring a World Series home. You, the Padres fanbase. The Padres fanbase has been electric, especially over the last decade. After breaking the 14-year postseason drought in 2020, the Padres have now made the postseason in four of the previous six seasons, including a 2022 NLCS trip. This past season, 3,437,201 fans attended 81 games at Petco Park, with 72 games selling out. With the Seidlers showing the willingness to do what's needed to win, the fans are rewarding the loyalty. Gone are the days of finishing fifth in the NL West. However, as promising as the season looks, by the end, the fans are left heartbroken and looking to the next season. The Padres again look prepared to contend in 2026, and the fans will be there for all the ups and downs. The 2026 Padres look promising (again). Ryan O'Hearn, Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Robert Suarez are notable names to leave for free agency. The number one bullpen in ERA (3.06) last season is left intact, except for Suarez, whose 2.97 ERA was a key to the bullpen's success, although we replace him with a full season of Mason Miller closing games. The starting rotation returns Nick Pivetta, coming off his best season over his nine-year career. He posted a 2.87 ERA, 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings, and 3.49 FIP over 181 2/3 innings. Joe Musgrove will return after missing all of the 2025 season with a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery. With the loss of Cease, King, and Yu Darvish, who will miss the entire 2026 season due to a UCL injury, a back-end starting pitcher is a significant need this offseason. JP Sears and Kyle Hart are projected to be the number four and five starters. Giving Sears a shot makes sense, as he's only pitched in four MLB seasons and has shown flashes of brilliance; however, regarding Hart, an upgrade is needed. He just turned 33, but hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 since 2019, except his 2024 season in the Korean Baseball Organization. The offense returns all the starters from last season, besides O'Hearn and Arraez. We got to see a blip of the number seven prospect, Tirso Ornelas, last season in 16 plate appearances. He struggled, slashing .071/.188/.071, but he showed great vision at the plate, walking and striking out both at 12 percent. The offense as a whole finished in the bottom half of all primary stats last season, so a bat or two are high on the needs list this offseason, but they can be bench bats that can platoon at positions or a first baseman. View full article

The San Diego Padres finished 90-72 last season, three games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Their postseason run ended in a Game 3 Wild Card loss to the Chicago Cubs. Manager Mike Shildt left the dugout as a result, and newbie Craig Stammen has taken his place. All told, this is a roster capable of competing for a World Series title, but the margin for error is thin. With financial constraints, the Padres will find it hard to add free agents, making in-house depth essential for 2026. Let's examine their depth options at each position, starting with the middle infield. Second base Starter: Jake Cronenworth (31 years old, .246/.367/.377, 61 runs, 11 home runs, 59 RBIs, .744 OPS. 117 wRC+) Cronenworth will return for the 2026 season as the everyday starter at second base. He played in 135 games despite missing a month due to a fractured right rib after being hit by a pitch. The second baseman doesn't offer a great deal of power, but when he's played at least 155 games in a season, he has hit a minimum of 17 home runs. He's a reliable bat for the bottom-third of the lineup. Cronenworth will have no competition for starts unless he misses time due to injury; however, he's played at least 127 games in each of the last five seasons. Depth: Will Wagner (27 years old, .225/.324/.279, 15 runs, 7 RBIs, .603 OPS, 78 wRC+) Wagner appeared in 55 games in his second MLB season, joining the Padres from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline in exchange for Brandon Valenzuela. While he struggles offensively, he provides solid infield defense across multiple positions. Wagner, 27, won't compete with Cronenworth for innings but will fill in on days off or in case of injury. He is currently the only backup second baseman on the roster. With a weak farm system, additional depth would require a trade or free-agent signing. Shortstop Starter: Xander Bogaerts (33 years old, .263/.328/.391, 63 runs, 11 home runs, 53 RBIs, .720 OPS, 104 wRC+) Bogaerts exemplifies durability, having played at least 135 games in 10 of 12 seasons (excluding the shortened 2020 season). A four-time All-Star and five-time Silver Slugger (all with the Boston Red Sox), the 33-year-old no longer delivers elite offensive numbers, though he'll run an above-average wRC+. The lineup does not require much from him if everyone else is clicking, but a return to form from the shortstop would go a long way to fixing what ails the offense. Despite limited production, Bogaerts posted 3.2 fWAR last season. He has only 22 home runs over the last two seasons despite 463-plus plate appearances each year. Due to his lengthy contract signed after his fifth Silver Slugger in 2022 (11 years, $280 million), he remains the team's shortstop for the foreseeable future, health permitting. Depth: Mason McCoy (30 years old, .136/.269/.182, five runs, 1 RBI, .451 OPS, 42 wRC+) McCoy has played only 43 games in his brief three-season career. He hit 21 home runs in 2023 for Triple-A Tacoma, an affiliate of the Seattle Mariners. However, he has not matched that production since, hitting just five and 11 home runs in the last two seasons in Triple-A and failing to homer at the MLB level. Like Wagner, McCoy serves as the only backup at his position, at least for right now. The farm system remains depleted at every position, and shortstop offers no exception. So, if Bogaerts gets injured, the Padres will turn to McCoy unless Wagner shifts to the other side of second base. View full article

Expectations were high for the San Diego Padres after a 93-win season and NLDS appearance in 2024. Fans and the organization anticipated a deep 2025 postseason, but the team's season ended early with a Wild Card loss to the Chicago Cubs. That disappointing finish creates urgency to upgrade the roster, but financial restraints make it difficult. FanGraphs projects that the Padres will begin the 2026 season with a payroll of $201 million, which is within $43 million of the 2026 CBT threshold of $244 million. While they could exceed the CBT threshold and incur penalties, it is worth noting that the Padres had a budget of $211 million last season, despite the 2025 threshold being $241 million. Their prior spending patterns might suggest less room to work with than previously believed. The team's reluctance to spend last season may stem from the fact that it was the first offseason without former owner Peter Seidler, who passed away in November 2023. Known for aggressive spending to build a competitive team, Seidler's absence makes leaving $30 million unspent before reaching the CBT threshold notable. With the Seidler family seeking to sell, ownership uncertainty could affect future player investments. However, despite the possibility of new ownership, that scenario will not alter this offseason's plans. In free agency, the Padres' urgent need is in the starting rotation. Dylan Cease and Michael King are free agents, and Yu Darvish received devastating news that he will miss the entire 2026 season due to needing reconstructive elbow surgery. Offensively, the Padres finished 28th in home runs (152) during the regular season. With Ryan O'Hearn and Luis Arráez also hitting free agency, they are leaving offensive and defensive voids, making the process of targeting a cheap power bat even more crucial. Further complicating the flexibility, the team has $70 million allocated between Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. for the upcoming season. Still, the amount increases to $85 million, $90 million, and $100 million through the 2027-2029 seasons, and remains at $100 million in 2030. These escalating contracts make finding relief challenging, as moving one of these would bring significant salary relief; however, all three have full no-trade clauses. Jake Cronenworth could be a trade piece, but he has five years ($12.28 million annually) left on his seven-year, $80 million deal and holds a partial no-trade clause. Still, the bullpen offers flexibility, returning as a strength after leading the league in ERA last season (3.06). As the Padres finalize their finances and roster, the budget available to president of baseball operations A.J. Preller remains uncertain, although several needs persist. The team should prioritize signing a reliable, middle-tier starting pitcher (if an ace is too expensive). Re-signing Michael King on a short-term contract could be a strong option, as it appeals to both sides, given his recent injury history and the need to prove his value. Target a power hitter who can play first base or designated hitter, ideally a right-hand bat, to potentially platoon with Gavin Sheets or Tirso Ornelas. This addition would strengthen the lineup's offensive output, addressing the team's low home run totals. Seek additional affordable bench bats that provide offensive depth and flexibility for matchups across the lineup. The Padres have the worst farm system in MLB, which has been depleted over multiple seasons of trading prospects for stars. Given these limitations, the free agency market is the best approach to building a competitive team. While the Padres aren't far from reaching a World Series, how Preller approaches this offseason will be crucial to their chances. View full article

The San Diego Padres lacked power production this past season. They ranked 18th in the league in RBIs (663) and 28th in home runs (152). Only six players hit more than 10 home runs: Manny Machado (27), Fernando Tatis Jr. (25), Gavin Sheets (19), Jackson Merrill (16), Jake Cronenworth (11), and Xander Bogaerts (11). These numbers fall well short compared to their NL West counterparts who won the World Series; the Los Angeles Dodgers finished second in home runs (244). To compete for a World Series title next year, the Padres must add power to their lineup. The Padres face a budget limitation of $52 million in Competitive Balance Tax Space, so they must remain selective, as they have several needs to address. They could pursue a cheap power bat who would give them the needed boost and allow them to pursue other top-tier talent. Likewise, the Padres benefit from not requiring a starter; they can target a bench bat who could serve as a platoon or DH option for rookie manager Craig Stammen. Let's analyze three players who fit this archetype and what they could bring to San Diego next season. *All contract predictions are based on NBC Sports' Free Agent Rankings Rhys Hoskins Hoskins has reliably produced over his eight-year MLB career, excluding the 2023 season that he missed due to a torn ACL. He owns a career .820 OPS and 121 wRC+, but striking out remains an issue. Last season, he posted a 27 percent strikeout rate, slightly higher than his 25 percent career average. Staying healthy has recently become another problem, as he has played more than 110 games in only four seasons. However, in each of those four seasons, he hit more than 25 home runs. When healthy, he consistently demonstrates power at the plate. As a right-handed bat, Hoskins could platoon at first base with Sheets, since Ryan O'Hearn became a free agent. Sheets struggles against left-handed pitchers over his career, and though he improved his OPS against lefties to .669 in 2025, significantly above his career average of .557, he's still a below-average contributor in those situations. With an estimated one-year price tag of $5 million, Hoskins looks like an ideal addition for the Padres. Mike Yastrzemski Yastrzemski spent seven seasons with the San Francisco Giants before being traded to the Kansas City Royals this past trade deadline. His price tag is estimated to be a one-year deal worth around $11 million. This past season, Yastrzemski hit 17 home runs and drove in 68 runs over 558 plate appearances. He had trouble striking out over his career, with a strikeout rate of at least 24 percent in each of his first six seasons, but in 2025, he reduced that to 19 percent. The 35-year-old offers a left-handed bat off the bench who can occasionally play in the outfield. Yastrzemski could platoon with Ramón Laureano, who had a breakthrough offensive campaign in 2025. He had an .812 OPS and a 127 wRC+ after being acquired at the trade deadline with the Baltimore Orioles. However, he's had up-and-down results against right-handed pitchers; overall, in his career, he has a .747 OPS in 1,979 plate appearances against righties. Yastrzemski, meanwhile, posted an .809 OPS and 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. As someone who can reliably fill in at all three outfield positions, he'd make a lot of sense as a fourth outfielder. Max Kepler Kepler stands out as another experienced outfielder who can platoon in left field with Laureano next season. In Kepler's 11-year career, he has produced roughly average overall results, but in seven different seasons, he has recorded more than 17 home runs. He hit 18 home runs last season and collected 90 hits in 474 plate appearances. That lack of overall production leads to an estimated $6 million price tag for a one-year deal. Kepler has alternated between single-digit and 17 or more home runs over his last six seasons—that trend is not ideal for a team that needs power production, but with the Padres facing budget restraints, Kepler's $6 million price tag appears enticing. It would allow them to spend on a higher-tier starting pitcher, especially with the latest news that Yu Darvish will miss the entire 2026 season. View full article

The Padres have a few needs to address this offseason, but a front-end starter is the top priority. Budget limitations leave around $52 million in Competitive Balance Tax Space (25th among MLB teams), so they must be selective in their free-agent signings. This offseason, the Padres lost Dylan Cease and Michael King (who opted out) to free agency. The current starting rotation consists of Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish (who will miss the 2026 season), Randy Vásquez, and JP Sears. Musgrove missed all of 2025 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, which he needed after an injury in the 2024 postseason. Darvish and Sears, meanwhile, struggled with ERAs above 5.00. The depth behind these pitchers is thin. Their inexperience and struggles make adding a reliable starter critical, especially given the team's financial constraints and Darvish's pending absence. So, where can the Friars turn to ensure their rotation stays attached through a 162-game grind in 2026? Re-signing Michael King or Dylan Cease Re-signing both pitchers is unlikely, but bringing back either is sensible. King, with ERAs of 2.95 and 3.44 over the past two seasons, has twice exceeded 100 innings in his seven-year career. There are durability concerns after injuries chopped him down in 2025 (and the fact that he was a reliever before joining the Padres). Still, when healthy, he's a frontline starter. Cease, despite a 4.55 ERA in 2025, has been consistent the last five seasons, logging at least 165 innings and 214 strikeouts each year. Both pitchers will be 30 years old in 2026 and are projected to cost around $24-30 million annually. Zac Gallen Gallen finished this past season far from his stellar 2022 and 2023 form, when he finished in the top five for the Cy Young Award. In 2025, he posted a 4.83 ERA and a 175:66 strikeout-to-walk ratio, allowing over 100 earned runs for the first time in his nine-year career, all with the Arizona Diamondbacks. At 30, his value is lower than Cease's or King's (likely in the $18-22 million per year range). Despite a rough season, his experience in the NL West could aid the Padres, and he may be the best chance for the team to add a frontline arm at a discount, if he can bounce back. Merrill Kelly Another former Diamondback is available in Kelly. He was traded to the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline, posting a 4.23 ERA while striking out 46 batters in 55 1/3 innings with his new team. Before the trade, he had a 3.22 ERA with 121 strikeouts over 128 2/3 innings. Over his seven-year career, he's failed to reach 150 innings only once (excluding the shortened 2020 season). Kelly is older than the three pitchers mentioned above (37), so he could serve as a one-year option that won't break the bank ($15-20 million). The one-year deal could be a smart gamble considering he also has experience within the NL West, and the fact that's made at least 30 starts in three of the past four campaigns. His ceiling is lower than everyone else here, but reliability is arguably more of a need than pure talent in San Diego's rotation. Ultimately, whichever arms the Padres pursue this winter, strategically adding a frontline starter who balances performance, durability, and budget will be key to their aspirations for 2026. Their offseason decisions at the top of their rotation may well determine how far this team goes next year. View full article

Yu Darvish has suffered another medical issue that may ultimately be a career-ending injury. It was announced on Tuesday, November 4, that Darvish will miss the entire 2026 season after undergoing surgery to repair a flexor tendon and an internal brace in his elbow. The recovery time for the ulnar collateral ligament is usually 12 to 15 months. This timeline means Darvish will be in his mid-40s when he attempts a return. At that age, it's not encouraging that he will be able to make an adequate return. The righty missed the beginning of the 2025 season due to elbow inflammation, making his debut in July, and ultimately starting only 15 games. The veteran struggled over his 72 innings of work, posting a 5.38 ERA, a career worst, and struck out 68 batters. His 23 percent strikeout percentage was also a career worst. This injury comes at a bad time for the San Diego Padres. When healthy, Darvish is an inning-eater, which isn't easy to replace. The Padres also lost fellow inning-eater Dylan Cease to free agency, and Michael King has opted out of his contract, becoming a free agent. That's three front-end starters that the Padres need to account for. The team will welcome back 32-year-old Joe Musgrove, but he is returning from Tommy John surgery that forced him to sit out this past season, so his effectiveness will be a question mark. With Musgrove likely to be on the 26-man roster, the Padres must also fill at least two more rotation spots after losing Darvish, Cease, and King. Current rotation pieces include ace Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, JP Sears, and Matt Waldron, all of whom are candidates for rotation or bullpen roster spots. Only Pivetta (2.87 ERA) and Vásquez (3.84 ERA) posted under a 5.00 ERA last season, emphasizing the urgent need to acquire another front-end starter for both competitive and roster stability, while considering financial limitations. The Padres, currently 25th in Competitive Balance Tax Space ($52 million), must navigate available roster spots and budget as they replace front-end rotation members. The front office also faces roster decisions at additional positions, needing a power bat, a first baseman, or a designated hitter. It must also decide if Freddie Fermin can claim the catcher roster spot for the whole season. View full article

Robert Suarez , the San Diego Padres' star closer, opted out of his five-year contract signed in 2023. He had $16 million left on the deal. Now 34, Suárez is among the most attractive free agents. He had a career-high 40 saves this season with a 2.97 ERA in 69 2/3 innings. He led the National League in saves, trailing only Carlos Estévez (42) of the Kansas City Royals for the MLB lead. According to Spotrac, Suárez's market value spans four years, totaling $67 million, with an annual salary of $16.8 million. He likely wants another large payday before age 40. He is the top closer available, with Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams as the main alternatives. Edwin Díaz could also opt out, and Andrés Muñoz has a club option. Both are younger and will draw attention. View full rumor

The postseason begins in a few days, and the San Diego Padres will face off against the Chicago Cubs starting September 30. As of September 25, home-field advantage has yet to be determined, but the Cubs need two more wins to claim it, as the Padres hold the tiebreaker. Their season series ended 3-3, so the tiebreaker goes to the team with the better intradivisional record. The Cubs finished 27-22 in the NL Central, and the Padres went 29-20 in the NL West, awarding the Padres the tiebreaker as of now. Now that the Cubs have been confirmed as the Padres' Wild Card opponent, it is possible to begin narrowing down roster decisions with more intention. However, the injury to Ramón Laureano adds a layer of complexity to the lineup planning. With the Cubs likely to start left-handers Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga in the first two games, Padres manager Mike Shildt faces key decisions. Laureano's absence removes a right-handed bat, so Gavin Sheets has stepped into left field, raising the question of whether Shildt might start five left-handed hitters. Defensive considerations may favor Bryce Johnson over Sheets in left. Ultimately, these lineup and roster choices are shaped by the postseason requirement to trim the roster from 28 to 26. Here's what we know for sure: The Locks C - Freddy Fermin C - Elias Díaz 1B/DH - Ryan O'Hearn 1B/DH - Luis Arraez 2B - Jake Cronenworth SS - Xander Bogaerts 3B - Manny Machado LF - Gavin Sheets LF - Bryce Johnson CF - Jackson Merrill RF - Fernando Tatis Jr. INF - Jose Iglesias SP - Nick Pivetta RHP - Robert Suarez RHP - Mason Miller LHP - Adrian Morejon RHP - Jeremiah Estrada LHP - Wandy Peralta RHP - David Morgan LHP - Yuki Matsui With the core lineup essentially decided, the main debate centers around who will start in left field. I assume Johnson should start because of his defensive upgrade to Sheets. This move also gives Shildt a left-handed power bat off the bench in Sheets. Beyond the outfield, another area of focus is the starting rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only lock, as he has been outstanding all season, posting a 2.87 ERA over 181 2/3 innings. The righty should be the game one starter, but who's to follow is another question. On the Bubble C- Martín Maldonado INF - Will Wagner SP - Michael King SP - Dylan Cease SP - Randy Vásquez SP - Yu Darvish LHP - Kyle Hart RHP - Bradgley Rodriguez The final position player decision looms due to Laureano's injury—should Shildt opt for a third catcher in case Fermin or Diaz is injured, or go with utility infielder Wagner? The advantage of including Wagner is that he provides another reliable left-handed bat off the bench. Meanwhile, filling out the pitching staff presents its own complications, and the choices made here could prove crucial in the postseason. Pitching is always key in October, and last season, the Padres carried four starting pitchers into the postseason. This year, the question remains: which three additional starters should join Pivetta? There's also the balance between experience and season-long consistency to weigh. Vásquez has been a reliable starter this season, posting a 3.73 ERA over 132 2/3 innings, but he lacks experience in the postseason. King, Cease, and Darvish have postseason experience, but have been inconsistent throughout the season. King started the season looking like an ace with a 2.59 ERA in 55 2/3 innings. He suffered a nerve injury on May 18 that sent him to the injury list. The righty struggled in his return in August (8.22 ERA in 7 2/3 innings), but has settled down since (2.53 ERA in 21 1/3 innings). King should start Game Two, but that leaves a question about who starts Game Three and who goes to the bullpen. Vásquez may be the better bullpen arm, given his experience as a reliever at the beginning of his career. This leaves the last starting rotation spot to Cease or Darvish. Cease has struggled all season (4.55 ERA in 168 innings), but he's been outstanding in three of his last four games, allowing one earned run in each of the three. Darvish has been awful since returning from a right elbow inflammation injury that kept him out of the beginning of the season. Since returning July 7, he's posted a 5.51 ERA in 67 innings. This will be a difficult decision for Schildt, but Cease has made a strong case to earn the spot. If only four starters are selected, then both Hart and Rodriguez will have a spot on the roster. However, if Schildt decides to take all five starters, then either Hart (5.48 ERA in 42 2/3 innings) or Rodriguez will need to be left off the roster. There are already three left-handed relievers on the roster, so it'd make sense to add Rodriguez. Plus, Rodriguez has pitched well in his debut season, although it's a tiny sample size (1.69 ERA in 5 1/3 innings). Final Roster Prediction C - Freddy Fermin C - Elias Díaz 1B/DH - Ryan O'Hearn 1B/DH - Luis Arraez 2B - Jake Cronenworth SS - Xander Bogaerts 3B - Manny Machado LF - Gavin Sheets LF- Bryce Johnson CF - Jackson Merrill RF - Fernando Tatis Jr. INF - Jose Iglesias INF -Will Wagner SP - Nick Pivetta SP - Randy Vásquez SP - Michael King RHP - Dylan Cease RHP - Robet Suarez RHP - Mason Miller LHP - Adrian Morejon RHP - Jeremiah Estrada LHP - Wandy Peralta RHP - David Morgan LHP - Yuki Matsui RHP - Bradgley Rodriguez LHP - Kyle Hart The Padres organization faces some tough decisions, but October baseball is a chess game, and teams want to ensure they have the right pieces. This roster construction will give the Padres the players they need to advance to another ALCS and hopefully further. View full article

The last few remaining days of the regular season will be crucial for the San Diego Padres. As of September 25, they trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.5 games for the three seed and home-field advantage over whoever claims the final Wild Card spot. The Padres would prefer that scenario over traveling to the north side of Chicago to take on the Cubs. The Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are one game out of the final spot, and the Dodgers will travel to Seattle to play the Mariners, who have secured the AL West but are still competing for a bye in the Wild Card round. For the three-game Wild Card series, the Padres will send Nick Pivetta and Randy Vásquez to the mound, but the third spot is a question mark. Dylan Cease has made this decision a difficult one for manager Mike Shildt. Cease has struggled all season, throwing 168 innings, posting a 4.55 ERA, and a 215:71 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but in three of his last four outings, the righty has allowed one run, and he has gone at least five innings. The only exception is a game against the Chicago White Sox, where he gave up four earned runs. Michael King will be the other choice, but he hasn't looked himself since a nerve injury that sent him to the injury list on May 18. Before the injury, he looked like an ace, starting 10 games and posting a 2.59 ERA. In 7 2/3 August innings, King posted an 8.22 ERA, but he's been solid in 21 1/3 innings in September, posting a 2.53 ERA with an 18:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The 30-year-old is slated to throw Saturday against the Diamondbacks, so his starting or not will give us the idea of the Padres' intentions for the Wild Card rotation. If he pitches, he'd only have four days of rest, which is unlikely given his recent injury history. There is one way Cease could be a lock for a Wild Card start, though. If the Padres are still within reach of the three seed on the last day of the regular season, Pivetta is slotted to start that game, which would likely remove him from the Wild Card round unless the Padres have him throw on three days of rest. This scenario is highly unlikely without the Dodgers choking since they also own the tiebreaker. It makes sense for Cease to move to the bullpen for the Wild Card round to be a long reliever if needed, although the bullpen has been solid all season, ranking first in MLB in ERA (3.05). So we could see Cease left off the Wild Card roster unless an injury occurs. The Padres may choose this option to avoid disrupting the flow the bullpen has developed. If the Padres advance to the ALDS, they will likely head to Milwaukee, and Cease would get one of the four starting rotation spots because Yu Darvish has struggled since returning in July from a right elbow inflammation injury. In 67 innings, Darvish has a 5.51 ERA and a 64:17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, the rotation falls, Cease has done enough lately to have his name being talked about as a Wild Card possibility. View full article

The 2025 MLB Draft took place on July 13-14, and in almost two months since then, the franchise's hopefuls have started their pro careers at various levels. They have reported to the Arizona Complex League (ACL) Rookie League or the Padres' Single-A affiliate in Lake Elsinore, California. The 2025 ACL season has already been completed, so top draft picks like Kruz Schoolcraft (first round), Michael Salina (fourth round), and Ty Harvey (fifth round) are preparing for the new short season, winter leagues, or to get the call-up to Single-A. Other top picks, including Ryan Wideman (third round), Jaxon Dalena (sixth round), and Kerrington Cross (seventh round), have reported to Single-A Lake Elsinore, beginning their pro careers while making their minor league debuts. Wideman has struggled in 16 games with a .217/.309/.267 slash line. He's scored six runs, knocked in eight, and has zero home runs, but is striking out 35 percent of the time. Possessing great size (6-foot-5, 204 pounds) and considerable power, he faces concerns about his ability to handle pro pitching. Although among the worst in Division I for strikeout and groundball rates, Wideman was also the first Division I player since 2001 to have 35 extra-base hits and 45 stolen bases in one season. At 21 years old, there is hope that he can adjust and use his jaw-dropping tools, but the variance between his floor and ceiling is vast. The bust potential is high, but even a 70th-percentile outcome could make Wideman one of the steals of the draft. Dalena, a right-handed pitcher drafted out of Shippensburg University as a fifth-year senior, has made just two Single-A appearances. In his first outing (one inning), he allowed one hit and one walk, but struck out two without giving up a run. He then surrendered two hits and an earned run across two innings in his next appearance on Aug. 26, though he struck out five. At 23, his stuff is clearly good enough to dominate at the lower levels of the minor leagues, though he'll have to learn better pitch sequencing to get more advanced batters out. His age could necessitate a quick climb through the minors, though don't doubt what someone with Dalena's proclivity for strikeouts can do. Lastly, like Wideman, Cross is having early struggles in his minor league debut at Lake Elsinore. He's slashing .190/.433/.214 with zero home runs, 10 runs, and three RBIs over 10 games. Cross also has a 35 percent strikeout rate. Drafted from the University of Cincinnati as a fifth-year senior and last season's Big 12 Player of the Year, there remains optimism that he will adjust as he gets his feet wet int he organization. At 23 years old, this last month of the season will be important for Cross, as a strong finish could get him the bump to High-A Fort Wayne. How do you feel about the Padres' top draft picks thus far? Let us know in the comments! View full article

A consistent presence in the San Diego Padres lineup this season, Fernando Tatis Jr. has appeared in 126 of 129 games after a 2-1 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 22. At the plate, the right fielder is having an average season by his standards, slashing .267/.373/.433 with an .806 OPS, 89 runs, 17 home runs, 52 knocked in, and 25 stolen bases. Although his bat hasn't impressed, he's on track for a second Gold Glove Award, having last won in 2023. Gold Glove winners make tough plays look easy, show quick reflexes, possess strong arms, and understand their roles—attributes Tatis Jr. consistently demonstrates. One key defensive statistic is outs above average (OAA), which measures the number of outs made compared to an average player. Baseball Savant reports that Tatis Jr. leads all right fielders with a +10 OAA, ahead of Wilyer Abreu (+9) and Corbin Carroll (+7). He has prevented nine runs with a 91% success rate, which exceeds the 88% expected rate. Tatis Jr. ranks not only as the top right fielder in OAA but also as the No. 16 player overall in MLB regardless of position and the best among Padres teammates, three points ahead of shortstop, Xander Bogaerts (+7). Tatis Jr.'s high OAA comes from tracking balls in front of or over his head. Out of 242 attempts, he has a 92% success rate straight up (expected: 88%). On 44 balls to his right, his 86% success matches the expectation. On 24 balls to his left, he's slightly below the 85% expected rate at 83%. Given these stats, Tatis Jr. is on pace to surpass his 2023 Gold Glove season. In 2023, he played 137 games (1,175 1/3 innings), recorded 282 putouts, 12 assists, and six errors for a .980 fielding percentage. This season, he has recorded 281 putouts, four assists, and three errors, resulting in a .990 fielding percentage. He's positioned well for a second Gold Glove, having matched or exceeded his 2023 performance and proving himself as the top right fielder this year. View full article

Luis Arraez has primarily been a second baseman over his seven-year career, although he has made starts at first base over the last four seasons. This season, Arraez has been the primary first baseman, with 97 starts at the position. He has accumulated 642 putouts, 56 assists, and one throwing error, posting a .999 fielding percentage. This is an impressive performance; however, one stat says otherwise. His outs above average (OAA) statistic is a drastic difference from his successful fielding stats. OAA indicates the number of outs a player has saved. According to MLB.com, four factors go into determining the OAA: • How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball ("the intercept point"). • How much time he has to get there. • How far is he then from the base the runner is heading to? • On force plays, how fast the batter is, on average. (A runner's average Sprint Speed is used in the calculation, rather than his Sprint Speed on that particular play. For new players with no data, a league-average -- 27 ft/sec -- score is used; once the player qualifies for the leaderboard, all of his previous plays are re-run.) Using these factors, Baseball Savant has posted that Arraez has a -6 on the season, which is tied with Rowdy Tellez for the second-worst among 36 eligible first basemen. He is rated -5 for preventing runs; his biggest weakness is stopping balls down the first-base line, where he has had 104 attempts with a 69 percent success rate, compared to an expected 73 percent. These failed attempts would have likely resulted in an extra-base hit. This weakness is followed up by balls toward the hole between first and second. After 46 attempts, the 28-year-old has achieved a 74 percent success rate, compared to an expected 77 percent. It's surprising to see a middle infielder struggling with fielding balls to either side, but it shows that Arraez struggles with his reaction time off the bat from left-handed batters pulling the ball. He has a -4 rating against lefties than a -2 from righties, but his height can also be an issue with his reach. The average height of first basemen this season is 6 feet 0.82 inches, and Arraez is only 5'10". Ryan O'Hearn's arrival via the trade with the Baltimore Orioles brought a potent bat to the Padres' lineup, although it's been a slow start; however, he brought along his glove, which is far more impressive according to OAA. Although O'Hearn has played first base for eight seasons as a utility guy, he has just 120 more games at the position than Arraez. O'Hearn also has a height advantage, standing at 6'2". He ranks 3rd in OAA with a seven rating and five runs prevented. Where Arraez struggled is where O'Hearn is succeeding. The 32-year-old has an 88 percent success rate compared to an expected 81 percent on balls down the line on 86 attempts. He has also been successful on 11 attempts, achieving a 55 percent success rate in the hole, which is higher than the expected 53 percent. Although O'Hearn's bat has struggled in San Diego, slashing .200/.326/.429, he's found a way to impact the Padres. The Padres trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by two games in the NL West title race, after the August 8th narrow 4-3 loss to the Giants. To catch the Dodgers, the Padres will need their new run-preventing first baseman. View full article