Starting Pitchers Dylan Cease & Michael King Decline Qualifying Offers, Become Free Agents

Dylan Cease and Michael King have both declined the Padres’ one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer for 2026, keeping them on the free-agent market and leaving two significant vacancies in San Diego’s rotation. Cease is coming off a 2025 season in which he made 32 starts and threw 168 innings with a 4.55 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 11.52 K/9, marking his fifth straight year with at least 32 starts and 214 strikeouts. King’s year was limited by injury; he started 15 games and logged 73 1/3 innings with a 3.44 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and 9.33 K/9 after a full 173 2/3-inning workload as a starter in 2024 that featured a 3.33 FIP and a 19.0 percent K-BB rate. 

MLB Trade Rumors projects Cease to land a seven-year, $189 million contract and King to secure a four-year, $80 million deal on the open market. 

From a rotation standpoint, the club now has to account for the loss of Cease’s 168 regular-season innings and the portion of King’s workload it reasonably expected in 2026. Cease paired his 4.55 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 33.8 percent whiff rate in 2025, leading all starters in whiff rate. King’s shortened 2025 followed his 2024 transition to a full-time starting role, where he provided 173 2/3 innings with a 3.33 FIP for San Diego. Replacing that combination of innings and strikeout production becomes a central offseason task.

The compensation side is straightforward. Under current qualifying-offer rules, Competitive Balance Tax payors receive a single compensation pick after the fourth round when a qualified free agent signs elsewhere, and the value of that player’s contract does not change the placement of the pick. The Padres are classified as CBT payors this offseason, so if Cease signs with another club, San Diego will receive one compensation pick after the fourth round of the 2026 Draft; the same structure applies to King. If both pitchers depart, the Padres would add two such selections.