Fernando Tatis Jr. Is Changing His Zone & Letting Good Fortune Do The Rest

[Randy Holt]

Fernando Tatis Jr. wasn't the worst hitter in Major League Baseball in May or June... even if it felt like it at times. 

Coming off a blazing start to the year — which featured a .345/.409/.602 line and 184 wRC+ in March & April — the San Diego Padres' right fielder completely fell off in the two subsequent months. Not in a he's-been-just-okay-which-isn't-great-for-a-scuffling-lineup context. Like, objectively terrible. Tatis Jr. carried a .206/.313/.323 line in May & June, with a 87 wRC+. Again, he wasn't the worst in baseball (his wRC+, for example, was just the 38th-worst among qualifying hitters), but it felt like nothing was going right at the plate, even if his defense helped him to maintain value in the WAR game. 

There were a number of factors that could've played into such a brutal stretch for one of the game's brightest stars. Mechanical changes abounded. Approach issues might have been present. We don't know if there were any outstanding health components either given multiple hit-by-pitches sustained within that stretch. But, in those instances when you're trying to muster anything at the plate, a .233 average on balls in play certainly isn't your friend.

But, that's the mark against which Tatis fought over those two middle months of the season thus far. There wasn't any particular reason for it, either, at least beyond the speculative. If we wanted to take a fairly obvious route, though, there was a blend of batted ball issues. He put the ball on the ground far too much in May (53.7 GB%) and checked in at a sub-.200 BABIP (.196). It didn't completely stabilize in June, but when he cut that groundball rate by 13 percent, he was able to drive that number up to .266. Such batted ball trends are at least somewhat indicative of why we've seen Tatis Jr. take off once again in July.

Want to see a visual that depicts something incredibly obvious? 

It's not particularly insightful to note that a player is able to provide more offensive value when he's experiencing some batted ball luck. In Tatis' case, though, it's extremely stark. He hasn't been able to work his through the BABIP monster this year; his success has been almost entirely tied to it. 

As such, just how he's managing to reclaim the "luck" in July is of particular interest. As of this writing, Tatis Jr's BABIP sits at .397 for the month of July. Everything else has come with it to the tune of a .309/.429/.481 line and a 155 wRC+. The power isn't quite there yet, but a .173 isolated power is at least encouraging following a .102 ISO in June. Of course, the answer here might be disappointing in its simplicity. Explanations include the idea that Tatis is simply hitting the ball harder and at a more appropriate angle. 

The groundball rate is back up a touch from June (roughly 45 percent), but where Tatis Jr. has thrived is in creating line drive contact rather than true elevation. His FB%, at 23.3 percent, is his lowest of the year. His LD%, however, is his highest of the year (31.7 percent). Not only is it his highest of the year, but it's nearly double any rate he's turned in to this point. That includes March & April. 

For Tatis, the appropriate observation seems to be that this hasn't been so much an adjustment against pitch types, but a zone emphasis. This is the zone from March to June: 

And here it is in July: 

From these visuals, it looks like Tatis is concentrating his zone a bit more toward the outer third of the plate. Middle-middle is always going to be an area of emphasis, but it appears he's graduated from expanding a bit more vertically to stretching the zone more horizontally. Most notable is in that outer third where his groundball contact is less severe. Given a setup more toward the back corner of the box (26.3" back, 29.3" off the plate) and one of the game's longer swings (7.3 feet), it's a part of the plate that plays well. Even more so when you consider an 11-degree attack angle that is a four-degree increase from May and two from June. The July angle is one that sits well within the window of elevating the baseball. So, not only are his batted ball trends settling back to something favorable, but his mechanics are driving it.

Sure enough, at 7.4 percent, Tatis Jr is experiencing his highest barrel rate since the first month of the season (more than three percent higher than May). And you really don't need more than that. Fernando Tatis Jr. is emphasizing an area of the zone that's going to allow him to get the barrel on the baseball at a higher rate. That doesn't mean we should continue to expect a BABIP figure that is touching nearly .400. But, the changes made speak to something real. If Tatis can continue to generate this kind of contact, then May & June will quickly become a distant memory in what could be a really strong second half of the year.

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