Predicting The Padres' Wild Card Roster

[Bryan Jaeger]

The postseason begins in a few days, and the San Diego Padres will face off against the Chicago Cubs starting September 30. As of September 25, home-field advantage has yet to be determined, but the Cubs need two more wins to claim it, as the Padres hold the tiebreaker. Their season series ended 3-3, so the tiebreaker goes to the team with the better intradivisional record. The Cubs finished 27-22 in the NL Central, and the Padres went 29-20 in the NL West, awarding the Padres the tiebreaker as of now. 

Now that the Cubs have been confirmed as the Padres' Wild Card opponent, it is possible to begin narrowing down roster decisions with more intention. However, the injury to Ramón Laureano adds a layer of complexity to the lineup planning. With the Cubs likely to start left-handers Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga in the first two games, Padres manager Mike Shildt faces key decisions. Laureano's absence removes a right-handed bat, so Gavin Sheets has stepped into left field, raising the question of whether Shildt might start five left-handed hitters. Defensive considerations may favor Bryce Johnson over Sheets in left. Ultimately, these lineup and roster choices are shaped by the postseason requirement to trim the roster from 28 to 26. Here's what we know for sure:

The Locks
C - Freddy Fermin
C - Elias Díaz
1B/DH - Ryan O'Hearn
1B/DH - Luis Arraez
2B - Jake Cronenworth
SS - Xander Bogaerts
3B - Manny Machado
LF - Gavin Sheets
LF - Bryce Johnson
CF - Jackson Merrill
RF - Fernando Tatis Jr.
INF - Jose Iglesias
SP - Nick Pivetta
RHP - Robert Suarez
RHP - Mason Miller
LHP - Adrian Morejon
RHP - Jeremiah Estrada
LHP - Wandy Peralta
RHP - David Morgan
LHP - Yuki Matsui

With the core lineup essentially decided, the main debate centers around who will start in left field. I assume Johnson should start because of his defensive upgrade to Sheets. This move also gives Shildt a left-handed power bat off the bench in Sheets. Beyond the outfield, another area of focus is the starting rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only lock, as he has been outstanding all season, posting a 2.87 ERA over 181 2/3 innings. The righty should be the game one starter, but who's to follow is another question.

On the Bubble
C- Martín Maldonado
INF - Will Wagner
SP - Michael King
SP - Dylan Cease
SP - Randy Vásquez
SP - Yu Darvish
LHP - Kyle Hart
RHP - Bradgley Rodriguez

The final position player decision looms due to Laureano's injury—should Shildt opt for a third catcher in case Fermin or Diaz is injured, or go with utility infielder Wagner? The advantage of including Wagner is that he provides another reliable left-handed bat off the bench. Meanwhile, filling out the pitching staff presents its own complications, and the choices made here could prove crucial in the postseason.

Pitching is always key in October, and last season, the Padres carried four starting pitchers into the postseason. This year, the question remains: which three additional starters should join Pivetta? There's also the balance between experience and season-long consistency to weigh. Vásquez has been a reliable starter this season, posting a 3.73 ERA over 132 2/3 innings, but he lacks experience in the postseason. King, Cease, and Darvish have postseason experience, but have been inconsistent throughout the season. King started the season looking like an ace with a 2.59 ERA in 55 2/3 innings.

He suffered a nerve injury on May 18 that sent him to the injury list. The righty struggled in his return in August (8.22 ERA in 7 2/3 innings), but has settled down since (2.53 ERA in 21 1/3 innings). King should start Game Two, but that leaves a question about who starts Game Three and who goes to the bullpen. Vásquez may be the better bullpen arm, given his experience as a reliever at the beginning of his career. This leaves the last starting rotation spot to Cease or Darvish.

Cease has struggled all season (4.55 ERA in 168 innings), but he's been outstanding in three of his last four games, allowing one earned run in each of the three. Darvish has been awful since returning from a right elbow inflammation injury that kept him out of the beginning of the season. Since returning July 7, he's posted a 5.51 ERA in 67 innings. This will be a difficult decision for Schildt, but Cease has made a strong case to earn the spot.

If only four starters are selected, then both Hart and Rodriguez will have a spot on the roster. However, if Schildt decides to take all five starters, then either Hart (5.48 ERA in 42 2/3 innings) or Rodriguez will need to be left off the roster. There are already three left-handed relievers on the roster, so it'd make sense to add Rodriguez. Plus, Rodriguez has pitched well in his debut season, although it's a tiny sample size (1.69 ERA in 5 1/3 innings).

Final Roster Prediction
C - Freddy Fermin
C - Elias Díaz
1B/DH - Ryan O'Hearn
1B/DH - Luis Arraez
2B - Jake Cronenworth
SS - Xander Bogaerts
3B - Manny Machado
LF - Gavin Sheets
LF- Bryce Johnson
CF - Jackson Merrill
RF - Fernando Tatis Jr.
INF - Jose Iglesias
INF -Will Wagner

SP - Nick Pivetta
SP - Randy Vásquez
SP - Michael King

RHP - Dylan Cease
RHP - Robet Suarez
RHP - Mason Miller
LHP - Adrian Morejon
RHP - Jeremiah Estrada
LHP - Wandy Peralta
RHP - David Morgan
LHP - Yuki Matsui
RHP - Bradgley Rodriguez
LHP - Kyle Hart

The Padres organization faces some tough decisions, but October baseball is a chess game, and teams want to ensure they have the right pieces. This roster construction will give the Padres the players they need to advance to another ALCS and hopefully further.

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