Who Is To Blame For Joe Musgrove's Setback: Padres, Pitcher, Or No One?

[Steve Drumwright]

In discussing his current status following a spring training setback in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, San Diego Padres right-handed starter Joe Musgrove had this to say:

"[I don't anticipate having to] build up all the way to six (innings) and 100 (pitches) before I’m back, but they want to see me be good and like physically feeling like I’m recovering."

Musgrove said that to the San Diego Union-Tribune a couple weekends ago as the team was in Pittsburgh. This was more than a month following his lone appearance in a game during spring training; he has yet to throw off a mound since. At this point, it feels like a return in June is the most optimistic scenario.

When spring training began, Musgrove felt it was possible, even likely that he could be ready to make the Opening Day roster. Whether that was realistic is another thing. As with all pitchers, particularly starting pitchers, that would include a gradual ramp-up of his pitch total in each outing. That is without any further delays in his recovery in returning to the Padres' rotation.

The buildup quote becomes more curious when you consider how the Padres handled Musgrove's only game appearance thus far. That came March 4 when the Padres faced Great Britain, a World Baseball Classic team, in an exhibition.

Remember, this was his first game since having Tommy John surgery Oct. 11, 2024. It typically takes about 12-15 months to recover, sometimes longer. So, Musgrove was pretty much on schedule to resume a regular buildup.

Against Great Britain, Musgrove threw 60 pitches, pitching into the third inning (with a re-entry after a lengthy first inning). No one really questioned that number of pitches at the time, at least not in the recaps from MLB.com and the Union-Tribune. That well may have been the plan going in. However, that number of pitches in not just a spring debut, but a first game back from Tommy John surgery felt reckless.

No other Padres starter had thrown that many pitches in a spring training game to that point. The day before Musgrove's outing, right-hander Nick Pivetta threw 43 in his second start. A day after, right-hander Walker Buehler tossed 47 pitches in his first outing. The first non-Musgrove Friars starter to throw 60 pitches in an exhibition game was right-hander Michael King, who had 73 in his start three days after Musgrove's game. That was King's third outing.

When it came time for Musgrove's second start, he wasn't ready to take the mound. The Padres said they were letting the situation play out, not an unexpected response. Musgrove's response felt more cryptic, especially knowing what we know now.

"Right now, I’m just kind of day to day until I feel like I’m ready to take the mound. And when I tell them I’m good, we’ll be ready to go," Musgrove said.

That was a little more than two weeks before Opening Day, so there was no real shot at avoiding the injured list to begin the season. But it is worth looking at whether the Padres put too much on Musgrove's plate for that one game. There was surely a conversation involving Musgrove, the medical staff and the coaching staff (manager Craig Stammen and pitching coach Ruben Niebla), as well as A.J. Preller regarding how long Musgrove would be allowed to pitch that first game.

However, 60 is more of a pitch total for a second or more likely third spring training start. Not the first coming back from Tommy John surgery in a game that doesn't matter other than to get back on the mound and see how you do and feel. And Musgrove did just fine. His velocity was right where it was before the surgery and he said he liked the shape of his pitches.

For the other Padres starters, their pitch counts in their spring debuts were much less. Pivetta had 38 pitches, King 37, right-hander Randy Vasquez 31, right-hander German Marquez 37, right-hander Matt Waldron 24, left-hander JP Sears 30 and Buehler's 47 topping everyone else.

Pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery or a UCL internal brace repair also generally includes a slow ramp-up in the pitch count. Miami Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner, had Tommy John surgery on Oct. 6, 2023, which was a similar date to Musgrove's procedure (Oct. 11, 2024).

Now, not all recoveries are the same. Alcantara was ready to go at the beginning of spring training in 2025, when he was 29 years old. He had the following pitch counts in his five exhibition starts: 17, 30, 45, 57 and 50, coming close to 60 once but not going over. Alcantara then threw 91 pitches in his first regular-season start.

Another example under different circumstances is Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who was coming back from his second elbow reconstruction. Due to his two-way status, Ohtani didn't have the luxury of an in-season rehab assignment. His buildup came in regular-season games and the Dodgers had more of an innings limit for each of his 14 starts before the postseason. In his first five starts, his pitch count ranged from 18 to 38, the last one his first outing of three innings. The 31-year-old's next three starts were 46, 56 and 53 pitches before moving to four innings and hitting 54. It wasn't until his ninth start that Ohtani surpassed 60 pitches, jumping up to 80 in 4⅓ innings, his longest outing yet.

Musgrove is 33, no longer young in baseball years but also not truly old by that same standard. Players always want to rush back to be part of the team, to be part of the action and contribute. That is where the medical staff and coaches generally come in and tell a player they need to slow down.

We don't know what those conversations were, so we can't point to any single source for why Musgrove was allowed to throw 60 pitches in his first outing in 17 months. Musgrove is competitive and his adrenaline certainly had to be pumping for that otherwise meaningless exhibition game. Maybe the Padres told him he had six outs to get vs. Great Britain. That is what he got. But there has been a price to pay for that decision.

No one knows whether the same situation—a setback in his recovery of at least two months, maybe more—would have arisen had he thrown only half of those pitches. After all, 15 pitches is about average per inning for a pitcher, meaning 30 would have been a good ballpark for two innings.

But when your franchise pitcher, the one who authored the first no-hitter in team history, is coming back from a major injury, you want to make sure to protect your investment. In this case, that wasn't done.

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