Padres Have Hope, As New Statcast Data Offers Optimism Around Manny Machado

[Randy Holt]

In just about every way possible, the 2026 season has been Manny Machado's worst of his major-league career. The last time Machado even flirted with the threshold constituting an average hitter was 2017, well before he was a member of the San Diego Padres. This year has represented something much worse, however, as Machado's wRC+ of just 73 has his offensive value among the 10-worst qualified hitters in the sport. 

Amid those struggles, concerns over age have begun to emerge. Unlike Fernando Tatis Jr. or Jackson Merrill, each of whom are also experiencing their own woes in 2026, Machado is at the point in his career where the aging curve looms as a factor. His bat speed has declined in the last few seasons while his power output is threatening to decrease for a sixth consecutive campaign. It's an entirely reasonable concern given how things have transpired in San Diego.

The most surefire of the concerns would have manifested in the form of issues against fastballs. Waning bat speed unable to keep up with increasing velocity could be indicative of such age-related issues, especially given that Machado's best work has come against the hard stuff. 

His hard-hit rate has been highest against fastballs every season of his big league career. His best outcomes in terms of batting average have come against fastballs in five of the last seven seasons prior to 2026 and, with the exception of 2022, have always been within just a few percentage points of whatever pitch type did end up atop the list. They've also represented the lowest source of swing-and-miss for Machado throughout his career. Until 2026, at least. 

This year, Machado is hitting a mere .192 against the hard stuff. Of course, that number's relative given the .167 average he's produced against off-speed and .135 average versus breaking pitches. Nevertheless, it's a sharp decline combined with a swing-and-miss rate of 22.8 percent that, for the first time, rests narrowly above the off-speed stuff for the lowest among the three groups. His whiff rate is also cause for concern, as a 21.4 percent swing-and-miss rate on fastballs inside the zone represents a slight increase of last year's number that served as a big jump from 2024. 

However, before we start to get too wrapped up in Machado's fight against the aging curve, there are a couple of things to consider. The first is the luck component. Machado's .210 batting average against fastballs comes despite a .272 xBA. His .320 wOBA against that pitch type sits far lower than his .371 xwOBA indicates. He's still making hard contact over half the time against fastballs (53.4 percent), but not finding fortune in doing so. 

Perhaps more important, though, is Statcast's new data around swing timing and miss distances. This new information informs us not only about a hitter's timing against each of the three prominent pitch groups but how much they're missing in the event that they're not making contact. As easy as it could be to find concern over Machado's performance against fastballs, this new data tends to lean the other direction. 

Here is Machado's performance against fastballs specifically:

Machado is centering the ball effectively. He's getting slightly under it in a way that you want to be against fastballs. Most importantly, though, he's not that late on fastballs. The middle graph in the above indicates that he's a touch late, but mostly on time. Given his declining bat speed and the velocity against which he's going, this is not an unreasonable trend quite yet. Certainly not one that would offer genuine concern for his ability to handle heat.

Further, Machado's average miss distance against fastballs sits at 0.9 inches. That's below the big-league average of 1.3 inches. He has a flawed swing — characterized as a swing that does none of the three above components correctly — just seven percent of the time while generating perfect contact at a 24 percent clip. His competitive swing rate of 92.9 percent is one of the top rates for any Padre hitter against any pitch type. 

Reason for optimism exists here, borne out of the fact that Machado isn't as overmatched by fastballs as other bits of information may have us believe. It's possible that there's a bit of a timing issue at play, certainly. Perhaps even a pitch recognition issue. But between the luck element and the information wrought by the new Statcast data, we can stave off thoughts of Manny Machado's retirement for at least another day.

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