National League Playoff Picture: Gauging Padres' Best Paths to October

[N.B. Lindberg]

The San Diego Padres postseason chances have taken a bit of a tumble. On August 22, the Friars hit a season-high 68.9% playoff odds, according to FanGraphs’ model. Since then, they’ve gone 2-5, seen their odds drop to 47.3%, and fallen a half-game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks. All is not lost, but the Padres will have to sweat out the month of September if they want to play into October, and it could culminate in a dramatic final series.   

Unlike the American League, the National League playoff picture is pretty clear. The Brewers, Dodgers, and Braves will win their divisions, the Cubs and Phillies will claim the top two Wild Card spots, and the Padres and Diamondbacks will battle to the death for that final Wild Card spot. Nothing is set in stone, but the only other team with playoff odds greater than 2% are the Marlins at 4.2%.  

Starting with the basics, the Dodgers, despite only having the second-best record in the league, own the best divisional odds at 100% (They haven’t mathematically clinched, and the true odds are probably in the ballpark of 99.95%). Their ten-game divisional lead is the largest in baseball, and they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NL (.466), which should be enough for them to coast to a playoff spot. They have the same 82-55 record as the Braves, so a first-round bye is far from a guarantee, and that could end up being very relevant for the Padres and Diamondbacks. 

The Brewers own the best record in baseball (85-52), but haven’t quite locked up the division thanks to the Cubs' 77-60 record. While that nets out to an eight-game lead, the Brewers and Cubs play each other seven times from here on out. A lopsided series for the Cubs could put the division back in play, but anything close to a split probably locks in the Brewers as division champs. 

The Braves have the same record as the Dodgers, but their division odds are the lowest of the current National League leaders because the Phillies are 77-60. A five-game lead is great heading into the stretch run, but it’s far from insurmountable. The Braves really need to keep playing well if they want to win the division, and it’s a necessity to land a bye. 

The Cubs and Phillies at 77-60 have a 4.5-game lead for the top two Wild Card spots. While it’s possible one of them could fall out of it, the chance of both missing out is a rounding error. FanGraphs has their playoff odds at an identical 98.3%, which is a testament to their current lead and their overall team quality, which brings us to the true bout in the NL: Padres vs Diamondbacks. 

The Padres’ playoff odds sit at 47.3%, the Diamondbacks are at 49.1%, and they’re separated by a half-game. Back in the day, game 163 would be very much in play, but the expanded playoff format exchanged one of baseball’s greatest quirks for super-duper fun tiebreakers. 

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, which is where this will stop thanks to the Padres and Diamondbacks playing 13 times. However, the Padres and Diamondbacks have split their first ten games, which means their three-game set in San Diego to close the season could be for all the marbles. 

However, for games 160-162 to matter, they’ll have to be quite close in the standings, and that’s no given. The Diamondbacks have a slightly more difficult September than the Padres. They start with two games against the Phillies, and it is followed by three against the Astros, Royals, Rangers, Marlins, Yankees, and Rockies. Meanwhile, the Padres face the Reds, Yankees, Nationals, Giants, Rockies (in a four-game set), Marlins, and the Dodgers. 

A huge wild card for the Wild Card could be where the Dodgers are in the standings when they face the Padres in the penultimate series of the season. There’s a chance the Dodgers have nothing to play for as the first overall seed is out of reach, but a bye is wrapped up. On the flip side, the Dodgers might be in a dogfight for the first seed and/or a bye. Considering how weak their September schedule is, and how many reinforcements they’re expected to add, there’s a decent chance this series is there for the taking. 

Both the Padres and Diamondbacks have one more away game than home game, which could be a nice little boost for the Padres. While the Diamondbacks have a better road record than the Padres, the underlying metrics suggest the Padres are the far superior road team.

Home	D-Backs	Padres	Away	D-Backs	Padres
wRC+	104	98	wRC+	89	100
FIP	4.30	4.05	FIP	4.48	4.26
Record	40-29	41-28	Record	33-36	31-37

Doing some quick math, we can see how the Diamondbacks and Padres would be expected to play based upon their home and road splits. By taking their home and road wRC+ and multiplying it by the league average 4.47 runs per game, we can see how many runs they’d be expected to score based on their underlying performance. 

Home	D-Backs	Padres	Away	D-Backs	Padres
Runs	4.65	4.38	Runs	3.98	4.47
FIP	4.30	4.05	FIP	4.48	4.26
Difference	0.35	0.33	Difference	-0.50	0.21

The Diamondbacks' underlying metrics suggest they’re a true-talent .444 win percentage team on the road, which is far worse than their .478 mark. On the flip side, you’d expect the Padres to have a .525 road win percentage, which is far better than their current .456 figure. 

Obviously, these figures strip out a bunch of important context, but it does suggest that the Padres, despite a half-game deficit, should feel pretty good about their chances. They’ve been the better team, have the easier schedule, and get the final, potentially deciding, series at home. Baseball is impossible to predict, but a 14-11 kick to close the season should be enough, especially if they can take two of three against the Diamondbacks and claim the tiebreaker.

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