Michael King Pitched His Way Back Into the "Ace" Conversation With Padres This Season

[Sam Caulder]

After an injury-filled 2025 campaign that limited him to just 73 1/3 innings, Michael King returned to form in 2026. For a San Diego Padres pitching staff that entered the season with plenty of unknowns, getting that kind of performance was nothing short of a godsend.

King finished the regular season with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP across 185 innings, recording 159 strikeouts and 70 walks. While he didn't quite match his elite 2024 numbers, he didn't need to. King was the ace the Padres needed, and he looked every bit the part during the postseason.

His Wild Card Series start against the Chicago Cubs was nothing short of brilliant; the right-hander carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning before finishing with seven scoreless frames against what had been the best offense in baseball throughout the regular season. He followed that performance with another strong outing against the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS, allowing just one run across five innings. King even made a relief appearance in Game 3, throwing two more scoreless innings just two days after his start to keep the Friars' season alive for one more day.

In short, King was excellent when San Diego needed him most. But while his results were impressive, some of the underlying numbers suggest there could be a few areas of concern moving forward.

Let's start with the positives, because there were plenty of them. King was excellent at limiting hard contact, finishing in the 86th percentile or better among major-league pitchers in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity allowed. He also continued to keep the ball on the ground, an area where he has consistently excelled throughout his career.

However, there were some warning signs beneath the surface. King's expected ERA (xERA) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) both landed in the low-to-mid 4.00s, well above his actual 3.21 ERA. While those metrics don't tell the entire story of a pitcher's season, the gap suggests King may have benefited from some favorable results.

His strikeout numbers were another area of concern, as his strikeout rate dropped to 21% in 2026, placing him in the 38th percentile among major-league pitchers. It was also the lowest mark of his career. Likewise, his 24.5% whiff rate was his lowest since 2020. That's certainly a notable decline for a pitcher who has demonstrated the ability to miss bats at a much higher rate in the past. And considering his primary pitch actually improved in several important areas, the drop-off becomes even more bewildering.

King's sinker performed better than it had in the past in terms of both velocity and movement. He also generated more whiffs with the pitch than he did in 2025. As such, much of the concern centered around his secondary pitches. He leaned heavily on his changeup as his primary secondary offering, much like he did during his breakout 2024 campaign. The difference was that the pitch wasn't nearly as effective this time around. Its spin rate dropped by nearly 200 RPM, and hitters made more hard contact against it.

Even with a slightly flatter arm angle, the changeup didn't have the same amount of run. That limited its effectiveness, particularly when paired with his sinker. The sweeper was also a victim in this regard, lacking its usual break and playing flatter than it had in the past. As a result, opposing hitters had more success against it, further limiting his ability to consistently generate swings and misses with his secondary offerings.

If he can regain some of the movement on his changeup and sweeper, there's reason to believe he can get back to missing bats at a higher rate. Still, the underlying numbers suggest his 2026 ERA might not tell the entire story.

Of course, all of this is the backdrop to one of the biggest storylines hanging over the Padres' heads right now: King's future in San Diego. The right-hander has an opt-out in his contract ahead of the 2027 season and is reportedly likely to exercise it in search of a new deal. Given his production over the last few years, that decision wouldn't come as much of a surprise.

Following the Padres' elimination, King spoke about what the organization and city have meant to him.

"This is where we started a family," King said. "We started our foundation here. San Diego's been incredible for me, and it's all the way across the country from home. But now I feel like I have a second home on the West Coast, so it's been awesome. And yeah, I hope to continue."

Those comments make it clear that King has developed a strong connection to San Diego, even if his next contract ultimately takes him elsewhere. Regardless of what the underlying metrics suggest, King has been a rock-solid presence in the Padres' rotation over the last few years. After dealing with injuries in 2025, he returned to provide 185 innings of quality production in 2026 before delivering some of his best work when the stakes were highest.

He's shown that he can handle a substantial workload, limit hard contact, and give his team a chance to win against some of the best offenses in baseball. Whether he remains in San Diego or finds a new home in free agency, King has the ability to serve as a true frontline option for a contending team.

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