Three Padres Who Will Make Or Break San Diego's Trade Deadline Direction

Despite the fact that the San Diego Padres have come out of the All-Star Break in the same uneven fashion in which they entered it, they remain on the outskirts of the National League playoff picture. Entering the week, they're 2.5 games out of the last wild card spot and, as such, do not appear to have a clear direction ahead of next month's trade deadline. Clarity could be on the horizon, though.

The next couple of weeks will obviously dictate the avenue A.J. Preller chooses to pursue. Even if it appears that he doesn't have it in him to purely sell as a deadline strategy, continued struggles could force his hand in that direction. This is a team with an inconsistent offense, a woefully underperforming starting staff, and an upper-tier bullpen. The ultimate direction which things go is going to be dependent on a few players on the roster from the former two areas. 

If the Padres do find themselves in a position to add at the deadline, the needs are clear. It's starting pitching above all, with supplemental help in the lineup (the outfield, in particular) and in the bullpen (for the middle innings) considered to be more secondary. Preller is an executive incapable of standing idle. Instead, what we should be on the lookout for ahead of the deadline is the nuance of the additions needed. Do they need genuine impact from a prospective starter or volume from, perhaps, multiple? Would a bat in the lineup be someone who can compensate for continued struggles of certain key players or someone in the Ramón Laureano class of a true secondary piece?

Let's talk about three names that could lend themselves to dictation of a particular route, regardless of such scale, prior to Aug. 3.

Jackson Merrill, CF

To say that Merrill has struggled in 2026 would be a grave understatement. His batting line reads .214/.271/.341 with a 71 wRC+ that paints him as a well-below-average hitter this season. On paper, he's — alongside Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado — one of the three most important hitters on the roster. Tatis has provided steady production even in the absence of his usual power, while Machado has begun to come into his own over the last handful of weeks. Merrill has no such sustained stretch of play this year.

Whether these problems are mechanical or psychological or a combination of both, Merrill providing any sort of offensive competence over these next couple of weeks would be a massive boon to the Padres' collective offense. It would give them that trio of steady drivers of the lineup with quality supplemental work from the likes of Ty France, Miguel Andujar, and Jake Cronenworth. In short, it would lengthen the lineup in a way that would allow the team to string together regular wins in the standings. 

Of course, a continued run of play similar to the one we've seen would have the opposite effect. The Padres offense will continue to struggle on a given night and, considering the issues with their starting pitching, fail to collect crucial wins. Whether it's more of the same or a turnaround, Merrill's performance will have a lot to say about the team's direction in the next couple of weeks. His impact is just more of a generalized nature, with the capacity to send the team into buy or sell mode almost on his own.

Walker Buehler, SP

Unlike Merrill, whose impact in itself could determine direction, Buehler's influence on the deadline approach is a little more intricate. On one hand, he could impact how they approaching buying, and on the other, he could be the catalyst that sends them to the land of sellers.

There was a brief time where it looked as if Buehler was giving the Padres the most steadiness out of any starter on the roster not named Michael King. After gaining his footing, he pitched to a 1.71 ERA and provided over five innings per start in June. Such a performance doesn't eliminate the Padres' need for starting pitching but at least helps to mitigate the severity of it. Things have been different since the start of July, however. 

In his last three starts, Buehler has worked only 11 innings and allowed 20 earned runs. That obviously represents a sharp deviation from his previous form, but compounded with the absence of four other starters (Randy Vásquez, Joe Musgrove, Lucas Giolito, and Nick Pivetta) and the names behind him reading Griffin Canning, Germán Marquez, and JP Sears, there's an onus on Buehler to pitch more akin to a second or third starter, unreasonable an ask as that may be in 2026.

Like Merrill, though, Buehler's impact on the trade deadline is twofold. Either he gets sorted and begins to provide the volume that he proved capable of in the months prior to July, or he continues to implode in a manner that brings his roster spot into question. The former takes at least some of the pressure off of Preller to acquire multiple starting-capable arms ahead of Aug. 3. The latter calls Buehler's roster spot into question and further amplifies the team's need for volume out of their rotation.

Jake Cronenworth, 2B

At his best, Cronenworth isn't of the same caliber of hitter as Merrill. However, he does come from the secondary group of hitters that has been such a crucial part of the roster over the past couple of years. When the Padres are going right on offense, it includes contributions from those outside of Tatis, Merrill, and Machado. It goes without saying that their deadline approach is going to hinge on offensive output and, as such, is going to require those secondary contributions to manifest. 

Cronenworth represents the most essential of those secondary bats. While names like France or Andujar are important, the team has played most of the year without their keystone mainstay in Cronenworth. The early returns since his return are encouraging at least; thus far in July, Cronenworth has slashed .320/.333/.480 with a 126 wRC+. He hasn't demonstrated his typical patient approach as he regains his footing, but there's been some impact there. It's the kind of impact that could shape the approach to the deadline in a manner not all that dissimilar from Merrill.

While we've seen the other end of the spectrum from Cronenworth in the last few seasons, a return to his form of yesteryear would be a boon unlike any other other on the roster. As such, it feels quite clear that one Cronenworth-based outcome sends the Padres in a much healthier direction than the other.