Padres Are Somehow Surviving the Failures of Their "Big 3"

[Brendan Dentino]

The May 18 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers is indicative of the 2026 Padres.

Designated hitter Miguel Andujar hit a first-inning solo home run. Michael King, a potential first-time All-Star, pitched seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits and striking out nine. All-world reliever Jason Adam set up all-world closer Mason Miller and: ballgame. Friars win 1-0. 

It’s another instance of elite pitching and unsung veterans carrying the team, with the Padres “Big 3” of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill contributing little. They went a combined 1-9 with one walk. It’s another instance of wondering what’s going on with the Padres trio of stars. As of that win, their combined OPS this season was .592—an OPS lower than .700, let alone .600, is considered below average—and between them they’ve hit all of ten home runs. Tatis accounts for none of them.

The explanation of “It’s early” becomes less convincing and satisfactory the closer we get to June, so it’s worth diving into what, exactly, is the problem. Looming over their performances, with nearly $700 million owed to them over the course of their contracts, is a disheartening question. Are they having down seasons, or is this who they are? More importantly, it’s hard to see how the Padres keep pace in a stacked National League without their best players producing a combined -0.1 bWAR.

But there's hope.

Fernando Tatis JR., RF

Of the Padres' underperforming stars, Tatis' case is the most perplexing. How can someone in the top 1% in all of baseball in hard-hit percentage not have a home run? How does someone with elite exit velocity, good barrel rate, and consistent bat speed have only six extra-base hits? How does someone who batted .400 with two home runs and 11 RBI in March’s World Baseball Classic forget how to hit in April and May? 

The internet abounds with swing and stats analyses, hot takes, and conspiracy theories, with the more incisive commentators pointing to his batted ball profile and his chase rate. The latter is straightforward. He’s chasing more balls out of the zone and he’s hitting those pitches less, meaning his power goes untapped. I’m sure many a San Diegan have yelled at Tatis through their TVs this season to stop swinging at everything. It’s far easier said than done, but for a hitter as talented as Tatis this should be a relatively simple in-season adjustment. 

His batted ball profile is the true head-scratcher. His pull-air percentage is almost half of what it was last year and nearly a fourth of what it was in 2021, when he hit 42 home runs and was arguably the best young player in baseball. Concomitantly, his groundball rates are way up and his average launch angle is way down. It’s a bizarre profile. This year, Tatis may be the most powerful slap hitter in baseball history.

The YouTube channel Made the Cut attributes this to a drastic change in Tatis’ batting stance. Beginning the season, his feet were are wider apart,  and he also closed his stance, which made pulling the ball much more difficult. It appears that Tatis used this new, closed stance in the WBC, when he launched a dramatic grand slam to left field against Venezuela, but perhaps the lower quality of pitching in that tournament didn’t expose this weakness. 

Interestingly and encouragingly, Tatis used his old, open stance against the Dodgers on Monday night. In his first at-bat against Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tatis smoked a 111.3-mph line drive to the pull side, albeit right at shortstop Mookie Betts. He was also the only one of the Big 3 with a hit.

Tatis remains one of, if not the best defensive right fielder in baseball. With his reverting to a familiar stance, the dynamic and elite Tatis might be right around the corner. 

Manny Machado, 3B

Tatis is in his age-27 season, typically a player’s peak, which makes his fall off so frustrating. Machado, on the other hand, turns 34 this summer and has played in the bigs since he was 19 years old. There are a lot of miles on his odometer, although it’d be unfair to say at this point that Machado is suffering age-related regression. 

Last year, he played 159 games and produced 4.1 bWAR. It was his best season since 2022. The intervening years weren’t bad, either. The last time Machado produced less than 2.7 bWAR was in 2018. In a piece for Padres Mission last month, N.B. Lindberg pinpointed Machado’s shortcomings this season.

"Machado is walking at an incredible clip to start the season. His 15.5% BB% is almost double his career figure of 8.2% and ranks 19th in the league. The spike in walks isn’t a fluke either. He is currently sporting a 22.9% out-of-zone swing rate and a 66.8% in-zone swing rate. For a player whose career figures in those categories are 29.1% and 66.9%, respectively, Machado’s newfound patience suggests an overhaul in approach. 

In a vacuum, swinging at fewer balls is almost always a good thing. Walks are good. As are favorable counts. And it’s much easier to drive a strike past an outfielder than a pitch a few inches off the plate. However, baseball is not played in a vacuum, and what is usually a good development may be robbing Machado of what made him a special hitter in the first place."

Unlike with Tatis, though, Machado’s defensive prowess has degraded, and there aren't many recent glimmers of hope offensively. In the last five games up that 1-0 victory over the Dodgers, Machado recorded just two hits, one of them a double. As Lindberg summarized, “it appears that Machado’s decision to rein in chase has inadvertently reined in his power stroke.” Like Tatis, Machado may want and the Padres may need him to return to a familiar approach.

Jackson Merrill, CF

Last year, a family filed into the row in front of me at a San Diego Wave game. Even though we were at a women’s soccer game, the little boy in the family wore a Jackson Merrill jersey. I got chatting with his parents, and at some point I asked the boy what he wants to be when he grows up. “Jackson Merrill!” he said, jumping up and down.

Such was the effect of Merrill's revelatory 2024 rookie season, when he improbably won down-ballot MVP votes at a demanding position he had never played before. Injuries diminished his sophomore campaign, though his struggles persist this season. On the surface, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why. 

“The issue with Merrill's early performance this year isn't even in the performance itself,” writes Randy Holt in a recent piece for Padres Mission. “It's the absence of an obvious explanation for why he's underperforming. Generally, one can look at a player's underlying trends and find a catalyst that speaks to the origins of the struggle. Matters of the approach are a particularly notable factor in performance variance. Merrill's case isn't so apparent, however.”

Holt goes on to explain that Merrill is both swinging harder and attacking pitches at a steeper angle, which may explain why his quantity and quality contact have diminished. It reminds me of Michael Scott's description of himself as a manager: "I work too hard, I care too much, and sometimes I can be too invested in my job."

Merrill is still a good player. After all, he is the most valuable of the Big 3 right now. But there's an even better player waiting to be unlocked with the right adjustments.

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Following the conclusion of their series with the Dodgers, the Padres now sit 1.5 games back in the NL West. Considering the Big 3's combined performance, that is an astonishing accomplishment, and it shows that the Pads aren't going anywhere in the playoff race. But the Atlanta Braves are on pace for 108 wins, the Philadelphia Phillies have woken up, the NL Central doesn't have a team under .500, and the Dodgers are the Dodgers. 

In Monday night's win, the Padres batted Miguel Andujar in the two-hole. He's on his fifth team in his career and has accumulated a career 2.8 bWAR. A big chuck of it has come this season. Behind him batted Gavin Sheets and his -1.7 career bWAR. The Padres have excellent pitching, particularly in the bullpen, but that's not the lineup that will get the Padres through the National League and back to the World Series. To do so, they'll need their most recognizable stars to live up their billing.

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