Padres Prospect Evolution: How Padres Mission's Top-20 Prospect List Changed In 2026

[Steve Drumwright]

With the end of the minor-league season upon us, it is time to look back at the progress—or lack thereof—of prospects in the San Diego Padres’ system.

While it is well-documented that the Padres have the worst minor-league system in MLB, there are some players who jumped into the prospect picture that Friars fans should be excited about. One player who remained a constant was Ethan Salas, the No. 1 prospect who recently made his MLB debut.

For this exercise, we are going by Padres Mission’s Top 20 list from the preseason and comparing it with the last one we did in August, coming off the trade deadline and including the draft. There is a stark difference in how the lists look for a variety of reasons, including the players lost at the trade deadline.

Here is how the two lists look:

Preseason

1. Ethan Salas, C
2. Kash Mayfield, LHP
3. Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP
4. Bradgley Rodriguez, RHP
5. Miguel Mendez, RHP
6. Jagger Haynes, LHP
7. Humberto Cruz, RHP
8. Ty Harvey, C
9. Ryan Wideman, CF
10. Kale Fountain, OF
11. Romeo Sanabria, 1B
12. Jorge Quintana, SS
13. Lamar King Jr., C
14. Garrett Hawkins, RHP
15. Tirso Ornelas, OF
16. Kavares Tears, OF
17. Truitt Madonna, C
18. Deivid Coronil, SS
19. Eric Yost, RHP
20. Francis Pena, RHP

August Update

1. Ethan Salas, C
2. Ryan Wideman, CF
3. Coleman Borthwick, RHP
4. Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP
5. Ty Harvey, C
6. Kale Fountain, OF
7. Jorge Quintana, SS
8. Alex McCoy, LF
9. Braedon Karpathios, RF
10. Lamar King Jr., C
11. Elliot Lascelles, SS
12. Tucker Musgrove, RHP
13. Jagger Haynes, LHP
14. Jake Cunningham, OF
15. Truitt Madonna, C
16. Eric Yost, RHP
17. Winyer Chourio, RHP
18. Jesus Castro, RHP
19. Michael Salina, RHP
20. Rosman Verdugo, SS

Who Dropped Out?

A whopping 10 players are no longer on our Top 20 prospects list. One thing I will admit is that with Padres Mission just concluding our second season, we as a group are still getting a feel for some of the players in the system and what their value is.

That said, two players from our preseason list were traded at the deadline. Left-hander Kash Mayfield, who began as our No. 2 prospect and held that spot, was dealt to the Detroit Tigers in the Casey Mize trade. The other is right-hander Miguel Mendez, who was hurt much of the season and was No. 5 at the start of the year, went to the San Francisco Giants for left-hander Robbie Ray. Another player graduated from prospect status in right-handed reliever Bradgley Rodriguez, now a key component of the Padres’ bullpen. A fourth player, right-hander Humberto Cruz, was the No. 7 prospect, but had been arrested in an immigration case where he helped transport people illegally into the U.S. and pled guilty to misdemeanor charges.

Six players had their prospect star fade this season. First baseman Romeo Sanabria (No. 11 to begin the year), right-handed reliever Garrett Hawkins (No. 14), outfielder Tirso Ornelas (No. 15), outfielder Kavares Tears (No. 16), shortstop Deivid Coronil (No. 18) and right-hander Francis Pena (No. 20) all dropped from the Top 20. With the exception of Coronil, who was injured all season, it was more of other players surpassing them as none had a truly bad season.

Who Jumped Up?

Now, for the exciting part. Let’s start with the draft picks. First-round selection Coleman Borthwick, who just made his pro debut with the Low-A Lake Elsinore Storm, checks in at No. 3. Second-rounder Elliot Lascelles is No. 11 (and will certainly move up in our next round of rankings). Lascelles finished the regular season for the Storm with a .321/.406/.429 slash line in 15 games.

Three players came from off the board right to the middle of the pack. That group is led by outfielder Alex McCoy (now at No. 8), who is joined by outfielder Braedon Karpathios (No. 9) and right-handed reliever Tucker Musgrove (No. 12), another player who should be higher in our rankings upon the next update.

McCoy and Karpathios are both undrafted free agents. McCoy earned a promotion to Double-A San Antonio and finished with a .278/.355/.467 slash line with 31 doubles, 19 homers (a system best) and 71 RBIs in 123 games between the Missions and High-A Fort Wayne. In 25 games at Double-A, he slashed .314/.360/.467 with four homers and 16 RBIs. Karpathios was just promoted to Triple-A El Paso, has a season slash line of .262/.350/.432, having hit 17 homers with 73 RBIs in 126 games entering the final week of the season. Musgrove, who finished the season on the injured list, has split this year between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio, appearing in 34 games with a 4.19 ERA and a 42.8% strikeout rate and 15.7% walk rate.

Outfielder Jake Cunningham is No. 14 after doing a lot of damage for Fort Wayne and then getting bumped up to San Antonio. He had a .269/.369/.560 slash line with 15 homers, including a three-homer game, and 35 RBIs in 57 games for the TinCaps, then slashed .301/.370/.459 with four homers and 26 RBIs for the Missions in 39 games.

The final four players moved from outside the Top 20 into the final four slots. Those would be right-handed starters Winyer Chourio (No. 17) and Jesus Castro (No. 18), right-hander Michael Salina (No. 19), who battled injuries this year coming back from Tommy John surgery, and infielder Rosman Verdugo (No. 20). Chourio had a combined 3.31 ERA between Lake Elsinore and Fort Wayne, with a 14% walk rate and 29.9% strikeout rate, while Castro had a 4.18 ERA and a 7.9% walk rate and 25.4 strikeout rate. Salina, a fourth-round draft pick in 2024, appeared in just seven games with an 8.22 ERA, with a walk rate of 12.2% and strikeout rate of 19.5% in 7⅔ innings. Verdugo has spent the last two seasons at Fort Wayne and slashed .225/.340/.389 in 109 games this year, then got a brief promotion to Triple-A El Paso this past weekend.

View full article