Randy Holt

It took a few months of a rather murky timeline, but Yu Darvish finally made his 2025 debut for the San Diego Padres on Monday night. The 38-year-old fought elbow inflammation during the spring exhibition slate that cost him over half the year. The Padres were content to let Darvish largely handle his own rehab process, which likely led to the slow ramp-up. Nevertheless, his return was set to deliver some stability to a Padres rotation in need of it given the absence of Michael King in an already thin group. Stability, however, will likely have to wait a few starts. Clearly working within a tight window with respect to pitch count, Darvish delivered only 3 2/3 innings of work against the Arizona Diamondbacks in a frustrating outing against a reeling division rival. Darvish's start left him with the loss to kick off his campaign in a game where the offense couldn't muster much against Zac Gallen and his 5.45 ERA. The focus is on Darvish, though, and despite the abbreviated appearance, the Padres are hoping that it'll set the course for a strong second half out of one of their key veteran pitchers. And there were, at least, some positives to take away from the start despite the ultimate outcome. Darvish threw 63 pitches in his start, leaning heavily on the curveball (22 percent usage), sweeper (19 percent), and slider (also 19 percent). Statcast had Darvish at eight different pitch types in the start, though, and everything except the knuckle-curve was thrown at least five times in terms of raw pitch count. Of course, the two don't always jive given the volume of pitch types Darvish is purported to throw. Nonetheless, this is how things shook out in his debut: The command actually looked pretty decent for Darvish in start No. 1. He threw 41 of his 63 pitches for strikes (65 percent) and he was able to work to a 39 percent whiff rate. The sweeper did much of the work there, as he not only generated the highest rate of swings with that pitch (26 percent) but also the highest whiff rate (63 percent). The sweeper and slider were each able to garner called strikes or swinging strikes 58 percent of the time. So, the stuff was very much present. As was the velocity. Darvish touched 96 mph with each of his four-seam and sinker offerings, averaging 95.1 and 94.2 MPH with each of the two, respectively. Each of those would represent an increase in his velocity on the two pitches from 2024. We're obviously looking at just one start rather than a collection of them, but it's an encouraging development regardless. And that really should be the takeaway. There was rust; the above visual is indicative of some inconsistency in locating pitches with confidence. That he was able to generate swings and whiffs while demonstrating upper-tier velocity should certainly check in as a positive, though. Now, it's about stretching the outing a little bit more. We're likely going to see a similar restriction in his next start. The aim is, undoubtedly, to weaponize Darvish atop the rotation down the stretch in the wake of King's absence and some other inconsistencies within the rotation. With maybe one more start to go ahead of the All-Star break, you can bet Mike Shildt will remain conservative in order to allow this short stretch to serve as a springboard toward more impact in the season's second half. It was a solid debut, to be sure. Now, the aim becomes building on it into something more sustainable after so much time missed. View full article

The San Diego Padres won a game and, subsequently, a series against the Texas Rangers on Sunday evening. That, in itself, is a positive given how things have gone for the last month-and-a-half. More important, though, was the role that Fernando Tatis Jr. played in the win. We've discussed Tatis at length in the last couple of months. After a scorching start to the year, he's fallen off virtually everywhere but his defense. That's led to some speculation on his approach and his mechanics as we wonder exactly what needs to get sorted in order to get him back on that superstar trajectory on which he placed himself out of the gate. Sunday's game gave us a glimpse of what Tatis looks like when he's going right, however. Across five plate appearances against the Rangers, Tatis reached four times. He walked twice and recorded a single and a double, with the latter serving to knock in one of the Padres' four runs on the evening. The walk component isn't necessarily a surprise; Tatis has maintained a steady approach that has allowed him to continue to reach base even in the midst of these months-long struggles. The contact, however, is what leads us to recover a little bit of confidence that the superstar is still in there in 2025. At 106.7 MPH, Tatis had the game's hardest hit ball. It was a first-inning single off a 98.9 MPH pitch that carried a .980 expected batting average. After one of his walks in the third, he came back in the fourth with a 102.2 MPH double that knocked in what would be the winning run for San Diego: That one was against an off-speed pitch (something Tatis has struggled against during this stretch) and carried a .920 xBA. It was absolutely laced. Both swings — at 84.8 and 77.6 MPH — checked in well above Tatis' average swing speed this year, indicating a little bit of confidence. Perhaps he's found a little bit of juice after being named to the National League All-Star roster. Whether it's actually an increased confidence or starting to lock in, the challenge for Tatis will now be to carry such a performance over into the coming days. It's not the first time since he went cold that we've seen Tatis have a good game in isolation. He had a four-hit effort back on June 15th. But, he's also recorded hits in seven of his last eight games with some walks mixed in. That follows a stretch where he failed to record a hit in seven of 10 games. It's obviously something we'll be keeping a keen eye on moving forward. There's some question as to the validity of Tatis' inclusion in Atlanta given his struggles since mid-May. But his fWAR, at 3.5, doesn't lie. Some sustained offensive production, though, could drive even that figure up in conjunction with his defensive excellence and help him regain his status as one of the league's top hitters. This all feels like a uniquely baseball thing. It isn't what Fernando Tatis Jr. did on Sunday. It's what he does next. View full article

With just a few weeks to go until Major League Baseball's trade deadline on July 31, it's difficult to project exactly where the San Diego Padres will stand when the smoke clears. No stranger to impact moves, A.J. Preller finds himself with a team that has been middling since May and limited resources with which to operate. That the Padres don't have a lot of prospect capital with which to work is courtesy of Preller's own hand. And while it's difficult to underestimate an executive with a reputation for the bold, the reality is that this is a team sitting extremely top heavy in the farm system. If top prospects Leo De Vries & Ethan Salas are, indeed, untouchable (to say nothing of any continued budget "woes"), then we can assume the focus is going to live on the margins where the cost is more digestible. Of the clarity we do have, we know that the team is in the market for a catcher. At -0.8 fWAR, only the Washington Nationals have gotten less out of the position than Elías Díaz & Martín Maldonado have provided San Diego. And, despite what work Luis Campusano has done as a hitter in Triple-A this year, their reluctance for a shake-up involving the former top prospect is indicative of his lack of inclusion in the position moving forward. Considering the factors involved, there's an increasingly clear name worth targeting for the Padres: the Chicago Cubs' Reese McGuire. A former top prospect in Toronto, McGuire has become something of a journeyman in the last few seasons. He was traded to the Chicago White Sox in 2022 and caught on with Boston via another trade later that year. He was designated for assignment around this time last year before reaching free agency and signing a minor league deal with the Cubs over the winter. Given their tandem of Miguel Amaya & Carson Kelly, he was there to serve as depth. But with Amaya on the shelf due to an oblique injury, McGuire has been pressed into big league duty the last handful of weeks. The showing has been rather impressive. As of July 7, McGuire is carrying a slash of .237/.262/.508. That latter figure is the important one. The slug has been the most noteworthy component of his offensive game between the .508 slugging percentage and a .296 isolated power figure through more than 60 plate appearances. His five home runs in that sample are nearly as much as he recorded across the past three seasons combined (seven). And, while you'd like the average and on-base numbers to look a bit better, Díaz and Maldonado are combining to hit .190 and reach base at around the same clip. So, you're getting modestly better production from an on-base standpoint but a big boost on the power side. Then, there's the defensive component to consider. Statcast has McGuire above average in framing, blocking, and throwing. The Padres' tandem, meanwhile, sits below average in framing (-1 in Framing Runs for Díaz, -2 for Maldonado). They're mixed in the blocking game (Díaz at 1 Blocks Above Average, Maldonado at -8) and in throwing (2 CS Above Average for Díaz, -6 for Maldonado). So, while you're looking at a guy who has succeeded in a small sample, he's also one that can offer a fairly significant upgrade to at least half of the current catching tandem. With the added benefit of the bump you get on the power he's offering as a hitter at present. There is, of course, a caveat to this. A trade of McGuire would be heavily dependent on Miguel Amaya's timeline in returning from his injury. He's started a throwing & hitting program but isn't expected to return to game action until after the All-Star break. That'd be a pretty narrow timeframe for the Padres to get something done, but should everything progress as expected, the Cubs aren't really going to have a choice. The likelihood of carrying three catchers on an already-thin bench would be foolhardy. Eventually, McGuire is going to have to go. Teams don't always love to acquire a catcher in-season, but factoring in his power and defensive performance against what you're getting from (in particular) Maldonado, it would behoove the Padres to give him a long look once the time comes. View full article

One of the more impressive feats that the San Diego Padres have been able to pull off in 2025 is within their rotation. Already a starting group that lacked depth, injuries (both new and pre-existing) have led Mike Shildt to cobble together a rotation as best he could. And, somehow, it's hung in there halfway through the season. As of this writing, the Padres sit in the top half of the league in ERA (3.92), FIP (4.02), and strikeout rate (22.6 percent). That's made all the more impressive considering the group is currently rolling without Michael King and has yet to see a start from Yu Darvish. Perhaps more impressively is that they're doing all of that with the start-to-start variance of one Randy Vásquez. Acquired from the New York Yankees as a part of the Juan Soto trade, Vásquez struggled quite a bit across 20 starts last year, with both an ERA and a FIP that lingered around five. The spring absence of Darvish and Matt Waldron pressed him into rotation duty at the top level to start the year. And through 17 starts, he's managed to hang onto the job despite some abbreviated outings wrought by questionable command. It's the command that's been the issue for Vásquez throughout the year. Already without strikeout stuff (13.1 K%), his 10.7 percent walk rate is one of the five highest among qualifying starting pitchers. And it's not just about walking hitters, either. It's about sustained plate appearances which begets high pitch counts which begets short outings; eight of Vásquez's 17 starts have gone fewer than five innings. The good news is that he's started to figure out some of the command stuff: That he's been able to drive up the Zone% steadily speaks to the fact that he's been working around it more frequently. It's been an imperfect process, but the walk rates from the first three months of the year read as follows: 15.6 percent in March/April, 6.8 percent in May, and 9.4 percent in June. You'd obviously like to see a continuation of the improvement that you saw between the season's first two months, but the fact that there's still a steep drop from the season's opening month reads as encouraging. Instead, the frustration with Vásquez has evolved into a something of a new issue revolving around his pitch selection: Now, obviously, part of the nature of being a starting pitcher is varying your usage depending on the opponent and what your feel may be on a given day. But, the distribution for Vásquez is an absolute mess. Even his cutter, which has been the primary pitch all year, has taken a back seat in more recent outings. Given that he was able to (somewhat) rein in the command woes, you'd expect this to look at least a little bit cleaner. Instead, this is indicative of a guy who is still trying to determine what his best offerings may be. When that's the case, you get a start like Vásquez had against the Cincinnati Reds last weekend. A few bloop hits were among the nine he surrendered against only two walks. The high hit volume put him in an early hole in allowing four earned runs across just 4 1/3 innings of work. When your command isn't pristine (something we should never expected from Vásquez) and you're uncomfortable with your usage, hitters aren't going to know what's coming. With Vásquez actually improving his command, that led to more swings than we might otherwise see which, in turn, led to additional hits that likely could have been avoided. But, without upper-tier stuff, that's going to be a byproduct of this process for Vásquez. He's harnessing his stuff but only on an in-between sort of level given the usage mess. For what it's worth, it does seem like there's an ideal mix for Vásquez, as indicated by his outcomes to date: By these metrics, the cutter, sinker, and sweeper have been Vásquez's most important offerings this year. The cutter for the whiff and stability it provides, the sinker that induces groundballs to pin down opposing averages, and the sweeper as a lone putaway offering. And it should probably come in that order to if we're thinking about standard sequencing. Utilize the cutter to get ahead before turning to the sinker and sweeper as your out pitches in different ways. Even if it's a different sequence, some logic in the distribution appears necessary for Vásquez to start stringing together a level of consistency that we haven't seen yet. Getting the command on track was obviously an important step. Now, it's about taking that improved command and spinning it into a steady arsenal that Vásquez can feel comfortable with start to start. Only then might we start seeing some level of stability and, thus, a step toward him realizing his value within this San Diego Padres rotation. View full article

By the end of this week, there's a very good chance that San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado will have recorded the 2,000th hit of his career. With 1,994 hits going into Wednesday's doubleheader, he continues to be one of the more impactful hitters across the landscape of Major League Baseball. It's an impending moment worthy of celebration, but also an opportunity to take stock of the present and examine Machado's projection moving forward. First, there's the matter of the 2025 context. Machado is having an excellent season, as evidenced by his chance to start the All-Star Game in Atlanta later this month. Despite a slow start on the power side, he's picked it up to become a steadying force in a Padres lineup that has lacked it since the middle of May. He has been a top-five player among qualifying third basemen this year by fWAR (2.5), while turning in a 135 wRC+ that demonstrates his well-above-average production. If we were looking at 2025 from a pure hits standpoint, then Manny Machado would be a top 10 player in the sport. His 93 hits sit in that 10th spot, just narrowly behind names like Shohei Ohtani & Bobby Witt Jr. Obviously, we don't evaluate players by hit volume alone, but it does speak to the consistency with which Machado is able to not only get balls in play but also make them work for him. He has a career BABIP of .299 courtesy of his ability to lift the baseball (41.6 GB% for his career). Even as his power wavers (seemingly) depending on the month, his pure hit tool should continue to carry him to high hit numbers for at least the foreseeable future. Which brings us to the broader context, both in terms of the significance of Machado reaching 2,000 hits and whether he can attain the next threshold(s) on a potential Hall of Fame journey. Let's discuss the general significance and organizational context first. Only 297 players in Major League Baseball's history have amassed at least 2,000 hits. With his present 1,994, Machado ranks 301st in total hits. If he's able to replicate his first half and turn in another 90 or so hits, he can move closer to 250 on the all-time list. You're talking about 300 or fewer names among 20,000 or so that have touched a major league field. Even if you wanted to take the overgeneralized numbers instead of the specific ones, that means that Machado is among the game's top two percent in hits recorded. Hits, on their own, obviously simplify the complex nature of a player. But there's a consistency factor involved when you're talking about that high a volume of hits. It's already at an elite level and becomes even more so when you pare it down to a Padre-centric focus. Of his total to this point, 943 of Machado's hits have come in a Padres uniform. That trails only Gene Richards (994), Dave Winfield (1,134), Garry Templeton (1,135), and, obviously, Tony Gwynn (3,141). While there is, obviously (again), zero chance of Machado reaching the top of the Padres' hits leaderboard, it stands to reason that he could sit behind Gwynn only by the time 2026 reaches its end. At worst, you're talking about the fourth-best hitter in the organization's history. As for the projection portion, MLB.com's AJ Cassavell did plenty of legwork in looking at what hitting that next benchmark looks like for Machado. He specifically notes that the average number of hits needed for Machado to reach 3,000 in a Padres uniform is 118 through the end of his contract (which runs through 2033). Considering his lowest output in a non-pandemic year in the last decade was 140, it seems a relatively easily attainable feat for Machado to reach before it's all said and done, health factors notwithstanding. Of course, this also somewhat buries the lede because 3,000 hits isn't the only mark toward which Machado is striving. Also within Cassavell's article is a reminder that Machado has also already hit 350 home runs in his career (and is also on pace for 500). By eclipsing 2,000 hits at some point in the next week, he'll accomplish something that only 11 other players in big league history have done at his age. Eight of said players are in the Hall, two are locks, and the other is Alex Rodriguez. Both the hit and the homer mark remain entirely within reach for Machado. With that, you're not only talking about a legendary player for the San Diego Padres organization but one on an inarguable Hall of Fame trajectory. Given that the power has been a rare source of inconsistency in the last couple of seasons for Machado, the 500 home run angle doesn't read quite as solid. But 3,000 hits is rarified air in itself; only 33 people have reached that one. The minimum total required to reach that point being what it is leaves us to believe that he'll hit it with the power side becoming something of a bonus. Regardless of which mark he does or does not hit, it's difficult to overstate what reaching this next benchmark will indicate about Machado as a player. It's easy to get cynical about "hits" and what they do or do not mean in the age of analytics, but there's something to be said about the consistency and stability requisite to such an accomplishment. You're not only affirming your status among the all-time greats from a league standpoint, but you're entrenching yourself directly next to the all-time great within the Padres organization. His polarizing nature is a subject for another day (and another fanbase). Manny Machado has been one of the game's best hitters for more than a decade, and within the next week, he'll have yet another credential to back up such an idea. View full article

Nobody is suggesting that the stretch of time since the middle of May has revealed anything special about Fernando Tatis Jr. The San Diego Padres right fielder remains a superstar player with a standard set by multiple years of upper-tier performance. However, it's also fairly clear that since that point the Padres have not been deploying the same player in their lineup as they did in the year's earlier portion. Tatis Jr. came out of the gate absolutely blazing. Serving as the team's leadoff hitter, he went on a scorching run of play at the plate that propelled San Diego out to a start that had them hanging with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in one of the league's most competitive division. But, for whatever reason since May 15th, Tatis has not been the same player. Sure, we've speculated about mechanical issues or approach changes, and we'll offer a few other suggestions before this text runs out. What's interesting, though, is that despite the lull since mid-May, Tatis' output still remains one of the league's best from a cumulative standpoint. The following is where Fernando Tatis Jr. sat at each end of our circled date on the calendar: Through May 15th: .308/.383/.508, 16.7 K%, 10.6 BB%, .252 ISO, 163 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR There were 163 qualifying hitters in that early stretch of the year. Tatis' average ranked 16th, and both his on-base percentage and isolated slugging ranked 21st. His wRC+ checked in at No. 10, and his overall Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs, pegged him as a top-five player. The defense helped to supplement the offense, but it's not as if the production was pinning him down in any meaningful way; he was one of the league's best hitters as of May 15th. Since May 16th: .205/.314/.325, 17.7 K%, 12.0 BB%, .119 ISO, 87 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR Again, nothing surprising here. Tatis' game has fallen off severely from an offensive standpoint. While he's still managed to work his way on base via the walk — and simultaneously avoided turning a solid approach into a ballooned strikeout rate — the power has dissolved. Among the 169 players that qualify, Tatis' average is 155th, his on-base percentage ranks 107th, and his isolated power ranks 119th. It's true that fWAR's perceptive eyes still have him hanging in at 64th, but that defensive component is doing much more heavy lifting than it had to back in March & April. Interestingly, though, such a barren offensive stretch hasn't done much to hurt him in the broader picture of 2025. 2025 Overall: .258/.349/.445, 17.2 K%, 11.3 BB%, .187 ISO, 125 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR The most striking thing about the overall production for Tatis is in the WAR figure there. On the merits of that concept, he's been one of the top dozen position players in baseball. But, when you start picking apart the individual offensive components among the 158 players that qualify for the full season, it doesn't look nearly as rosy. His average is 81st, his on-base percentage is 50th, and his isolated power is 55th. If you were looking at wRC+, he's the 49th-best hitter in the sport in 2025. However, that's not necessarily our concern here. The aim is simply to look at the two sides of Tatis' season to date and see how much of the work that first half is doing for him. Or, at least, what's responsible for keeping him among the league leaders in overall value given what we've seen these last couple months. At first blush, it's a lot of work on the part of his March/April performance. That he's still well within the top half in terms of power, in particular, speaks to how strong the start was, to say nothing of the wRC+ data. That he's been able to maintain some value doesn't ring as quite surprising, however, as the approach has largely been maintained. In fact, many of the underlying components of Tatis have carried over. His swing rates, whiff rates, and contact rates are all steady. Which represents something very frustrating, but also speaks to the idea that the player we've seen since May 16th isn't entirely different from the one we saw before. He's not making quite as much hard contact, and he's hitting the ball on the ground just enough to hurt him in the box score seemingly every night out. That's led to a brutal .233 BABIP against a .319 mark he was able to post in the stretch prior. Regardless, it does lead us to the fairly obvious conclusion that Tatis is still hanging in there among the league's best hitters due to his outcomes before May 16th, especially as far as the power aspect goes, even if there is some reason to be positive given some of the underlying stuff. If we're looking at just how Fernando Tatis Jr. remains a top-12 player heading into July, though, his defense is primarily responsible for that—maybe even exclusively considering how the year has transpired. Tatis sits eighth in Fielding Run Value (9), trailing only Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela (13), Chicago's Pete Crow-Armstrong (12), and Seattle's Julio Rodríguez (10) in total defensive value. Both his range and his arm have him hanging in the top-15 or so defenders, regardless of position. So, it's not so much that one half of the year is doing more for his stats from an offensive standpoint. It's that he's done enough on the defensive side to compensate for whatever shortcomings might be present in his bat. Nevertheless, the calendar flipping over to July is an opportunity for Tatis Jr to clear the slate and get a little bit of lift back in his swing. If everything else holds, luck at the plate has to shift back in his favor at some point. And, if not, he'll always have a chance to impress with the glove. View full article

Despite coming out of the gate firing, the San Diego Padres spent the second quarter of 2025 stumbling all over the field. Their offense cratered for a time; their pitching faltered in those rare moments when the offense provided support. There were injuries. There were suspensions. There were fringe players designated for assignment. They might have emerged from it in solid standing in the broader National League playoff picture, but it wasn't as easy as April led us to believe it would be. Nonetheless, it remains a key benchmark for the 2025 season. The Padres hit their 81st game of the season over the weekend, marking the official midway point (even if we won't recognize the "second half" until after the All-Star break) of the campaign. With that, it seemed appropriate to take stock of some of the standouts on this roster to date (for better and worse). We'll keep it fairly standard in recognizing those names, with our last one projecting into the season's second half. The theme, though, is stability. San Diego has somewhat lacked it in the first half, given the rollercoaster performance, the injuries, and the lack of depth rearing its ugly head. With that, we're leaning on the concept to identify some of the key components. Most Valuable Hitter: Manny Machado We'll take some time this week to put Manny Machado's excellence into context, but it's hard to overstate the value he's brought to this roster. As the team started their mid-May offensive lull, Machado upped his game, particularly on the power side. Coming out of the gate relatively quiet in that respect (.144 ISO), Machado turned in a .196 ISO in May and a .229 figure thus far in June. Even when you focus more on the comprehensive rather than an individual component like power, it's a rather flattering picture for Machado. By wOBA (.365) and wRC+ (138), he's been the team's most valuable hitter. Anyway you slice it, he's been the most valuable hitter. Not that this rings as any sort of surprise. But given a relatively quiet start on the power side, in conjunction with the blazing starts from Fernando Tatis Jr & Jackson Merrill, it kind of is. Machado's a future Hall of Fame player for a reason, though, and his stability in the wake of such massive struggles tells you everything you need to know. Honorable Mention: Gavin Sheets Most Valuable Pitcher: Nick Pivetta It's a bit of a surprise on a roster that features Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Robert Suárez to have Pivetta emerge as the team's most valuable arm. You could even take it a step further and include the standout performances out of the relief corps. But considering how volatile the first half has been for San Diego, you'd like a little bit of calm, a little bit of stability. Pivetta has given the team that. Through 16 starts, Pivetta has averaged 5.8 innings. He has a 3.36 ERA and a 3.27 FIP. It's the best work he's done in his career from a run prevention standpoint. There have been some signs of regression the whole way through (11.9 Barrel%, 36th percentile chase rate), but he's worked extremely effectively and provided some respite for a bullpen that has had to work heavily, depending on which starter takes the bump. While it has been imperfect, it has been immensely valuable. Honorable Mention: Adrian Morejón Most Surprising Player: Stephen Kolek Stability is a recurring theme here, given the Padres' performance since mid-May. Already shorthanded in the rotation to start the year (sans Yu Darvish & Matt Waldron), the team also lost Michael King to a nerve issue that should keep him out until at least the All-Star break. Factor in Dylan Cease's struggles in a given outing & Randy Vásquez's lack of command, and the Padres just needed someone to give them an ounce of it out of the gate. Enter Stephen Kolek. Through 10 starts, Kolek has pitched to a 3.95 ERA and 4.07 FIP with low strikeout numbers (17.4 K%) and a walk rate that could be characterized as just okay (8.3 percent). But he's never been a particularly high-punchout guy and has done two things extraordinarily well: he's avoided barrels and gotten the ball on the ground. Kolek is currently working with a Barrel% in the 84th percentile (5.7 percent) and a GB% in the 81st percentile (50.0 percent). There have been some wonky starts mixed in there, but considering the surface work that Kolek did as a reliever last year (5.21 ERA), it's surprising just how steady he's been as a backend option. Honorable Mention: Gavin Sheets Most Disappointing Player: Kyle Hart Xander Bogaerts was the easy play, but he started to show some signs of life in June. And it might seem silly to pick on someone like Hart, but he serves as our most disappointing player for the same reason that Kolek landed opposite him on the spectrum. With so little rotation depth, Hart's return from the KBO was supposed to be that sort of stabilizing presence to fill out the back half of the rotation. Instead, he's made just six starts and given up five runs in half of them. The home run ball has been a particular source of woe for Hart. His 16.0 HR/FB ratio was the worst among team starters before his second demotion, with nothing else happening in his skill set to compensate. Things haven't been much better in El Paso, as he's pitched to a 4.67 ERA and 5.61 FIP, so we may not see him again anytime soon. Honorable Mention: Xander Bogaerts Most Likely To Succeed (In The Second Half): Jackson Merrill In between a hamstring injury and a concussion, Merrill has done very little to make us doubt that the superstardom he indicated as a rookie was anything other than real. When healthy, he's been among the Padres' most consistent hitters. To date, Merrill's slash includes a .301 average and a .354 on-base percentage, with a .353 wOBA that trails only Machado as the team's best. Where Merrill could stand to improve is on the power side. His .161 ISO does represent a step back from last year's .208 mark, but some mild tweaks to the approach could serve as a springboard there. Regardless, now that Merrill's injury issues appear to be isolated, things behind him, he could be in store for a big second half. Honorable Mention: Ryan Bergert View full article

Jose Iglesias is not having a good season. As of this writing, he's turned in a wRC+ of 66 for a San Diego Padres team in need of supplementary offense. He's at a -3 Outs Above Average for a San Diego Padres team in need of stability on defense. Despite a strong showing in Queens for the New York Mets as recently as last year, he's been sort of a dud off the bench for the Padres. None of that mattered on Sunday, of course. Iglesias not only knocked in all three runs to help the Friars take the series over the Kansas City Royals, he provided the walk-off in the ninth inning that sent everyone home happy. It was a brief respite from what has otherwise been a year-long void at the plate in Jose Iglesias form: What's notable about the walk-off fielder's choice is that Iglesias merely put a ball in play. With Luis Arráez standing on third, Xander Bogaerts on second, and just one out on the board, the Royals drew the infield in. Iglesias' chopper found Bobby Witt Jr, who didn't have time to nab Arráez at the plate. A ball in play got the job done. Perhaps that's something Iglesias should consider moving forward. To say the offense hasn't been there would qualify as something of an understatement. His 44-percent-below-league-average wRC+ is indicative of that alone. Only 21 players among the 268 with at least 150 plate appearances are lower in that regard. Elsewhere on the stat sheet, he's sitting at a .232 average, a .297 on-base percentage, and an isolated power of just .085. In general, there is some value in his approach. His 16.3 percent strikeout rate is tied for second-best on the team behind only Arráez. So, in theory, balls have been put in play by Iglesias. But avoiding strikeouts isn't necessarily the same thing as having an approach. If anything, the way Iglesias has stepped into the box thus far has been in avoidance of striking out rather than creating offense. There is such a thing as being too patient at the plate. Iglesias' overall swing rate is down more than six percent from last year (46.0 percent). He's cut his chase rate down by a modest two percent but has lost his swing rate in the zone by almost exactly 11 percent (52.4 percent). As a result, his current K% is four percent higher than his career average along with all of his swing trends dropping to varying degrees. And therein lies the problem: Iglesias isn't simply being patient. He's taking strikes. If it were as simple as taking pitches and working your way on base, Iglesias would have a walk rate higher than 5.6 percent, which is ahead of only Arráez. Instead, he's hanging around at a 23.9 percent called strike rate that trails only Chase Meidroth & Alex Verdugo among hitters in that same 150 PA group, as well as a 31.6 CSW% that is one of the league's 10 highest. Now, swinging the bat more, in a vacuum, isn't necessarily going to create more offense for Iglesias and the Padres. While he's never been a high-impact swinger, a 0.8 Barrel% & 23.3 Hard-Hit% are low even by his standards. But, it's fairly clear that patience alone isn't a virtue for his game. Opposing pitchers are already hitting the zone at a 53.2 percent clip. There are opportunities here for Iglesias to get the bat through the zone with a little more frequency. A reevaluation of the zone can help more balls find their way in play and, ideally, lead pitchers to work around the zone a little bit more. That would, in turn, allow Iglesias to turn that keen eye into something valuable via the walk. This is all hypothetical and relatively oversimplified, of course. But, last year's numbers can give us a little bit of insight into what a more active version of Jose Iglesias looks like. He swung at a 52.5 percent rate overall and a 63.3 percent rate inside of the strike zone. The result? A lower strikeout rate, some batted ball luck, and a wRC+ of 137. It might be unreasonable to expect him to replicate it exactly, but there's recent precedent for additional value in his bat given his overall ability to make contact. It's a simple fix that isn't guaranteed to work given his already-modest impact at the plate. But, as the trade deadline draws ever closer, it becomes inevitable that the Padres are going to bring in some new blood for the bench. A player that appears to be well-liked in the clubhouse and possesses no shortage of veteran experience could be safe, but he could further help his case by serving as a creator more at the plate rather than a spectator. View full article

It's difficult to criticize the season Jackson Merrill is turning in thus far in 2025. It might even be unnecessary. The San Diego Padres' star centerfielder has worked through a hamstring injury and a week-long stay on the concussion IL to turn in a .303/.347/.474 line, a bump in the walk rate, and, ultimately, a 130 wRC+. When healthy, he's been very, very good. However, a Padres squad that has struggled to produce runs consistently over the past month needs him to be even better, specifically in terms of his power production. It's a tough ask for a player who has dealt with a non-contact injury and a concussion to date. But it was a bar Merrill set last year when he turned in a .208 isolated power figure and hit 24 home runs. This year, the former sits at .171 and the latter at just five. With the Padres sitting 27th in the league in that regard (.130 ISO team-wide), a bump in the power game from Merrill seems like an obvious route toward collective offensive improvement. Not that it's solely on Merrill to sort out the power side. That we know it's there, given the upside and the output from 2024. Where has it gone, exactly? A 37 percent drop in ISO isn't insignificant, and Merrill has seen a notable decline in Hard-Hit% between 2024 (43.9) and 2025 (38.2), whether there's a clear explanation — and, as such, an apparent fix — remains to be seen. The approach, in a broad sense, has regressed a bit: He's been a bit more aggressive, both inside and outside the zone. In doing so, he's subjected himself to more whiffs and less overall contact. While it's not anything drastic in terms of his 2024 trends, reigning in the discipline a bit could help him to realize some of that power upside more frequently. However, we can also refine this approach a little further. One possible explanation for the power decline is in the types of pitches at which Merrill is swinging. Off-speed pitches, in particular, represent a source of woe for Merrill in the small sample that has been his career. Merrill has been able to muster a slug against off-speed pitches just 25.9 percent of the time this year, compared to 47.7 vs. fastballs and 56.7 against breaking pitches. It's not an aberration either, as his expected slug against the pitch type is just 35.1 percent, nearly 20 points lower than his expected slug against either of the two other pitch types. Yet, Merrill is hacking at off-speed pitches more than any other pitch type: That's a Swing% of 65.6 against that pitch type, not only a drastic increase from 2024 (54.7), but also his highest rate against any of the three types by a significant margin. He's chasing (44.6 percent) and whiffing (28.8 percent) at that pitch pretty severely in comparison to the other two types. To say nothing of a 63.6 percent groundball rate when he does make contact. He's in the low 40s in GB% when the other two types of pitches are put into play. So, it's not only that he's having a tough time making contact to begin with, but it's also something that we can point to in pinning down his overall power output. If it were a situation where those numbers existed but he was minimizing the actual swings, then we probably wouldn't be wondering where the power went. But because such a high volume of swings against off-speed exists, it looks like an easy explanation. The good news is that it's not as if pitchers are suddenly throwing a bunch of off-speed at Jackson Merrill in comparison to last year. He's seeing less of it this year, at just 14.2 percent. It's the lowest frequency of any of the pitch types. Merrill's just subjecting himself to it at a higher rate. Which, despite the outcomes, does read as a positive. There is nothing in the mechanics to suggest that a path or attack angle has changed, and the only noticeable change in the zone is a slight drop in his swing frequency. However, because Merrill is able to derive much of his power from that area anyway, there is no conversation worth having about the zone itself. For Jackson Merrill, it very much does seem to be rooted in the approach. While it isn't hurting his overall game, it is sapping him of some of his power potential. It's important to consider that the two separate injuries could have stalled his progression in matters of the approach. Now clear of the second one, perhaps he now has the runway to settle in, at which point, the Padres would get the power boost they so sorely need. View full article

After a scorching start to the season, the San Diego Padres have won just nine games in June. They've won only 14 since May 16th, leaving them with a 14-20 record since the point in which some of their offensive woes really started to manifest. That particular mark in the calendar is significant, as it was a stretch where they plated just three runs in five games and started the slide in which they are still currently mired. Whether we're attributing it to injury, lack of depth, or poor timing on the part of pitching struggles, it has undoubtedly been the team's worst stretch of any length this season. However, we can also look closer to the center in identifying just what has made it such a struggle since May 16th. Because it's just a broad swoon for the lineup but a situational one. Whether you're considering "situational" to mean runners on, runners in scoring position, or hitting with two outs, the Padres were succeeding in the early going. The following is what the production looked like and where they ranked as a team in each facet as of May 15th: Runners On: .271 AVG (4th), .340 OBP (7th), 17.5 K% (2nd), 9.4 BB% (14th), .124 ISO (19th), .313 BABIP (5th) RISP: .282 AVG (4th), .362 OBP (3rd), 18.5 K% (4th), 11.7 BB% (7th), .103 ISO (27th), .332 BABIP (3rd) With Two Outs: .294 AVG (1st), .369 OBP (1st), 15.7 K% (1st), 9.6 BB% (9th), .184 ISO (4th), .325 BABIP (3rd) That's obviously a lot to unpack. The team was quite good at generating production with runners on, whether they were in a scoring position or not. They were consistently getting the ball in play and working their way on base. Neither BABIP figure is outlandish, so it's hard to say that they were relying entirely on luck. While they weren't producing a real impact at the plate, there was a visible approach that allowed them to score runs when given the opportunity. The two-out element really stands out, especially considering how much better the Padres were than everyone else. Their average was 25 points higher than the second-place Athletics, and their strikeout rate was five percent better than second-place Kansas City. You could make the argument that regression was due there, in particular, given how far ahead they were of their counterparts on either leaderboard. What was really impressive was that it wasn't a matter of one or two guys carrying any figure, either. Jackson Merrill started the year hitting over .400 with runners on. Each of Manny Machado, Jose Iglesias, and Luis Arráez carried averages over .300 while Gavin Sheets & Fernando Tatis Jr. were over .280. The lowest wRC+ with a runner on base from that group was Iglesias' 110. It got even better when you put said runners in scoring position. Merrill's average still paced the group (.421), but Iglesias joined him in the hitting-over-.400 department (.409). Machado was at .395 while Tatis' .296 average with runners in scoring position was the "worst" of that group. The top performers with two outs included Machado (.429 average), Tatis Jr (.362), and Sheets (.341). None of the three struck out more than 16 percent of the time in such situations, with Tatis (.362 ISO) and Machado (.224) doing some of their best work on the power side with two outs on the board. Obviously, things can become a little more outlandish when examining individual performance from a situational standpoint. You're looking at a 40-ish plate appearance sample prone to things like batting averages over .400. Each guy has different nuances and approach trends, but the bottom line is that the Padres were absolutely thriving when you dropped them in run-scoring situations or put them against the wall with only an out to spare. Of course, that was before the calendar read May 16th. Here's where the Padres stand in each regard (runners on, runners in scoring position, and two-out situations) in the weeks since that point: Runners On: .236 AVG (23rd), .306 OBP (26th), 17.8 K% (3rd), 9.1 BB% (11th), .109 ISO (27th), .274 BABIP (25th) RISP: .214 AVG (27th), .283 OBP (29th), 20.3 K% (12th), 8.6 BB% (24th), .075 ISO (30th), .260 BABIP (27th) With Two Outs: .206 AVG (27th), .265 OBP (30th), 21.1 K% (11th), 7.4 BB% (24th), .124 ISO (19th), .248 BABIP (30th) That is... a lot of regression. It's not even the Padres' fault in certain respects. The walk numbers indicate a certain decline in the approach that could bear some responsibility, but it's not like they're expanding the zone to the point of racking up strikeout numbers here. It appears to be a lot of brutal luck, most notably with the way the BABIP numbers have plummeted in each situation. That's not even the regression-to-the-mean type of regression. That level of regression feels almost cruel. Unsurprisingly, the individual numbers don't favor many members of the Padres here. Luis Arráez is hitting .322 with runners on since May 16th. Jackson Merrill's at .289, Jake Cronenworth is .275, and then it's quite downhill from there. Moving those runners into scoring position further decreases the numbers, with Gavin Sheets' .258 average sitting as the third-best among qualifying Padres. His .290 average with two outs is the best, speaking to how much worse things have gotten for the collective since that May 16 threshold. A hodgepodge of numbers stands before you, to be sure. And, again, there are any number of things we can point to as bearing responsibility for why the Padres have regressed so much situationally. It's not all of their own doing, but the fact is, the regression is there. It's certainly the type of trend that was always going to manifest, but given that the team is currently sitting at over a month of this, you hope that things start to go the other way directly. View full article

In the interest of full disclosure, the following was written prior to Xander Bogaerts' 4-for-4 performance in Los Angeles on Thursday night. And while it was a treat to see him perform in such a way as he did, it doesn't change the ultimate outlook given everything else we have to go off from 2025. With that in mind, it's difficult to find a superlative that gets to the heart of just how bad the Xander Bogaerts contract has been for the San Diego Padres. So hard-pressed to find a compliment for Manny Machado & Fernando Tatis Jr., the team signed a 30-year-old player without a ton of favorable projectability onto their payroll for 11 years. It was always a deal that seemed destined to fail. The midway point of year three, though, might've exceeded even the Padres' optimistic projection. The struggles of Bogaerts have drawn recent comparisons to Eric Hosmer, whose own disastrous deal remains on the payroll through the end of this year. While it's difficult to make such a dire comparison between the two — Bogaerts, for example, posted 6.6 fWAR in his first two seasons in San Diego while Hosmer sat at -1.0 fWAR — it speaks to the perception that has developed around the San Diego shortstop. You hate to pile on a guy that is acutely aware of the perception that surrounds him, as Bogaerts appears to be. This quote, following Wednesday's latest loss, is fairly telling (from MLB.com): However, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Padres have reached this point with their starting shortstop. The following is Bogaerts' year-over-year wOBA: That thing has been in steady decline since 2021. Most metrics are going to tell you a similar story. His wRC+ has gone 129, 133, 119, 95, and 76 thus far in '25. His isolated slugging has read .198, .149, .154, .117, and .086. His Hard-Hit% goes 43.0, 39.5, 34.3, 33.0, and 37.8 percent. There is a slight variability, but each figure is far more indicative of decline than any other possible explanation. Each metric has essentially combined with the expected metrics (xBA, xSLG, etc.) to give Bogaerts the worst season of his career. And there isn't much to suggest that change is on the horizon. He's been able to increase his bat speed but has lost some consistency in squaring up on pitches. He's not generating more power, which pinpoints his inability to provide value when making contact. Essentially all of Bogaerts' present value to the lineup is wrapped up in walks and baserunning. Which is, of course, a problem when you're talking about another eight years on the books. As the Padres waver in their hope in the 2025 (divisional) standings, is it time to abandon it specifically in relation to Xander Bogaerts? Realistically, there isn't much that can be done. There are a few possible outcomes in the short term, however. The most optimistic read is that the team starts to figure it out at the plate. Jackson Merrill returns, the team starts hitting, and Bogaerts' present skill set becomes a perfectly acceptable secondary component in the lineup. There is a way for Bogaerts to contribute without relying on power. But the impact is going to have to come from somewhere else. Then, you can start to worry about the contract a little bit later and focus on the other needs that are currently glaring on this roster. The second-most optimistic scenario is that the Padres are able to find a trade partner for Bogaerts on the market. You'll likely have to eat a good chunk of the remaining money, but you can at least free up some payroll and examine other potential avenues at the position. Given the lack of depth on the roster, it's a bit of a tougher sell from a present standpoint. But if you're starting to think longer-term, then it makes some degree of sense. The Detroit Tigers have been (loosely, through information aggregators more than any actual source) linked to Bogaerts at this point. At the end of the day, the most likely outcome is the most dour one. The Padres are stuck with Xander Bogaerts on their roster until they're willing to eat the entirety of what remains on his contract. You'd obviously prefer a different direction. Either a world wherein Bogaerts is able to recover some semblance of value to complement his relatively solid defense, or the team is able to find a taker for some of the remaining money. But without an indicator in the underlying metrics that Bogaerts is being pinned down with any sort of bad luck or a change in money-saving attitude from a Major League Baseball team, you're likely looking at Door #3. Of course, there's a chance that Thursday night was, in fact, the start of something, and we forget all about this conversation by August. View full article

Thursday night's game between the San Diego Padres & Los Angeles Dodgers was a chance for the former to salvage a game out of a tough four-game series. Whether it was a Dylan Cease meltdown or a Will Smith walkoff home run after a ninth-inning comeback, the first trio of games was unkind to the Padres. Ahead of the ninth inning on Thursday, however, they held a 5-0 lead with each of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Smith pulled. Then, the ninth inning happened. Already a testy dynamic in Los Angeles, considering the recent history — and serving as the seventh game in 11 days — between the teams, it was an environment wrought by a raucous crowd intent on making each of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado specifically aware of how they felt about them. The Dodgers had sent reliever Jack Little out for his major league debut in the inning prior. Little's command was off from the jump. He walked only one but was having trouble locating his fastball in particular. So, as he hit Fernando Tatis Jr. on a pitch up-and-in, it's hard to imagine any intent. But what was supposed to be a rather smooth path to a sorely needed win for the Padres suddenly became treacherous: Manager Mike Shildt was more or less yelling into the void before Dave Roberts caught his attention. Then, of course, Shildt began directing his ire toward his managerial counterpart. From there, it's hard to argue against the idea that it was Roberts escalating the situation by charging out and initiating (notably soft) contact with Shildt. Regardless of the particulars, both were sent to the clubhouse early, while the fans remaining in attendance actively cheering the downing of San Diego's star right fielder. Things were eventually calmed down before the bottom of the frame. There, Sean Reynolds had zero semblance of command and walked the first two hitters. Rather than wait for an official save situation, bench coach Brian Esposito sent Robert Suárez to the bump to close it out. Struggling with command in his own right, Suárez proceeded to hit Shohei Ohtani on a 3-0 count. He and Esposito were subsequently ejected as well. It's occasionally difficult to navigate intent in these situations, but: The Padres argued the ejection, likely pointing to earlier in the series when warnings had been issued but ejections did not take place after another hit batter. Of course, in this instance the warnings were much more recent. And when you're talking about a marquee talent like Ohtani taking the HPB in the box score after Tatis in the top half, then it becomes less arguable. Ultimately, Yuki Matsui came to the mound, struggled with command and was eventually able to close it out with a strikeout of winning run Dalton Rushing. The Padres got their win. But almost nothing about it was enjoyable as a result of that ninth inning. On multiple levels. Among the most pressing matters is the potential to lose Fernando Tatis Jr. for an extended period of time. Initial imaging came back negative, but Shildt stated that it was in a spot with a lot of bones that complicated that imaging. As such, he's scheduled for more on Friday. As of this writing, we don't know what the potential injury or timeline can look like. A hit by pitch off a wrist is among the most alarming sights that we can witness as observers. One hopes that it's the absolute minimum given his injury history and how integral he is to the Padres turning around this early-summer swoon. Then, of course, is the future impact of the theatrics. If you're the Padres, you don't necessarily want the perception to work against you when you're already trying to beat a team like the Dodgers on the scoreboard. I don't think that the takeaways will work against them in this instance, even with Shildt's outburst. Nonetheless, with such an intense situation unfolding, it creates a little bit of anxiety for the next time these two teams match up. Whether that's the Padres maintaining a long memory and starting something that would shift that perception, or if it's any number of high-velocity, low-command Dodger arms doing the same. Either way, that the tension boiled over in the way that it did doesn't always create opportunities for moments of high character. You hope that brains prevail the next time. A word on Mike Shildt, though. My concern when he was hired is that he was something of a dud atop the coaching staff. As a strategist, he's fine. But he always came across as kind of a wet blanket that didn't have the chops to create a vibe that a roster like this needs. Those concerns had already been largely quelled throughout the season, as I think there's something to be a said for a manager who keeps it lowkey and lets his players do the talking. But to rise up in defense of your player in the way that he did for Tatis on Thursday does say a lot about the type of skipper the Padres have on their bench. I don't always jive with an old school mentality, but you want a guy who's going to go to bat for your players in the way that he did. Ultimately, though, it's hard to find any level of joy in a victory like that. The situation stinks. It makes you feel gross. You don't want players injured via HPB and you don't want any reason for perception to work against you when you're the underdog against a behemoth. And you don't want the carryover that can result in even more nonsense moving forward that isn't healthy, on-field competition. What you hope comes out of this is a healthy Fernando Tatis Jr.and an angry Padres team able to deploy their temperament in a productive fashion. Maybe it's a springboard. Or maybe it's a win on the stat sheet, but something that becomes more difficult to overcome. Either way, I think we're about to learn a lot more about this Padres team than we already thought we knew. View full article

The San Diego Padres are in peril. Despite some mild recovery from a late-May offensive swoon, they're struggling to lay down wins with any level of consistency. While there are certainly a number of different viable explanations, the absence of production coming out of left field is one of the more obvious. Only three teams have gotten less production out of their left field spot than the Padres thus far. One is Atlanta. The other two are the Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates. Not necessarily teams you'd like to be in league with from an offensive standpoint in the year 2025. That comes despite running eight different players out at the position to date. The original platoon plan was for Jason Heyward to face right-handed pitchers and Brandon Lockridge to face lefties. Heyward remains on the injured list, while Lockridge has been used more in center than originally expected in coverage of the now twice-injured Jackson Merrill. Jose Iglesias got a game, but is (obviously) a utility infielder. Tyler Wade has provided coverage across 11 games, but his services have also been needed in center and on the infield dirt. Beyond that, Connor Joe got a single game. Oscar González got 14. Neither is still with the organization. Then you get to the Gavin Sheets of it all. He's been the steadiest offensive performer to appear there, but we know what the defense looks like. Considering the risks associated, he's probably better served to be a rotational piece between a corner, first base, and the designated hitter spot rather than spending all of his time on the grass. Even with Sheets' strong performance, the position has provided the team with a .215 average, a .268 on-base percentage, and a .107 isolated power. The collective wRC+ sits at 68. Again, that's with Sheets turning in .300, .368, .275, and 168 in each of those aspects, respectively. Imagine the fall without him as part of the equation. The player notable absent from the above, though, is Tirso Ornelas. The team's 11th-ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline, Ornelas, has received four games and 12 plate appearances to date at the top level. He's hit just .091 and has a -21 wRC+, but you're talking about the most minuscule of samples. Is it time for the Padres to expand it? From MLB Pipeline: The power output described refers to a jump in ISO between 2023 & 2024, wherein Ornelas went from a .119 figure to a .167. There are obviously some warts in his game, indicated by the fact that the power has waned again in '25 (.115 ISO), but there's an argument to be made in favor of a full-time run for Ornelas in left field. For one, Ornelas' on-base presence could be a massive boost for the Padres. He's walking at a clip near 12 percent in El Paso, which would easily lead the team's regulars. As such, he's been on base at a .386 rate. That would also lead the group. While the writeup above does note his occasional expansion of the zone, he's able to provide consistent contact and avoid whiffs. Despite frequent groundball contact, you're talking about consistent, quality contact. Even with a groundball rate lingering around 43 percent, he's still managing a BABIP over .360. Sure, you'd like to see that power form from '24 (or any kind of elevation given the ability to drive the baseball), but the Padres are 17th in OBP as a collective (.314) and 19th in walk rate (8.4 percent). The approach alone would provide a certain degree of benefit for a team that has been a total zero in left field. The other factors — which are at minimum occasionally present — become a bonus. And that's really the most important aspect of such a discussion. You've gotten nothing from a position outside of a guy who shouldn't be out there with regularity. The offensive production beyond Sheets has been absent. Thus far in June, Ornelas is reaching base at a .378 rate, with six walks against six strikeouts. Previous call-ups haven't been enough to get a real sense of what he can offer at the big league level. Given the position in which the San Diego Padres find themselves, it's probably time to find out. View full article