Randy Holt

The San Diego Padres are in peril. Despite some mild recovery from a late-May offensive swoon, they're struggling to lay down wins with any level of consistency. While there are certainly a number of different viable explanations, the absence of production coming out of left field is one of the more obvious. Only three teams have gotten less production out of their left field spot than the Padres thus far. One is Atlanta. The other two are the Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates. Not necessarily teams you'd like to be in league with from an offensive standpoint in the year 2025. That comes despite running eight different players out at the position to date. The original platoon plan was for Jason Heyward to face right-handed pitchers and Brandon Lockridge to face lefties. Heyward remains on the injured list, while Lockridge has been used more in center than originally expected in coverage of the now twice-injured Jackson Merrill. Jose Iglesias got a game, but is (obviously) a utility infielder. Tyler Wade has provided coverage across 11 games, but his services have also been needed in center and on the infield dirt. Beyond that, Connor Joe got a single game. Oscar González got 14. Neither is still with the organization. Then you get to the Gavin Sheets of it all. He's been the steadiest offensive performer to appear there, but we know what the defense looks like. Considering the risks associated, he's probably better served to be a rotational piece between a corner, first base, and the designated hitter spot rather than spending all of his time on the grass. Even with Sheets' strong performance, the position has provided the team with a .215 average, a .268 on-base percentage, and a .107 isolated power. The collective wRC+ sits at 68. Again, that's with Sheets turning in .300, .368, .275, and 168 in each of those aspects, respectively. Imagine the fall without him as part of the equation. The player notable absent from the above, though, is Tirso Ornelas. The team's 11th-ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline, Ornelas, has received four games and 12 plate appearances to date at the top level. He's hit just .091 and has a -21 wRC+, but you're talking about the most minuscule of samples. Is it time for the Padres to expand it? From MLB Pipeline: The power output described refers to a jump in ISO between 2023 & 2024, wherein Ornelas went from a .119 figure to a .167. There are obviously some warts in his game, indicated by the fact that the power has waned again in '25 (.115 ISO), but there's an argument to be made in favor of a full-time run for Ornelas in left field. For one, Ornelas' on-base presence could be a massive boost for the Padres. He's walking at a clip near 12 percent in El Paso, which would easily lead the team's regulars. As such, he's been on base at a .386 rate. That would also lead the group. While the writeup above does note his occasional expansion of the zone, he's able to provide consistent contact and avoid whiffs. Despite frequent groundball contact, you're talking about consistent, quality contact. Even with a groundball rate lingering around 43 percent, he's still managing a BABIP over .360. Sure, you'd like to see that power form from '24 (or any kind of elevation given the ability to drive the baseball), but the Padres are 17th in OBP as a collective (.314) and 19th in walk rate (8.4 percent). The approach alone would provide a certain degree of benefit for a team that has been a total zero in left field. The other factors — which are at minimum occasionally present — become a bonus. And that's really the most important aspect of such a discussion. You've gotten nothing from a position outside of a guy who shouldn't be out there with regularity. The offensive production beyond Sheets has been absent. Thus far in June, Ornelas is reaching base at a .378 rate, with six walks against six strikeouts. Previous call-ups haven't been enough to get a real sense of what he can offer at the big league level. Given the position in which the San Diego Padres find themselves, it's probably time to find out. View full article

Ahead of the 2025 season, the consensus was that the National League West is the best division in baseball. That has largely proven to be true. The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to win, despite having more than a dozen pitchers on the injured list at any given moment. The San Francisco Giants recently heated up to pull even with said Dodgers atop the division before falling back over the weekend. Even the Arizona Diamondbacks remain within striking distance despite myriad bullpen woes & pitcher injuries. But it's that middle squad that, at present, delivers a rather significant problem for the San Diego Padres. The Padres have been in the mix for the NL West lead since the jump. Depending on who you ask, that may or may not be a surprise, mostly due to their overall lack of depth. Despite featuring one of the worst offenses in baseball over the last month, they still remain only three games back of the division-leading Dodgers. The Giants, however, remain sandwiched between the two of them. Given the trade they pulled off on Sunday, they may entrench themselves there for the foreseeable future. San Francisco acquired Boston Red Sox star Rafael Devers for a package that includes a struggling Jordan Hicks, a currently fringe-y Kyle Harrison, and two prospects. In other words, such a deal only adds to their 2025 roster. Which is potentially very problematic for the Padres specifically. The Giants' offense has not been entirely dissimilar from the Padres' this year. Each club has been fairly middle-of-the-road in terms of run production, and since the May 16th threshold where San Diego's offense fell off, the Giants are in front of them by only one run. But the Devers trade illustrates the potential for a sharp break between the two. For his part, Devers is in the middle of another strong year despite an almost-unbelievable slow start. He's reaching base at a clip just over .400 and has a wRC+ of 148 on the year, both of which would represent career highs. Which brings me, dear reader, to the point of this: the San Diego Padres are in trouble. Winning the division was always going to be a stretch. The Dodgers are the Dodgers, after all. And despite their offensive struggles for the past month, the Giants have scored the league's seventh-most runs over the past two weeks. They already represented a more balanced — and slightly deeper — club in challenging the Dodgers for the top spot in the NL West as much as any one team can. Meanwhile, the Padres continue to struggle to score runs. Even on two of the four occasions in which they scored seven runs in the past week, their pitching faltered in the way to losses. The margin for error is small given how top heavy the roster is. It's an unsustainable way to win games over the long-term. The Devers addition threatens to leave the Padres behind entirely in matters of the division. Which could mean that it's time for the Padres to instead shift their attention toward a wild card. It also amplifies the need for A.J. Preller to make additions to the current roster. The issue there is, of course, the depleted farm system from such moves over the last handful of years. So the Padres are now in a position where their need is even greater but the resources aren't quite where they need to be. To say nothing of the report that the team was apparently interested in Devers as well (though we don't know to what extent their actual interest existed nor said lack of resources hurt them in any hypothetical talks). Ultimately, it's another deflating moment in a stretch of deflating moments over the past month. The Padres were already in a certain degree of danger given how hard they've had to work to scratch wins for roughly the last month combined with the nature of having the Dodgers in their division. Now, the urgency picks up. But — and not be too dramatic here — the magnitude of the deal their other division rival just made could mean it's already too late. Despite the narrow gap at present, Wild Card City may be the team's best hope for a postseason destination. View full article

A couple of weeks ago, I speculated that pitchers were adjusting to Fernando Tatis Jr. by incorporating more off-speed pitches. There wasn't a drastic change in his overall zone approach, but that pitch type was clearly something he was struggling with. That, in itself, was one possible explanation for the struggles we're about to explore from a different angle. Since the midway point of May, the San Diego Padres have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They rank 27th in the league in runs scored (83), 29th in the league in on-base percentage (.284), and dead last in their power output (.115 isolated power). Even an 11-run outburst against the Los Angeles Dodgers earlier this week and an absolutely torrid stretch from Manny Machado haven't mattered, considering the bottoming out of essentially the entire lineup. Central to those woes since May 15th is Fernando Tatis Jr. Despite sitting on pace to eclipse last year's Wins Above Replacement figure — he's at 2.7 after a 3.2 mark in 2024 — it's the output from March & April that's doing a lot of the heavy lifting as far as his overall numbers go. That iteration of Tatis atop the lineup was a marvel. He very much looked like he regained superstar status, given a .345/.409/.602 line that accompanied a .257 ISO and a 184 wRC+. That was not only leading the Padres' strong lineup to start the year, but also planted him firmly in the middle of early National League Most Valuable Player discussion. The discussion since has been... not that. The point in time to which we can point where Tatis' struggles began was following a hit-by-pitch in Pittsburgh back at the beginning of May. He returned to the lineup on May 3rd without requiring any kind of IL stint. However, the numbers since that point are, objectively, quite bad. In the time since that HBP on his forearm, Tatis Jr has been the team's worst hitter by wRC+ (76). He's hitting just .188, reaching base at a mere .277 clip, and ISOing at a rate of just .145. The first two numbers are also the team's worst in that stretch, with his isolated power checking in behind only Machado (.232) and Gavin Sheets (.221). His strikeout rate remains manageable (21.3 percent) and his walk rate is completely acceptable, as a 10.3 percent rate trails only Jake Cronenworth (14.3) & Xander Bogaerts (10.7) for the team lead. Whether the HBP is central to the story here is impossible for us to ascertain. We're not in the clubhouse or the training room. But it does represent a fixed point in time between the two versions of Tatis Jr that we've seen thus far in 2025. The off-speed component we've explored does offer one potential explanation. But with new bat tracking data available from Statcast, is there something we missed? The following is the breakdown of Tatis' swing metrics through May 2nd: And here is where he's sitting in each regard since May 3rd: The bat speed has increased slightly. It's also gotten slightly longer, with a 7.1-foot average in March & April and a 7.3 average since the start of May. Faster and longer, on its own, isn't entirely ideal when you're struggling to make contact, especially against one type of pitch. It gained about two miles per hour against off-speed pitches in May and became slightly longer. This certainly supports the element of struggle against off-speed pitches. What else is here that we might've missed at first blush? The swing path tilt has dropped. Similarly, the attack direction has also changed. But neither has deviated from his initial production to indicate any massive mechanical change. You might note, however, that there has been a substantial change in his footwork. While we can't isolate a visual difference between the two points in time, it's a rather notable change that's more of a reversion to his setup from last season. Tatis has spread his feet a bit more and gotten much more closed since our May 3rd framing. It's still a much more open stance than his 29-degree stance from 2024, but it does represent a fairly notable mechanical change. Is it a change that is, perhaps, messing with his timing on some level? It's possible. In addition to a contact rate that's roughly three percent lower between the two timeframes, he has also seen a three-mile-per-hour drop in average exit velocity (94.1 MPH to 91 MPH) and, notably, a more than 17 percent drop in Hard-Hit% (54.7 to 37.0 percent). It's difficult to pinpoint the exact issue here and the reason behind it. But it wouldn't be entirely unreasonable to say that after that hit-by-pitch, Tatis Jr changed something in the way he swings the bat. We can't speculate on whether it was to compensate for any level of pain, but a clear change in the way he's swinging has manifested in the games since May 3rd. This is on top of the off-speed struggles he was already facing, due to the opposing pitcher's adjustments. So, where exactly do you go from here if you're Fernando Tatis Jr. It's a question he needs to answer in a rather expedient fashion, given his importance to this Padres' offense in figuring it out as we move into the second half of the month. View full article

The San Diego Padres find themselves in their current position largely on the strength of what they're able to do on the mound. While the offense has sputtered at times, it's the arms that have kept the team in the mix in the National League West. Imagine where they could be sitting if not for the apparent struggles of Dylan Cease. Cease, along with his rotation-mate Michael King, garnered attention over the winter as potential trade candidates. With free agency on the horizon — and the constant barrage of budget concerns in which the Padres apparently find themselves — it was mildly surprising to see both suit up in San Diego from the jump this season. And although King has only helped his case for a sizable new contract (despite his current role serving as a member of the Injured List), that hasn't been quite the case for Dylan Cease, at least outwardly. Which represents something a little bit weird. Because the underlying data we have indicates that Cease should be turning in a strong 2025 campaign. Yet, he's sitting with a 4.72 ERA, his highest home run rate since 2021 (1.05 per nine innings), and a strand rate that currently resides as the worst of his career (66.4 percent). Are those numbers even indicative of anything given what we see underneath the hood? Cease's 96.8 MPH average fastball velocity is in the 87th percentile, his whiff rate (33.7 percent) is in the 93rd, and his overall strikeout rate (29.1) is in the 85th. He's maintained his elite status in the "stuff" department (which extends beyond the colloquial meaning, given that his Stuff+ checks in above average on both his fastball and his slider). The slider, specifically, which has become his most-used pitch, ranks 18th in baseball among the 78 qualifying arms that throw one. As we look at all of that, it's fairly clear that results are not indicative of the actual season Cease is giving the Padres. And there are at least a couple of reasons for that, one of which is a direct result of the other. On one hand, there's a longevity issue unfolding for Cease at present. Through his first 13 starts, Cease is averaging roughly 5 2/3 innings per outing (68 2/3 innings total). He's failed to work through the fifth inning in five of those starts and has gone exactly five in another three of them. The modern baseball world obviously does not value pitcher wins to the extent they used to (which remains a largely valid development). But, with Cease only having a single win on the books (1-5 record overall) despite the fact we're well into June, it's certainly indicative of some struggles to work deep into games. But is that even his fault? The above numbers appear to indicate that it isn't, given the high volume of strikeouts and — on a more pitch-to-pitch level — whiffs. Cease's 8.2 percent walk rate is actually the best of his career, so he's working in and around the zone at a level we haven't seen before. He had one start back on April 26th where he walked four hitters and two others where he walked three. Other than that, Cease has issued free passes to two or fewer hitters in 10 of those 13 starts. Which brings us directly to the source: the defense. That longevity issue is likely wrought by a more severe "luck" issue, both in terms of his batted ball fortunes and in what the defense behind him is doing in order to support him. Cease's opposing hitter batting average on balls in play is .333. By that metric alone, only six qualifying starters have worked against worst luck than Cease. And then there's the FIP side of things. Fielding Independent Pitching, for the uninitiated, removes defensive factors in favor of those events over which a pitcher has more direct control (strikeouts, walks, homers, etc.). In Cease's case, his season FIP sits at just 3.20. Additionally, in some of his worst individual starts, the FIP is screaming at us about the defense's role in all of this. On April 8th, Cease gave up nine earned runs across four innings but had a FIP of 3.32. In his two most recent starts (May 31st and June 5th), he was unable to work past the fifth inning while allowing three runs to cross in each. But his FIP in those starts was 3.93 and 2.07, respectively. There's a defensive component here that's impossible to ignore. It's not that they're recording errors behind Cease. They're simply failing to make the necessary plays in support of their starting pitcher... which probably shouldn't ring as any kind of a surprise. The San Diego Padres are just 17th in the league in Fielding Run Value (0), with the range aspect of the equation specifically coming in at -2. They're a below-average team in matters of getting to the baseball in order to record outs. If you're wondering why Dylan Cease is operating against a .333 BABIP, there's a good chunk of it. Not that Cease has been perfect, mind you. He's giving up a bit more barrel contact than he did last year as an example. But, the expected stats tell us plenty. A 3.67 xERA. A .242 xBA against. He should be better. But it's not a situation where his usage has changed or he's missing spots. This is a matter of some bad luck compounding with defensive inefficiency to pin down the production that we should be seeing from a typically effective starting pitcher. The good news is that these things have a tendency to even themselves out. View full article

There really isn't any way around the fact that Xander Bogaerts has not been the player the San Diego Padres thought they were signing prior to the 2023 season. It's purely objective at this point. Our own Aidan Kurt recently examined how it was an ill-conceived signing from the start, largely due to the fact that Petco Park does not play the same way for right-handed hitters as his former stomping grounds in Boston. However, that doesn't mean Bogaerts has been a complete loss during his time as a member of the Padres, especially in 2025. In each of his two full seasons and the roughly two-and-a-half months of 2025, Bogaerts has seen the power element of his game dissolve almost entirely. His isolated power figure as of this writing checks in at a mere .091. Among qualifying hitters, that ranks 153rd of 166. For context, even Luis Arráez is all the way up at 121st. With that, though, he's managed to find a different component with which to contribute to the team's offensive output: baserunning. His steady approach has been worthwhile (including a 77th percentile walk rate, which will be revisited shortly), but he's started to make his mark on the bases. Bogaerts already has 11 steals on the season, which puts him 17th within that same group. It's also an early total that has him on pace to obliterate his previous career high, which was already set during his time with the Padres. His career high in swipes with the Red Sox was 15, set back in 2017. In his first year in San Diego, he stole 19 before injuries held his game (and steal) total to 13. This year's 11 through 61 games, however, put him on pace for 29. It's not simply a matter of the raw number of steals working in his favor, though. The following is how Statcast depicts the underlying value of Bogaerts' baserunning acumen: Among the components that primarily stand out here are the bases gained vs average (four) and the steal attempt rate (2.7 percent). Both of those are currently among the higher outputs that Bogaerts has posted since they were first tracked in 2016, with a chance for Bogaerts to similarly sprint past each figure in the way that he could on the raw SB total. Not bad for a guy with just the 69th percentile sprint speed. Circling back to the on-base element, Bogaerts' walk rate is at 11.2 percent thus far. If that continues, it would be the highest BB% of his entire career. And while a .324 OBP isn't remotely among the higher-end rates that he's turned in throughout his career, he's refined his approach to help provide value against the waning power output. It's one thing to be able to steal bases. But you've got to be able to reach base to make that mean anything. Bogaerts is managing to do both in the face of alarming decline elsewhere. It's an important thing to be cognizant of within the Xander Bogaerts narrative. Sure, he's not the player he was in Boston. He was never really going to be, and the 11-year deal was a foolhardy endeavor from the jump. But there's something to be said about a player who can refine or develop a new avenue toward offensive value when a different facet starts to decline. Bogaerts, finding his way on base with a keen eye and creating that additional value with his baserunning, is illustrating exactly that. View full article

There are 308 players in Major League Baseball with at least 100 plate appearances thus far in 2025. By OPS, Jake Cronenworth is the 54th-best player out of that group. And as much as it'd be nice to believe that the San Diego Padres' second baseman has regained form and reached an upper tier of the league's offensive talent, there's something deceptive happening within the numbers. Cronenworth's OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) currently sits at .816. For context, an OPS figure of over .800 is considered very good. Above average, even. It's a number, though, that is more propped up by the on-base side of things than the slugging. As of this writing, the former number sits at .384, while his slugging checks in at a mere .432. As far as the on-base figure goes, Cronenworth's OBP ranks 21st in the league among that same large group of players. That's primarily courtesy of his walk rate, which at 15.8 percent, sits eighth. It's important to note that both of those components of his game are admirable. You need those drivers of on-base presence to create opportunities for your top sluggers to drive in runs. The nature of these specific numbers, however, speaks to the one-dimensional nature of Cronenworth as a hitter in 2025. The issue is reflected in his percentile distribution thus far: The approach numbers are very real. Cronenworth has been able to work plate appearances effectively, both avoiding pitches outside the strike zone and limiting swings and misses. In turn, he has an absolutely elite walk rate. The larger concern lies in the blue areas of the top half. By measures of expectation, Cronenworth features an xBA of just .224 and an xSLG of only .335. Those expected outcomes are roughly 50 points and 70 points lower than what he has actually turned in to this point, respectively. Therein, we begin to find cause for concern regarding Jake Cronenworth's overall production, both in OPS and the overall output at large. While Cronenworth has been able to work each plate appearance to his advantage, he's been unable to parlay that into much success in terms of contact. His barrel rate, at 4.7 percent, is the second-lowest mark of his career. And while his 41.9 Hard-Hit% is okay, he's putting the ball on the ground almost 45 percent of the time. That would be his highest GB% since his rookie season in 2020. There is no obvious or immediate fix, either. His bat speed is up, which should play to his benefit considering the approach. His attack angle has dipped slightly against fastballs and breaking pitches, but not seemingly enough to generate as much groundball contact as he is at present. Ultimately, though, the concern is whether the walk rate can sustainably prop up the rest of his performance. Because when he's making contact, he's outperforming his peripherals. We know that in baseball, that's not always going to be reliable. Even a modest .296 BABIP is at risk of allowing one to maintain a steady on-base presence when the contact quality isn't there. Again, it stands to reason that Jake Cronenworth can remain a valuable part of this lineup on the merit of his approach alone. However, the contact quality will have to improve if he's to sustain such value. View full article

Regardless of the outcome on a given night, the specter of an absence of depth continues to loom over the San Diego Padres. It's a narrative we're more accustomed to in matters of position players, but it's begun to manifest with more frequency on the bump. Still without Yu Darvish and now without Michael King, the Padres have been forced to get a little bit creative with their starting pitching. It's that creativity that forced Ryan Bergert to the mound in San Francisco on Tuesday night. Already rolling with a rotation that has featured six (mostly effective) starts from Stephen Kolek, another recent dud from Kyle Hart, and a Sean Reynolds starting cameo, Bergert was named the starter for Tuesday ahead of time by Mike Shildt. He didn't disappoint. Of course, it wasn't the first we'd seen of Bergert this year. He'd made four clean appearances in relief for the team, totaling four innings with a pair of strikeouts, one hit, and one walk. Solid, unspectacular stuff. There's a funny thing about "solid, unspectacular" in baseball: it generally gets the job done. And while Bergert left without a result sitting in his favor, that solid, unspectacular outing put his team in a position to win. Bergert threw five innings, struck out two, walked two, and allowed six hits. One of those hits was a 107 MPH shot off the bat of Heliot Ramos that landed over the center field wall (and was a homer in 28 out of 30 ballparks). That it came with a man on didn't help, but it landed as the only blemish on an otherwise strong starting debut for Bergert. What's more notable than the outcome, though, is the usage we saw. In his four relief appearances, Bergert was fastball-heavy, throwing his four-seam fastball 68.6 percent of the time. The slider served as his secondary offering (21.6 percent), with a sinker and changeup combining for five pitches total across those four innings. Tuesday showed us something entirely different: Bergert threw his four-seam 41 percent of the time. No surprise there. But the cutter chimed in a third of the time (accounting for 27 of his raw pitch count), with the slider checking in at only 14 percent (12 thrown in total). The sinker was thrown 10 percent of the time, and a changeup wasn't documented at all. So did Bergert suddenly bring a cutter to the table while not throwing a single one in any of his relief appearances? Not quite. This excerpt from his MLB Pipeline scouting report stands out: Baseball Savant had the cutter coming in at 2,625 RPM of spin and the slider at 2,677, on average. The cutter garnered 31 inches of vertical break while the slider offered 37. Given that information, the "slider" indicated by Savant is likely the first pitch noted in the excerpt, and the cutter is the second. It's also worth noting that four of Bergert's eight total whiffs on the evening came via the pitch classified as a cutter. Ultimately, the previous usage probably wasn't distinguishing the two pitches in a smaller sample. However, out of a starting roll, it gave a larger sample with which to work and allowed for differentiation to take place. That changeup we saw in relief could be viable down the line, though, especially as he was forced to go with a four-seam majority against left-handed hitters. Regardless of the usage clarification, Bergert's start against a middle-of-the-pack Giants squad was an important step. That's a contending team in the same division against which you need to stack wins. Bergert left down 2-0, but kept the team within striking distance so that they could work their two-out magic in the ninth inning. Until they nail down more certainty in the rotation, this type of solid, unspectacular work is exactly what the Padres need when you consider what's waiting in the bullpen. View full article

On Tuesday night in San Francisco, the San Diego Padres looked destined for yet another shutout loss. An offense that has wavered in producing runs consistently in recent weeks was down 2-0 in the Bay with two outs on the board. Luckily for them, Manny Machado was up. And Manny Machado knew the moment. With the bases loaded, Machado took a Camilo Doval breaking pitch into left field for a game-tying single. The Padres would go on to win in the 10th, courtesy of a Jake Cronenworth single. But it was Machado and his four hits that were the star, none bigger than the last one that came against the San Francisco Giants closer: Perhaps the most impressive element isn't the clutch nature of it, but where Machado was able to make the contact to drive the ball into the outfield. Not only was it at his shins, but the breaking pitch checks in as Doval's best overall pitch (121 Stuff+). Here's the visual: Those are contact skills of an elite nature, both in adjusting to the pitch itself and creating something of quality from it. Not that any of this should be a surprise, given what Machado has given the Padres since the start of May. Machado's start to the season was varying shades of fine. He had a 114 wRC+ with a .279 average and .336 on-base percentage. The power wasn't completely there (.144 ISO), but he was making plenty of quality contact. Nothing about it was bad, of course. But when you're measuring against the start of Fernando Tatis Jr or Jackson Merrill — to say nothing of Machado's own career at large — it didn't appear as impactful as we're accustomed to seeing from Machado. Then, the calendar flipped over to May. Since May 1, Machado's 178 wRC+ ranks 11th out of 176 qualifying hitters. His .352 average ranks sixth in that group, while his .423 OBP sits 12th. Perhaps most importantly, given some of the Padres' offensive struggles, is that the power has come along with it. His ISO since May 1st is at .204, with five of his seven home runs coming outside of the season's first month. What's encouraging is that there isn't a big difference in underlying trends for Machado since May 1 against what those trends looked like in March & April. He's actually made a little less contact, but he's also been slightly more choose-y in where he's deploying his swings (read: the swing rate is down). Whether this is intentional is something we'll likely need a larger sample with which to work, but the result is undeniable given that it's leading to more elevation. Machado was putting the ball on the ground at a 43.5 percent clip in March & April. Despite quality contact, that's not what you want when you're not the fleetest of foot at this stage of your career. Since the start of May, though, that rate has dropped to 36.0 percent, which is the lowest of the Padres' group of qualifying hitters. His fly ball rate has, in turn, risen to slightly over 40 percent. When you combine that with continued contact quality (12.4 Barrel%), you're going to get a more impactful version of Manny Machado. That's the version the Padres need. Machado's bat speed has declined in each of the last three years, but his barrel rate is going up. You can deal with a little bit whiff in his game if you're getting the blend of premium contact off the barrel and some elevation. And that's why you have Manny Machado on your roster — he's the player to lead through the tough stretches with his own offensive performance. Injuries slowed this team from the jump. Now, it's roster-wide underperformance. But, after a relatively quiet start to the year, Machado is leading them through both. View full article

The San Diego Padres need a left fielder. It's one of the loudest needs of any contending team as the summer creeps ever closer and trade possibilities start to materialize at a higher volume. With Gavin Sheets' crash into the left field wall on Sunday, it's one rapidly becoming more amplified. So, it's no surprise that we've already heard their name in connection with one prominent name: Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran. On Monday morning, The Athletic's Dennis Lin reported that the Padres were interested in acquiring Duran. It's a logical connection to make both ways. The Red Sox have a crowded lineup — including all-world defender Ceddanne Rafaela and an emerging Wilyer Abreu — that still needs to make room for top prospect Roman Anthony, who's banging on the door of the big leagues. That could, in turn, make Duran expendable given the variance in outcomes he's demonstrated over the past handful of seasons. Given the need, though, it makes even more sense on the Padres' end of things. Their top two prospects reside on the infield (Leo De Vries) and behind the plate (Ethan Salas), so they're without a clear & viable longer-term option in left. Duran is under team control through 2028. With the contract angle and Duran's past performance, however, it's also one that would present certain challenges for such a move from AJ Preller. That's primarily due to the fact that the organization's farm system has been visibly depleted with trades made over the last two years. While there are a number of intriguing names at the lower levels of the minor leagues — to say nothing of the fact that we should never underestimate Preller's willingness to push a deal through — it remains to be seen whether the team would have the resources to acquire a player such as Duran, especially when Lin's report also identifies starting pitching as a desired add prior to the trade deadline. Regardless of the context, though, there isn't any doubt that Jarren Duran is exactly the type of player that could suit the San Diego lineup. His 2024 season was his best, as he finished toward the top of the fWAR leaderboard (6.7) courtesy of a .285 average, a .342 on-base percentage, and a career-best .207 isolated power. His wRC+ checked in at 129 while he hit 21 homers and accrued 34 stolen bases. His Fielding Run Value of 11 was the fourth-best mark among qualifying outfielders, as well. That's not to say that Duran has been the same player in '25. He hasn't been as much of a fixture on the basepaths this season, and his power has fallen off, but the tools he does provide are exactly what the Padres could be searching for in a potential acquisition. Ideally, you'd like that power to remain intact. But the speed (13 steals) and left field defense (2 FRV for his career) would be assets. The former would help to lengthen the lineup, as well. Sure, the team has Luis Arráez as an effective-enough table setter next to Fernando Tatis Jr. (regardless of their order). But, Arráez doesn't possess the speed or baserunning acumen of Duran. Pairing the two atop the lineup could push the likes of Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill down in order to create more run scoring opportunities. Factor in the defensive side, and you've got a nice player with which to work for the next few seasons. The financial cost of Duran shouldn't become too burdensome. It's a matter of the prospect acquisition. Preller might not be fighting for his job in the way that was perceived a year ago, but no one wants to leave the prospect cupboard too bare when the roster starts to age. That would likely be the primary hold up in any prospective trade talks. Luckily, the Red Sox have an upper-tier farm with some talent ready to break through in the next year or two. As a result, they might be more inclined to take on greener names in the system in order to build up the depth in the lower runs of their organization. Either way, that we're hearing concrete names speaks to the urgency the Padres possess. Duran's an early fit on the ideal side, but he's probably far from the last name we'll hear as a left field possibility. View full article

The San Diego Padres are in need of a left fielder who contributes to the team's offense. Gavin Sheets had been one of the team's best hitters through the end of May. He can technically play the outfield. It wasn't a difficult puzzle to solve. But, of course, solving said puzzle reveals the massive caveat that is Gavin Sheets in the outfield. It was a caveat Mike Shildt was willing to confront, though, given the circumstances. Including Sunday's series finale vs. Pittsburgh, Sheets had started five of his last seven games on the outfield grass. He'd hit a pair of home runs over that stretch. By the middle of that game, though, we got a little taste as to why Sheets was always going to be a temporary solution. The Padres went down 4-1 early against a lackluster Pirates squad. Part of that deficit was due to Sheets taking a bad angle on a Spencer Horwitz double in the third inning that became a run. In the fourth, however, is when the real damage came. Adam Frazier hit a leadoff home run that just barely cleared the wall, with Sheets colliding with the wall in pursuit. It was a result that probably doesn't occur for an experienced left fielder. Regardless of the particulars, it appears that Sheets is set to miss some time. On the play, Sheets suffered a head contusion, a sore hip, and a jammed wrist & thumb. He's also in concussion protocol. Take your pick as to which could land Sheets on the IL, but the Padres now find themselves going back to the drawing board in attempting to drum up any sort of offensive production from that specific position. Jason Heyward is still on the IL with an oblique injury. Although the team wasn't receiving regular production from the veteran, it's an injury notorious for its ambiguity in terms of timeline. This means that, for however long Sheets & Heyward remain out, the team will likely be forced to press the likes of Brandon Lockridge and Tyler Wade into left field duty. To date, the only team getting less production out of left field is Pittsburgh. The Padres' 51 wRC+ from that position ranks 29th, with a bottom-six strikeout rate (19.7 percent), a bottom-seven walk rate (6.4 percent), and bottom-five power output (.097 ISO). It's unlikely that either Lockridge or Wade stands to change that. Lockridge has wRC+ed 51 through roughly 70 plate appearances. He hasn't provided much in the way of on-base presence (.258 OBP) and even less on the power side (.066 ISO). Wade has managed to compensate for a strikeout rate lingering around 30 by walking 13.8 percent of the time and, subsequently, reaching base at a .345 clip. Unfortunately, the impact he provides is even less than Lockridge (.045 ISO). The best-case scenario is that Mike Shildt can deploy each in such a way that you can attempt to leverage Lockridge against lefties and hope Wade continues his steady on-base presence against right-handed pitching. The latter would, at least, let the top of the order swing back around with him already there. But beyond that, the picture in left field looks to be at its worst. Tirso Ornelas continues to hit well in Triple-A (.384 OBP, 15 extra-base hits), but mustered just one hit across 16 PA last time he was up. Would the team give him more of a run considering the absence of any other upside? Tim Locastro could also serve as an option (.390 OBP, 13 XBH), but would have to be added to the 40-man roster. That's kind of what you're looking at, though. You're exercising patience with limited big-league experience or hoping to continue maximizing the talents of fringe big-league players. Either way, it's a situation that continues to escalate. While the offense has improved since their late May swoon, there are still players who aren't quite back to full strength in production. Without a stable presence in left field, you're unable to combat that to a degree that you would be if you had a regular there. This means that the team's need for a left fielder has just become even greater. The whole league already knew it. And when the whole league knows you need something, you're less likely to make a viable move for fear of an overpay. A solution isn't likely to come soon. But it likely needs to. View full article

Given that the year is 2025, we are collectively aware that Runs Batted In is no longer considered an accurate indicator of a player's ability. But the San Diego Padres spent a good chunk of May finding it difficult to score runs. In one stretch, in particular, they plated only 12 runs total across eight games, which is why we're going to put a little extra emphasis on the idea of the RBI in identifying this month's top hitter for the club. That doesn't mean that our No. 1 was the only guy hitting. Despite playing their role in that stretch above, each of Jake Cronenworth & Jackson Merrill have been worthy contributors since their returns earlier this month from respective Injured List stints. However, given that only five hitters even approached the league average threshold presented by wRC+, the following were not difficult to identify. #3: Luis Arráez May Stats: .283 AVG, .314 OBP, 2.8% K-rate, 4.7% BB-rate, .101 ISO, 97 wRC+ Given the lack of power present in the profile, it's always difficult for a metric like wRC+ to love a player like Luis Arráez. But after struggling to start the year, he's back to his old ways. Only Manny Machado exceeded Arráez's 28 hits during the month. The craziest thing about his game this year, though, is in the entire absence of strikeouts. We know that Arráez is a pure contact hitter who doesn't strike out. However, a 2.8 percent rate for the month is still a remarkable achievement. Even wilder is that it's actually a higher rate than his full-season percentage (2.4 percent). For context, Jacob Wilson's 5.3 percent strikeout rate is the second-lowest in the league. So while he may not offer much else in the way of power or defense, he can be a driver of run production atop the lineup when he's hitting his way on like this. #2: Manny Machado May Stats: .356 AVG, .437 OBP, 15.5% K-rate, 12.6% BB-rate, .200 ISO, 182 wRC+ On the merit of the above numbers, Manny Machado was the team's best overall hitter in May. He's starting to strike out less and walk more while providing steady impact, given an ISO figure roughly 60 points higher than the one he turned in during March & April. Even if there are hitters in the league providing more isolated power than even that, the overall picture is MVP-level production that the team saw from Machado for the month. They just need it to continue. Machado's power, even on a gap level, has waned in recent years and was off to the slow start we saw in '25. He only drove in a dozen runs this month, with 22 of his 30 hits checking in as singles. It feels silly to knock him for the former, but the impact simply must continue moving forward. Regardless, it was exactly the type of month you wanted to see in projecting the Padres' 2025 outcome. #1: Gavin Sheets May Stats: .297 AVG, .319 OBP, 23.1% K-rate, 3.3% BB-rate, .310 ISO, 155 wRC+ Again, we're leaning heavily on the run production element of the month, given some of the valleys to which the offense has sunk. As such, Sheets is kind of the only option when you consider the impact provided over the month. It seemed like any given night featured a two-run shot off the bat of Sheets to at least give the team a shot in the latter innings. Sheets hit eight for the month, providing the same amount of home run power as Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth combined. He knocked in 22 runs, which exceeded second-place Xander Bogaerts by nine. Sheets remains an imperfect player with the lackluster approach at the plate (as depicted in the K/BB split), but there wasn't a hitter who had a more important impact on the team's fortunes in May than a guy who was a non-roster invitee just a few months ago. View full article

Disclaimer: What we're not doing here is casting aspersions on Manny Machado. Having just recently passed the threshold of playing more games with the San Diego Padres than the Baltimore Orioles, he's further cemented himself as a legend of the organization. He remains a key contributor and an upper tier player within the larger scale of Major League Baseball. That said, his defense in 2025 has been, in a word, bad. Before he emerged into a genuinely elite hitter, Machado made his bones as a star caliber player with the glove. He recorded seven Defensive Runs Saved in his first 460-ish inning action back in 2012 before posting 27 over nearly 1,400 the following year. When advanced metrics came into the picture in 2016, he notched a Fielding Run Value of five, which was tied for the fourth-best mark among 18 qualifying third basemen that year. Fielding Run Value is what we will continue to use to evaluate Machado's defense of a more recent vintage, as it takes into account both range and arm in providing a comprehensive defensive metric. As recently as 2023, Machado remained elite. Among qualifying third baseman that year, only Ke'Bryan Hayes posted a higher figure than Machado's 9 FRV. That was primarily on the strength of his 97th percentile range, given that his arm strength came in at just the 51st. Nevertheless, he converted outs at a 76 percent success rate against a 72 percent estimated success rate. A tough act to follow, especially with an offseason surgery looming. Between '23 and '24, Machado had elbow surgery to repair a tendon. When he debuted in 2024, it was as the team's designated hitter. The 870-ish innings he logged was his fewest over a full season (as a full-time third sacker) since 2014. But this is where the regression started. By FRV, Machado was exactly average defensively in 2024. He converted 69 percent of chances into outs on a 69 percent estimation. The concerning element, though, is that his range fell to the 38th percentile, while his arm checked in slightly above what it was the previous season (56th percentile). It's sort of the opposite of what you'd expect. You could understand the arm strength coming down from even his average figure, but the range certainly presents as concerning. Perhaps there was a readjustment period. Or, more alarming, maybe his 32-year-old body is starting to show signs of wear in not getting to balls that he used to. It's not something you want to speculate on, but the 2025 defensive metrics only enhance such concerns. His FRV thus far is -3, almost entirely a result of his actually making the play. His success rate is at 71 percent against a 74 percent estimated success rate. Weirdly, though, his play on balls in a "straight up" scenario is even worse. His 70 percent success rate is five points lower than the expected. It's a trend that has Machado sitting in 23rd in FRV among 29 qualifying players at the position. Worse yet, there's not a lot of breathing room between Machado and the bottom of the list. Max Muncy and Mark Vientos, who occupy the bottom two spots, are at -5 FRV. The exact source of Machado's defensive issues remains the issue. Is this a situation where he can adjust based on positioning? Other than something less quantifiable, like an aging curve, it may be the best explanation we have. In 2023, Machado was playing at an average depth of 117 feet at a 32 degree angle (the third base line is 45 degrees, for reference). The angle itself read as fairly normal against his contemporaries, but the depth was one of the shortest distances among full-time third basemen. In 2024, that depth grew to 120 feet at a 30 degree angle; a little bit deeper, a little bit farther off the bag. Thus far in 2025, Machado's depth is at 125 feet and a 28 degree angle. The distance has grown from the plate, and he continues to gravitate away from the third base line. For context, the top players at the position (by FRV) are on the opposite end of the spectrum, particularly in regard to depth. Ke'Bryan Hayes is at 113 feet, Ernie Clement is at 117, and Nolan Arenado is at 119. Those are the three best third base defenders by FRV. Third base is a position where you want to cut the distance as much as (realistically) possible. You're getting the highest exit velocities of anyone on the field, but you also want to mitigate the chance of weird spin, strange bounce, etc. Which is why you see the shorter distance among the more effective third base defenders. And could also serve as an explanation as to why Machado is having such difficulty in converting "straight up" outs. So why the change for Machado? We don't know. Maybe it's a comfort thing. Maybe it's not at all intentional. But in terms of the quantifiable, it's the only tangible explanation we have for the defensive woes he's experiencing. Whether he can compensate with his new positioning or make an adjustment to get back on track will be a situation worth monitoring moving forward. View full article

At the end of April, we were discussing Fernando Tatis Jr. in the context of a return to superstardom and as a fixture in the National League MVP race. As we prepare to hit the end of May, we've watched Tatis Jr's offensive performance sink with the majority of the rest of the San Diego Padres offense. Tatis' March & April included a slash of .345/.409/.632 to go along with a .257 isolated power, and a strikeout rate of just 15.0 percent. His wRC+ sat at 182. Add in the baserunning prowess (seven steals) and the defense and you had a player looking every bit like his old self again. But May has been far from the same story. He's hitting only .195 and reaching base at a mere .267 clip. The power has dwindled to a .195 ISO while his cumulative performance has resulted in a wRC+ of just 83. What is perhaps most notable is that his walk rate — which sat a shade over 10 percent in March & April — has dwindled to just 7.8 in May. This, while his strikeout rate has shot up to 26.7 percent. The strikeout rate would appear to be the source of what has held Tatis Jr back during his May swoon. If you can't put the ball in play, you can't deploy your 93rd percentile Hard-Hit% (53.6 percent). Except assuming that he's simply striking out more and, thus, not hitting would represent an oversimplification. Such an oversimplification implies that Tatis is swinging more or chasing more. Except he isn't. In fact, Tatis' plate discipline numbers should bely a player experiencing a similar level of success that we saw in the previous month. His 49.5 Swing% and 30.9 Chase% in March & April each went down in May (47.0 Swing%, 29.2 Chase%). Notably, his swing rate inside of the zone fell most among the plate discipline figures. After hacking at pitches in the zone roughly 77 percent of the time at April's end, he's swinging at such pitches 73.8 percent of the time. It's not a drastic change, but it is the second-most significant among the trends in his approach. The most significant is in his zone contact. Tatis Jr has made contact inside the zone just 83.2 percent of the time this month; he was at 89.5 in March & April. It's there we might find some semblance of a reason for his struggles this month. That reasoning exists almost exclusively due to offspeed pitches. Opposing pitchers haven't changed much in how they navigate a Fernando Tatis Jr. plate appearance this year. They're coming into the zone roughly as much while the distribution of pitch types has changed only marginally. What is worth paying attention to, though, is the bringing of offspeed pitches into the strike zone: That's about a 12 percent increase on off-speed pitches inside the zone. Tatis has experienced trouble with that pitch type this year, whiffing at it 46.9 percent of the time. For context, breaking pitches are in second at just 32.0 percent. So it's possible that an adjustment is needed against that pitch type in particular in order to get Tatis back on track. It's also important to note that the off-speed stuff doesn't represent the entirety of a source. There's a luck component, as his BABIP is at just .222 after a .356 start to the year. That will even out and help him to compensate on its own. The good news here is that there isn't anything severe plaguing Fernando Tatis Jr.at the plate. It's not an expansion of the zone or a general context issue. Nor is it a zone swing issue, as he's largely focused on the same areas that he did to start the year. Pitchers have simply adjusted in the way they pitch to Tatis. Now he has to adjust back. View full article