Randy Holt

After watching Michael King carry a no-hitter into the seventh inning of their Game 1 matchup against the Chicago Cubs, the San Diego Padres will send another savvy veteran to the mound in Game 2 in the form of Nick Pivetta. Regardless of how well he performs, though, we shouldn't necessarily expect the process to look quite the same as last night. King always seemed destined to turn in at least six innings of work; in his 15 starts since the beginning of July, he had only failed to complete that workload on three separate occasions (and two of those were five full frames). Pivetta, however, doesn't have that type of volume on which to stand. Pivetta went down in April with a right elbow injury. His rehab was shaky, including an abrupt departure from an outing in early August following additional tightness. While he went on to throw an additional 30 pitches in the bullpen that same night, we didn't see him make a start for the Padres again until September 7. Three starts followed to close out the year. This is how those final four outings looked for him: September 7th: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB September 13th: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 0 BB September 18th: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 BB September 24th: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB All told, Pivetta finished the month with a 1.45 ERA (3.05 FIP) across 18.2 innings, 18 strikeouts (24.3 K%), and a pair of walks (2.7 BB%). As ever with Pivetta, the name of the game is efficiency. While he hasn't provided tremendous volume as he works his way back to full strength, he's been able to turn in just enough of a workload for the Padres' elite bullpen to take over. In doing so, he's left the team in a great situation each time as far as the scoreboard is concerned. When he takes the ball at Petco Park on Wednesday night, we should expect it to look largely the same as we did throughout September. It's obviously difficult to account for what type of production we might see out of the Cubs' offense. While they were the league's best run producers in the regular season, King stifled them entirely in Game 1 largely on the strength of his sweeper. Maybe they rebound against Pivetta and send him to the bench early. If he's able to turn in a continued level of steadiness, though, one expects that their plan will look much the same as it has been since his return. Each time out, Craig Stammen gave Pivetta just about two turns through the order. He faced 17 hitters in each of his first two starts back and 20 in each of his third & fourth. He was immediately followed by a lefty; Kyle Hart threw an inning in the first two, Wandy Peralta came out in the third, and Yuki Matsui followed him in the fourth. It's likely we'll see something similar play out on Wednesday night. If Pivetta can stay the course and work at least four full frames, then you're likely looking at a left-handed arm in relief, especially if the Padres are in a position where Pete Crow-Armstrong or Michael Busch (or even Ian Happ, given his right-handed woes) are due up. King's excellence on Tuesday also left the bullpen quite fresh, with only Matsui & the return of Joe Musgrove featuring after his seven innings. Which means that the bullpen is almost entirely in order ahead of Game 2. If Pivetta can give the Padres anything close to what he did down the stretch of the regular season, San Diego should be in legitimately excellent shape with a chance to advance to the National League Division Series in a sweeping effort. View full article

The San Diego Padres excelled just about everywhere on the Petco Park field on Tuesday night. Their 8-0 win over the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of the National League's Wild Card Round was plenty of what we've become accustomed to in their scorching second half of the season. That, of course, means that the offense came to play. The Padres have featured one of the league's best groups in terms of run production since the end of July, and they wasted no time in putting the screws to Cubs starter Matthew Boyd in Game 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. led the charge: Having spent almost every calendar day since June reestablishing himself as a superstar on the Major League Baseball landscape, Tatis sent the first pitch that anyone in the Padre lineup saw on Tuesday over the fence for the 1-0 lead. Manny Machado would go on to add another before the inning was over, but Tatis wasn't done contributing highlights to the effort. After getting an excellent jump to catch an Ian Happ lineout that carried a .430 expected batting average, he put the game to bed for good in the seventh: Tatis ensured we saw all aspects of his dynamic game in Game 1. The power, the speed, and the glove were each on display. What's especially important, though, is the fact that he wasn't remotely by himself in showing out in the commanding victory. Machado's first-inning home run was followed by a third-inning double that scored Tatis and served as the game's hardest hit ball (108.0 MPH). Xander Bogaerts homered in the fourth inning and added a single on the second-hardest hit ball of the evening (107.3 MPH) in the eighth. Jackson Merrill added a two-RBI single in the fifth that pushed the lead the 6-0 (which, at 107.1 MPH, was the game's third-hardest hit ball). Every single member of the "core" group contributed at least two hits to the effort, with Ty France adding a pair of his own knocks. While it may be unrealistic to expect this kind of outburst every game for however long the Padres play in the postseason, the team's fortunes in the 2026 are going to be driven by exactly this type of effort. They've gotten plenty of supplementary contributions in the second half from the likes of Dustin Harris or Luis Campusano. But it's the core that is going to drive the team's improved offense as far as this whole thing is going to go. Central to all of it, though, is Fernando Tatis Jr. Despite carrying the longest power outage of his career almost into June, he finished the season in the top 10 in fWAR (5.4) among the league's position players. He's done it on the power side (25 home runs), on the bases (38 steals), and in the field (3 Outs Above Average). These playoffs are a forum for him to reestablish his name among the game's very best for a mainstream audience. Seeing him lead the charge was an excellent sign for the immediate future, but it's going to take consistent contributions from a core group that has otherwise been streaky throughout the regular season. Tuesday showed what the offense looks like when they're all going at the same time. View full article

With the San Diego Padres set to reprise their Wild Card Round matchup with the Chicago Cubs from a year ago—only this time with the opportunity to host the best-of-three series—avenging their 2025 loss is top of mind for Craig Stammen's club. And as far as the bullpen goes, the Padres' most important reliever may not be Mason Miller or Adrian Morejon but rookie arm Bradgley Rodríguez. Don't get it twisted. Miller & Morejon will, in reality, be the two most frequently deployed relievers out of Craig Stammen's relief corps. In matters of playoff baseball, though, two relievers does not a bullpen make. It'll be a collective effort in the late innings, with Rodríguez representing the third part of a potential dynamite back three in high-leverage situations. That Rodríguez could earn that level of trust speaks to just how good he's been in 2026. With just a shade over seven big league innings to his name prior to this season, Rodríguez's 1.6 fWAR in relief ranks tied for 16th out of 150 qualifying relievers. He threw an even 74 innings in the regular season, with a 26.9 percent strikeout rate and a walk rate of only 6.6 percent. The numbers themselves don't quite tell the story like the percentile chart does, though: Even with an electric fastball and 84th percentile whiff rate, Rodríguez isn't a pitcher who has to rely solely on either one to find results. He can punch out opposing hitters, but his game relies even more on utilizing his stuff in a way that mitigates hard contact and gets the ball on the ground. Rodríguez's opposing hard-hit rate trails only Mason Miller and, weirdly, Yuki Matsui for the Padres' team lead, while his ground-ball rate is behind only Morejon. But as an arm not necessarily seen as an eighth or ninth-inning guy, the Friars have the ability to extend the skill set of their two best relievers into an even earlier frame than we might normally see Miller or Morejon trot out to the mound. Therein lies the biggest perk of Bradgley Rodríguez as a playoff reliever. His upside is, quite obviously, not what either of the team's two stalwarts possess in the eighth and ninth inning of games. But he offers a sort of blend of the two in mitigating quality contact and generating groundballs. When in doubt, the strikeouts are there too. It's a dynamic skill set that speaks to just how good the Padres are at developing (and maximizing) arms exactly like this. Rodríguez should immediately be penciled in as one of the more crucial arms in the relief corps with the playoffs soon to begin. Sure, the team has other arms that proven exceptionally reliable as the season has worn on. But Rodríguez is as close a quantity to either of Miller or Morejon as a team can get without actually having to rely solely on their top two guys. View full article

That the San Diego Padres spent much of the first half of 2026 trapped in such dire offensive straits is sort of a mystery given how the team was assembled on paper. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill are excellent headliners; Xander Bogaerts & Jake Cronenworth are capable secondary bats (albeit on increasingly tough-to-explain long-term deals); Gavin Sheets, Ty France, and Ramón Laureano are all tertiary threats. That's a group that, in theory, should have led the team out of the gate. Yet, the Padres spent almost all of the first half of the season stagnant on offense. Even as the team got off to a decent start and was in first place in the National League West in the middle of April, they finished the month well into the bottom half of the league in terms of their offensive production. That was nothing compared to the woeful output that awaited them in May. That month, the Padres were a bottom-three team in all of Major League Baseball in their fWAR accrued by position players (exactly 0.0). By wRC+, a purely offensive metric, they sat at 74 which indicated the collective as a well-below average unit ahead of only Colorado & Detroit. They hit just .200 for the month (30th), reached base at a .276 clip (also 30th), and were slugging .340 (29th). That absence of production came alongside a 24.5 percent strikeout rate that was the third-highest in the sport. All told, the Padres spent the first half as one of the league's worst offensive teams. Their statistical output ranked as follows: Runs (379): 30th Batting Average (.226): 30th On-Base Percentage (.302): 30th Slugging Percentage (.370): 29th K% (22.8): 20th BB (9.1): 13th ISO (.144): 25th wRC+ (90): 28th Even with strikeout and walk rates closer to the middle of the pack, there was simply no production to speak of. And no one player was immune to it. Only two players—Tatis & France—were above the average threshold by wRC+ in the first half at 102 & 124, respectively. Most notable among the disappointments was Merrill and his wRC+ of 76. As the trade deadline grew closer, though, the Padres started to find their groove. Tatis has been one of the best players in baseball over the last couple of month, Merrill has sorted himself, and France has sustained his surprising production. That's left the Padres looking like this in the second half: Runs (324): 3rd Batting Average (.268): 1st On-Base Percentage (.340): 3rd Slugging Percentage (.435): 2nd K% (19.9): 6th BB% (9.0): 11th ISO (.167): 6th wRC+ (118): 2nd It's not just that the Padres have been better in the second half of the year. They've been, outright, one of the best offensive teams in baseball. Tatis' reemergence as a superstar has been a driver of that turnaround, to be sure. But it's not on his shoulders alone. France has been even better. Merrill is carrying a 155 wRC+. Each of Machado & Bogaerts have managed to scratch and claw toward positive production. Even Jake Cronenworth has heated up over the last week. The output is coming from everywhere. While it's not only the offense that has taken the Padres from potential sellers to playoff entrants, it has been the offense serving as the leader of the hottest stretch of play we've seen from them all season. Given the questions that still persist in the rotation and the overworked state of the bullpen, that will have to continue into October in order for the Friars to make a deep run. View full article

In winning their second of three against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night, the San Diego Padres did something they'd never done in the franchise's history: reach the playoffs for three consecutive seasons. While seeding is still to-be-determined, they'll be one of the National League's three Wild Card clubs in 2026. On the surface, it may not seem like a particularly impressive accomplishment. Three years in the grand scheme of baseball? Not the biggest of potatoes. But the small field of actual playoff teams, even in the era of expanded Wild Card entrants relative to their professional counterparts makes it more of a rarity than one might initially realize. Sure, you have the historic 14-year streaks credited to the Braves and the Dodgers, or the New York Yankees that have done it four, five, six, or 13 times in a row (yes, those all are separate streaks). There are a few prestige organizations that serve as outliers. Generally, though, teams tend to reach their absolute ceiling at four or five. The Red Sox haven't done it more than three times in a row. The Cubs have only done it four times once. The Reds haven't done it more than twice. Those are three of the oldest organizations in the sport. So, three does actually represent an accomplishment in itself, especially for an organization that has only been around since 1969. Which means that there's plenty of merit in the accomplishment itself. At the same time, the Padres' particular set of circumstances allows us to take it one step further and declare that this is their finest work yet across this trio of postseason appearances. The 2024 team won 93 games. That was five games back of the Dodgers and tied for the third-best record in the National League. They had a top-five offense by wRC+ (111) and a top-five pitching staff by fWAR (19.6). That was a team much more fortified than this year's group, with an offense that featured above-average seasons from Jurickson Profar & Luis Arráez in addition to strong years from the core group of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and rookie Jackson Merrill. Last year's squad was not quite as complete. Nevertheless, they won 90 games, secured a Wild Card spot, and were three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Their offensive production landed much more middle-of-the-road, but their pitching staff's 3.64 ERA ranked third in all of baseball behind Dylan Cease, a healthy Nick Pivetta, and a bullpen that featured Robert Suárez, Adrian Morejon, and Jason Adam, along with trade-deadline acquisition Mason Miller. Both of those teams featured a fair bit of expectation in their projection. The 2024 team excelled on both sides of the ball, while the 2025 team likely fell short given injuries to Jackson Merrill and some struggles in the starting staff. The depth as a whole, however, was never really in question with either of those groups, and A.J. Preller was comfortable enough with their positioning that he felt comfortable being aggressive at the deadline on both occasions. Which sets this year's roster apart in a couple of different respects. For one, there wasn't a ton of expectation attached to the 2026 Padres. ZiPS, for example, had them finishing in third in the NL West. The 83 wins projected there were the same as ESPN, who had the Padres as the 16th-ranked team in the league before Opening Day. They were also among the teams PECOTA 'disliked' for 2026, with a projection of 82 wins. None of this is surprising considering their circumstances. Having let names like Cease, Arráez, and Ryan O'Hearn depart in free agency, budget constraints forced the Padres into upgrading their roster largely via one-year and non-guaranteed contracts. The lineup was filled out with the likes of Miguel Andujar, Nick Castellanos, and Ty France. While the bullpen remained strong, their rotation featured names like Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, and Germán Márquez, with Joe Musgrove's timeline in his return from Tommy John surgery remaining unclear from the outset. Many of those moves didn't work. Castellanos struggled and was designated for assignment early. Reserve outfielder Bryce Johnson didn't hang around long, either. Canning & Márquez each lost starting gigs in a wildly depleted rotation. Some, however, panned out beautifully. France has been excellent. Buehler has been a stabilizer as a lock for five innings in a starting role. They've been able to fill in a vacancy in left field courtesy of the likes of Luis Rengifo, Samad Taylor, and Dustin Harris. Also working against the Padres is the fact that they faced a number of injuries. Pivetta was lost early for most of the year. Musgrove still hasn't returned. Jake Cronenworth and Luis Campusano each missed extended time. Ramón Laureano hasn't been seen since May 30th. The upstart Rengifo tore his ACL in August. Andujar & Gavin Sheets each remain out (albeit with imminent returns). They've lost relievers, including Adam & Jeremiah Estrada, to multiple IL stints. Between the construction of the roster and the various injury woes the team faced (to say nothing of the team's offensive struggles that stretched across May & June), it wasn't surprising to see them where they were standings-wise in the days leading up to the trade deadline. On July 27, one week before the deadline, they were 53-53. Five teams were ahead of them in the NL wild card picture. At that particular moment in time, though, a switch was flipped. The offense began to hum a bit. The pitching staff stabilized, which was expected to be further compounded positively by the deadline acquisitions of Robbie Ray & Casey Mize. While there are a number of intricacies that have gone into their success, the Padres boast the league's best record since July 27 at 36-17. The offense has cooked, the pitching has done just enough out of the rotation, and the ever-reliable bullpen has continued to support all of it. There's an unquantifiable element within all of this in Craig Stammen's management. Some of his choices can be measured, including the team's pre-deadline (and more recent) embracing of "pitching chaos." The rest, though, is all about vibes, and it appears that Stammen's maintained a steady presence in a clubhouse that had plenty of reasons to call it good on 2026 well before the calendar actually indicated that the end was near. Considering the lackluster expectations, the half-hearted roster construction wrought by budget issues, and the injuries the team faced along the way, this is perhaps the best work the Padres have done over these last three seasons of postseason baseball. Reaching the playoffs with this particular team in this particular season was already an accomplishment. That the organization has now done it three times in a row, something not remotely as common as we may think, indicates that this is a team in a very good place within the broader context of Major League Baseball. Especially with new ownership now in place. Regardless of whatever long-term contracts may be on the books or whatever other narratives may be attached to the organization, there are few franchises as enviable as the San Diego Padres. Now, they have to make that matter in the playoffs. View full article

The San Diego Padres haven't seen Gavin Sheets suit up for a game since August 29. Placed on the injured list the same day as Luis Rengifo, Sheets has spent almost a full month on the shelf with a foot sprain and plantar plate tear. While that could require surgery during the offseason, it's possible that the team could activate him over the next couple of days ahead of what is expected to be a third consecutive playoff appearance. Of course, that activation would come at a diminished role given the aforementioned possible need for surgery. Which means that if Sheets is brought back and if we see him during the postseason, it would be in a pinch-hit or designated hitter capacity. That presents a couple of issues. The first among them is the roster gymnastics that the Padres would have to undergo in order to accommodate his presence on the roster. With Miguel Andujar also nearing a return, the Padres would have to fit two positionally-limited bats into what has become a fairly dynamic roster in the second half. Andujar may be easier to fit in the stead of someone like Austin Hays, a right-handed hitter who has been used sparingly, and only as a DH, over the last few weeks. Even through various injuries (namely Rengifo), the Padres have found worthwhile contributors in reserve roles. Dustin Harris & Samad Taylor have each been very good in limited duty for San Diego, each logging time in left field, while the current roster featuring three catchers has allowed them to deploy the more offensively-inclined Luis Campusano & Ethan Salas earlier in games (or in the DH spot) and turn to defense-first backstop Freddy Fermin later on in an as-needed basis. That also grants the gift of flexibility in the form of having Sung-Mun Song around as a reserve infielder. That's not to say that the Padres would lose their ability to move pieces around entirely upon Sheets' return altogether. But it would certainly limit things in a way that they are not at present. Which is especially important to consider when one examines the type of year Sheets is actually having. Prior to his IL placement, his line read .211/.313/.388 with an even 100 wRC+ across more than 400 plate appearances. There's plenty of bad luck in there (.229 BABIP), but that bad fortune also comes at the result of a 46.0 percent ground-ball rate that is nearly nine points higher than it was last year. Elevation has been an issue for a player that's supposed to be a secondary slugger in this lineup. Now, of course, Sheets excels as a left-handed hitter against righties. All 16 of his homers have come against right-handed arms this year, with a .206 ISO and 114 wRC+ against righties versus a .046 ISO and 33 wRC+ against southpaws. Still, Harris and Salas are also lefties. Both are, at this point in the year, more well-rounded as hitters than Sheets and offer more in the way of defensive acumen. Would the Friars really limit their exposure just to give Sheets a few platoon-friendly at-bats in October? It's a question at least worth asking. Sheets has a track record as recently as last year as being a key bat for the Padres. We just haven't seen him at his best all too frequently this year. In any case, it appears it's something the Padres are going to have to navigate over the next couple of days as they work to assemble their postseason roster. View full article

Among the many notable developments to transpire for the San Diego Padres in 2026, one of the more satisfying ones to watch unfold has been the long-term stability established behind the plate. While catcher has been a spot with plenty of turnover for the Friars in recent years, their current roster sports three that could merit consideration on a possible playoff roster: Freddy Fermin, Luis Campusano, and Ethan Salas. Fermin has been the starter throughout the season. He's logged timed behind the dish in 93 games to Campusano's 54, Rodolfo Durán's 37, and Salas' seven (along with a pair of appearances from Blake Hunt). While Campusano was on the shelf with a broken toe, it was Fermin that held down the fort, even in the face of some severe offensive struggles. It's those offensive struggles, however, that could call into question his standing as the team's starter should the team reach the postseason. Fermin isn't known as a terribly effective offensive catcher. Even by his modest standards, though, the 2026 season has been tough for him. He's slashed only .194/.268/.304 (63 wRC+) and has struck out at a career-high 21.2 percent clip. Even just when it looked like he was gaining traction with improvement in July (97 wRC+) and August (93 wRC+), he's cratered once again in September (58 wRC+ and a strikeout rate north of 30 percent). Nevertheless, Fermin has continued to provide value for the Padres on the strength of his defense. His Fielding Run Value of +9 ranks sixth among qualifying catchers, sitting above average in framing (+3 Framing Runs), blocking (+10 Blocks Above Average), and in his control of the opposing run game (+6 CS Above Average). However, with the steady improvement of Campusano and abrupt emergence of the 20-year-old Salas, could his gig be in peril at the highest leverage point in the calendar? Last week, our Steve Drumwright examined the possibility of Salas specifically usurping the job ahead of playoff time. Therein, Steve noted the fact that Salas has caught starters but hadn't been in games to catch the team's high-velocity relievers. Is there a world in which Fermin loses his starting job but holds onto a role as a late-inning guy to handle the likes of Mason Miller or Adrian Morejon? There's plenty of logic in it when you consider the need to maximize offense. Either of Campusano (September struggles notwithstanding) and Salas (lack of experience notwithstanding) represent significantly higher upside players on offense. Campusano's defense is closer to average, while Salas has always graded positively from the defensive side as a prospect. The downgrade on the less glamorous side may not be significant enough to justify punting one of the team's spots in the lineups (by starting Fermin). As such, it's entirely possible that the team adopts the type of gameplan noted in Steve's piece with not only Salas, but possibly with Campusano. Either may also find some plate appearances out of the designated hitter spot. Either way, a three-catcher situation seems increasingly feasible with Fermin facing a very possible reality that relegates him to late-inning duty as his bat continues to slump. View full article

The San Diego Padres are on the doorstep of a third consecutive postseason appearance. Jake Cronenworth could be the separator to get them there. As good as the Padres have been in the second half of 2026, they haven't gotten much from Cronenworth at any point in the year. He missed nearly two months on the concussion-related Injured List, with an otherwise underwhelming .229/.310/.327 line to his name across his 403 plate appearances. A wRC+ of 84, as things currently stand, would represent only the second time in his career he's finished a season below the average threshold of 100, with even Cronenworth's typical on-base bump for the lineup being stifled by a walk rate (8.9 percent) nearly five points below what he turned in last season. To this point, Cronenworth's woes haven't put his playing time in jeopardy. Injuries have left the Padres with less flexibility on the infield than even their already-modest depth would have suggested. While he's moved around a touch more to get guys off their feet, he's been in the mix virtually every day. That left the Friars with a pretty glaring empty spot in their lineup, at least until the past week. Declaring that Cronenworth has been on a tear for a week would be a dramatic understatement. Through his last 31 plate appearances, he's gone for an obscene .464/.516/.786 line with a wRC+ of 259. He's hit a pair of home runs in that stretch and has a .321 ISO overall, accruing 0.7 fWAR in a season where his total number is 0.2. Perhaps most notable is where his contact metrics sit. He's made hard contact 43.5 percent of the time against a 29.5 percent rate for the season, while his 13.0 percent barrel rate far exceeds the 3.7 percent mark he's totaled otherwise. Given the small sample associated with this kind of outburst, it's almost impossible to determine the underlying trend or determine if there's any level of sustainability to it (obviously, the production itself is unsustainable for any player). His swing and approach trends all fall within two or three points of his season-long rates. He's been a touch less aggressive overall, but more aggressive in chasing with improved contact rates across the board. His pitch type tendencies all feature just as much variance as we've seen throughout the year. It's simply too small a sample to make sense of anything. The important thing is that the Padres have another bat providing regular contributions that we haven't seen much from this year. There have been stretches where Cronenworth, perhaps, adds a hit over consecutive games. But we haven't seen anything quite like this from him in 2026. As the sample grows, maybe there's something unfolding that we'll be able to dissect. In the meantime, San Diego can bask in the glow of yet another bat getting hot at an ideal point on the calendar. View full article

Three months ago, having a conversation about 2026 accolades for San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. would've seemed pretty wild. Through the end of May, he ranked just 55th in fWAR among National League position players (0.6) while mired in one of the worst sustained power outages of his career (.051 ISO). Yet here in the middle of September, the conversation has taken on an entirely new form. Since June 1, only one player (more on that player in a moment) has accrued more fWAR than Tatis' 4.4. His .296 batting average since that point ranks 10th, his .364 on-base percentage sits 13th, and his .249 ISO checks in at eighth. Only six players have hit more than the 23 homers Tatis has slugged since that date on the calendar. His 149 wRC+ is fourth. It's a stretch that completely changed the complexion of his entire season. On the whole, Tatis' slash sits at .285/.355/.464. He has 24 home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 128 wRC+, to say nothing of his usual above-average marks on defense. And then you get into a percentile distribution like this: In just about every way, Tatis is blowing away whatever expectations he set in those first few months. Not only has he shaken off his struggles early in the year—a qualifier used to specifically note his lack of power production—he's reestablished himself as one of the top-tier players in the National League. That should be worth something when it comes to awards season. Of course, in any conversation about the NL's Most Valuable Player award, it's important to acknowledge certain realities. The award is Pete Crow-Armstrong's to lose at this point. His 10.1 fWAR is well above second-place Elly De La Cruz's 5.8 and he is still striving for a 40-homer, 40-steal campaign. He's been the class of the league in 2026. Which is why it's so impressive that Tatis is even in the conversation at this point. His torrid pace since the start of June has his full-season output at a place where he's sixth in the National League in fWAR, 13th in wRC+, and in the top 15-20 in a number of other categories. His 36 swipes also trail only Crow-Armstrong among his NL counterparts. So, while it's incredibly unlikely we'll see Tatis grab any first-place votes for the MVP award, his name should appear across a number of different ballots. Considering where things started for him (and stayed for two months), even that feels like an outcome worth celebrating. View full article

As the San Diego Padres struggled to get their offense going early in the year, attention turned toward their three core bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Manny Machado. In the months that followed, Tatis has reemerged as a superstar while Merrill has largely figured out his end of the offensive bargain as well. That just leaves one outlier among the marquee trio: Machado. Throughout the season, the veteran's power numbers have been almost exactly what they've been over the last handful of seasons. As of this writing, he's at 28 home runs after posting totals of 30, 29, and 27 in the three preceding years, respectively. His isolated power figure sits at .190 after .204, .197, and .185 over that same three-year stretch. Yet, this particular season in 2026 is one wherein Machado has struggled to barely scratch above average in matters of wRC+. He sits at a perfectly average 100 despite that power output and features the same number in OPS+. Which means that, regardless of your tool of choice, the 34-year-old has been roughly average despite serving as one of the team's three-most important hitters in a year in which they're chasing down a Wild Card spot in the National League. It'd be easy to say that Machado has simply run into some bad luck. After all, he's walking more than ever (11.6 percent) and has a bat speed figure (74.7 MPH) that ranks in the 80th percentile (comfortably above the 72.7 MPH average). Perhaps we could just pin his .219/.308/.409 line on a .233 batting average on balls in play and hope that the chips fall in his favor again in 2027. Except that wouldn't tell the whole story. Despite the impressive power, decent approach, and sustained bat speed, Machado's quality of contact has waned. His barrel rate (10.0 percent) is roughly three points below his 2025 clip, while his 44.3 percent rate of hard contact is more than seven points below the number he posted last year. Worse yet for Machado, his .248 expected batting average isn't a far cry higher than where he's actually landing on the stat sheet this year. So, while there's certainly been an element of luck actively working against him, it's not so severe that we can chalk it up to only that. A quick glimpse at his approach and swing trends indicate that he's not experiencing the same level of success against pitch types other than fastballs: The overall hard-hit rate is down across the board, but Machado's work against off-speed and breaking pitches (in matters of hard contact) has plummeted. He's actually swinging at fewer of each type and chasing roughly the same as he has in the last few seasons. It's possible that there's something mechanical at play that's dragging down his ability to create quality contact against those pitch types, but it's not as if the same trend has played out against fastballs—it's just not as severe. In any case, that's a separate conversation. Our question here is whether we can deem Manny Machado's 2026 season to be a success on the merits of his power alone. If there's a saving grace here, it's that Machado's ISO doesn't dissipate in situations that would be deemed clutch. His ISO with the bases empty is .187 and rises to .206 with runners on and .192 with runners in scoring position. The power has played regardless of the situation. At the same time, when you're looking at a number of trends that are actively working downward—for a player who already possessed questions about his confrontation with the aging curve—it would be really difficult to justify calling this campaign anything but a disappointing one. That the power has been there is a nice reprieve, but given how much the Padres have battled injury and downtrodden performance from elsewhere on their roster, they needed all three of their marquee names to serve the offense in an all-around capacity. The fact that Machado hasn't done that would make it rather misguided to call it anything but a down year. View full article

Given how offseason budget constraints forced the San Diego Padres to assemble their roster, the bench was always something of a question for the 2026 team. Sure enough, the progression of this season has been fraught with turnover via designation for assignment (Nick Castellanos), injury (Gavin Sheets, Samad Taylor), and underperformance (Sung-Mun Song). Luis Rengifo was sort of a saving grace upon his selection to the roster back in July, but a torn ACL brought his season to an unceremonious end as the team continued to struggle to piece together a reserve group. Enter Dustin Harris. A castoff of the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros this season, Harris signed a minor-league deal with the Padres back in July. He lit up opposing pitching in El Paso to the tune of a .350/.422/.617 line before being selected to the major-league roster toward the end of August. In the wake of the injuries to Rengifo & Sheets (alongside the continued absence of Ramón Laureano), Harris has helped the bench remain afloat in a number of ways. It's not just that Harris has performed well, though he's certainly done so with a .347/.389/.469 line through his first 55 plate appearances. He's also added a pair of doubles, two triples, and four stolen bases on five attempts. Beyond the performance is the type of role he's been able to fill. While Harris has gotten regular work in left field given the myriad of injuries the team has faced, he's also played in both right and center while serving as a pinch hitter and pinch runner on multiple occasions. That flexibility also applies to the batting order, where Harris has hit in six different spots. Even without a power element in his game, his ability to create contact and work his way on base makes him a benefit to the lineup in any spot on a given day. What's particularly important about Harris' ability to move around both the outfield and the batting order is his relation to a lineup that doesn't feature a ton of flexibility. Their regulars are almost all locked into their specific positions, with Song representing the only reserve infielder capable of actually moving around. Harris performing as well as he has has allowed Craig Stammen to move Fernando Tatis Jr. back to second base on occasion and maintain some semblance of upside in the wake of big struggles from Song & Jake Cronenworth. It really is a crucial development for the Padres and Stammen's ability to manage the roster. Rengifo had played so well prior to his injury in a way that supplemented the roster as well as any one player can. Harris' performance through his first 50-ish plate appearances has allowed them to maintain that, to the point where FanGraphs has him grabbing over 50 percent of the time in left field moving forward. Such a development speaks to just how essential his presence has proven to be over the last handful of weeks and moving into the home stretch of the regular season. View full article

Prior to 2026, Luis Campusano had never really gotten his opportunity to solidify a role with the San Diego Padres. Previously looked at as a bat-first catcher, the most extensive run he got was 299 plate appearances in 2024 where he was almost entirely unplayable behind the dish. It's otherwise been a smattering of up-and-down travel from El Paso, none of it sustainable. This season, however, has represented a shift. While Campusano's 224 plate appearances won't represent a career-high, it's not due to a lack of faith from first-year manager Craig Stammen. Rather, that's the byproduct of a midsummer injury. Because when Campusano's been healthy, he's been in the mix. And Stammen has had every justification to run his No. 2 catcher out there as much as possible. Campusano's line on the season stands at .268/.366/.438. His wRC+ is at 130, his ISO is at .170, and he's shown enough defensive growth throughout the season to justify a place as the team's backup behind Freddy Fermin. His role as a pure bat has also expanded. With Gavin Sheets and Miguel Andujar each missing time in the season's second half, Campusano has gotten more run as the team's designated hitter; after appearing just once as a DH prior to the end of July, he's done it 10 times (two as a pinch-hitter) since the start of August. In general, it's all optimism around the output of Luis Campusano this season. But here at the midway point of September, some struggles are beginning to emerge in a way that they hadn't in the months prior. Much of the positive work Campusano turned in came in April & July, with the two months in between becoming a wash due to a fractured toe. On either end of the injury, though, he posted identical .326 averages, on-base figures of .380 & .456, and a combined wRC+ of 152. While there wasn't as much power in the latter of the two months, he walked more than 19 percent of the time and got plenty of fortune on batted balls. August is where we saw things slow down a touch. His wRC+ slipped to 112, but the power bumped back up (.115 ISO), and he continued to turn in strong numbers thanks to his plate approach (13.1 BB%). The calendar flipping over to September, however, hasn't left us with as much room for optimism. Midway through the month (52 plate appearances), Campusano's slash reads .229/.288/.438. His walk rate has fallen to below six percent. The power, at a .208 ISO, has become the only redeeming factor as his bat is just scratching above the average threshold (103 wRC+) in the first two weeks of the season's final month. While it's a concerning level of decline given what we saw over the first handful of months of the season, it's also not something that's particularly mysterious. Campusano has become more aggressive: His 54.4 percent swing rate is his highest in an individual month. With the exception of an even 50 percent back in April, it's actually startlingly higher than any other month. His chase rate has ballooned to 34.5 percent. It hasn't led to any decrease in the contact trends, but the quality of it has waned; his hard-hit rate of 28.9 percent is 14 percentage points lower than it was in July and seven points lower than it was in August. That has, in turn, led to a decline in his batted-ball fortune, where his BABIP is just .229 for the month. There are myriad reasons why this shift could be occurring, but it seems likely that Campusano is selling out for power. The increase in swing rate coupled with the fact that his 74.7 MPH bat speed this month is easily his fastest of the season is indicative of such a mindset. That he's not losing anything in terms of his contact rates speaks to his ability to make contact, but the loss of a mature plate approach has sapped him of actual production by decreasing the quality of said contact. This is something that Campusano will have to rein in down the stretch if he's to continue being a crucial supplemental bat for the Padres. There aren't any questions about what we saw earlier in the year, but that early success has wrought new expectations. At a time when the Friars need all the offense they can get, a more well-rounded approach from Campusano would go a long way toward lengthening the lineup. View full article