Randy Holt

The wait is finally over. The San Diego Padres will be back on the field at Petco Park on Thursday afternoon, playing host to Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers. It was a long wait for the announcement of the roster, but we now have clarity as to what the on-field team will look like early on. Of course, even upon the return of Joe Musgrove, Sung Mun Song, et al, there's a slight tempering of expectations as to where the Padres could fall when 2026 comes to a close. FanGraphs, for example, figures them for fourth in the division with an 80-82 record. Baseball Prospectus is slightly more optimistic in projecting them to finish third and just a hair behind the San Francisco Giants (81.4 win projection). The Padres and their limited financial wiggle room with which to make improvements this winter will have a lot to do in order to drive more optimism around their fortunes. Nevertheless, this is still a team that features Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill at the top of their lineup, as well as the league's most dominant bullpen. With good supplemental production from the lineup and in the rotation, it shouldn't be too difficult for those projections to change quickly. Of course, they'll stare down Skubal to start the year. Getting runs across against the reigning two-time American League Cy Young winner is no easy feat for a team that finished in the bottom half of the league in offensive production versus left-handed pitchers. Nevertheless, this is a different group with different leadership, so there's nothing to stand on as far as what carryover could look like in that department. Beyond that, let's talk about what else you need to know ahead of Opening Day 2026. Opening Day Roster Catchers: Freddy Fermin, Luis Campusano Infielders: Gavin Sheets, Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Miguel Andujar, Nick Castellanos, Ty France Outfielders: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Ramón Laureano, Bryce Johnson Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Germán Marquez, Walker Buehler Relief Pitchers: Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta, Kyle Hart, Bradgley Rodriguez, Ron Marinaccio As far as lineup construction goes, Gavin Sheets is going to get the bulk of the work at first base when a right-hander is on the mound. He can also work as the designated hitter or fill in somewhere in an outfield corner on occasion. Against a lefty, though, it's anybody's guess. France just won a Gold Glove. Miguel Andujar hits lefties well. Nick Castellanos had a nice spring and adjusted well to the position. There's going to be a heavy rotation between that spot, the DH, and as an occasional corner outfielder throughout that group, so the early part of the season will inform how Craig Stammen could rotate it out as we progress through 2026. The starting staff is another notable element here. Each of Marquez and Buehler got rotation spots with Joe Musgrove starting the season on the Injured List. Randy Vásquez doesn't have the most stable track record, even if he finished the 2025 season on a high note. King was prone to health and efficiency woes last year. It's perhaps the most concerning element of the roster, one that will have to be heavily support by the dominance of the relief corps. Opening Day Injured List Joe Musgrove (Starting Pitcher) Matt Waldron (Starting Pitcher) Griffin Canning (Starting Pitcher) Jason Adam (Relief Pitcher) Yuki Matsui (Relief Pitcher) Will Wagner (Utility) Sung Mun Song (Utility) There's plenty of depth upon which the Padres will rely on before long that's starting the year on the shelf. Song will be a key component in supplementing at least three spots with both his glove and his bat. Musgrove will be crucial as an innings-eater while each of Waldron and Canning represent important depth in the rotation. Adam will add another upper-tier arm to the late innings while Matsui is likely to supplant Hart as a middle-relief lefty upon his return. There isn't anything overly concerning here, but it's a decent volume of regular contributors that they'll start without. Major Storylines First Base/Designated Hitter Hodgepodge: We've already discussed it, but how playing time is distributed between Sheets, Castellanos, Andujar, and France will be a fascinating development to watch early on. Starting Pitcher Innings: Starting pitchers, in general, don't work too deep into games early in the season as they continue to build up their workload for the stretch run. But being able to work deep enough for the Padres to deploy their bullpen to its benefit and not leave the early part of the season completely overworked is going to be key. On-Paper vs. Real Life: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill are the three best players on this team. Yet Tatis disappeared for stretches while Merrill fought through multiple injuries in 2025. They need each to be closer to the on-paper version of themselves than the iteration we saw at various points last year. Song's (Eventual) Arrival: Whenever Sung-mun Song makes his debut, it's likely we start seeing him worked in the lineup on a near-daily basis given his utility. How the offensive profile — which included a 25-homer, 25-steal campaign in his last season in the KBO — translates will tell us a lot about how much value he can add to the run production that we know is so crucial for this team to find success. Game Info: Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. Nick Pivetta (SD) Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10 PM PT Location: Petco Park; San Diego, CA Broadcast: PADRES.TV, Detroit SportsNet, MLB app View full article

The San Diego Padres entered the 2025-26 offseason with questions abounding throughout several aspects of their roster. Corner outfield was not among those questions, however. On one hand, it helps when you have Fernando Tatis Jr. holding down one side of the outfield grass. While it didn’t come without frustrating stretches, Tatis Jr reestablished himself as one of the premier players in Major League Baseball courtesy of a 6.1 fWAR figure that ranked 10th among big league regulars. The other side of the outfield remained a struggle for much of the year. What began as a platoon between Jason Heyward and Connor Joe quickly devolved. Neither was long for the roster, and the Padres spent much of the rest of the first half watching the adventures of Gavin Sheets and a rotating cast of other reserves. At the trade deadline, A.J. Preller was able to address the spot with a move that stabilized the position in the form of Ramón Laureano. While Laureano would miss the postseason because of a finger injury, he turned in strong enough numbers down the stretch that made exercising his $6.5 million club option an easy call. That’s the duo bookending Jackson Merrill for much of 2026. Unlike last year, though, the team actually boasts some depth. Each of Sheets, Miguel Andujar, and Nick Castellanos can handle a corner for a spell, with the team also aiming to expand the versatility of Sung Mun Song to get his bat in the lineup as frequently as possible. As far as positional groups on this roster go, the brass shouldn’t have a difficult time feeling confident about this group. Padres Corner Outfielders At A Glance Starters: Ramón Laureano (LF), Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) Backups: Gavin Sheets, Miguel Andujar, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Johnson Depth: Alex Verdugo, Sung Mun Song Prospects: Tirso Ornelas, Braedon Karpathios LF fWAR Ranking Last Year: 21st (1.3) RF fWAR Ranking Last Year: 5th (6.1) LF fWAR Projection This Year: 19th (1.8) RF fWAR Projection This Year: 2nd (5.4) The Good The outfield corners might just represent the most stable aspects of the 2026 roster. Everywhere else you look, there are significant question. The infield has them. The pitching staff certainly has them. Outside of the bullpen, you have to feel good about what this duo in the corners offers the team. Tatis Jr finished a season healthy. While he may have been held back by a nagging injury or two in the summer, he appeared in 155 games, hit 25 homers, stole 32 bases, and brought elite defense to right field. If he can recoup some on the power side — and indications are that some mechanical settling should help him to do just that — then this momentum he's building up for Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic could very well carry over into the regular season. The same could be said of Laureano. His 2025 season was his best across the board since 2019, including an isolated power figure that was 35 points better than any individual mark he'd posted in the years since. If his growth in the approach is for real, it could yield real power dividends for a team that needed to scrape it from anywhere they could find it last season. The improved depth also marks a positive for this group. The following is a list of players that appeared in either corner for the Padres in 2025 beyond their two projected starters: Gavin Sheets (64 games in LF) Jason Heyward (30 games in LF, four games in RF) Brandon Lockridge (30 games in LF, three games in RF) Bryce Johnson (26 games in LF, 10 games in RF) Tyler Wade (17 games in LF, three games in RF) Oscar González (14 games in LF, five games in RF) Tirso Ornelas (five games in LF) Trenton Brooks (two games in LF) Jose Iglesias (one game in LF) Connor Joe (one game in LF) Three of those players remain in the organization. The combination of Sheets, Andujar, and Castellanos may not offer much on the defensive side, but each raises the floor of this position group significantly in the event of an injury or a day off. There's also a chance that Sung Mun Song could provide a higher quality of defense once he gets a little more work on the grass, as the team has expressed a desire to maximize his versatility. The Bad As stable as the group looks on paper, there's a certain streakiness and a mild uncertainty that could manifest for the Padres corner outfielders in 2026. After a torrid start to last year, Tatis Jr's wRC+ in May was just 74. He recovered some offensive value in June, but with an ISO of just .102. He repeated the trend between July and August before tapping back into his aggression and posting big power numbers in September. While Laureano wasn't prone to the same type of month-to-month variance, he did bookend the year with a brutal showing. His wRC+ with Baltimore in April was 74 before posting an 83 in September before the finger injury shut him down. Any player is prone to a stretch of poor production. That's not unique to Tatis Jr or Laureano. The reason you worry is because neither has a recent track record of genuinely sustained success. In fact, their career paths are somewhat similar given injury and prior suspensions for performance-enhancing drugs. You feel good about Tatis Jr given where the upside was before 2022 and what the skill set has always been. You feel less sure about Laureano given the career stagnation that unfolded between 2019 and 2025 before he broke back out in the latter. The defense represents a much more tangible concern, at least in left field. Laureano's metrics don't look nearly as favorable as they did early in his career, bottoming out with a -9 Outs Above Average that sat in just the second percentile. Only five outfielders graded worse by way of OAA than Laureano did, even if his arm strength remains. Perhaps even worse is the fact that Nick Castellanos was one of those five, tying Juan Soto's -12 OAA as the work mark among all outfielders that qualified. If we were to expand that to a minimum of 50 outfield attempts, Andujar's -3 led the group in being ranked 135th out of 183 while Sheets' -5 ranked 160th. It's not as if the Padres are a reputable defensive club to begin with, but it'll be interesting to see how well the offensive upside can compensate for the defensive shortcomings. The Bottom Line That the concerns are rooted in the abstract and hypotheticals more than any tangible concern speaks to the strength the San Diego Padres feature in the corners of their outfield, especially in comparison to what the situation looked like last year. Outfield defense doesn't bear the same negative impact that it may in other areas, so even that doesn't represent a significant reason for worry over what the pair of starters and their trio of reserves could look like in 2026. Ultimately, when you're talking about a position that features one of the 10 or so best players in baseball and another coming off a breakout, you're in a good spot. The Padres are, in fact, in a good spot here. Fernando Tatis Jr's stock is pointing up after a good season and an even stronger showing in the WBC, while a full season with a healthy Laureano should be massive for the lineup at large. As much variance as the Padres' collective fortunes might bear ahead of the new season, it's not coming from the corner outfield. View full article

The 2025 San Diego Padres were one of the meekest teams in Major League Baseball. As a collective, both their 152 home runs and .138 isolated power ranked 28th in the league. Plenty of context goes into that, of course. Regardless of the particulars, though, this was a team that was not built for power. It remains to be seen how much the on-paper dynamic has changed ahead of 2026. Yes, the team went out and signed Sung Mun Song, Miguel Andujar, and Nick Castellanos to shore up their offensive depth. But Song's game may need time to adjust, Andujar is more platoon-dependent on the power side, and Castellanos is coming off some of the worst offensive production of his career. The volume approach could very well work, but there's also a wide array of outcomes for the team's current construction. Which is why the offensive progression of someone like Jake Cronenworth becomes essential in the broader context of the latest iteration of the Padres. It was four full seasons ago now that Cronenworth peaked in the power game. His .194 ISO in 2021 isn't just a mark that he's failed to top since then, but one that he hasn't come within 40 points of in subsequent seasons. Cronenworth's 11 home runs in 2025 were his second-fewest in a full season, while his .131 ISO last year represented a bottoming-out in that regard. That doesn't mean Cronenworth has been without value, however. In the years since he last demonstrated such consistent power, Cronenworth's earned his keep via patience. His 10.3 percent walk rate since 2022 ranks 65th among 306 qualifying players, and his walking at a 13.4 percent clip in 2025 ranked 12th. It helped that only six players in the league saw more pitches than Cronenworth's 4.22 per plate appearance last year, while his chase rate finished in the 86th percentile. There's value in that, even as an average baserunner for the bigger bats in the lineup. But with vastly different potential outcomes awaiting the Padres offense in 2026, it'd behoove him to adjust in a way that taps into the power of old at least on occasion to drive up his value beyond what it reads in the on-base percentage column. Luckily, Cronenworth appears poised to do just that. The following is a distribution of the various swing factors Cronenworth demonstrated in 2025: There isn't a whole lot in there to indicate that Cronenworth should be finding power outcomes upon contact. His attack angle was below league average and the swing path was right around it. So, while the latter indicates he was steeper to the ball, he wasn't gaining elevation upon contact. Additionally, he posted an attack direction that generated up-the-middle-contact. Low line drives up the middle yield base hits, certainly. But produce power outcomes they do not. Toss in a swing that sits just below league average in its speed while operating with a length that isn't exactly short, and there aren't really any factors lending themselves to the idea of power in Cronenworth's case. Thus far in the spring, though, Cronenworth has concentrated on improving in a few of these areas. His bat speed, for one. A more consistent bat path — perhaps one that doesn't invoke a steep angle to shallow contact — is on the agenda as well via improving his lower half balance throughout the swing. While bat tracking data isn't widely available for exhibition games, the results have been there thus far for Cronenworth. Now on the verge of Opening Day, his spring output included a .167 ISO and 57.4 percent hard-hit rate. He started elevating, too, with a 34.4 percent groundball rate that sits lower that any regular season clip he's posted in his career. He also hit the first opposite field homer of his career earlier in the month (even if the spring training of it all doesn't allow it to count). It's a small sample (50 plate appearances), but the adjustments have been on display within the spring window. It'll be interesting to see not only how the improvement sustains, but whether the changes are later reflected in his visual mechanics. It cannot be overstated how valuable such improvements sustaining into the regular season would be for both Cronenworth and for the Padres. While their volume approach to the roster could lead to some improvement in the power game, an everyday player getting back to his previous upside in that regard would be absolutely massive. Parlaying patience with improved quality of contact could very well have Jake Cronenworth among the most important pieces of this roster in 2026. View full article

Recent years across Major League Baseball have shown that you don't have to be an elite defensive team to make a deep playoff run. But it helps. The Toronto Blue Jays were the best defensive team in the league last year, according to Statcast's Fielding Run Value. They posted a mark of 44, which finished four runs ahead of the Chicago Cubs and 16 ahead of the third-place Cleveland Guardians. The Los Angeles Dodgers, meanwhile, ranked 18th in FRV at -1. Of course, they were also one of just three teams that scored over 800 runs in 2025, negating whatever advantage another team could have in the field. More than anything, quality defense helps a team to compensate on the margins for those periods where a different element of their game may not be producing in the way that it should. In the case of the Padres, the defensive component is now more essential than ever. Last year's offense was prone to down stretches, and while they've taken a volume approach that can keep the lineup afloat, they're working behind a starting pitching staff that's been cobbled together by past-their-prime veterans and non-roster invitees. As good as the bullpen may be, the variance at the plate combined with a shaky starting group will help to illustrate the importance of the defensive phase within the broader fortunes of the 2026 team. The Padres were 20th in the league in FRV last year -1. They were also below average in Outs Above Average (-7) but ranked in the top half of the league in Defensive Runs Saved (28). Each metric measures something different. OAA is about outs recorded and includes range as a factor. DRS is about runs prevented and lacks some of the nuance of a positional adjustment that OAA has. For our purpose, we'll utilize FRV due to its more comprehensive nature in examining a player range and arm, among other factors. This is how each projected Padre regular figured in the FRV game in 2025: Freddy Fermin (C): 0 FRV Jake Cronenworth (2B): -1 FRV Xander Bogaerts (SS): 7 FRV Manny Machado (3B): -4 FRV Ramón Laureano (LF): -5 FRV Jackson Merrill (CF): 5 FRV Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF): 9 FRV One of the things that makes FRV valuable as a defensive metric is that it includes catcher adjustments as part of its calculation (other metrics have a more difficult time integrating catchers). The Padres finished at -4 FRV as a catching group, which was largely held down by Martín Maldonado & Elías Díaz prior to the acquisition of Fermin ahead of last year's trade deadline. Even at exactly average, Fermin should represent a sizable improvement in the work behind the plate. Maldonado, in particular, was woeful in the metrics posted at catcher. He sat below average in blocking, throwing, and framing. Díaz was closer to average or slightly below in each regard. That means that on the merit of their starter alone, the Padres are looking at improvement behind the plate. It's when you look past the starter that things get a bit more questionable. In 2024, Luis Campusano caught enough innings to qualify for the defensive leaderboard. His FRV that year came in at -13, which tied with Shea Langeliers for the league's worst mark. His defense was bad enough that even a team as thin at the position as the Padres were last year essentially refused to give him a crack at regular work, electing to roll out the Maldonado-Díaz tandem for much of the year instead (despite the upside Campusano possesses at the plate). We'll have to see if a full spring within the context of being the for-sure backup yields anything positive, but given what the Padres seem to gain with Fermin as the No. 1, it may be difficult to compensate if he goes down or misses time. The middle infield doesn't represent a source of concern in the same way. Jake Cronenworth graded slightly below average in range and exactly average with his arm. Where he lost points in the FRV calculation was in his inability to turn double plays, where he finished at -2. There's some pretty stiff competition on the leaderboard in range at second base, but there are also some regulars held in higher esteem that were far worse off in the field than he was. Factor in the part where his running mate on the middle infield missed almost a full month while readjusting to a position that he hadn't played full-time in two years, and there's some optimism that he could be slightly back toward where he was pre-2023 (2 FRV). Speaking of names about which there is little worth being concerned about, Xander Bogaerts returns after missing most of September of last year with an injury. Since demonstrating marked improvement with the glove between the 2021 and 2022 seasons when he was still in Boston, Bogaerts has yet to post a season where he is below average in the eyes of the metrics. While his weaker arm pins him down a bit in the FRV calculations, his range is undeniable. That becomes a key component when you're talking about the potential area of concern to his right. After falling from 10 FRV to 0 between 2023 and 2024, Manny Machado dropped yet again in 2025. His -4 FRV was his worst since 2019, wrought by a poorly-graded arm that was also his lowest since that first year in San Diego. Last May, we wondered if there was a positioning factor at play in such a rapid regression. The conclusion at the time was that Machado's positioning had certainly changed and may have played a role in his regression. But we also were unsure of the reason for such a change. What we do know, however, is that it's something worth monitoring. Machado was better from that point on, with a -1 FRV from June through the end of the year, and a leadership change on the bench could have some impact on what positioning looks like for him. His body isn't what it used to be, so any chance to regain an advantage and capitalize on what remains a quality arm should help him to recover some value there. The Padres' outfield is more unique in this discussion, as two of their three spots are of no concern. Jackson Merrill has thrived with the glove, even when he's mired in an injury-riddled season like he was last year. Meanwhile, Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the sport's premier defenders and has the hardware to back it up. Instead, the only real concern lies in the -5 FRV of Ramón Laureano, who is poised to handle full-time duty after being acquired from the Baltimore Orioles at last year's trade deadline. What's interesting about Laureano in left is that his inclusion on the leaderboard only accounts for his time post-deadline. Even so, his FRV was the worst among qualifying Padres defenders last year. And that's with an arm value that sits in the 92nd percentile among all MLB players. It's also important to acknowledge that defensive metrics rely heavily on sample size to find validity. It's hard to put too much stock in a 400-or-so inning sample. Nevertheless, that so much of his negative FRV is indicative of a range issue — something that was also problematic when his range accounted for -6 of his overall -2 FRV in 2024 — may not bode super well for improving on a position that ranked 15th in FRV last year. It's a much more enigmatic situation than the team has anywhere else on the field. Can playing next to Merrill help? Can the arm compensate more for the range over a full season? Either way, the fact that there's stability has to mean something on the defensive front against the rotating cast of characters left field saw last year. You will note that there has yet to be a discussion about first base as part of this larger exploration of team defense. That represents sort of an important position on the field in its need to effectively support the rest of the infield defenders. The fact is that this position is a complete wild card in matters of the San Diego Padres' defense in 2026. Each of Gavin Sheets, Nick Castellanos, and Miguel Andujar have either zero or minimal sample on which to hang their defensive hat. Other than a decent showing in a small sample from Sheets last year, there is simply no way of knowing where the numbers may end up in this position by the end of 2026. It's because of that that it becomes fairly difficult to state that the Padres can be a better defensive team in 2026 than they were last year. There are certainly things that indicate that they should be. Fermin and Laureano as full-time contributors, Cronenworth back in a full-time position, Machado's improvement after a brutal start, and Sung Mun Song's presence as a utility fielder all paint a rosier picture this time around. The defense should be, at worst, league average. First base, however, will have a lot to say about how far above or below they land on that threshold when it's all said and done. View full article

Coming into the offseason, there may not have been a position with more uncertainty for the San Diego Padres than first base. While the team retained Gavin Sheets, the two names that logged the most time at the spot both appeared set to depart in free agency. Of course, that would come to fruition as Luis Arráez (117 games) and Ryan O'Hearn (27 games) signed deals with San Francisco and Pittsburgh, respectively. That left just Sheets and Cronenworth (13 games apiece) as players on the roster who spent any time at the cold corner in 2025. Fortunately, the volume approach that the organization took to the roster impacted first base most heavily. They were never in on the likes of Pete Alonso via free agency or Willson Contreras via trade. Instead, Craig Stammen declared early that Sheets would get the first crack, with the signings of Miguel Andujar and Nick Castellanos to follow. That left four options on the roster including Cronenworth. Then, Ty France and José Miranda were each added on minor-league deals as well. Factor in the idea that Sung Mun Song's versatility as an infielder is likely to be expanded to include a few quick stints — and that Luis Campusano is capable of handling it for a spell — and the Padres appear to be well-suited at first base for 2026. The only question is what the playing time distribution will look like. FanGraphs has Sheets with a healthy edge in playing time as he's projected for 53 percent of the first base innings. They like Nick Castellanos for the second-most time (22 percent), followed by France (10 percent), Cronenworth (eight percent), and Andujar (four percent). Song and Miranda make up the last three percent of the time combined. Baseball Prospectus agrees only in the sense that it'll be Sheets ahead of everyone else (40 percent). From there, it goes Cronenworth and Andujar (25 percent each), Castellanos (five percent), and Campusano (five percent). None of Song, France, or Miranda are included, most likely due to the non-guaranteed contracts of the latter two. All of that indicates that there isn't a lot of certainty around how the playing time distribution could shake out, especially early in the season. Nevertheless, with Sheets, Cronenworth, Castellanos, and Andujar all on guaranteed contracts (and at least one of France or Miranda with a decent chance at cracking the roster given their strong springs), Craig Stammen has plenty at his disposal to get the most out of the position. San Diego Padres First Baseman At A Glance Starter: Gavin Sheets Backup: Nick Castellanos, Miguel Andujar Depth: Jake Cronenworth, Sung Mun Song, Ty France, José Miranda Prospects: Romeo Sanabria fWAR Ranking Last Year: 20th (0.9) fWAR Projection This Year: 28th (0.8) The Good Volume is a never a bad thing to have, especially when it allows a manager to play the matchups as much as possible. That goes double for a position like first base, where the goal is to maximize power given the position's profile. Unsurprisingly, Sheets was much better against right-handed pitchers (119 wRC+) than he was against lefties (89 wRC+) in 2025. His power was especially notable against pitchers of the opposite handedness, with a .202 ISO against righties as opposed to the .113 mark he went for against left-handed arms. The same could be said of Andujar. While he was above average against pitchers of both handedness, his 171 wRC+ against left-handers far exceeds that of the 108 wRC+ he posted otherwise. His .189 ISO was also exactly 50 points higher. We can't glean that same kind of trend out of Castellanos after an abysmal last year in Philadelphia, but Cronenworth offers someone a little more split-neutral everywhere but in his power output. That's a lot of chess pieces at Stammen's disposal, which should yield some positives throughout the rest of the lineup. Given the setup, he can slide either of Andujar or Sheets to left or Castellanos to right. Cronenworth would move to first while Song logs time at second. France and Miranda, should either make the roster, can flip over to the hot corner to get Manny Machado off his feet for a day. It opens up a ton of different lineup possibilities and raises the floor of the position significantly from what Arráez and O'Hearn's respective skill sets offered last year. The Bad If you have eight players that could log time at first base, you probably don't have a first baseman. While it's unlikely that the volume approach fails at this particular spot considering the names involved, there's at least a possibility that this is the worst defensive position on the field for the Padres in 2026. A primary factor in FanGraphs' WAR figure not only indicating a regression for the position, but projecting it to be among the worst in the sport, is in the defense. Sheets is a -3 Outs Above Average player there in his career. Cronenworth was at -2 OAA last season. If he were to make the roster, Miranda is at -4 OAA. If Ty France did, he's two years removed from a -12 OAA season, with no way of knowing if he'll repeat the 10 OAA to which he bounced back last year. Further, Andujar has just 30 innings there, and Castellanos hasn't appeared there in a major-league game. Ditto for Sung-mun Song in the KBO. Of the seven players for which FanGraphs projects time, only Sheets is expected to fall on the positive end of their fielding metric. It's also difficult to know whether you'll see improvement when the playing time might be inconsistent until Stammen settles into what he wants from that spot. So, while it's unlikely that we see this area of the roster fail completely given the volume and the flexibility available, there's also massive questions about what this spot will look like defensively and who can rise above to become the cream of the crop. The Bottom Line It's highly probable that we see Gavin Sheets run out at first base for the bulk of the time in 2026. He offers the most reasonable defensive aptitude while demonstrating visible growth at the plate last season. But one of the ways a manager can support a player is by offering the platoon solution to protect him as needed. Stammen has that at his disposal with Sheets, where each of Castellanos, Andujar, et al will be in the mix to support him. That should bode well at the position, providing consistent production given that each of these hitters has at least some track record of offensive success to their names. While it may be somewhat worrisome that the team didn't bring in a surefire option to handle first base, the way in which the position was addressed should benefit the Padres this season, especially in the myriad ways all of the options can impact other parts of the roster. View full article

The San Diego Padres may lack the might they once had in terms of prospect depth, but that doesn’t mean they lack intrigue down on the farm. Having already explored three-quarters of the team’s top 20 prospects – as voted on by our Padres Mission staff – we turn our attention to one whose intrigue might become relevant rather soon. Check out prior entries in the rankings here: No. 6: Jagger Haynes No. 7: Humberto Cruz No. 8: Ty Harvey No. 9: Ryan Wideman No. 10: Kale Fountain Nos. 11-15 Nos. 16-20 Miguel Mendez – Pitcher (San Antonio Missions; Double-A) With so little depth and so few long-term names on the payroll on the mound for the Padres, it might seem there’s little to look forward to. Miguel Mendez might offer a shift in that mindset. Mendez was a quick riser in 2025. He began the season in A-ball, and before 2025 ended, he’d crossed into High-A and made a handful of starts at Double-A. The numbers support such a rapid ascent through the system, too. He made just three starts and threw 11 innings with Lake Elsinore. Therein, he allowed five runs on 11 hits but also struck out 18 hitters. That penchant for swings-and-misses earned him a dozen starts at the next level in Fort Wayne. He built on his early success in posting a 1.32 ERA, a 28.6 percent strikeout rate (70 total), and a 9.8 percent walk rate in 61 1/3 innings. That earned him another call-up. He wrapped 2025 with San Antonio, though the results were not quite as good. His ERA sat over eight in 22.1 innings (5.91 FIP) and a homer-to-flyball ratio up near 17 percent. All told, Mendez pitched 95 innings (22 starts), posted a 3.22 ERA, and struck out 29.4 percent of the batters he faced. One imagines that his clunky stint in San Antonio will have him ticketed for Double-A again to start the year, but one also doesn’t have to stretch to see the potential for a cup of coffee down the road if his trajectory stays on course. What To Like: Mendez doesn’t make this complicated. His stuff is very good. He brings a quality fastball with plenty of movement that he mixes with a slider and a less-used changeup. Baseball America’s scouting report noted the following: "Mendez attacks hitters out of a slightly lowered three-quarters slot with no shortage of arm speed and features a fastball, slider and a changeup. Mendez’s heater sits in the mid-to-upper-90s with both run and ride through the zone. It jumps out of his hand and plays especially well in the top half of the strike zone, which is also where it generates the vast majority of its swings and misses. Mendez’s tight mid-to-upper-80s slider regularly generates empty swings. It flashes plus with sharp two-plane tilt, though against right-handed hitters it will sometimes have more length than depth. Mendez used his upper-80s-to-low-90s changeup just 8% of the time, but its results were encouraging. It garnered a 37% miss rate while flashing effective tumble and fade." Fastball-slider is a devastating combination on its own, especially with the upside of each pitch. If he can harness the changeup to the point where it becomes a viable third pitch, then you’re talking about him in the big-league mix in fairly short order. The most important thing for Mendez thus far, though, has been the growth. In his first stint in affiliated ball back in 2022, he walked hitters at a rate up near 29 percent and struck them out at only half that clip. That number remained high in Low-A in both 2023 and 2024, with walk rates reading 13.3 and 14.9, respectively. That it came down so significantly across the various levels in 2025 is certainly encouraging. Though after that brief trip to San Antonio, it’s the one area where continued improvement will need to be demonstrated. What To Work On: The aforementioned command is, obviously, objective No. 1 for Mendez moving forward. There’s more evidence of him struggling with it than him having it to this point in his professional career. If we’re to assume that this is an aberration wrought by a small sample at a new level, then it’s not overly concerning. Beyond the obvious, Mendez needs to get that changeup into the game at a higher rate. It’s extraordinarily difficult to stick as a starter at the major-league level without a third pitch. That Mendez only threw it eight percent of the time last year – even amid the success he was experiencing – speaks to the lack of comfort he has with that offering. If he’s able to grasp command of the other two pitches more fully, then 2026 will present him with an opportunity to get that pitch to be a factor in the broader arsenal. What’s Next: Double-A seems like the most likely starting point for Mendez this year. If the command demonstrated last year returns, though, he could be on his way to El Paso before long once the new year begins. Beyond that, there are a couple of different routes the Padres could take with him. They could give him a full year of seasoning to harness command and develop the change. That could put him in decent position to grab a rotation spot in camp ahead of the 2027 season (assuming such adjustments are fully realized). There will be opportunities for rotation spots in the same way we’re seeing them this year. The other possibility is that we end up seeing Mendez pitching in San Diego before year’s end, albeit as a reliever. A two-pitch pitcher is much more viable in relief. Even with the depth the Padres have in the bullpen, there might be nothing stopping them from wanting to see his upside as a one- or two-inning reliever as he gets adapted to the big-league level. Either way, there’s an intensely bright future here that should be featured as part of the depth chart for the top club in some form or fashion before year’s end. View full article

When the San Diego Padres square off against Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers later this month, it won’t be one of Fernando Tatis Jr. or Luis Arráez doing so atop the lineup. The two combined for 161 games out of that spot in the order in 2025. Instead, Craig Stammen appears poised to take a different approach. Prior to the start of the World Baseball Classic, Xander Bogaerts assumed that role for the majority of his exhibition appearances. In his stead, it’s been Jake Cronenworth holding down the No. 1 spot in the order. Given how the rest of the lineup appears destined to be structured, it seems as if it’ll be one of those two working out of the top spot in the Padres’ order to start 2026. Which one, though, remains something of a mystery as we head into the second half of the spring slate. When one considers the options for lineup configuration in the upcoming season, there are a few possibilities we can eliminate. Arráez, obviously, will not be around given his contract in San Francisco. Tatis is set to move to the third or fourth spot given the upside he presents in run production. He’ll likely work back-to-back with Manny Machado on some level. Jackson Merrill should fit into somewhere in between second and fifth in the order, as well, with anyone else anticipated as a regular working farther down the lineup. Which means that the Bogaerts-Cronenworth contingent that has gotten so much work there this spring isn’t any kind of mirage. Bogaerts could very well be the favorite given his volume of appearances prior to departing for the WBC. In his absence, Cronenworth has received plenty of work. There might not be a “right” answer for which of the two could, ultimately, land the gig. Instead, the correct choice may boil down to which skill set Stammen prefers in that role. Between the two, Bogaerts represents the more contact-oriented bat to put atop the lineup. His 3.75 pitches per plate appearance checked in below league average (3.88), which resulted in a walk rate that finished in just the 54th percentile (8.7 percent). While that number sits around league average, Bogaerts is able to use a keen eye to drive his contact rather than work a walk. His chase rate (23.6 percent) ended the year a shade below the 80th percentile and resulted in an above-average strikeout rate (17.0 percent). Bogaerts is able to use those factors to generate consistent contact, the rate of which has ended at or above 80 percent in each of the last three seasons. There’s also a bit of actual experience in that top spot to consider. While not a massive sample, Bogaerts does have 365 plate appearances to his name as a leadoff hitter. In such a role, he’s slashed .283/.351/.397, with a 14.5 percent strikeout rate against a 9.0 percent walk rate. You’re not relying on power in that spot anyway, but the combination of approach and contact could make him a worthwhile option. That’s if Stammen can stomach the streakiness which the bat of Xander Bogaerts bore in 2025. Cronenworth represents a vastly different player in that role than Bogaerts would. While the latter relies on his approach to create contact and work his way on base through that method, much of Cronenworth’s value is wrapped up in the walk itself. Not only did Cronenworth’s 4.22 pitches per plate appearance rank seventh among all qualified hitters last season, his 13.4 percent walk rate landed in the 94th percentile. With that patience, he was able to post a .367 on-base percentage that eclipsed the previous season’s mark by more than 40 points while also serving as the top rate of his career. A strikeout rate that crossed the 20 percent threshold last year might indicate an overreliance on patience, but it’s difficult to question the benefit in yielding such a consistent on-base presence. If there’s another element to consider here, it’s in the baserunning. At no point in his career has Bogaerts fallen below the average threshold in FanGraphs’ BsR baserunning metric; he was at 2.6 and 1.7 in each of the last two seasons, respectively. For his money, Cronenworth was at just 0.1 in 2024 and -0.6 in 2025. So, while Cronenworth may have the sprint speed advantage – 28.1 feet per second to Bogaerts’ closer-to-league-average 27.6 – Bogaerts is better at applying it to the basepaths. Ultimately, though, there isn’t a whole lot separating the two. The offensive skill sets present different profiles while the baserunning difference is fairly marginal between the two. If Bogaerts was an upper-tier contact hitter with a runaway advantage in the quality of his baserunning, then his sample in that spot this spring would just about indicate the whole competition as being over. But Cronenworth’s ability to draw walks and provide competence on the bases doesn’t rule him out entirely, either. It’s going to come down to what Craig Stammen wants out of that spot. If he wants contact and baserunning acumen, it’s probably going to Xander Bogaerts. If it’s the steadiest of eyes to work an early count and additional quickness on the bases, then perhaps Jake Cronenworth gets some run. Either way, there’s a suitable player here. It’s just a matter of what Stammen wants at this point. View full article

For the second time since signing with the San Diego Padres, utility man Sung Mun Song is set to miss some time with an oblique injury. He was lifted from Thursday’s game after aggravating the injury that he’d originally sustained back in January. As Song continues to sit, it opens up a couple of questions around his status for Opening Day and what it could mean for the bench picture at large. Song is projected to log heavy time all over the field for the Padres. A second and third baseman by trade, the Padres plan to move Song all over the field. He’ll get some time at the hot corner when Manny Machado serves as the designated hitter or flip over to the keystone when Jake Cronenworth needs a day or is shifting over to first base. The team is also exploring getting him some reps on the outfield grass, leaving a chance that he could play virtually every day for the Padres depending on off days and injuries (for what it’s worth, FanGraphs projects him to log time at five different positions in 2026). The good news is that the injury itself doesn’t appear serious. While oblique injuries can linger, Opening Day is not yet in question, and Craig Stammen made an assertion that it’s less worrisome that it came as a result of work more broadly – with his removal on Thursday falling under “precautionary” – than having occurred on a specific swing. That speaks more to a soreness than an acute injury, which should help the team to navigate this over the next couple of weeks. There’s enough time before March 26 that Song could very well be back in action with additional reps before the regular season begins. Nevertheless, it’s still important to consider what impact an injury to Song that lands him on the injured list to start the year could bear on a somewhat crowded bench picture over these next couple of weeks. The wide assumption to this point is that the Friars’ bench was going to be comprised of Song, Luis Campusano as the No. 2 catcher, and whichever of Gavin Sheets, Nick Castellanos, or Miguel Andujar were not split starting between a corner outfield spot, first base, or designated hitter on a particular day. Which means that the Padres had, essentially, one spot with which to work. That could shift a bit if Song was to become IL-bound to start the year. With only one spot remaining, the Padres would have to make a choice between a likely group of Bryce Johnson, Mason McCoy, Will Wagner, Ty France, and Jose Miranda. The former three are each on the 40-man roster. Johnson, however, is out of options while McCoy & Wagner each still have multiple to their name. Which means that the decision, if we’re sticking to this group of five, could come down to Johnson, France, and Miranda. Each brings something just a little bit different while offering a strong showing at the plate thus far in the spring exhibition season. As of publishing, Johnson is hitting .320 with a .346 on-base percentage and a homer to his credit in spring training. As an outfielder on a team that lacks a clear fourth option on the grass, he might’ve been the favorite. At the same time, each of Miranda (.370/.452/.630) and France (.375/.444/.500) are off to torrid starts and have a bit of versatility in their respective toolboxes. If the Padres were comfortable with Sheets, Castellanos, or Andujar in an outfield corner for a spell while Ramón Laureano slides over to center when Jackson Merrill needs a day, then it’s possible that one of those bats could’ve earned a spot. A Song absence might allow them to keep the outfield steady with Johnson and retain one of the two non-roster invitees in Miranda and France. Or they could keep Miranda and France because of their bats and designated the out-of-options Johnson for assignment. Either way, they’d be afforded that flexibility in the wake of an extended absence for Song. Ultimately, though, it’s not any kind of a given that the Padres would find themselves in such a scenario. Song’s oblique might be holding him out now, but we have no reason to think (at this point, at least) that it’ll hamper his chances of an Opening Day appearance. The roster squeeze will remain as it is, but the Padres do at least have contingencies should a longer-term absence manifest for their KBO convert. View full article

When the San Diego Padres signed Jose Miranda to a minor-league deal in December, the level of intrigue in response was tepid at best. A former top prospect of a certain pedigree with two separate years of success at the top level as a change-of-scenery candidate rung as similar to Gavin Sheets. But could the Padres capture lightning in a bottle twice after Sheets established himself as a key bat following multiple down years with the Chicago White Sox? If Miranda’s early returns in spring training are any indication, they just might. While the story of Sheets didn’t quite reach the valleys on the performance front as that of Miranda, the context is somewhat similar. After two steady years of above-average play that bookended a brutal 2023, Miranda was woeful in 2025. He struck out over 36 percent of the time, didn’t walk once, and saw his power dissipate entirely across 36 plate appearances with a Minnesota Twins team that traded away as much of their roster as they could at the trade deadline. His Triple-A output wasn’t much better, as a .214 batting average on balls in play pinned him down to a wRC+ of 49 in 371 plate appearances with the St. Paul Saints. So, even for a team mired in a rebuild like the Twins, they didn’t feel he was worth giving another shot at either infield corner ahead of 2026. Miranda caught on with San Diego on that non-guaranteed pact and has immediately produced during the exhibition season. As of this writing, he’s stepped to the plate 19 times, turned in a .412/.474/.765 line with a 15.8 percent strikeout rate against a 10.5 percent walk rate. He’s slugged a homer and a trio of doubles along the way. It’s a small sample, but gaudy numbers are gaudy numbers, especially this time of year. The “issue” for the Padres is if Miranda continues this pace. With an already-existent glut of profiles that read as quite similar to Miranda, could they make room for him on the Opening Day roster even if they wanted to? Miranda offers a bat at first base, third base, and designated hitter for the Padres. As of right now, the only of those three spots with a guaranteed body entrenched is third base featuring Manny Machado. As far as guaranteed contracts on the roster, the Padres figure to rotate Sheets, Nick Castellanos, and Miguel Andujar into those other two spots regularly. The latter two can fill in on the outfield grass occasionally, but with Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Ramón Laureano occupying the three spots, opportunities there may be sparse. However, given that at least two of those three names will have to be in the lineup on a given day, the Sheets-Castellanos-Andujar contingent will, technically, only count for one bench spot. However, even one bench spot counts for a lot given how the rest of the reserves stand to shake out. Sung Mun Song will occupy a key role as a utility player, but without a clear path to a starting gig, someone’s on the bench in his stead as he moves around the diamond. Beyond Song, Luis Campusano has the inside track as the No. 2 gig behind the plate, and Bryce Johnson is the favorite as the fourth outfielder. That’s a very murky picture for someone like Miranda, good as his spring has been thus far, to actually crack the roster barring an injury. Additionally, it’s difficult to see the Padres cutting someone from that mix in order to accommodate him. Let’s deal in hypotheticals for a moment, though. An injury could put Miranda on the roster on its own. To a corner outfielder, you’ve got Andujar, Castellanos, and Sheets in tow capable of handling such a role over a short stint. In center, you’re looking at Laureano or Bryce Johnson, with Song sliding into regular duty wherever infield coverage may be needed. Either way, a lane would open up for Miranda in that case. Obviously, that’s not the ideal scenario, of course, so let’s talk about a pathway to the roster that doesn’t involve someone’s trip to the injured list. The Padres need offensive upside from their bench. They’re not a team that is necessarily prioritizing defense. Johnson offers the least offensive upside of anyone currently in the group. He’s also out of options. Would the team part ways by way of a DFA for their lone three-position-capable outfielder if it meant further stocking up the bench with bats? In that case, you get Miranda on the roster with Laureano filling in in center field on occasion. Should the Padres want Miranda on the roster to the point of executing that type of move, though? That all depends on how the remainder of spring shakes out. If he keeps going this way, you’re not just talking about him on the roster, but supplanting either of Andujar or Castellanos as a right-handed hitter getting regular work on a corner or as the designated hitter. Then again, that develops a concern regarding the defensive limitations of that veteran-laden group. Should he make the roster in someone like Johnson’s stead, you’d be looking at Miranda on either infield corner, Andujar at any of the four corners, and Sheets and Castellanos each at first and handling one side of the outfield apiece (the former in left and the latter in right). That leaves only Song up the middle, unless the Padres trust Jake Cronenworth to slide over to shortstop from the keystone on occasion. In those terms, it doesn’t seem as dire. Of course, Miranda has to sustain his output before this is a conversation the team is willing to have. As muddled as it might make things if he does, it does appear that there are at least a couple of paths toward feasibly getting him on the Opening Day roster. Ultimately, it’d make for a good problem to have for the Padres in 2026. View full article

With the spring exhibition slate underway, new San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen has already been tinkering with potential lineup options for the 2026 regular season. While there are a couple of individual spots to be settled from a personnel standpoint, the biggest mystery is how the batting order itself could be structured. It’s a puzzle that is made more complicated by a relatively enigmatic presence in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis Jr. had a very good 2025 season. He turned in a .268/.368/.446 line with an 18.7 K% and 12.9 BB% that each represented a career mark. At 135, his wRC+ was indicative of a player well above average offensively, with 32 steals and the defensive component of his game pushing him up to a 6.1 fWAR mark that represented his best since he posted a 6.8 figure back in 2021. It’s the type of comprehensive performance that merits MVP consideration had it not been for the one element of his game that was notably absent for much of the year: his power. A season with 25 home runs and a .178 isolated power number isn’t necessarily something to frown upon. But we know where Tatis Jr. has set the bar in years past (if we’re optimistically assuming the performance-enhancing drug usage that resulted in a suspension was a one-off). He also started hot in the power game in 2025, posting a .257 ISO in April. That latter figure dropped significantly in May (.184), further in June (.102), and stayed low until he drove it back up with a .256 ISO in September. There are certainly mechanical reasons for last season’s power dip. On one hand, it looked like he was caught in between some changes to his footwork. Here is the 2024 season, when the ISO was up to .216: And here’s 2025: The changes aren’t wildly obvious to the eye, especially given that his positioning in the box and the intercept point all remained relatively similar. However, the distance between his feet and the stance, which went from 29 degrees open in 2024 to 38 degrees in 2025, could impact timing. While even less revealing, it’s possible that we can glean some further information from Tatis Jr’s actual swing, too. Here it is in 2024: Note the above average bat speed and the quality attack angle. Especially in comparison with 2025: Tatis Jr’s bat came through the zone just a touch slower, and the attack angle fell to eight degrees. Within all of this, you’re also talking about a player who experienced a severe drop in his barrel rate. In 2024, Tatis Jr. posted a 14.5 percent barrel rate, which ranked in the 92nd percentile. Last year’s iteration saw that percentage fall to 10.9 and 66th. Slower, shallower swing, finding the barrel at a lower frequency? It’s no wonder that the ball was on the ground 48.9 percent of the time. It doesn’t help, either, when those angles are all over the place on a month-to-month basis, as Tatis Jr. had no shortage of variance in attack angle and direction depending on the time of year. For what it’s worth, Tatis Jr. has already expressed that the mechanical things he was working through last year are behind him. If he can get his way back to generating quality contact and elevating in the way that he did in years past, then one imagines a simple transition back toward his power numbers of old. If it were that simple. Mechanics aren’t the only puzzle that Fernando Tatis Jr. will need to solve ahead of 2026, though. The approach is going to need to steer back in a direction that is more likely to beget power outcomes. Because, somewhere along the line, there was a tradeoff. In general, Tatis Jr’s swing rate declined in 2025. He carried a 51.1 Swing% in 2024 before dropping that down to 45.4 percent last season. Both ends of the spectrum were impacted, as he dropped his chase rate by roughly five percent and his zone swing rate by almost four. However, he also made less contact when chasing and, more importantly, wasn’t able to parlay the approach into more success within the strike zone. Within the zone, Tatis Jr bumped his contact rate up about one percent. At least some of that is due to the fact that he was active on offspeed pitches inside the zone, which was his highest whiff source among the three pitch groups. With that approach, he swung at four percent fewer fastballs inside the strike zone (69.3 percent). While this development unfolded, his barrel rate on fastballs fell more than five percent (10.0). It seems as if Tatis Jr was attempting to become more patient in a broad sense, but perhaps was not consciously devoted to the actual pitch types. Instead, the zone was the focus, which inhibited his ability to be as active on the type of pitch responsible for his power outcomes in the years prior. The thing that’s ironic about the number of factors that led to Tatis Jr.’s 2025 production is that it’s still good production. This is an elite baseball player with an elite skill set. That means that even caught in between mechanical or approach adjustments, production is still there. In his case, though, we’re looking for more of it on the power side. It’s clear that Tatis Jr himself was working through some stuff at the plate last year. If he is genuinely clear of that, then the offseason reset could compound with what was already there to manifest in a fascinatingly strong 2026 campaign. The Padres and their overall lack of collective power sure would like that. View full article

The range of outcomes that we could see from the 2026 San Diego Padres is vast. It’s a flawed roster, but one that isn’t short on upside. Despite the attention that the pitching staff has gotten throughout the offseason, it’s the offensive side of things that could have the most significant bearing on their fortunes in the upcoming year. The stars are still in place in Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill. The secondary pieces are, too, in Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, et al. Some new faces join the fray – most notably Sung Mun Song, Miguel Andujar, and Nick Castellanos – but it’s the holdover that will have the most to say about where this team can go this season. As such, let’s talk about what the team needs out of each hitter in order to maximize the offensive success that felt so fleeting a year ago. Freddy Fermin: Get on Base Freddy Fermin is not in San Diego to hit. He’s in San Diego as a competent, controllable catcher. Nevertheless, he’s going to have to find ways to stretch this lineup, and reaching base is the best way that he can do that. Despite limited upside, Fermin does have a keen awareness of the strike zone. What he doesn’t do, though, is walk. Despite quality strikeout numbers in the last two seasons – 17.9 and 18.7 percent, respectively – he’s more prone to swinging than walking, where he did so at a rate of just 5.5 percent in 2025. If he can start to work that patience to his advantage at a higher rate, it would be a boon for the top of the order given his likely presence toward the bottom of it. More on base for a catcher that has been close to an average baserunner in his career would beget more run production opportunities for the top bats when the lineup flips. Gavin Sheets: Consistency in Approach The 2025 iteration of Gavin Sheets lent plenty of validation to change-of-scenery as a concept. While the vibe shift itself likely played a role, Sheets was able to ascend on his own courtesy of chase and whiff rates that improved steadily as the season wore on. In August, Sheets posted by his highest in-zone swing rate (64.5 percent) and his lowest rate of chase-and-miss (22.2 percent) of any individual month. The result? Sheets slashed .412/.464/.745 with a 237 wRC+ in 56 plate appearances. It was a smaller sample due to injury (while also being entirely unsustainable), but there’s a foundation laid that speaks to what Sheets can do if he has the discipline reined in. If he wants to hold off Andujar and Castellanos for playing time, he’ll have to demonstrate some consistency in that regard. Jake Cronenworth: Find the Barrel As indicated by his 13.4 percent walk rate (94th percentile), Cronenworth is perhaps the most patient hitter the Padres have to offer. What he couldn’t do, however, was parlay that patience into positive outcomes when he actually swung the bat. His 6.2 percent barrel rate didn’t just live in the 25th percentile, but represented a rather notable drop from 2024, when he found it at a 7.8 percent clip. He swung the bat faster in 2025 than either of the previous years, getting him to roughly average after a pair of seasons on the slow end of the swing speed leaderboard. If he can utilize the approach toward creating more quality contact, the compounding of a keen eye and improved bat speed could have him trending back toward the power upside we saw from him early in his career. Xander Bogaerts: Be Aggressive In the first two months of 2025, there was plenty of talk of Bogaerts being a sunk cost and some hope that a team might be willing to take some of his contract off the Padres’ books. That shifted in June and July as Bogaerts posted wRC+ figures of 123 and 125, respectively, and brought his slugging percentage well back over the .400 threshold. The big change was in his aggression. While he walked at an abnormally high rate (based on his career number) in the first two months, the free passes dipped and the swing rate went up. We saw a glimpse of the same in an injury-shortened September (115 wRC+, .500 SLG), albeit in just 18 plate appearances. Bogaerts has the contact chops and an above-average swing speed that rose two percent from the previous season (72.2 MPH). Similar to Cronenworth – even if not as extreme – he can sacrifice a bit on the walk end if it means more impact when he swings the bat. Manny Machado: Find the Power Faster Manny Machado is one of the two or three most important hitters in the San Diego lineup. The last two seasons, however, it has taken him a while to get going. In 2024, he went three consecutive months with a sub-.200 ISO before exploding to .250, .283, and .237 in the last three months of the year. Last season, he started much the same before crossing the .200 threshold in June on his way to a .283 ISO in July. The difference is that in 2024, he was coming off an offseason surgery that likely contributed to his slow start. That same scenario didn’t exist last year. If the Padres want to continue their run of contention, though, the power is going to have to manifest out of Machado’s bat much earlier, especially in order to compensate for some of those stretches where it wanes as he ages. Ramón Laureano: Get Back to Baltimore Ways When the Padres acquired Laureano ahead of the trade deadline, the hope was that he’d continue the bounce back he’d demonstrated all year with the Orioles. Prior to the trade, he’d cut down the strikeout rate to a career best and had driven up the contact metrics above where they’d been in any year prior. With the Padres, though, things started to slide before a finger injury ended his season early. The swing rate rose, the whiff rate jumped five percent between August and September, and a rise in groundball contact led to his lowest BABIP outside of an abysmal April (.278). We know the skill set exists given the contact metrics, but the approach will have to resemble something closer to Baltimore if he’s going to serve as a regular contributor in 2026. Jackson Merrill: Get the Slug Back Merrill is somewhat unique on this list, as his top priority is to merely stay healthy. A hamstring strain, concussion, and ankle sprain limited him greatly over the course of 2025. His performance climbing back toward his rookie form from 2024 might just be a natural byproduct of being clear of those woes. Ultimately, though, the Padres need Merrill to regain some of his form on the power side above all. He came out hot in April (.297 ISO before the hamstring injury), but was unable to maintain that in the face of his other health issues as the year progressed. His ISO dropped and remained low in the subsequent months, going .143, .100, and .109, respectively, in the three months following his April tear. It did start to rebound in August, though, climbing to .214 before spiking to a gaudy .352 ISO in September. There’s some nuance in the approach that could yield the power outcomes, but the stroke is clearly there. As long as he’s healthy, he should be a dynamic presence in a lineup that needs all the power it can find. Fernando Tatis Jr.: Balance Approach & Power Tatis’ trajectory merits its own discussion in the coming weeks. But even as one of the most valuable players in the sport (6.1 fWAR in 2025), he hasn’t gotten back to the superstar level we saw prior to his various injuries and suspension quite yet. That’s largely due to the decline in power. Tatis’ .178 ISO in 2026 was a career low. At the same time, his strikeout and walk numbers were the best of his career. There’s a clear tradeoff happening in hopes of making more contact. While that may have its benefits, Tatis is a catalyst to this lineup that already suffers a bit in the power department. He may have to find a blend of the two to maximize his value to this group. View full article

There was perhaps no need that was more evident, for any team in Major League Baseball, than starting pitching was this winter for the San Diego Padres. They lost Dylan Cease early in free agency and appeared poised to do the same with Michael King. Yu Darvish was quickly declared out for the entirety of 2026, if he doesn’t call it a career it a career altogether. Nestor Cortes was a virtual non-factor upon his acquisition at last year’s trade deadline and never really merited discussion of a return. In short, the situation was dire for the Padres’ 2026 rotation. As the offseason progressed, however, they started to shift the narrative, at least a bit. King was, surprisingly, re-signed to what could amount to a one-year deal (though reads three on paper). Joe Musgrove is going to be close to a full-go for the regular season from the jump as he works back from Tommy John surgery. Adding those two to Nick Pivetta provided at least some stability to the top of the group. Questions remained, however. Sure, Randy Vásquez finished the year strong. But his profile is still flawed given some command woes against a lack of upside in his stuff. Even if he is able to build on that finish, the absence of anything resembling certainty helps to make this the murkiest positional group on the roster. With the team more recently opting for a pure volume approach in addressing it, though, they might have an opportunity to capitalize on that lack of clarity in seeking a more creative solution: the six-man rotation. Last week, the team signed Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez to one-year deals. They join in-house holdovers JP Sears, Kyle Hart, and Matt Waldron and non-roster invitees Triston McKenzie, Marco Gonzales, Sean Boyle, and Walker Buehler to create a competition that presents plenty of intrigue, even if it’s lacking in upside. If you’re keeping count, that’s 13 names for five spots. Pared down based on the more certain aspects, that’s 10 names for two spots. It’s not a terribly favorable probability for those that are on a deal of the minor-league variety or lacking in upside altogether. For example, it’s much more likely that we see a name like Hart in the bullpen or El Paso on the guaranteed contract side, with Boyle serving a similar role off the 40-man roster. However things shake out, though, it’s an opportunity to the Padres to explore the possibility of the six-man setup. The concept of a six-man rotation is floated throughout the league with decent regularity, but few teams actually adopt it. Pitchers being as routine oriented as they are stifles at least some of its usage, while another share of the responsibility goes to simply not having six options with which to work in the context of some organizations. In the Padres’ case, though, there’s real logic in exploring the possibility. From the standpoint of the certain aspects of the rotation, King is coming off a season in which he made only 15 starts. Musgrove hasn’t thrown a big-league inning since 2024. Pursuing such an avenue as a six-man rotation allows each of the two to settle back into regular work without putting too much stress on either arm early in the season. That’s the primary reason the team would even consider it. But it may not be the only one. As an added benefit, it also provides the Padres with runway beyond the spring to sort through some of the volume they’ve accrued. If they like what they see from the likes of Triston McKenzie or Walker Buehler – two pitchers that have performed at a high level in the past – they could structure the rotation in such a way that allows them sufficient time to evaluate whether some of the upside still persists within either pitcher. With Griffin Canning likely needing some time to work his way back from the Achilles injury, too, they get additional coverage from an innings standpoint. FanGraphs’ prognostication indicates that, in some way, the Padres will heavily feature at least six starters in 2026. Their list includes Canning grabbing 11 percent of the available starts, which is the lowest among the six starters playing on a guaranteed contract. That amounts to roughly 18 starts. While the depth charts are predictive and don’t necessarily always factor in context, this at least suggests that the thought isn’t entirely unreasonable. The Padres represent as good a case as any for the six-man rotation. The situation is always different when these conversations manifest around different organizations. But considering their lack of certainty at the back end of the rotation and their group of pitchers recovering from injury, the merits of the approach are at least visible to the naked eye. View full article