Randy Holt

Things are beginning to spiral out of control for the San Diego Padres. They lost eight in a row over the past week, including score lines of the 15-3, 23-3, and 12-7 variety, the latter of which the team led 6-0. This is a team at an inflection point for 2026 and beyond. The pitching is a patchwork staff, particularly in the rotation. Not only are they staving off another injury in the form of Randy Vásquez's ankle, but they're facing continued struggles from their volume approach to building out the staff. The offense has been among the league's worst up until recently. Even if the team's recent surge at the plate is sustained, the two phases haven't been on the same wavelength at any point this season. With the division long gone and each of the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs clamping down on wild card spots, the Padres are quickly finding themselves at the back end of the slog of teams vying for one final playoff spot. It's very possible that A.J. Preller doesn't have it in him to sell. Considering the team's current state at the top level and in the farm system, though, he may be left with no choice by the time we reach the trade deadline early this month. With a handful of one-year deals and some players facing option decisions — to say nothing of the team's perilous payroll standing and the absence of clarity over both the approach by new ownership and future of the league's salary structure — it's at least possible that this team could look quite a bit different roughly a month from now. But first, some caveats. It's unlikely we'd see names like Germán Márquez or Griffin Canning included in such discussion as their performance may not even guarantee them a spot on the Padres' depleted staff. The Friars are a team as starved for pitching as any, so their performance indicates they're more likely to get hit with a DFA and sign a minor-league deal elsewhere given their minimal value. On the other end of the spectrum, Jackson Merrill isn't a name we'd find in rumors. Even in the midst of a disappointing year, he's a building block on an entirely reasonable long-term deal. If the team tore it down entirely, he'd be the last to go. Manny Machado can also be ruled out given his contract and career-worst performance. We can throw Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta out, too. The former hasn't pitched since 2024, and the latter hasn't appeared since April 12. It's a variety of contexts, but a handful of names not even worth mentioning here. Let's discuss those who could otherwise be facing an uncertain future in San Diego should things continue at their current pace. Padres Players That Will Definitely Be Traded Adrian Morejon, RP Team Control: Through 2026 2026 Stats: 40 G, 3.45 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 22.8 K-BB%, 1.4 fWAR Of the players the team could legitimately seek to trade ahead of the deadline, Morejon has perhaps as much value as any. He's among the game's most elite high-leverage relievers, with a 99th percentile fastball velocity and chase & whiff rates that each rest in the 96th. On another team, you'd be talking about him as a closer. The hitch here is that he's a free agent at year's end, which could limit his value slightly as a two-month rental against what the team could have got had they pursued a trade last winter. Nevertheless, you'd be hard-pressed to find a contender that wouldn't give up at least one legitimate player in their system to acquire the lefty's services. Wandy Peralta, RP Team Control: Through 2027 2026 Stats: 38 G, 2.38 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 6.5 K-BB%, 0.2 fWAR Peralta is an interesting case, especially against the more impactful Morejon. Rather than providing a team with a leverage arm, he'd be a sensible addition for the middle innings at a reasonable price. As clubs try to keep their top relievers fresh, there's something enticing about a player like Peralta, who has been a perfectly solid reliever without the bells & whistles of a Morejon or a Mason Miller. Additionally, he comes with a player option for 2027 at a reasonable $4.13 million price point. There's something to be said for stability, which he can offer across the middle innings beyond August & September of 2026. The return wouldn't be mind-blowing, but it's possible that the team could find an interesting prospect or two given Peralta's recent success. Possibly Traded Michael King, SP Team Control: Through 2028 2026 Stats: 18 G, 3.52 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 11.2 K-BB%, 1.5 fWAR The team control in the descriptor above isn't quite as simple as it appears, as King actually has player options for each of 2027 and 2028. However, given his $25 million salary, it's not hard to see him opting in. Whether that is enticing for a team in need of starting pitching, though, is another matter given his uneven performance thus far in 2026. At his best, King is a No. 2 or a No. 3 on a quality staff. Unfortunately for him, the Padres have needed production that matches that of an ace. Instead, he's fallen much more toward average with a strikeout rate that sits a far cry from where it was two years ago. Teams throughout the major-league landscape are certainly starved for stability in their rotation, but the question of the option could limit his market one way or the other. Jake Cronenworth, IF Team Control: Through 2030 2026 Stats: 132 PA, .256 wOBA, 62 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR Cronenworth's contract running through 2030 isn't unique among the Padres' collection of long-term position players, but he comes at a much more reasonable annual value ($11.43 million). While not the hitter he was a few years ago, Cronenworth's approach is among the game's best, and he's a league-average baserunner. He can also hold down the right side of the infield competently — handling first and second base regularly over the past handful of seasons — with the ability to handle shortstop in a pinch. Of course, the caveat here is the fact that Cronenworth has played very little baseball this year after spending the bulk of 2026 on the concussion IL. Now that he's back, if he can get right quickly, there's sure to be interest; we've heard in the last year or two that contenders were reaching out. His contract isn't unreasonable, so there's a very real possibility a team comes calling for a supplemental bat capable of boosting a team's on-base skills and moving around the field some. Walker Buehler, SP Team Control: Through 2026 2026 Stats: 17 G, 4.61 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 13.1 K-BB%, 1.2 fWAR Buehler gives the vibe of that player added to a deal or acquired at the last minute of the trade deadline. While nowhere close to the neighborhood of the pitcher he used to be — and a brutal start at Wrigley Field last week notwithstanding — Buehler has been an entirely adequate starting pitcher for the Padres in 2026. He wouldn't be a flashy addition, but as a steady option with tons of playoff experience, the Padres could find some takers here. Xander Bogaerts, SS Team Control: Through 2033 2026 Stats: 329 PA, .299 wOBA, 91 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR Of the Padres position players on long-term deals, Bogaerts represents a fascinating case. He doesn't possess the offensive upside of Fernando Tatis Jr. or Manny Machado at their best, nor does he come at the reasonable salary of someone like Cronenworth. On paper, his contract is decidedly the worst of the bunch. What he does add, though, is a solid contact bat with a rising walk rate, quality baserunning skills, and defense that remains above average. With all that said, it's unrealistic to think that the Padres would find an upper-tier return here considering the financial element. We also don't know what teams would actually be willing to take on his contract (let alone if such teams even exist). Instead, the motive would be to get off the contrast itself. Even if it requires them to eat some of the money, they should jump at the opportunity to at least clear some of it off their fragile books. It's hard to imagine that a Padres team in sell-mode wouldn't at least make an attempt to offload Bogaerts. Yuki Matsui, RP Team Control: Through 2028 2026 Stats: 21 G, 2.08 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 14.5 K-BB%, 0.2 fWAR Matsui is a bit different than his middle innings counterpart Wandy Peralta, in that he can opt out after 2026 and has a player option for 2028 while coming in at a slightly higher $5.60 million salary. Nevertheless, he offers the same type of skill set that Peralta does. He's a middle-inning reliever doing some of his best work courtesy this season of an improved strikeout rate and fewer home runs allowed. The question is whether the potential for two additional years of team control for a middle reliever at a higher salary is a benefit or a detriment to his case. Unlikely To Be Traded Fernando Tatis Jr., RF/2B Team Control: Through 2034 2026 Stats: 377 PA, .318 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR Fernando Tatis Jr. is coming off one of the worst power outages of his career, running up until the end of May without a home run on the books. He found some of it again in June, though, with another four homers and an increase in extra-base hits overall. Even if the impact hasn't been there, he's been quite good at the plate while providing upper-tier defense at two positions, with Cronenworth's concussion necessitating some time at second base for the team's superstar. We've heard whispers over the last year that the Padres and their financial situation could seek to move Tatis for the right return. Given some of his offensive shortcomings, even with his glaring upside, it's hard to imagine the Padres are going to find the right return at this moment. It also remains to be seen if the team would be motivated to move him at all considering his upside and status as the face of the organization. Nevertheless, if there's some envisioning of a full-scale rebuild of which we are unaware, this suddenly becomes more possible. Mason Miller, RP Team Control: Through 2029 2026 Stats: 33 G, 0.78 ERA, 0.43 FIP, 40.2 K-BB%, 2.2 fWAR There isn't a player on the Padres that possesses more value in a trade than that of Mason Miller. He's been the game's best reliever in 2026, and it isn't particularly close. The team gave up their No. 1 prospect in Leo De Vries to bring him from the Athletics last year, no doubt due at least in part to the team control he also carries for the next three seasons after 2026. For all of those reasons, it's difficult to see the Padres parting with him. They're also all reasons to move him if Preller can coax a team into matching the package he had to surrender to acquire him in the first place. At the end of the day, it just feels unlikely. His arm will likely remain too valuable to the Padres to part with. If not for the 2026 season, then for each of the next couple. Conclusion The issue with projecting who could go is that it implies the Padres are an organization with any level of predictability. Whether they'd seriously entertain moving long-term players given their absence of depth in the farm system is a mystery. Factor in incoming ownership and the uncertain future of the league's labor structure, and it's yet another layer of gray on an exercise that needs at least some bit of black-and-white to truly gauge intent. View full article

This weekend, Major League Baseball will reveal their rosters for the 2026 All-Star Game. Even through their uneven play through the first three months of the season, the San Diego Padres stand to have a couple of possible representatives for the Midsummer Classic in Philadelphia later this month. However, the nature of such variance in play is that the candidates look quite a bit different. In the case of the Padres, we can immediately rule out a couple of their notable names. Manny Machado will not be attending an eighth All-Star Game here in 2026. Despite an uptick in his power and defensive contributions this year — and a better overall performance over the last few weeks — he's still in the midst of one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, sitting at an 89 wRC+ and a batting average (.192) that is still tied for the worst among qualifying position players. There was some hope at the outset of the season that a healthy Jackson Merrill could reestablish himself as one of the game's young stars and reach his second All-Star game in three seasons. That hasn't come to fruition in any sense; Merrill has been unable to work himself out of a spiral in his approach and has generated very little of merit on his stat sheet. You'd be hard-pressed to find possible representation elsewhere in the remainder of the Padres' group of position players, either. That side of the ball has been comprised of replacement-level play from just about everyone not named Ty France (1.4 fWAR, 131 wRC+), but there's a long line of National League first basemen that would lay claim to a trip to Philadelphia before he would. If there's a case to be made, it could (somewhat surprisingly) come in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr. Despite the extended power outage that consumed most of his first half, he's been quite good just about everywhere else on the field, including his characteristically strong defense at both second base and in right field. The power has manifested with more regularity over the last month, too, with a .191 ISO in June. He's 16th in fWAR (1.5), ultimately, among National League outfielders. It's a case, but there's some stiff competition ahead of him that will likely hold him out. Given that, it's unlikely we'll see any Padres position player dress for the All-Star Game. Barring a number of drop-outs, there just isn't a case to be made up against their National League counterparts. The same is true of the team's rotation. If anything, the justification becomes easier. A team that ranks 24th in fWAR among their starting pitchers isn't likely to have a candidate to begin with. Even the rotation's linchpin in Michael King just endured a June where his ERA sat near 4.50 with a FIP over five. If he's not offering the type of performance to garner such recognition, one could hardly expect the remaining collection of Randy Vásquez, Walker Buehler, et al to do so. As it is, our candidates are not to be found here, either. It's possible that the real world was always going to be such where the team's most likely All-Star representatives emerged from the relief corps. The Padres' bullpen is one of the league's strongest individual phases for any team. It's there that we'll find the most assured lock the team has to offer, with their runner-up waiting in the wings. Mason Miller has been the game's best relief pitcher in 2026. He's accrued 2.2 fWAR with a 0.78 ERA, 0.42 FIP, and obscene 50.0 percent strikeout rate. He possesses what is, possibly, baseball's best individual pitch in the form of his slider. If the team could only have one representative, he'd be the one without question. One wouldn't have too difficult a time making a case for Adrian Morejon to join him, either. Morejon's 1.7 fWAR ranks second among NL relievers, with a FIP (2.05) that ranks second and a strikeout rate (29.5 percent) that ranks 13th. Among the top 30 relievers in innings pitched, his performance has been far-and-away of the highest quality in the National League. There are no surprises here. Given how Miller came out of the gate and how steady Morejon has been as his comrade in the late innings, a pair of relievers serving as the team's All-Star representatives was always going to be the most likely outcome. Sure, it's disappointing that they're the only two for which an easy case can be made, but there's at least a certain solace that exists in not getting the sympathy invite as part of the required representation for each team. That pair has earned it in the most objective sense. View full article

To their credit, the San Diego Padres were never supposed to be in the mix as long as they were. They spent the first month of the season flirting with first place in the National League West and have since remained involved as a key component of the NL Wild Card race. In the midst of budget woes that led to the halfway construction of their rotation and an inability to address their offensive depth — along with massive struggles from key elements of their lineup — that they are this relevant in the playoff picture this late in the year is something of a feat. At this particular time, though, it's looking like the game may be up in America's Finest City. Coming off a sweep of a first-place Atlanta team last week, one might have thought the vibes would be up as they hit the weekend for one of two consecutive turns against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite a win in the series opener, they went on to lose that series in rather convincing fashion. Those weekend struggles were further compounded with a trip to Wrigley Field that resulted in a sweep against a Chicago Cubs team that simply could not stop hitting home runs against the Padres' increasingly woeful pitching staff. The nature of those losses made things worse. The weekend set against the Dodgers included a 15-3 loss that followed their lone win of the series. Against the Cubs this week, Padres pitching allowed five home runs to Cub hitters on Tuesday and eight in Wednesday's 22-3 loss. They weren't cheap shots, either, as catcher Rodolfo Durán was pressed into pitching duty for the second time in five games. It's the kind of game that spins a team out entirely. Now, the Padres find themselves at an inflection point. They're two games back of one of the NL's three Wild Card spots and are attempting to stave off the Arizona Diamondbacks to retain the second-place position in the NL West. This does not, however, have the look of a team up for the challenge. If anything, they're a team at a point where faltering further could not only dictate their fortunes for the remainder of 2026 but beyond it. That's not to say the Padres are completely out of the Wild Card race or poised to sell at the trade deadline. Either one is possible, sure. Instead, the point is that the team has the look and feel of a team that was already held together in rather precarious fashion and, as a result, could be staring down a reckoning of that faulty construction. The Padres are last in the league in their collective wRC+ (89), with a team batting average (.223), on-base percentage (.299), and isolated power (.146) that all sit at or near the bottom of the league. Even with a recent ascent from Fernando Tatis Jr. and steady play from Ty France, there isn't a saving grace coming for this offense. Manny Machado has his power output up but almost nothing else to supplement it, while Jackson Merrill is stuck in an offensive spiral from which there appears no escape. The stalwarts aren't coming through, and there never was enough to compensate for that possibility elsewhere on the roster. Some teams can do so with their pitching staff. The Friars' starting staff, however, is 24th in the league in fWAR (3.8), with an ERA (4.59), FIP (4.53), and walk rate (9.6 percent) that all sit among the six or seven worst teams in the sport. Even a quality bullpen led by Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon can't make up that kind of ground. If anything, the need for volume out of the bullpen will eventually sap it of some of its value as the season progresses. It's a big ask for any leadership group, but it also remains to be seen if first-year manager Craig Stammen has the managerial chops to lead them through the impending storm. Questions persist about his handling of the pitching staff and choice of coaches for the staff (especially Steven Souza Jr. as the team's hitting coach given their offensive ineptitude). There isn't a whole lot to indicate stability on that front. As such, there are simply no solutions coming for this team in 2026, and that's a quandary that extends into the long term. The contracts on the books aren't looking any better. Their farm system is one of the league's most underwhelming, a byproduct of A.J. Preller's prior years of aggression. Unless the team's new ownership is going to lead to an injection of financing for the roster (and even that is complicated by impending labor negotiations for the league), there's a perilous outcome awaiting San Diego in the form of professional sports purgatory. This feels like a conversation we've had around the Padres before. Preller has managed to wriggle his way out of jams in the past with an exciting addition that benefits the club in the present, but he has fewer resources at his disposal to do so again. If the Padres continue their slide into the coming weeks, his ambition is rendered moot anyway. Even then, "selling" would be only modest, as there isn't likely to be much of a market for their collection of inflated contracts and below-average performers. That's where the looming threat of purgatory begins to manifest: when you have a middling roster but no obvious pathway toward short- or long-term improvement. The Padres are in a stretch where they play 17 consecutive games ahead of the All-Star break. They've already played three against the Dodgers and have another four coming against them this weekend. It's then four games against the Diamondbacks and three against the Toronto Blue Jays to close out the first half. That's the class of the league and two teams also trying to remain afloat, meaning that the schedule in this tough stretch isn't going to do the Friars any favors. Which means that by the time the break hits, we could have a pretty clear picture of where things stand with the Padres. But it's difficult to be optimistic about the shape of that picture. This team was flawed in its construction and held together in a way that was asking a lot of the roster and the coaching staff. A continued stretch of listless play could spell doom in 2026 and the state of the roster doesn't offer up much room for hope beyond it. There are two directions in which the season goes from here. One requires near-immediate improvement from the key components of the roster and any of the number of middling options in the starting rotation. The other, as a result, feels more likely... and more dire. View full article

The San Diego Padres — sweep of Atlanta last week be damned — are a team with a rotation in shambles. Aside from Michael King at its head, the remainder of the team's starting five is full up with questions ranging from concern to outright despair. Randy Vásquez has regressed mightily after a strong start. Walker Buehler has been toeing the line of being perfectly adequate but nothing beyond it. Griffin Canning and his command woes went from starter to bulk guy and then forgot the bulk in a less-than-one-inning outing last week. Lucas Giolito is on the injured list with elbow inflammation after his own issues with volume. Germán Márquez has been out since May 1, though his own impending return to the mix will add yet another wild-card element. Each of Joe Musgrove and Nick PIvetta remain out without a timeline. That's quite a bit of mess for one rotation. Considering the lack of certainty just about everywhere, it's entirely possible that JP Sears can now play a role in a much shorter term than would have been expected. The reason for such thinking stems from the singular start that Sears has made in 2026. On the heels of Giolito's IL placement, Sears became a surprise call-up for Wednesday's series finale against Atlanta. For a pitching staff with a dire need for volume, Sears provided it in the form of a 5.2-inning start in which he scattered five hits & two walks while keeping a first-place team off the scoreboard. It was an encouraging outing for Sears that bordered on shocking. He had an ERA over eight in spring training that led the team toward their more established options for rotation spots (though his ability to be optioned certainly played its role there as well). Then, with El Paso, he posted a 7.92 ERA through 14 starts. Even considering the hitter-friendly environment that the Pacific Coast League represents, there was very little reason to expect that Sears had the ability to stave off a thriving Atlanta team in the way that he did. Yet, what manifested out of Wednesday's start was something quite encouraging. Sears garnered whiffs at a 22 percent clip, utilizing his changeup as the secondary pitch while his sweeper — the pitch we saw him lean on as a No. 2 last season — took on a tertiary role that helped to increase its effectiveness. He generated a swing-and-miss with the sweeper 43 percent of the time, nearly doubling the amount induced with either his fastball or his change. It's difficult to draw too many conclusions after one start, especially for a pitcher who had experienced his share of struggles since being acquired at last season's trade deadline. However, there's also a real opportunity for Sears to latch onto a gig in relatively short order. This is a rotation that is now down Giolito in addition to two of its stalwarts in Pivetta & Musgrove. Canning has struggled to the point where his roster spot is in question, with Márquez sharing a similar track record prior to his IL stint. At this point, only King & Buehler feel like safe bets to remain in the big-league rotation, with Vásquez's June woes beginning to soften the ground on which he stands. This isn't a situation where Sears needs to be perfect in order to latch on as the No. 5 starter; being merely adequate would be a godsend, Keep in mind that the thing the Padres need most out of their starting staff is volume. Given its assembly, the team is not expecting dominant performances out of their rotation. It's about remaining afloat for five or six innings until the dominant bullpen can take charge. If the Friars feel that Sears offers them that kind of volume, then it's not even a question as to whether or not he could hold down a spot. He did it in start No. 1. The challenge now becomes doing it in start No. 2. If he can hold steady, the Padres likely would not hesitate to give him an extended run in such a role. View full article

It was just two months ago that Randy Vásquez was one of the more exciting stories of the 2026 San Diego Padres. The former depth starter with command issues parlayed a strong spring into a firm gig in the rotation to start the year, with numbers in March & April that supported his role. As the calendar prepares to flip over to July, however, we're looking at some familiar issues manifesting for Vásquez in all new ways. The old book on the right-hander was that he is a more contact-oriented pitcher who needed to harness a deep mix of pitches to find success sans big strikeout numbers. The harnessing itself proved to be an issue in 2025 in particular, as he only struck out 13.7 percent of hitters against a 9.1 percent walk rate. His offseason work, however, proved fruitful, as he showed up to spring training with an uptick in velocity and compounded that with improved command in the season's first month. His strikeout rate sat way up at 24.8 percent in March & April with an 8.0 percent walk rate. He featured a 2.94 ERA that paired with a 3.40 FIP to indicate a pitcher demonstrating marked improvement rather than getting away with something. Then, the regression monster came for him in May. In the month that followed the strong start, Vásquez featured an ERA that jumped up to 3.71. That's a survivable figure in itself, but more worrisome was the fact that the FIP leapt to 5.35 while the strikeout rate cratered at just 11.6 percent. He managed to survive by a barrel rate that dropped between the two months and a walk rate of just 5.4 percent, but concerns certainly emerged for a player with little margin for error within his skill set and track record. Those worries have been further realized here in June. Through his first 17 innings and change of the month, Vásquez has an ERA up at 7.27. His strikeout rate is back up a touch but still sits at only 14.1 percent while the walk rate has climbed back up to 9.4 percent. The peak of those concerns came last Friday when Vásquez, who was spotted a 5-0 lead in the first inning, allowed eight hits and three walks through just 3.1 innings of work. Considering the aforementioned lack of a margin for error, it's difficult to pinpoint a central issue causing Vásquez's regression over the span of two months. His command has been fine in the sense that he's largely continued to mitigate walks even as he's begun to struggle. His case may start at the concept of a pitcher with three different types of fastballs (four-seam, cutter, sinker) and two different types of breaking pitch (curve & sweeper) struggling to solidify his usage. On the fastball side, the four-seam has increased steadily, the cutter has dropped quite a bit, and the sinker has varied. As far as his breaking stuff goes, he's ditched the more standard curve in favor of the sweeper. The reasoning for such a shift over these three months is unclear, but there are some other trends present beyond (and related to) the usage itself. For one, Vásquez is getting fewer hitters to chase. The breaking pitches were the highest source of chase in April. In May, hitters began chasing them less frequently and making hard contact at a higher clip, so Vásquez began relying on the four-seam and sinker more often. The latter represented his highest source of chase that month. In June, though, hitters have started to lay off the sinker and the cutter when they're thrown outside the zone, so he's pivoted back to the sweeper while continuing to rely on the four-seamer. The results on contact have varied, but it's all a bit muddled. If anything, there's a reactionary component to Vásquez that has mixed up his usage and pinned down his ability to remain consistent. That's not to say that usage in itself is the central issue, even if its messy nature could be yielding some of the declining results we're witnessing. There could be an issue with the stuff itself, as only the four-seam has resulted in a positive run value for Vásquez, and only the four-seamer (105) & sweeper (also 105) are above average in their effect by Stuff+. Or perhaps it's just a matter of the command needing continued refinement in order to find more sustained success. A pitcher in command of his arsenal would be able to locate not only for the called strikes we all love, but induce the chases he needs to avoid quality contact. Even if he's not walking people at as high a clip during this regression, the other elements speak to a pitcher not entirely in command. Whatever the issue may actually be, it's becoming increasingly clear that the Padres have a bit of a Randy Vásquez issue on their hands. For a rotation in as much peril as the Friars' is, both Vásquez and Michael King are the only members of the starting five entrenched in their role for the foreseeable future. Given those stakes, it's clear that the former needs to get back to his early season ways sooner rather than later. View full article

As we hit the end of June, the San Diego Padres' rotation picture remains as clouded as ever. Michael King is entrenched at the top of the starting five. We know that much. Randy Vásquez continues to provide decent-enough volume to stick around as part of the group despite increasingly alarming peripherals. From there, it gets messy. Lucas Giolito is now on the injured list with JP Sears up to replace him. Germán Márquez is nearing the end of a rehab assignment before his 5.76 ERA can rejoin the group. Griffin Canning has struggled mightily with his command, while each of Nick Pivetta & Joe Musgrove remain out indefinitely. If you're keeping track, that's two certainties for five spots, three massive question marks in the middle, and three injured arms on the other end. The Padres had Wandy Peralta serve as an opener on Tuesday with Sears scheduled to take the ball on Wednesday. They'll have an off day before circling back to Vásquez to open their series with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday. Which means that the most pressing question at this exact moment — how the team should handle Márquez & Canning upon the former's return — will get pushed to at least the weekend. It's difficult to imagine that the Padres would be comfortable running out both pitchers in their rotation given their respective struggles. While Giolito's absence does make it possible (as does Sears' ability to move to El Paso), each of Márquez and Canning have represented the starters with the largest hurdles to overcome in 2026. Prior to hitting the IL with a forearm injury, Márquez had made six starts for the Padres. He pitched to a 5.76 ERA, 6.64 FIP, a 14.8 percent strikeout rate, and a 9.4 percent walk rate. While his command fell within the neighborhood of "middling" from a walks perspective, his continually waning 94.3 MPH fastball velocity and precisely average (by Stuff+) knuckle-curve couldn't avoid hard contact; Márquez's 45.8 percent hard-hit rate sits in just the ninth percentile league-wide. Canning, meanwhile, has struggled with his command on the other side of the spectrum. His ERA sits at 7.38, largely due to the fact that he's walking more hitters than ever (13.7 percent). When hitters do swing, they're doing more damage than they were against Márquez in the hard-hit game, with Canning posting a 50.4 percent rate in that respect. He's had his moments, with a clean five-inning start against the New York Mets on June 6 and a 4.1 inning, one-run outing following an opener against St. Louis on June 17. The issue is that in between those kind of outings, he's had clunkers like a seven-run start on June 12 and a pair of six-run starts earlier in his Padres tenure. His second bulk outing saw him unable to finish even an inning and being credit for four runs before Kyle Hart cleaned up the bases he left loaded. Fresh as that particular outing may be, neither arm is one that's going to inspire much confidence. As such, determining which the Padres could go when Márquez is ready to return becomes a difficult task. In the case of Márquez, he's coming off four successful rehab outings with El Paso. He's thrown 15.1 innings, allowed three runs in total, and has his velocity up to 95.1 MPH. There's also more of an established track record (even if not terribly recently) to the point where the Padres may feel more comfortable rolling with him if they had to choose. Especially in the face of Canning's command woes. Even if the Friars wanted to get creative, something like piggybacking appears out of the question. Márquez has an 8.49 ERA his first time through the order while Canning features a 6.61 figure through the first pass. Given the inability to option either pitcher, it may be something they explore nevertheless, especially if they feel it can offer a bit more volume than they'd get from either arm on their own. Volume is, realistically, going to be the name of the game here. Neither pitcher is in a situation that offers Craig Stammen's squad legitimate upside, even if Márquez is showcasing improved velocity while out on rehab assignment. He has, though, given them 4.8 innings per start this year while Canning's down at 4.6 innings per start (excluding his bulk appearances out of the bullpen). If it's as simple as those two components, then perhaps the edge goes to Márquez. At the same time, maybe they feel as if Canning deserves a bit more runway himself in still working his way back to full strength from last year's Achilles injury. Tuesday's appearance could sap them of that patience, though. If this feels like stretching to make a case for one, that's the situation in which the Padres find themselves. It was always a volume approach to rounding out the rotation with the hope being that someone would latch onto a gig and run with it. That hasn't happened, to the point where the team likely is not going to be comfortable allowing each to retain their own spot even in the absence of three other starting pitchers. Given the development on Tuesday, it does feel like it'll be Márquez next time around, whether out of the gate or working in bulk. With such a shallow pool from which to choose, though, it's anybody's guess how this plays out over the remainder of the 2026 campaign. View full article

As Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres plummet further down the standings of the National League West, it becomes more difficult to find the positives in the offense given its responsibility for said plight. Tatis has played his own role within that as he and his fellow stalwarts in the lineup — namely Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill — have continued to generate production far below the threshold that their career norms and respective skill sets indicate. Considering his face-of-the-franchise status, Tatis represents the loudest of the struggling entries into the Padre lineup. A player with multiple 6.0 fWAR campaigns to his credit, the right-fielder-turned-second-baseman has just a pair of home runs on the stat sheet this year, and even those didn't start coming until May 30. It's not as if getting the ball over the outfield fence is the sole struggle of Tatis' game this year, either. Prior to this season, his lowest ISO over a full season was .178 (a number he posted last season). That's a modest figure coming off a .216 mark in 2024 and an even farther cry from where he was early in his career. There's plenty of context for why he's experienced such a precarious drop on the power side, but even the .073 ISO he's posted thus far in 2026 represents a rather severe regression against any of his previous seasons at this level. With the collective struggling to generate any source of power — the Padres rank 23rd in the league with a .144 team ISO — Tatis' role in its absence sits near the top of the team's list of concerns. That doesn't mean he has been a total zero at the plate, however. In fact, there are a number of things he's done that merit attention even in the face of such a dwindling power figure. By wRC+, Tatis has actually been better than league average (103). His line looks rather solid at .285/.349/.358. Even if the power isn't there, he's hitting well enough and walking at a sturdy-enough clip (8.9 percent) to create a steady on-base presence at the top of the order. He's also continued to make quality contact, with a hard-hit rate (53.1 percent) that sits within striking distance of his career average (52.5) and in the 96th percentile. In addition to that consistency, his 74.1 percent contact rate is almost entirely in line with each of the last two years following a 74.4 figure in 2024 and a 74.9 mark last season. Tatis has also been a rare bright spot on the situational side. He's hitting .306 with a .370 on-base percentage with runners on base while also going for a .316 average and .388 OBP with runners in scoring position. Each of his strikeout and walk rates trend in positive directions, while his wRC+ sits at 102 and 101 in the two situations, respectively. Even without the power, he's comfortably above where the Padres as a whole are performing in those situations; the team is slashing .238/.316/.400 with runners on and .236/.323/.392 when they're in scoring position. Of course, it's difficult for any of this to compensate for the absence of power. If anything, it only serves to make it all the more perplexing considering the positive swing decisions and quality of contact, perhaps driving home the idea that there's something mechanical at play that he simply cannot work his way out of. In any case, two things can be true: It's important not to lose sight of the fact that there's still a quality player in there (especially in conjunction with his defensive acumen), while also recognizing that Fernando Tatis Jr. needs to find his power stroke in order to fully realize his value to the San Diego Padres. View full article

Despite being clear of the health woes that plagued him in 2025, Jackson Merrill has not been immune to the struggles of the collective San Diego Padres offense. In fact, he's largely been a driver of such struggles. As he approaches his first 300 plate appearances of the season, Merrill carries a line of just .213/.277/.358 with little power (.146 ISO) and a wRC+ of 79. Each of his strikeout (24.1 percent) and walk (7.8 percent) rates are up a touch, with very little batted ball luck on which to fall back (.259 BABIP). He's provided steady defense and been a force on the bases (12 steals), but there hasn't been much to generate excitement over his performance at the plate. The month of June has represented a turnaround in at least one respect, however. Merrill's power is beginning to show itself with more consistency than we'd seen in the first couple of months of the season. Many of the issues that we saw from Merrill have persisted even halfway this month. His slash still only features a batting average of .226 and on-base percentage lingering around .260. His wRC+ is still, technically, that of a below-average hitter at 93. His batted ball fortunes are worse than ever, at a .244 BABIP. The power, though, is of particular interest. Merrill's ability to impact a baseball game with one swing has started to appear, even in the face of continued struggle elsewhere. Merrill's ISO this month reads .210. Coming off a .130 figure in March & April and a .121 output in May, that's particularly encouraging. His three home runs this month match his total from March & April with half the month still to go. What's more is that Merrill's 52.1 percent hard-hit rate represents his highest in an individual month this year. That's by a fairly wide margin, too; he had rates of 44.2 and 47.7 percent in each of the the first two months. What's interesting in the re-emergence of his power is that it's largely come on the strength of his work against breaking pitches. While Merrill's best work in his career has come against the hard stuff (run values of six and seven in his first two seasons, respectively), his rookie year showcased an impressive standing against breaking pitches. This month, he's mashing them: His 61.5 percent hard-hit rate against breaking pitches this month is his highest against any of the three groups in any month thus far. He's finding the barrel at an obscene 23.1 percent clip, too, helping to drive that trend. Two of his three home runs this month have also come against breaking pitches. It's something that Merrill clearly recognizes, as well. His swing rate against breaking pitches is up at 68.2 percent this month, leading all pitch groups. What's encouraging about that is that while he's swinging at them more, he's not whiffing. Merrill's swing-and-miss rate against breaking pitches is actually down slightly from last month, while his fly-ball rate on contact has more than doubled to 53.8 percent. Whether or not this is a permanent trend, however, remains to be seen. Merrill's best work has always come against fastballs. They've served as the primary source of quality contact and subsequent power output in the small sample that his career still is. That breaking balls have jumped to the forefront of his production is an interesting development that doesn't feature a strong foundation on which to stand at this point. What may be more important in terms of that foundational skillset is that Merrill appears to be locking in his eye on some level. There's a pitch recognition happening here that is allowing him to jump on breaking pitches. Perhaps that's something that can carry over into the rest of his approach as he tries to reestablish himself as a multi-faceted offensive player. That's something that we'll have to continue to monitor given the minuscule sample with which we have to work. View full article

The San Diego Padres have what is perhaps the most impressive pitcher in baseball in Mason Miller. At worst, they have its most impressive pitch in the form of his slider. But while his slider and obscene velocity compound to grab most of the narrative around the stability of the team's relief corps, it shouldn't overshadow the work being done by Adrian Morejon. That Morejon is having an excellent season is hardly surprising. He's coming off a pair of impressive campaigns, including a 2025 season in which he posted a 2.08 ERA, 2.2 fWAR, and made an appearance in Atlanta as a National League All-Star. That excellence is a bit overlooked, however, given the first number to which one always points when examining a pitcher's quality: the ERA. Morejon has a 4.00 ERA through his first 33 appearances of 2026. That number itself ranks only 119th among qualifying relief pitchers. It's a number that makes his overall performance somewhat easy to overlook. It's also incredibly deceptive. Despite that figure sitting atop the stat sheet, Morejon has thrived everywhere else. His percentile distribution alone is indicative of a pitcher that has been much better than such a number would indicate; he ranks in the top 10 percent league-wide in xERA, fastball velocity, average exit velocity allowed, barrel rate allowed, hard-hit rate, chase rate, whiff rate, walk rate, and ground-ball rate. In other words, he's one of the best pitchers in the sport at basically anything you can do on the mound. Not only has Morejon brought elite velocity, he's been dominant in forcing opposing hitters to chase and look foolish in doing so, as illustrated by his whiff rate (34.2 percent). In those rare instances in which hitters do make contact, they're not doing it to any meaningful extent. As such, it becomes easy to attribute the ERA to a blend of bad luck (.305 opposing BABIP) and a pair of isolated clunky outings (one on April 7 in Pittsburgh and one on June 4 in Philadelphia). Otherwise, he's been genuinely excellent. Beyond the ERA itself, Morejon has posted a 2.21 FIP and strikeout (28.1 percent) & walk (4.8 percent) rates that would stand as a career best if the season ended today. He's already turned in a 1.3 fWAR figure, putting him on pace to at least match the total he posted in his standard-setting 2025 season. That Morejon is posting these numbers speaks to what the stuff is doing this year. He's thrown the sinker as a primary pitch at 47 percent of the time, with each of his slider (21 percent), changeup (18 percent), and four-seam (14 percent) serving as consistently-used secondary offerings. Stuff+ loves all four pitches, as they carry figures of 133, 127, 129, and 121, respectively. That means that not only his pitches above average in their physical characteristics but comfortably above. Only Mason Miller's slider ranks higher on the season among Padre pitchers and nobody (not even Miller) has a better pitch by that measure since the start of June. For what it's worth, all four pitches also sit above average on the Location+ side with the changeup leading the way at 115, indicating he's not only maximizing his pitches in their shape but in their situational value as well. Statcast's new data around swing timing and miss distance helps to further emphasize the work being done by Morejon: In general, the pitches are doing what they're supposed to be doing. Hitters are late on the four-seam and early on each of the changeup & slider. Two of Morejon's pitches, the change and the four-seam, rank in the top eight of individual Padre pitches in their ability to generate flawed swings (20 and 16 percent, respectively). That Morejon's avoiding bats in this way speaks to not only the stuff itself but his ability to locate. It's an effective supplement to what each of Stuff+ & Location+ tell us. Regardless of metric, though, it all tells us the same thing: Adrian Morejon has been one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball in 2026. If anything, his ability to mix four pitches this effectively rather than the relief industry standard of two or maybe three only adds to the lore. It's easy to overlook the season he's having; the Padres are struggling, his ERA looks below average, and he shares a bullpen seat with baseball's objectively best reliever. None of that, though, should lead to an underestimation of just how good Adrian Morejon has been this season. View full article

In Mason Miller, the San Diego Padres have the best relief arm in baseball coming out of their bullpen. The wild thing is that the above sentiment isn't opinion. It's as objective an idea as possible considering his blend of velocity, strikeouts, and overall ability to prevent runs. As the calendar hits the middle of June, Miller is one of the only certainties the Padres possess on a roster full of questions. Miller's 1.9 fWAR through his first 29 appearances leads all qualifying relievers. As does his remarkable 51.8 percent strikeout rate (Miller has faced 114 hitters as of this writing and struck out 59 of them). His 0.90 ERA ranks fifth among that group, but he's also allowing the least amount of hard contact by a wide margin (14.0 percent) in those rare instances in which a hitter even gets a bat on the ball. Miller's 51.9 percent contact rate is the best in the sport by more than seven percent. His 101.3 MPH fastball velocity also sits at the top of the leaderboard. For an illustrated indicator of just how good he's been, take his Baseball Savant percentile chart. He ranks in the 100th percentile for (i.e., he's the best in baseball at) the following: xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, average exit velocity allowed, barrel rate allowed, hard-hit rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. Oh, and his chase rate and ground-ball rate also rank in the top 10 perecent among all pitchers league-wide. Given all of that, we didn't necessarily need new reasons to be impressed by Miller. He was already one of the game's top closers upon his arrival in San Diego and has only increased in his dominance in the trips he's taken to the mound since. However, Statcast's new data has given us even more ways in which that dominance can be quantified. The introduction of the swing timing and the miss distance leaderboard unlocks additional insight into the impact of pitches. We now have more of a tangible means to describe just how much certain pitchers can overwhelm the average hitter. The miss distance helps to indicate just that; it's the closest distance (in inches) between the top half of the bat and the ball over the course of a swing. Swing timing, meanwhile, helps to indicate how in front of or behind, above or below, and horizontally centered a swing ends up on a given pitch or pitch type. In Miller's case, that data is illustrated below in a couple of different ways. The red curve is his fastball; the yellow curve is his slider. Let's talk about the fastball first. Hitters are able to keep it centered, sure. A four-seam isn't liable to feature too much horizontal movement to it, after all. What's more notable is in the timing and the vertical components. Hitters are much more liable to be behind. They're not getting completely overpowered given the overall velocity present in the game, but they're much more likely to be behind than directly on time, and they're certainly not going to be early. When you factor in the vertical movement in which a four-seamer moves upward — Miller gets 16.9 inches of induced break — it becomes nearly impossible for a hitter to make quality contact. In Miller's case, the 22.7 percent hard-hit rate he's allowing is more than 25 percent lower than it was last year. The slider is, perhaps, an even more impressive picture. In each of the three areas of the swing, hitters are all over the map. They're off the end of the bat, they're swinging early, and they're swinging over it. A "flawed" swing in the eyes of this new data is a swing in which a hitter fails on all three fronts. Miller's 37 percent rate of flawed swings with his slider isn't just the highest rate among any individual pitch type for any Padres pitcher, but the highest of any individual pitch for any pitcher in the sport. The 60 percent whiff rate with the slider is also atop the leaderboard, while his 67 percent rate of competitive swings is the lowest for any pitch. It's not just that Mason Miller is likely the most dominant reliever in the sport. He also possesses its most dominant pitch in his slider. That four-seam/slider combination is not a modern invention in baseball, but Miller is executing it as well as anybody we've seen in recent memory. The idea itself is not revelatory; Miller was already having an elite season by just about any measure. Statcast's new data is just another perspective to reinforce it. View full article

In just about every way possible, the 2026 season has been Manny Machado's worst of his major-league career. The last time Machado even flirted with the threshold constituting an average hitter was 2017, well before he was a member of the San Diego Padres. This year has represented something much worse, however, as Machado's wRC+ of just 73 has his offensive value among the 10-worst qualified hitters in the sport. Amid those struggles, concerns over age have begun to emerge. Unlike Fernando Tatis Jr. or Jackson Merrill, each of whom are also experiencing their own woes in 2026, Machado is at the point in his career where the aging curve looms as a factor. His bat speed has declined in the last few seasons while his power output is threatening to decrease for a sixth consecutive campaign. It's an entirely reasonable concern given how things have transpired in San Diego. The most surefire of the concerns would have manifested in the form of issues against fastballs. Waning bat speed unable to keep up with increasing velocity could be indicative of such age-related issues, especially given that Machado's best work has come against the hard stuff. His hard-hit rate has been highest against fastballs every season of his big league career. His best outcomes in terms of batting average have come against fastballs in five of the last seven seasons prior to 2026 and, with the exception of 2022, have always been within just a few percentage points of whatever pitch type did end up atop the list. They've also represented the lowest source of swing-and-miss for Machado throughout his career. Until 2026, at least. This year, Machado is hitting a mere .192 against the hard stuff. Of course, that number's relative given the .167 average he's produced against off-speed and .135 average versus breaking pitches. Nevertheless, it's a sharp decline combined with a swing-and-miss rate of 22.8 percent that, for the first time, rests narrowly above the off-speed stuff for the lowest among the three groups. His whiff rate is also cause for concern, as a 21.4 percent swing-and-miss rate on fastballs inside the zone represents a slight increase of last year's number that served as a big jump from 2024. However, before we start to get too wrapped up in Machado's fight against the aging curve, there are a couple of things to consider. The first is the luck component. Machado's .210 batting average against fastballs comes despite a .272 xBA. His .320 wOBA against that pitch type sits far lower than his .371 xwOBA indicates. He's still making hard contact over half the time against fastballs (53.4 percent), but not finding fortune in doing so. Perhaps more important, though, is Statcast's new data around swing timing and miss distances. This new information informs us not only about a hitter's timing against each of the three prominent pitch groups but how much they're missing in the event that they're not making contact. As easy as it could be to find concern over Machado's performance against fastballs, this new data tends to lean the other direction. Here is Machado's performance against fastballs specifically: Machado is centering the ball effectively. He's getting slightly under it in a way that you want to be against fastballs. Most importantly, though, he's not that late on fastballs. The middle graph in the above indicates that he's a touch late, but mostly on time. Given his declining bat speed and the velocity against which he's going, this is not an unreasonable trend quite yet. Certainly not one that would offer genuine concern for his ability to handle heat. Further, Machado's average miss distance against fastballs sits at 0.9 inches. That's below the big-league average of 1.3 inches. He has a flawed swing — characterized as a swing that does none of the three above components correctly — just seven percent of the time while generating perfect contact at a 24 percent clip. His competitive swing rate of 92.9 percent is one of the top rates for any Padre hitter against any pitch type. Reason for optimism exists here, borne out of the fact that Machado isn't as overmatched by fastballs as other bits of information may have us believe. It's possible that there's a bit of a timing issue at play, certainly. Perhaps even a pitch recognition issue. But between the luck element and the information wrought by the new Statcast data, we can stave off thoughts of Manny Machado's retirement for at least another day. View full article

As far as samples go, it's nearly impossible to glean anything from less than 20 plate appearances for a player. And that really goes for any point during the season, let alone the first 20. Samad Taylor, though, is providing a bit of intrigue through his minuscule sample for the San Diego Padres, and it has less to do with what he's done in those trips to the plate and more with what he's done elsewhere. That's not to say that the work at the play hasn't been solid thus far. Heading into the weekend series agains the Orioles, Taylor slashed .333/.444/.400 while walking 15.8 percent of the time. He's also knocked in five runs and swiped a pair of bases. That's objectively good work, even if we're only looking at a quintet of games in which he's appeared for the Padres thus far. If anything, his play has been crucial for a team that will take offense anywhere that they can get it at present. Taylor's value, though, lies in what he's been able to bring with the glove. The Padres have spent 2026 ascending up the defensive leaderboard, courtesy of an improved situation behind the plate and upgraded personnel — in the form of a newly-signed Ty France at first and an adapting Fernando Tatis Jr. at second — at key spots. The early returns on Taylor have continued to add to that defensive growth, especially in the wake of Ramón Laureano's potentially season-ending absence. On Sunday against the New York Mets, Taylor made this catch in what had become a close game: He was at it against the next night against Cincinnati, preserving a tie game with a runner on second base: Against the Reds, he went on to give the Padres the lead on a bunt single in the seventh inning before adding two more on another single later in the game. He repeated the effort on Tuesday night, tying the game on a single in the bottom of the 10th inning (though the Padres would go on to lose the latter contest). For a team like the Friars, Taylor's skill set is one that has value. The defensive aspect is crucial. Laureano had been putting together a better defensive season than the team saw from him post-deadline in 2025, and the Padres stood to lose quite a bit by rolling Gavin Sheets out in left field with regularity. Taylor's speed and defensive acumen help to ensure stability in the outfield in Laureano's absence. Given how paramount run prevention has become for a team that is starved for offense, that stability is more essential than it may be for your average club. Taylor's speed, in itself, is another asset to the Padres. It's not elite speed, mind you, as he sits narrowly above league average at 27.9 ft/sec. However, the Padres are a slow baseball team in terms of their regulars. Each of Ty France, Manny Machado, and Gavin Sheets rank well below the average threshold in sprint speed while a number of others linger right around the average mark. Taylor's wheels have proven to be a benefit not only in his defense, but in the bunt single that propelled the team to a win on Monday night. We're not necessarily talking about a game-breaker in Samad Taylor. This is a journeyman player with only 102 plate appearances to his name at the major-league level across three seasons. However, considering San Diego's current roster and overall struggles, one imagines he could be primed for his most extended run at this level to date. That could greatly benefit both parties if he keeps up his early stretch of sound play. View full article