Randy Holt

It might've got lost in the midst of the re-signing of starter Michael King and the multi-year deal for infielder Sung Mun Song, but the San Diego Padres made an additional under-the-radar pickup last week in former Cleveland Guardians pitchers Triston McKenzie. It's only a minor-league deal that includes a spring training invite, but has the ability to yield big dividends for a Padres team starved for any semblance of starting pitching depth they can find. A couple of years ago, such a pickup would've generated a hefty buzz around the baseball world. As recently as 2022, McKenzie looked like one of the game's rising stars on the mound. That year, he posted a 2.96 ERA, a 25.6 percent strikeout rate, and a 5.9 percent walk rate on his way to a 3.4 fWAR campaign. Unfortunately for McKenzie, however, that would prove to be the peak of his powers up to this point. In the years since, McKenzie has battled seemingly constant injury issues. The 2023 season saw both shoulder and elbow issues develop, and he elected rehab over Tommy John surgery for the latter. As such, he's thrown less than 100 innings at the major-league level in the last three years combined, with his highest volume of work coming across 16 starts in 2024. His performance has suffered in those rare instances of play, with that 2024 season featuring an ERA over five and a fWAR that fell on the negative end of the threshold (-1.0). At his peak, McKenzie featured a fastball that averaged just under 93 MPH, a curveball that garnered whiffs at a 45 percent clip, and a slider that allowed quality contact at an impressive 30.9 percent rate. As a reliever with the Guardians in 2025, McKenzie threw only 5 2/3 innings. But it seems notable that his fastball velocity was closer to 94 and his curveball checked in at a swing-and-miss rate of 66.7 percent. It's a minuscule sample, but it speaks to the idea that McKenzie might have something to offer now a couple years clear of those woeful health developments back in 2023. An important factor to consider in this is Ruben Niebla, whose tenure in Cleveland overlapped heavily with McKenzie's time in the organization. He was the team's minor league pitching coordinator through 2019 before being elevated to the big-league staff as assistant pitching coach that year. Having left for the Padres in 2021, his work as pitching coach is evident in maximizing usage and outcomes for pitchers. One imagines that McKenzie joining this particular organization gives him as good a shot as any at reviving his career considering Niebla's presence. For McKenzie, that context of coaching personnel compounds with opportunity in order to create a logical fit. Even with Michael King back in the mix, this is still a team that lacks a full rotation at the top level. King joins Nick Pivetta as the only locks for Opening Day, while Joe Musgrove shouldn't be too far behind in his return from Tommy John. Randy Vásquez, JP Sears, and Matt Waldron each remain around as depth options, but there's a clear chance for McKenzie to create an impact here if he's able to regain any semblance of his previous form. That'll start with his command. The stuff played well enough in his brief time with Cleveland last season, but he was unable to gain any traction with his feel for the strike zone. If Niebla can help him get back to even remotely what he was in 2022, McKenzie is an arm that possesses farm more upside than any of Vásquez, Sears, Waldron, or Kyle Hart. We've seen this organization redeem players on both sides of the ball in recent years, though McKenzie's name and pedigree offer a steeper climb and more bountiful payoff if he can reach relevance once again. Even if he's unable to get completely back to form, there's at least a level of intrigue in his attempt to do so. For a team that generally lacks such mystique, he'll be a fun story to follow this spring. View full article

The San Diego Padres made a pair of notable additions to their infield group last week, and both should have something to say about the team's first base conundrum. First, and probably more notably, they signed Korean infielder Sung Mun Song to a three-year deal. Later in the day, it was reported that they had signed former Minnesota Twins corner infielder José Miranda to a minor-league deal that includes a spring training invite. Song's addition will impact the team much more immediately and directly. Whether it leads to a trade of someone like Jake Cronenworth or simply takes the load off an infield group that needed some reliable depth, there is a multitude of ways in which he can be impactful for the 2026 team. Miranda, meanwhile, will have to work a bit more to take on the minor-league-invitee-to-impactful-role-player trajectory that we saw from Gavin Sheets last season. Regardless of either player's contribution in 2026, though, they each (in their own way) create a bit of mystery surrounding how the Padres may handle their one remaining vacancy on the infield dirt: first base. The 2025 Padres had six different players appear at first base. Luis Arráez was there for 117 games, trade deadline acquisition Ryan O'Hearn was in there for 27, and each of Jake Cronenworth and Gavin Sheets took reps on 13 occasions. Plus, Yuli Gurriel appeared four times and Connor Joe once early in the season. Of that group, only Cronenworth and Sheets remain. Arráez and O'Hearn remain free agents, with each of Gurriel and Joe finding themselves out of the organization early on last season. Including the two holdovers, the Padres now, technically, have five players capable of playing first base in their organization. Cronenworth handled first base duties in 2023 and a good deal of the time in 2024. Sheets profiles better at first base than he does in the outfield. While he only played second and third for Kiwoom last year, Song has some time at first to his name in previous years. Miranda was once Minnesota's first baseman of the future before falling off severely and grabbing only 36 plate appearances in 2025. Then you throw in Luis Campusano, whom the team might like more as a first base and designated hitter option even with his present status as the team's backup catcher. That's a lot of names, four of which are on the active roster. That opens up numerous possibilities as to how the team could handle the position heading into 2026. The simplest is that you have some kind of combination of Cronenworth and Song on the right side of the infield. Maybe that's Cronenworth at first and Song at second. Perhaps it's the other way around, especially with Song possessing a bit more power upside that serves as a prerequisite for the position. In that case, Sheets lands as your primary designated hitter and occasional corner outfield or first base fill-in, while Campusano plies his trade only as the team's backup catcher and gets in as the DH on occasion. In that scenario, Miranda isn't likely to be a factor on the major-league roster. However, should Miranda force his way in, things get a little more complicated. Maybe you've got a Miranda-Cronenworth-Song combination between first and second that is dependent on matchups. Or Miranda serves purely as a bench bat to fill in at either corner infield spot while Cronenworth and Song hold down the right side with more regularity. Sheets and Campusano then fight it out for some extra time as the designated hitter. It becomes more mouths to feed in the plate appearances game. Of course, Cronenworth could be traded. Then you're likely looking at Song as the everyday guy at the keystone while Miranda and Sheets comprise more of a platoon situation between first base and designated hitter. Campusano maybe fills in on occasion, but those are your priorities. That scenario requires the most heavy lifting, as you not only have to have a theoretical trade of Cronenworth but also a hypothetical situation in which Miranda wins a roster spot in camp. Given that it's A.J. Preller we're talking about, there's also the looming chance that an outside addition still has yet to manifest. Paul Goldschmidt exists on the free agent market. Even if his bat isn't what it once was, he adds a stable glove — assuming his -3 Outs Above Average in 2025 was an outlier — and an intangible presence. Rhys Hoskins and his .237 career ISO figure are also out on the free-agent market. Neither would cost a ton, to say nothing of a fallen-out-of-favor trade for someone like Triston Casas in Boston. For what it's worth, Mark Vientos is reportedly also available, and Preller has reportedly already talked to the New York Mets on some level in recent days. Essentially, the Padres now have two roads in front of them with respect to the first base position. They can either bring in a pure first baseman, with or without a Cronenworth trade, and maximize the flexibility of their current roster. Or, they can go with a volume approach and rotate out any of the options currently within their organization. With the composition of the current roster feeling incomplete, it's difficult to know which path is the "correct" one as of now. View full article

While we don't know a whole lot about the reported trade talks between the San Diego Padres & the New York Mets, we at least know enough to be intrigued. Even if they've slowed at this point. For example, we know that neither of Fernando Tatis Jr. on the Padres' end nor Francisco Lindor on the Mets' side were included as part of the talks. We also know that Mason Miller's name emerged as part of the discussion. At this point, that's kind of all we know. But that leaves a whole lot of wiggle room for speculation. Let's talk about the things we do know first. It's not a surprise that neither of the team's respective stars are a part of the discussion. A.J. Preller has come as close as possible to declaring Fernando Tatis Jr. untouchable without saying the literal phrase while the team is also unlikely to be willing to take on another long-term contract for a position player. Despite Lindor's continued status as one of the game's top shortstops — he still posted a 6.3 fWAR in 2025 even with a slight power dip — he's a 32-year-old under contract through 2031. Preller is more compelled to get money off the books for the long-term, rather than add to it. Miller's inclusion in talks is, somewhat paradoxically, also not a surprise. Despite the fact that the team only acquired him in July for a package that included top prospect Leo De Vries, trading from the bullpen represents perhaps the best opportunity for the Padres to make improvements to their roster in areas that are not as fortified. As for the still-known-but-less-tangible components of the two matching up on a potential deal, we know the Padres are seeking starting pitching, even following the re-signing of Michael King. The Mets have some depth there and some intriguing names in the upper levels of their system. On their side of things, they're looking to supplement their offense upon Pete Alonso's departure while also adding to their relief corps after Edwin Díaz left for the Los Angeles Dodgers. While it's difficult to see the Padres moving Miller for anything resembling less than a similar haul to the one they gave up, the idea that his name is part of the discussion at least lends itself to a larger one that any move between the two teams would include a reliever of significance (of which the Padres have many). So, it makes sense that either team would find some solace in the other as far as trade partners go. For Preller, though, the Mets may represent the most ideal trade partner he could find this offseason. The Padres and their rotation represent perhaps as obvious a need as exists for any club across the major league landscape. With only Nick Pivetta (and King) set to serve as an established starter, there's an urgency for Preller to solidify the group. If he can do so while also threading the needle of the holy grail of trade acquisitions (controllable starting pitching), the Mets can offer him exactly what he wants. The Mets have already said that Nolan McLean represents an untouchable quantity from their farm system. He's the No. 11 prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline, and should factor heavily in their rotation in 2026. Fortunately for the Padres, he's not the only prospective starter near the top of their farm that's slotted into the league's top 100 prospects. Jonah Tong is a name you'll likely hear a lot if trade talks between the two sides continue. His Pipeline writeup states the following: The profile goes on to note his rising walk rate but also communicates the idea that he could be part of a rotation in 2026. Tong's combination of stuff, deception, and fact that he's only 22 represent a tantalizing combination for an organization like San Diego. And he's not the only one. Brandon Sproat no longer qualifies as a prospect, but his 2024 profile notes the following: Velocity, interesting secondary pitches, and 25 years old? That all tracks as something the Padres certainly desire. Either of Tong or Sproat would be a massive addition to the Padres not only for 2026 but moving forward. It remains to be seen if they'd have to part with an arm like Miller to get a prospect with Tong-like pedigree, but it's not as if he's the only reliever with tremendous upside in the bullpen. It's also not as if Tong and Sproat are the only intriguing names within the Mets' organization, either. We previously discussed the idea of a Kodai Senga trade on the San Diego side of things. While far from a sure thing given his injury history, he'd certainly offer upside at what would likely be perceived as a lower cost than either of Tong or Sproat. There are also reports that the Mets are willing to part with David Peterson, who is coming off a career-high 30 starts in 2025. He's more of an unexciting vintage among the options, but would offer some stability for a rotation that currently lacks it. There are obviously plenty of nuances to any arm that the Padres could acquire from the Mets, to say nothing of any deal at large. But with New York having a blend of established big-league arms and high-upside prospects which would slot well into a rotation starved for innings, the long and short of the discussion is that they represent the most ideal trade partner for A.J. Preller. While we'll likely hear of others in the coming weeks, the dialogue with the Mets should continue for that reason alone. View full article

A.J. Preller has been activated. As evidenced by the San Diego Padres' re-signing of Michael King and signing of South Korean infielder Sung Mun Song, the organization now stands to play a significant role in how the remainder of the winter transpires across the landscape of Major League Baseball. And while the addition of Song, in particular, could have a bearing on the team's willingness to deal from their position player group, he stands to serve as a wildly important addition regardless of how the rest of the offseason unfolds. The 2025 Padres lacked infield depth. Outside of the starters, it was a group that was led by Jose Iglesias in a reserve role. The veteran appeared at second base for 40 games, third base for 24, and shortstop for another 32. Mason McCoy made a dozen appearances at short and another two at the keystone. There was a smattering of Tyler Wade in there early, too. To recap, that's a wRC+ of 73 (Iglesias), 42 (McCoy), and 69 (Wade) in support of their starting group. And that starting group didn't remain healthy throughout the year, with Xander Bogaerts, in particular, only appearing in 125 games. Plus, Jake Cronenworth missed a bit of time early in the year. Suffice it to say that when there was an absence — however brief it may have been — the Padres had a problem on their hands without any supplemental offense to speak of. Song's addition changes the calculus entirely. In general, the team is getting a versatile infielder that supplements the starting lineup with significantly more offensive upside than anyone they trotted out last year. His most recent KBO action featured a .315/.387/.530 line with 26 homers and 25 steals. Song logged time only at second and third base last year but also has some first base reps to his credit. His addition, as such, unlocks some versatility for the current roster. As things stand right now, you're looking at some combination of Gavin Sheets and Luis Campusano at first base. Jake Cronenworth will primarily handle the keystone while bouncing over to first occasionally. Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado remain in place to handle shortstop and third base, respectively. While first base still stands as the most likely of the positions for an upgrade at present (barring a trade of Cronenworth), let's momentarily assume that no further transactions unfold with respect to the infield. Sheets' on-paper ability to move to the outfield corners and Campusano's current obligation as the team's No. 2 catcher allows new manager Craig Stammen to work Song in with some frequency, perhaps even as the primary first baseman if he's more content to have Sheets serve as a DH and let Campusano develop his glove behind the plate without additional obligations. Cronenworth can also slide over if he wants Song in at second base. Perhaps most importantly, though, is the fact that Song can step in reliably at third. That allows Stammen to work Machado in as the designated hitter with at least a little more frequency. We've seen his bat go through questionable stretches and his glove work decline a shade over the last two years. The flexibility there just adds a bit more of a safety net in those stretches where an approach or mechanical adjustment is needed on the part of Machado, without the extra burden of focusing on the defensive side of the ball. It's not that Song will supplant Machado for any meaningful stretch of time, but more so that he just offers that extra layer of protection for an essential player entering a season in which he'll turn 34 years old. Regardless of specifics, though, it cannot be overstated how much more dynamic the infield group becomes with Sung-mun Song now in the mix. Even if he's unable to attain a role as a traditional everyday player, he offers a level of offensive upside as a fill-in or injury replacement that the Padres lacked entirely in 2025. Not only does he offer the bat-to-ball skills that you prefer from that kind of role, but he possesses much more power and speed upside. While it's now much more likely that they deal from this group than it might have been even a few days ago, it's clear that the floor has been raised considerably on the infield grass in San Diego. View full article

A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres are always lurking. So, when it was reported (though eventually clarified) that Michael King had boiled his free agency down to three teams — the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, and New York Yankees — it was hardly shocking that it was San Diego that was able to convince the New York state native to put pen to paper and remain on the West Coast. King and the Padres agreed to a new three-year pact on Dec. 18. The deal can pay him up to $75 million across the three years, though only the first is guaranteed for both sides. Each of the two additional years carries a player option, with those two years holding the potential to pay King $58 million ($28 million in 2027, $30 million in 2028). The deal carries significant risk for the Padres, as there's plenty of opt-out potential if King can stay healthy and earn a longer-term contract following the 2026 campaign. If he's not healthy or struggles, then they're on the hook for significant dollars. Nevertheless, it's hard to overstate the value of familiarity in beginning the process of stabilizing a presently shallow rotation. The Padres entered the offseason with only Nick Pivetta guaranteed within their starting five. Dylan Cease departed for Toronto, and it was widely expected King would follow him out the door. Even with Joe Musgrove set to return from Tommy John surgery early in the year, his lack of a firm timeline and a collection of fringe arms — JP Sears, Sean Boyle, Randy Vásquez, and Matt Waldron — left very little by which to be inspired as far as the starting pitching group was concerned. Worse yet was that the path to actually improving that status was murky. The farm system is barren to the point where acquiring an impact starter via trade would've likely been impossible. Additionally, the organization is seemingly always in some form of financial peril, a situation which had the potential to become worse as ownership explores a potential sale of the franchise. So, while names like Ranger Suárez, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Tatsuya Imai exist on the free-agent market and options like Freddy Peralta or maybe Tarik Skubal are available via trade, possessing the resources to acquire any of them was going to be a tall order. Even for an executive as ambitious as Preller. Which is why, despite the risk, the re-signing of Michael King is in the upper tier of worthwhile roads the Padres could have traversed in their pursuit of starting pitching. When healthy, the Padres know what they're getting in King. The 2024 season, his first in San Diego, featured a 3.9 fWAR courtesy of a 2.95 ERA, a 27.7 percent strikeout rate, and an 8.7 percent walk rate. His percentile distribution looked as follows: Not only was King adept at running up his strikeout total, he was downright excellent in avoiding quality contact. It's an area in which he continued to find success through his injury-plagued, 15-start campaign of 2025. Despite the fact that he averaged fewer than five innings per start and took a major step back on the whiff side of things, he still ended things in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity for opposing hitters (87.8 MPH) and the 68th in Hard-Hit% against (38.1). For a player who worked through a nerve issue and knee inflammation over the course of a full season, that he still was able to maintain some level of effect is encouraging. What the Padres need King to do in 2026, above all, is to get back to his efficiency. He averaged 5.7 innings per start in that 2024 season, but followed it up with only 4.9 innings per start in 2025. The health component was (obviously) the primary factor there. Especially because there isn't a whole lot to be too discouraged by within the particulars. His fastball velocity only fell by 0.2 miles per hour through those issues, and his spin rates were actually higher on the year. There are some usage factors that could be improved (like getting the changeup back to its usual level of involvement and effectiveness), but health will be the primary factor in King providing value to the 2026 Padres. That's what they're banking on, too. The risk is obvious. If King experiences additional inflammation or nerve issues, then the Padres have a severe problem on their hands, both in terms of personnel and payroll. If healthy, though, he's a stabilizing force atop the rotation, capable of providing nearly six innings per start. And while the general public has already come to accept the idea that he'd opt out in the event of a strong season, he'd still be in line to take home elite money for two consecutive years. It'd be about years if he does, not dollars. Risk was going to be a natural byproduct of any of the notable free-agent options, though. And that's the important thing to consider here. Suárez has back issues. Gallen has had stretches of uneven performance and a smattering of trips to the injured list. Imai has to transition from Japan to the United States. Valdez is two years older. They all feature some kind of risk, and the term of any contract is projected to be longer for his free-agent counterparts. In King, the Padres not only get a short-term commitment (even if it doesn't end up completely working out), but familiarity. That matters. They know him in the physical sense and in a mechanical one. There isn't an adjustment period with the coaching staff given that Ruben Niebla is still running things as pitching coach. You purely have to ensure King is healthy, and it's unlikely the Padres and their limited resources would've been willing to make this investment if they believed he was anything but. Essentially, this is kind of an ideal outcome for the Padres. The risk exists but feels more minimal by comparison considering that familiarity. The contract doesn't run into next decade like, say, Xander Bogaerts' does. Above all, they now insert King atop their rotation alongside Pivetta and a returning Musgrove. This singular addition changes the pitching outlook for the staff and puts the roster into far better position than it was even 48 hours ago. View full article

When it was reported last week that the San Diego Padres were listening on Nick Pivetta and Jake Cronenworth, the reaction here at Padres Mission was twofold. The Cronenworth side was immediately acknowledged as legitimate and logical. If they're hoping to clear some longer-term money off the books, the lightest hitter of their positional contracts certainly makes some sense. Especially if it were to help them add some much-needed... anything to the rotation. We didn't meet the Pivetta component with quite the same gumption, however. Instead, we approached the idea of trading Nick Pivetta as indicating a threat of organizational purgatory. That state in which teams find themselves when they're not quite good enough to contend but not quite bad enough to blow it all up. Trading Pivetta could certainly indicate that. With no other starter locked in for Opening Day and perpetual reports of financial peril, the optics of such a move one year into a four-year pact wouldn't be terrific. At the same time, the aggression of the point may have overshot and missed the actual logic of it altogether. Because there's real sense in the Padres pursuing a trade of their veteran starter. In a number of ways, Pivetta is coming off the best season of his career. His 2.87 ERA stands as a career best, as does his 3.49 FIP. While his 26.4 percent strikeout rate didn't necessarily touch the highest rates of his career, his 6.9 percent walk rate trailed only 2024. Perhaps most important was that his 9.7 percent homer-to-fly-ball rate was the best of his career and nearly five percent lower than his career average. He wasn't overpowering in 2025, but his run prevention was top marks. With all of that said, there's reason to think that Pivetta is in for significant regression in the year(s) ahead. Here is his percentile distribution from 2025: There are number of items here that read as just okay (though they aren't necessarily alarming). His xERA was still firmly in the middle of the pack while he did a decent-enough job of generating chase and whiff from opposing hitters. None of those numbers are stellar, but you can absolutely work with each of them as a mid-rotation arm. Where things get concerning, however, is in the contact trends that Pivetta experienced. The barrel and hard-hit rates against speak for themselves. Pivetta sat near the bottom in each, with only 11 starters (of 107 qualifiers) allowing a higher barrel% than Pivetta's 10.9; only 20 served up a higher hard-hit rate than his 45.0. Pivetta's four-seam and curveball accounted for over 65 percent of his pitches thrown in 2025. Opposing hitters took each for an average of 12.2 percent in their barrel rate while the fastball, in particular, was touched for a hard-hit rate over 54 percent. The trends also got worse as the season wore on: It's unsurprising, then, that along the way, Pivetta's whiff rate also declined steadily. His fly-ball rate also rose successively in each individual month before dropping only in September. Such trends, at least when you're talking about a pitcher who worked to an unsustainable .235 BABIP, don't bode particularly well for the subsequent years of a multi-year contract. Not that Pivetta will be outright bad moving forward. His fastball-curveball combination, in conjunction with his zone aggression, go a long way toward keeping hitters off balance and led to an in-zone swing rate of just 63.5 percent. When you have one of the 16-lowest zone swing percentages in the sport, you can afford that aggression and live with some of the negative results of contact. The big issue is going to be the contact regression. That type of BABIP figure has a way of evening out. And even if Pivetta is able to freeze hitters who are caught off guard by his in-zone work, the contact trends aren't indicative of him continuing the remainder of his performance off last year's stat sheet. So, with that contract cost skyrocketing to $20.5 million in 2026 (per Roster Resource) before a pair of options worth a combined $32 million, you could understand if the Padres wanted to sell high on what Pivetta gave them last season. Especially if helps them to build a bit more for the medium- or longer-term. Of course, the massive caveat to all of this is that A.J. Preller would have to really work to fill in a rotation that becomes almost entirely empty sans Pivetta. Sure, there are some in-house arms that can cover a few innings and Joe Musgrove is due to return, but there are no other surefire, guaranteed starters on the 40-man roster at present. So the needle becomes quite difficult to thread. Can you acquire an upper-minors prospect who is major-league ready? Perhaps another fringe arm in addition with which you can attempt an upside play? There isn't any doubt that Preller could find value in Pivetta, who comes with cost certainty and a pair of seasons with an ERA lingering around four in his two years prior to 2025. He's a solid mid-rotation option coming off the best season of his career. There's plenty of logic in capitalizing on a guy like that considering the Padres' financial situation and what their farm system currently looks like. But with the Padres already lacking starters, innings coverage becomes even more burdensome a route this winter. Is the tradeoff one Preller is willing to make? View full article

There was a time when the San Diego Padres having an interest in Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. would've created a buzz across the landscape of Major League Baseball. After all, a center fielder with MVP-caliber upside is exactly the type of swing for which A.J. Preller has become known. Unfortunately for both Robert and the Padres, that time has since passed. Not that that's stopped the Padres, who are reported to be among the teams interested in acquiring Robert (along with the Phillies, Mets, and Pirates). But despite that rumored interest, such a pursuit would be a tough one for Preller to sell. That tough sell exists on multiple levels, too. Whether you're looking at the on-paper fit, the payroll fit, or the fit up against a variety of needs on the current roster, it doesn't seem a particularly worthwhile addition for San Diego. To say nothing of Robert's sharp decline in performance since he posted a 4.9 fWAR season back in 2023. It's all part of a rather puzzling motive on the part of Preller, assuming this interest is legitimate. From a roster standpoint, the Padres have their outfield for 2026 set. Robert's spot in center field is occupied for the long-term by Jackson Merrill, who still posted a 3.0 fWAR season despite battling through multiple injuries. Right field is spoken for in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr, also in the long term. While left field doesn't have the type of projectable stability that the other two spots have, Ramón Laureano is poised to handle full-time duty under his club option for next year. Barring a trade of one of the three (two of which would be shocking), you're not really going to have a spot open for Robert. And given that he's still a quality defender, he's not the type of player you're going to deploy as a remotely full-time designated hitter. You could, perhaps, make an argument for Laureano serving as a rotational fourth outfielder while Robert slides into left. Such a move would greatly enhance the team's depth on the bench. It wouldn't be an illogical path for Preller in that sense. However, the second caveat of their interest makes such a path still unlikely. Robert is set to play next year at a $20 million price point, with a club option for the same in 2027. Roster Resource has the Padres currently projected to carry a $201 million payroll next season. That's a shade under the $211 million at which they finished last year, with the team expected to linger around the same number for 2026. Without the White Sox eating at least half the money owed to Robert, you're not staying at or under that number. Let alone the myriad additions this team still has to make to fill out the rotation and the bench beyond acquiring Robert. And those other needs shouldn't be overlooked in all of this, either. Acquiring Robert would represent more of a luxury as opposed to necessities that exist elsewhere on the roster. The team is without roughly 60% of a legitimate rotation and doesn't feature much support in terms of infield depth. Unless it were in the face of a Laureano trade that sets you up in either of those other areas, it becomes difficult to justify such a move when those glaring needs on the roster still exist. Ultimately, though, the reason that the sell becomes difficult is due to the fact that you're talking about a player who has fallen off a cliff in terms of production. Robert turned in that near-five WAR campaign in 2023 on the heels of a 38-homer, 129 wRC+ season. In the two subsequent years, however, he's gone for an average ISO of just .148 and a wRC+ of 84. Even with some defensive value still in the tank, there just hasn't been much on which to hang his hat with the bat. And that's on top of continued health issues, as Robert appeared in just 210 games between the two years. Even if one wanted to make a case that change of scenery from Chicago's South Side worked wonders for Gavin Sheets, this is a much larger gamble. You're not talking about a player coming in on a non-guaranteed contract, but one that would eat up a significant portion of the already-limited flexibility this team has. It's just too many factors to be ignored, and they all add up to a fairly questionable prospective pursuit. View full article

The San Diego Padres have clear areas of need to address this winter. They need additional power in their lineup. They need some additional depth on the bench. And above all, they need starting pitching. There's just one issue with a team like the Padres in possession of such obvious needs: they lack the resources to properly address them. Just about everywhere in the baseball world will tell you that the Padres currently sit at the bottom of any farm system ranking. That's regardless of publication. It's a standing wrought by A.J. Preller's years of aggression on the trade front, depleting not only the upper tier of prospects with which he can make notable trades but the depth as well. It's why we saw the type of trades we did at the deadline, when Preller had to send a high volume of prospects (six of them) to Baltimore in order to acquire Ryan O'Hearn and Ramón Laureano. Furthering the Padres' offseason issues is their uncertain financial future. We've known for the last handful of years that the organization was trying to rein in spending. But with ownership reportedly exploring a sale of the franchise, it stands to reason that it'll only get worse in the weeks ahead (despite the thought that they might hang around last year's figure). The compounding of those two ideas has led to very little optimism over the Padres properly addressing the apparent needs that they have on the current roster. Which is why Preller might have to get a little bit creative in doing so. Unfortunately for him, such creativity may mean depleting the roster's largest area of strength. No team in baseball was able to get as much out of their relief corps as the Padres in 2025. Their 7.6 collective fWAR paced all bullpens, along with their 3.06 collective ERA. Their 3.53 FIP trailed only Cleveland with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate that sat third among their comrades in relief. They were also a group adept at avoiding hard contact, with a Hard-Hit% that was behind only Cincinnati for the lowest in the sport (37.4 percent). And while the group lost closer Robert Suárez to free agency (via his opt-out), the fact that three or four names could handle ninth inning duty in his stead speaks to the depth of this group. Any of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada are capable of leverage innings. Jason Adam, too, once he returns from a ruptured quad. David Morgan showed that he's the next guy up for such a role, as well. That's five guys for essentially three innings of work. We're oversimplifying, of course, as matchups and injuries exist. But when you factor in Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, Bradgley Rodriguez, and new Padre Daison Acosta, there's a certain level of volume that exists here. Who's to say that Ruben Niebla and the pitching infrastructure couldn't work their magic in developing additional leverage arms on top of the five already on the roster? Regardless of the intricacies of the roster itself — and the makeup of the fortunate position the Padres are in with respect to their bullpen setup — it stands to reason that Preller should utilize such volume in order to add to the starting rotation. If he does, it's not as if every one of the five leverage arms would be available. We have to imagine Mason Miller is out, despite recent reports suggesting otherwise. With plenty of ninth-inning experience already to his credit, he's the most obvious name to assume Suárez's role as the team's closer. Even without that experience, that the team just gave up their top prospect in July as part of the package to acquire him makes it even less likely. As the lone lefty of the group, Morejon is also likely to be around for 2026 as well. Left-handed pitchers with upper 90s fastballs don't grow on trees, and Morejon's 97.7 MPH average sat in the 94th percentile last year. While he doesn't deploy his fastball-slider combo in a way that generates strikeouts in the way one might expect, he was in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity against (85.9 MPH) and in the 99th in Hard-Hit% (30.7). He appears destined for eighth-inning work in 2026. David Morgan is still pre-arbitration. Given the Padres' financial circumstances, that flexibility against the payroll will prove important from a player that can give you leverage innings. To say nothing of how his limited experience (47 1/3 major-league innings) would lead to a smaller return that becomes more difficult to justify. Adam can likely be eliminated as a part of this discussion as well considering the severity of his injury. While he should be back on the mound in early 2026, the quad is likely to pin down his value on the trade market. Which leaves Jeremiah Estrada as the most apparent trade candidate should Preller pursue this avenue. Estrada is exactly the type of high-upside reliever teams want for the late innings. He offers a 94th-percentile fastball (97.9 MPH average) and 98th percentile strikeout stuff (35.5 K%) wrought by a combination of that fastball, a changeup-splitter hybrid, and a slider. He's not entirely skilled at limiting hard contact, but that becomes less of an issue when you're missing as many bats as he does. His .247 wOBA against in high leverage was also his best figure among all leverage situations. In San Diego, Estrada is likely slated for the seventh inning. For another club that doesn't have this type of depth, he could serve as a primary setup option in the eighth or even as a closer. For the Padres, a combination of Morgan and Adam then slide into seventh-inning duty while the collection of Matsui, Peralta, et al handle the middle innings. It's a trade that Preller can afford to make on paper. Especially if it allows the organization to address their lack of pitching on the starting side. Whether or not Preller will utilize someone like Estrada to address the need, however, remains to be seen. Pitching in any form is the most coveted element for any big league organization, and it's a tough sell to deal from it when you're a contending club. Even if the cupboard is this barren from a starting pitching standpoint. There's an argument to be made that the Padres could be an exception considering their volume and their infrastructure, but you'd have to receive a certified part of your rotation in the return. Even with Estrada's upside, there's no guarantee you're getting that back. It's a perilous situation to navigate, the absence of meaningful starting pitching. But perilous circumstances aren't terribly new to the Preller or the Padres. Should he make a move, it's easy to imagine Estrada's the guy throwing baseballs for a different team next year. But you can never be sure of anything with Preller. View full article

While a need for starting pitching will grab headlines, we shouldn't forget that there is more work to do for A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres this offseason. Among their quieter needs this winter is the one that exists behind the plate. As things stand right now, Freddy Fermin will be the team's starting catcher in 2026. There isn't any reason to expect a change there, either. The team sent Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert to the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline. Given that both would be worthwhile depth arms in this rotation right now, the intent was always for Fermin to handle the top gig ahead of next season. Given the current roster construction, Luis Campusano will handle No. 2 duties. The team had been reluctant to give him much of a run due to some inefficiencies in working as a defensive catcher despite the upside he presents with the bat. Now out of options, the team has been forced into a scenario where they either give him run or look to move him. With top prospect Ethan Salas still a ways away, the backup spot is Campusano's to lose. Either way, the current duo looks to be an upgrade over the two the team started with last year when they brought Elías Díaz back on a one-year deal and signed Martín Maldonado to a non-guaranteed contract ahead of spring training. Neither provided much of anything on offense and each demonstrated various shortcomings defensively that negatively impacted the pitching staff. But even with a more formidable pair, there are some options that could allow the Padres to not only shore up their depth behind the plate but upgrade the roster depth, too. Names certainly abound, at least. Someone like Reese McGuire is a logical player that fits in here. McGuire turned in a strong framing season for the Chicago Cubs last year (3 Framing Runs) while providing steady power for a backup catcher (.218 ISO). Former Minnesota Twin Christian Vázquez doesn't give you that same pop, but has historically graded as a capable defensive backstop (2 Framing Runs in 2025). A name like Danny Jansen pops on the other side of the spectrum. His defensive output has taken a step back in recent years, but there's some decent offensive upside still within the context of that type of role. Even someone like Jonah Heim has a decent-enough track record (107 wRC+ in 2023) that you could pursue him for a one-year bounce back. Options aren't limited to the free-agent market, either. Escondido native Korey Lee is third on the Chicago White Sox's depth chart behind a pair of young catchers that the team is clearly prioritizing. The St. Louis Cardinals have a handful of options in something of a logjam they could seek to clear (Pedro Pagés, Yohel Pozo, Jimmy Crooks) in favor of even more depth within their minor-league system. The point is that there are options here for the San Diego Padres. Not that they're alone in such a pursuit, but when you're operating within a tight budget without much to trade in the way of prospects, you like that this type of volume exists, epecially considering the way it could impact the roster outside of the position. Let's say the Padres really are hesitant to give even backup reps to Campusano behind the plate. Rather than shoehorn him into a role for which he may not be well-suited, you bring in a new No. 2 catcher. From there, Campusano becomes more of a right-handed compliment as a designated hitter or first baseman for Gavin Sheets. He becomes the matchup play in a way that allows you to maximize his most important asset: the bat. It's a path toward the Padres improving their roster in a way that a team short on resources can actually pull off. At the very least, you want a veteran third-stringer in the organization so that you have that coverage. Even if Campusano is capable of holding down the spot behind Fermin, you're in a bad way should anything happen to them on the health front. So, even if it's a move made purely out of a depth pursuit rather than one that indicates a shifting role for Campusano, it's a necessary one for the Padres. Luckily, that volume exists. It doesn't have to be the priority at this point in the offseason. But it's not something we should overlook as the winter wears on. View full article

With Major League Baseball's Winter Meetings underway this week, there are certainly questions as to how active A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres stand to be. The needs are clear: The team needs supplementary offense, starting pitching, and relief depth. Resources, however, are limited in the face of a rumored exploration of a sale of the franchise and a farm system that sits at or near the bottom of just about every outlet's rankings. Which is why the pursuit of any meaningful addition is going to require the Padres to sacrifice from their big league roster more than they have in recent years. One name floating out in the trade ether at this point is Jake Cronenworth. We know that the team was getting calls on him prior to the trade deadline. The same is true now, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. We also know that among the team's long-term contracts, he offers the most reasonable for a team to fit into their payroll. His contract runs through 2030 and lives in the neighborhood of $12 million. This stands opposed to someone like Xander Bogaerts, whose contract runs through 2033 to the tune of more than $25 million a year. Of the team's position players, those are the two the team would likely be most willing to move, in contrast to names like Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, or Manny Machado. Cronenworth brings a level of versatility to his game and an approach that teams would love to add. While he's never replicated the power output he demonstrated back in 2021 (.194 ISO), his 13.4 percent walk rate stood as one of the best in baseball last season. The blend of approach and power, even if now only occasional, mixed with positional flexibility at a reasonable price point, could provide the Padres with an opportunity to bring in a starting arm that they're so desperately coveting at present. Perhaps a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates, starved for offense and always operating within a tight budget, could be a landing spot. Mitch Keller's name was out there at the 2025 trade deadline. He offers a mid-tier option capable of eating some innings. It's worth noting that the Pirates are also one of several teams that were recently linked to Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte. The Marte component becomes interesting because it indicates the market has a handful of teams looking to fill a spot at the keystone. The Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays are all teams that have been mentioned in connection with some level of Marte interest. Not all of those teams have the starting pitching the Padres desire, but they also don't all have a clear vacancy at second base either. More than anything, this speaks to the fact that teams that miss out on Marte (should he actually be moved) could pivot to Cronenworth as a suitable backup capable of providing some stability in the lineup. A team like Toronto could be interesting given their newly-found depth on the heels of signing former Padre Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce. Would someone like José Berríos fit into that Keller mold, where you get the contract through 2028 (at $24 million in the final two years) and hope for a bit more out of the upside? You get something of a middle-tier starter from a team with a rotation logjam while, in a roundabout way, not having to invest fully in a new contract. Teams like the Mariners or Rays certainly offer some organizational depth on the pitching front, as well. Either way, a potential shipping off of Cronenworth would appear to offer the most efficient path toward acquiring a starting pitcher. It's possible the team has to take on some salary, but Cronenworth's contract should help to offset things in a way that would make an acquisition less cumbersome against the payroll. Of course, then you have to reckon with the vacancy wrought by his departure. It's a complex situation, but the Winter Meetings present the Padres with an opportunity to earnestly begin their pursuit of a much-needed starting arm. Such an avenue could very well begin with trading their infield mainstay. View full article

There are few worse places to be in sports than organizational purgatory. That middle ground where you're not quite good enough to legitimately contend, but also not quite bad enough to begin the rebuilding process. The latest trade rumor from the Winter Meetings has the San Diego Padres barreling toward such a status. While nothing of note has unfolded quite yet (none of Pablo Reyes, Sean Boyle, or Ty Adcock count), the Padres have the look and feel of a team on the brink. Already working within financial constraints that have grown tighter in the years since owner Peter Seidler's passing, the reported exploration of a sale has only furthered growing concern over the team's ability to hang, financially, with their major-league counterparts. That's left just about everybody on the roster involved in a trade rumor of some kind at various points in the early stages of this winter. The latest case is starting pitcher Nick Pivetta. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported on the first day of the Winter Meetings that the team was listening to overtures on Pivetta and Jake Cronenworth. The latter is of no surprise, of course. We've long known that the team had taken calls on Cronenworth and that his contract could be the logical one to move among the bevy of long-term position players that the team currently rosters. There's plenty of logic to it. Pivetta's inclusion, however, necessitates an entirely different perspective. Pivetta's contract paid him just $2.5 million in 2025, but the number leaps up to $20.5 million next season. The team would then owe a remaining $32 million combined over the final two years of his deal. It all seems fairly reasonable when you consider the fact that Pivetta's coming off the best season of his career from a run prevention standpoint. Each of Pivetta's 2.87 ERA and 3.49 FIP were career bests, with the former checking in as his best mark by a wide margin. His 26.4 percent strikeout rate sat in the 78th percentile and his 6.9 percent walk rate was in the 69th. While the strikeout rate was a continued drop from his last two seasons, his walk rate did stand as the second-best mark of his career. Between preventing baserunners and garnering some good fortune on the batted-ball side of things (.235 BABIP), Pivetta was able to work around some less-than-desirable contact metrics (45.0 Hard-Hit%, 10.8 Barrel%). In any case, it was a strong year from the arm that wound up as the team's top starter for 2025. Which is why hearing his name in trade rumors is so distressing. It's not that the Padres need Nick Pivetta in order to contend. He's likely due for some very legitimate regression next season. You could even make an argument that the Padres selling high on Pivetta makes some degree of sense. The trouble is less about Pivetta's skill set and himself in a vacuum and more about what it means in the scheme of the larger narrative around this team. We already know the Padres are working within the confines of an ever-shrinking budget. This winter, though, reads as a little bit different of a vibe. There's more of an urgency to shed money and fewer prospects, despite both being important in bringing in players of note that would help this team realize their championship aspirations. Having a name like Pivetta in the trade mix speaks to that exact trouble, especially considering the state of the current roster. The Padres have virtually no starting pitchers to speak of. Dylan Cease is now a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. Michael King is poised to get a significant contract with a team not named the Padres in free agency. Yu Darvish is already out for all of 2026. Joe Musgrove is returning from Tommy John surgery. Pivetta represents the only legitimate starter on a 40-man roster sprinkled with names like Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron, and JP Sears. Ty Adcock and Kyle Hart don't quite count there, either. With the team set to keep Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and David Morgan in relief, it's Pivetta, a rusty Musgrove, and a collection of fringe starters comprising the rotation at present. That the Padres would be willing to trade their only presently-viable starter speaks to the trouble in which this organization finds itself. To trade a key component from such a dire position of need would signal to the rest of the league that the Padres are trending in exactly the wrong type of direction. Without the resources in the farm system to make a trade, the road toward improving the roster becomes narrower — potentially to the point of becoming impassible. The budget was already a dark cloud looming over the offseason for this team from the jump. Compounding that fact along with the team's lack of depth was already a concerning reality. But the involvement of their only viable starting pitcher in the rumor mill speaks to another level of darkness. It's not about Pivetta the pitcher. It's about the larger narrative, and A.J. Preller is clearly going to have his work cut out for him to fight back toward the other direction, or risk slipping into organizational purgatory before long. View full article

It's a storyline merely lurking in the weeds with so much offseason buzz floating around, but the Automated Ball-Strike challenge system (ABS) making its way to Major League Baseball next season will be at the forefront of our minds once it actually gets underway. And the pieces published thus far around its implementation lend themselves to some interesting questions related specifically to the San Diego Padres. Over at FanGraphs, Davy Andrews published a piece in which he explored framing in the age of ABS. After navigating some of the numbers and paradoxical thinking around how framing as a skill might coexist with ABS, he noted what was one of more cogent points in the still-young discussion around this development: The thought here is that catchers that are already good at framing are going to have their skills amplified. And considering the IQ that the position requires, the instinctive reaction required to challenge a called ball means it's not a surprise that they feature the higher overturn rates than hitters. Ultimately, teams that employ strong defenders behind the plate are going to feel an added benefit in the introduction of ABS. This, somewhat automatically, lends itself to questions about the Padres' eventual interaction with ABS. As of now, Freddy Fermin stands atop the depth chart for the Padres behind the plate. It's hard to imagine that changes in any meaningful way. Behind him, however, remains something of a question. Luis Campusano is in line for some run as the No. 2 given the absence of anyone else in the organization at present. Considering the prior reluctance to insert him in such a role, though, that side of it could certainly change. Either way, the assertion that good framers can be made better by ABS doesn't necessarily bode well for whatever shape the duo takes for San Diego. Fermin wasn't a particularly effective framer during his post-deadline time with the Padres. He finished with -2 Framing Runs and was largely ineffective in the shadows to which Andrews referred in the above excerpt. He graded out as exactly average in the top shadow (0 Framing Runs) and was at 2 Framing Runs to his left, but went -1 on the right and -2 on the bottom of the zone. Bear in mind the fact that that Baseball Savant's shadow doesn't exclusively consider inside of the zone, so we shouldn't expect Fermin to linger around that 90-percent mark. But his checking in as exactly average or below in the majority of the areas isn't a terrific development if we're to believe in the amplification of skill wrought by ABS. If there's a positive, it's that Fermin was a markedly better catcher in the bottom shadow (16 Framing Runs) and still above average to his left during his years with the Kansas City Royals. So, if he can find a marriage of his strengths between Kansas City and San Diego, the possibility exists that he can use ABS to his advantage. The more concerning part of this is Campusano. If ABS enhances the quality of good framers, then we're left with the belief that poor framers could become more exposed. He checked in at -9 Framing Runs between 2023 and 2024, including -4 in the top shadow and -8 to the left. There's a reason the Padres have been reluctant to insert him behind the plate. And if we're to believe this is a trend that could manifest next season, then it may certainly be worth exploring a transition to platoon first base and bench work, rather than as a regular catcher. Either way, as exciting as the prospect of ABS has the potential to be, it's not painting a terrific picture for the Padres at the present moment. In separate work cited by Andrews' article at FanGraphs, Tom Tango examined challenge probability by utilizing data available from the 2025 minor league season (where ABS was implemented for the full year). His model provided something of a baseline for what level of aggression we could see from hitters and catchers alike, with the following standing out: The psychological side of this is also going to be fascinating. Catchers that are quality framers carry that IQ with them. It would also be easy to assume that because quality framing is fairly black-and-white (courtesy of analytics), those that are good framers know they are good framers. Could those who struggle on the framing side be more reluctant to challenge with knowledge of their own shortcoming? It's impossible to project that, but the situational and skill-set side is going to be a tremendous aspect about which to speculate as far as underneath-the-surface factors go. We're still a long way off from this meaning too much for the Padres. They have an offseason to work with each backstop and could add another catcher that helps their case here. But the early indicators aren't off to a terrific start. For a shallow pitching staff that is going to need as much help as possible, this is suddenly an area that the Padres may need to address in short order. View full article