Randy Holt

In general, the San Diego Padres are always a team to watch for intrigue during a transactional period. Whether it’s the signing of Manny Machado during the 2019 offseason, the acquisition of Juan Soto in the summer of 2022, or any of the myriad of notable signings, trades, and extensions that have happened before, during, and after, A.J. Preller always gives us a reason to divert our attention to San Diego when there are moves to be made. Such was not the case this winter. A combination of budget constraints wrought by said prior activity and an uncertain ownership situation left Preller to address the team’s needs more on the margins than confronting them directly. There were, of course, exceptions to that. Michael King was brought back on what is essentially a one-year deal. South Korean standout Sung Mun Song adds a combination of offensive upside and versatility that the roster sorely lacked. Beyond that pair of moves, however, it’s been a glut of short-term or minor-league signings to make improvements toward another year of contention in 2026. The Padres have certainly signed names. Miguel Andujar was one of the more sought-after bench bats available, while the team was also quick to bring in Nick Castellanos upon his ouster from Philadelphia. Non-roster invitees like Jose Miranda, Samad Taylor, Pablo Reyes, and Nick Solak each feature a healthy bit of major-league experience. On the mound, it’s names like Germán Márquez and Griffin Canning playing on one-year pacts, while others such as Triston McKenzie, Marco Gonzales, and Walker Buehler were at one point very notable in the world of arms. Each of the latter three settled for a minor-league deal with the Friars this winter. That’s nearly a dozen names for only a couple of spots on the roster, with more opportunity existing on the pitching front. Without the resources to make a more dramatic move – whether it’d cost cash on the free-agent market or prospects via trade – this is the manner in which Preller had to build up his team. Will it work? Let’s consider, for a moment, what the Padres actually needed heading into this offseason. From a position player standpoint, they needed additional right-handed power and some depth off the bench. Last year’s lineup struggled to generate power (from either side, really) and failed to compensate effectively when players were out with an injury. They rotated out a tough cast of characters that included names like Jose Iglesias, Tyler Wade, Jason Heyward, and Yuli Gurriel. In their stead, Song will be the primary name off the bench. He can fill in at three infield positions as of now, with the possibility already floated that he could get work at first base and on the outfield grass. That helps immediately but is far from curing the bench problem. Andujar and Castellanos are in the mix on guaranteed deals. They both bring offensive upside to the plate, with Andujar doing so more recently. Their positional skill set – with Andujar capable of handling each of the four corners and Castellanos more limited to right field and, maybe, first base – will also help Craig Stammen to rotate out the two biggest positions of need: first base and designated hitter. They’ll combine with Gavin Sheets in forming that rotation. It remains to be seen how much of a factor the likes of Miranda, Reyes, or Taylor might be, let alone Solak. Miranda extends the corner dynamic, while Reyes and Taylor offer more support up the middle, perhaps in the stead of already-present options like Mason McCoy or Will Wagner. Given where the need existed, both in terms of the power dynamic and the positional depth chart, there’s a clear on-paper solution here wrought by the volume approach. The same is less clear on the mound. Márquez is on a guaranteed deal but has fought injury woes and a velocity dip over the last few seasons that have led to some abominable percentile outcomes. Canning, meanwhile, is coming off some of his best work but may not be ready for the season due to last year’s Achilles rupture. Walker Buehler did his best work back in 2021, but health issues have pinned him down before he was undone by performance woes in 2025. McKenzie was good more recently (2022) but has a similar track record as it relates to health and the declining performance that has resulted. What isn’t working in the Padres’ favor on the pitching side is the natural variance that is inherent to that position. There’s always a correlation between health, age, and performance in different ways. But that correlation does not appear to be impacting them as much on the position player side as it could on the mound. One would be perfectly justified to feel decent about the lineup and still feel like they’re floating in the abstract as it relates to their arms. And that’s really the conclusion that should be reached. There are only so many position players to go around in a given offseason, regardless of the market on which they are available. While Preller had to wait it out in order to address the needs, those at least appear to be settled in the on-paper sense. Even if it doesn’t work to complete fruition, the combination of handedness and positional flexibility aim directly at the shortcomings of last year’s group. How successful this approach will be for the pitching staff, however, remains to be seen. In general, it’s hard to be disappointed with the job Preller did with the limited framework in which he had to operate this winter against prior ones. While it may be hard to declare this year’s roster to be better than last year’s, steps were taken to address deficient areas. One imagines that such an intense volume should yield at least some positive dividends for the organization as the season progresses. View full article

For much of the winter, it was evident where the San Diego Padres needed improvement to their current roster. Such a statement held true for both sides of the ball, and while starting pitching grabbed much of the attention of the media and fanbase, building up depth in their lineup wasn't too far behind in terms of raw need. In the closing weeks of the offseason, A.J. Preller has largely managed to do that in the face of budget constraints and an uncertain organizational future. It began earlier this winter, when the team signed South Korean standout Sung Mun Song to a four-year deal. His versatility alone helped to extend the bench in providing support at multiple positions. While it took several weeks for additional supplementation of the roster, Preller was able to do so in the form of Miguel Andujar and Philadelphia castoff Nick Castellanos on a pair of one-year deals. On Monday, the team added Ty France on a minor-league deal for good measure (and Jose Miranda earlier this winter). It's a slate of players that complicates the overall construction but should help in areas where the Padres struggled in 2025. Last year's lineup struggled to generate power. They ranked only 28th in the league in ISO (.138) and 29th in hard-hit rate (37.8 percent). Their barrel rate, at 7.5 percent, was also among the league's worst (27th). Each of those figures was a touch worse against left-handed pitching, too. So, it was about adding not only power to the mix, but power that could aid in production against southpaws. How each of those names translates to supporting the Padres in their specific areas of need remains to be seen. None of the players noted are barrel merchants, but each does offer more success against lefties in their career than right-handers. Even considering the nuance of lineup construction against the type of opponents the Padres will see in 2026, there's enough volume here to consider how things might look in general. We know what the majority of the lineup will look like to start the year. The "locks" are as follows: Catcher: Freddy Fermin Second Base: Jake Cronenworth Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts Third Base: Manny Machado Left Field: Ramón Laureano Center Field: Jackson Merrill Right Field: Fernando Tatis Jr. That leaves first base and designated hitter as options through which the team's new additions could rotate. Which automatically presents us with a complication: Gavin Sheets. Sheets had previously been indicated as the player with the first crack at serving as the everyday first baseman. Now, however, you have at least four names in the mix that either have experience at first base (Andujar, Miranda, and France) or are working at the position to hold it down on at least a part-time basis (Castellanos). To say nothing of the possibility that Cronenworth could bounce over from the keystone while Song gets work at second base. This is all to say that first base might not nearly be the lock that one might have expected upon Stammen's prior declaration. If anything, it only adds to the flexibility that could exist as part of the new-look depth. There are some key elements to note about each name, though. Sheets profiles better defensively at first, but is not a plus-defender anywhere in reality. The same is true of Andujar and Castellanos. The former has handled each corner on both the dirt and the grass, while Castellanos is working to handle the right-side corners. No matter what, though, you're not getting upper-echelon defensive work. The situation is a bit different with France, in particular, among the non-guaranteed contracts, but we can only work with things that offer a little more certainty. As such, let's assume, for a moment, that the Padres are facing a right-handed starter. Each of Andujar and Castellanos have rather stark splits against said handedness. If the goal is to get Sheets in the mix, then the lineup might look something more like this: Catcher: Fermin First Base: Cronenworth Second Base: Song Shortstop: Bogaerts Third Base: Machado Left Field: Laureano Center Field: Merrill Right Field: Tatis, Jr. Designated Hitter: Sheets This scenario has plenty more nuance, however. If Stammen were inclined to rotate Machado into the DH spot, then you could get Song at the hot corner, Cronenworth back at second, and Sheets at first. Laureano doesn't have especially favorable splits against righties. Could this specific scenario be an area where Andujar or Castellanos — who at least offer a little bit of competence against right-handers — work into left field? We'll table that for now given how much it rides on in-season context. As for the configuration against southpaws, things might look more like this: Catcher: Fermin First Base: Andujar Second Base: Cronenworth Shortstop: Bogaerts Third Base: Machado Left Field: Laureano Center Field: Merrill Right Field: Tatis, Jr. Designated Hitter: Castellanos Again, nuance exists. The goal here is to eliminate Sheets and his career 56 wRC+ against left-handers entirely from the equation. Could this be an area where Luis Campusano gets into the mix, either behind the plate or as a designated hitter? Could Song prove more effective against lefties than Cronenworth? Does one of Andujar or Castellanos have the edge to a defensive role over the other? There's a lot of questions to be answered. None of this considers a split-neutral Ty France or a possible resurgence from Jose Miranda, either. It's a lot of bodies to be sorted in order to gain some level of consistency with the lineup that is desired by most players. For what it's worth, FanGraphs has the primary seven spots in the lineup anchored by the respective names for no less than 70 percent of the work at each spot. First base, meanwhile, has Sheets getting in at a 55 percent clip, with Castellanos at 18 percent and Andujar at 10 percent. France and Miranda are thrown five and one percent, respectively, amid their non-guaranteed deals. At designated hitter, Andujar is projected for the most work (34 percent), followed by Castellanos (23 percent), and Sheets (15 percent). While these are based only on projections, it does help to support the idea that much of the rotation we see in the lineup will come from one of those two spots, with room for Machado bouncing into the DH role and Song's versatility also taken into account in the distribution. Ultimately, though, it's kind of the ideal problem to have heading into the spring exhibition season. The Padres will use February and March to answer these exact questions. Determining Song's role, the defensive competence of Andujar and Castellanos, and whether either of France or Miranda deserve a spot in the mix are of the utmost importance. From there, it becomes a matter of how first base and the designated hitter spot will be utilized, or if you're looking at more of a pure matchup-based situation. As much of this lineup is settled, the volume of intrigue in those remaining areas is exceeded only by the volume of players creating it given Preller's recent involvement on the transaction list. View full article

There is a truth to the San Diego Padres that has been relevant since 2019: Manny Machado is the team’s most important player. Yes, this is a team that also employs the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. But Machado drives the bus, a responsibility wrought by his blend of offense, defense, and intangible qualities in the clubhouse. In general, that blend is not yet stale. Machado has remained an above average hitter by wRC+ in each year with the Padres, and his two most recent seasons have shown a significant bounce back from what was a down season in 2023. The defensive chops have waned in certain respects, but Machado remains largely in line with his career outputs in average, on-base percentage, and a number of the underlying rates and trends on the offensive side. With all that being said, the projections anticipate a dip in productivity from the bat of one Manny Machado in 2026. There are roughly five prominent projection systems that we’re considering here, all of which feature a slightly different way of evaluating players. Some favor veteran players and take playing time more heavily into consideration. Others are deep on Statcast data or other nuanced factors. In any case, here are how those five project Machado to perform in 2026: Model BA OBP SLG K% BB% wOBA wRC+ ATC .262 .323 .450 19.4 8.1 .332 113 OOPSY .264 .324 .456 19.7 8.1 .335 119 Steamer .268 .329 .465 19.5 8.1 .340 122 THE BAT X .260 .321 .455 19.3 8.2 .332 117 ZiPS .258 .321 .430 19.8 8.4 .324 111 First, the obvious: each of these projections offers a fairly similar outcome as to what to expect from Machado in 2026. That’s not terribly surprising given that he’s a veteran player with an extensive sample from which to choose. Nevertheless, it’s notable that Steamer – which tends to like veteran players – is higher on Machado, while ZiPs – which is heavily weighted by aging curves – is lower. Regardless, we’re within shouting distance of his norms regardless of metric. None of this seems entirely unreasonable given what Machado has continued to turn in over the past couple of seasons. There is one area, however, where Machado is coming up short: power. None of those slugging projections is especially favorable. If we isolated it to, well, ISO, where only extra-base hits are taken into consideration, we get the following (in order): .187, .192, .197, .195, .172. Again, Steamer likes him the most, and ZiPS isn’t a fan. This is the area, though, where we’ve seen Machado’s regular contributions start to fade. He’s had some absolutely torrid stretches in recent years; last July he followed up a .212 ISO month with a .283 clip. But it hasn’t been there on a remotely consistent-enough basis for a team that isn’t quite on a level with their peers in the power department. Age is the most likely factor for this decline. When one considers that alone, is there any reason to think that we may see Machado best the projections and start to regain some semblance of his old self in creating a more standard form of offensive impact? Interestingly, Machado’s percentile outcomes from 2025 are indicative of a player who was already doing just that: Machado still swings hard. Compound that with an upper-percentile barrel rate, and it’s no wonder he’s able to maintain such an elite Hard-Hit% at this point. One thing worth noting, too, is that Machado isn’t the type of player who needs to sit on one specific pitch type in order to drive the power side. He’s been versatile in each of his seasons with San Diego. What seems most notable there is actually his expected slugging. The xSLG for Manny Machado in 2025 was .495. It was .467 in 2024 and .465 in 2023. His true slugging read .460 in 2025 (.185 ISO). It was his lowest output in either measure of power since 2024. In the two most recent seasons before that (the noted 2023 and 2024 campaigns), his actual slugging percentage checked in at .462 and .472. So, in 2023, his expected and actual slugging percentage lingered around one another while in 2024, he actually outperformed the expected metric. To add to this perplexing trend, Machado hit the ball hard at a 51.5 percent rate in 2025, which exceeded each of the two previous seasons. His PullAIR% was also two percent higher in 2025 than it was in 2024. Yet, within all of that, Machado got worse outcomes in matters of slug last year when he should’ve actually showcased one of the best power outputs of his entire career based on what the data had to say. So, the question isn’t so much whether or not Machado can regain his power stroke, it’s whether the power will actually manifest in the way it’s supposed to based on Statcast’s own expectation. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to see that actually coming to fruition. Machado, obviously, plays his home games at Petco Park. That’s 81 games at a venue that ranked 27th in its Park Factor for overall offense, last in doubles, and 20th in home runs. Those overall numbers are almost exactly what you’d get if you isolated it to only right-handed hitters, too. Machado’s slugging percentage was 13 points lower at home than it was on the road last year. His ISO was 24 points lower, too. It’s not a problem inherent in Machado or his age, but rather one that exists in the park itself. This presents us with an interesting paradox. It’s actually good that Machado is being pinned down so heavily by his home environment in that it means that any decline at this point isn’t so much due to age. Of course, the other side of that is that it’s also extremely bad that his offense is being pinned down by his home environment because the Padres need every source of run production they can find. Perhaps things find a way to even out in 2026, but the Padres should, at least, hope that Machado can bring the stick on the road with him. At least they know that it won’t be for lack of trying in either setting. View full article

When the San Diego Padres traded for Mason Miller last year, the attention was (obviously, and entirely justifiably) squared on the acquisition of one of the hardest throwers in Major League Baseball. But there was also an underrated component of the trade that existed in the form of JP Sears. While not spectacular, there was a stable element that Sears could, in theory, provide to a team in need of future depth in the starting rotation. A steady arm who won’t reach free agency until 2029? That’s the kind of profile the Padres should seek to work into every trade that an ambitious executive like A.J. Preller likes to make. Across five starts with San Diego to close out 2025, however, the results weren’t quite there even for an arm with modest expectations. Sears threw 24 2/3 innings across five starts that culminated in a 5.47 ERA and even-worse 6.18 FIP. His strikeout rate sat at just 18.0 percent, while opposing hitters slugged .580 against the lefty. That ran the total body of work up to a 5.04 ERA, 5.21 FIP, and 0.4 fWAR across 27 total starts split between the Athletics and Padres. Perhaps unlike his comrade in the depth mix (Kyle Hart), however, Sears presents some intrigue. He’s never been a high-strikeout arm. It’s difficult to expect that with 15th percentile fastball velocity (91.9 MPH), anyway. Where Sears should, ideally, excel is in his ability to avoid walks and work his way around hard contact. JP Sears’ Stuff Sears, technically, works with seven different pitches. His most-used pitch is his four-seamer, which moves effectively in a horizontal fashion. The 11.9 inches of arm side run he gets out of it is actually better than comparable arms. He’s able to play each of the sweeper and changeup off it effectively, leveraging a relatively average sweeper against hitters of the same handedness and throwing his changeup to good effect against the other side. Having 16.5 inches of horizontal movement to the arm side — featuring a similar shape to that of his four-seamer — is an effective manner of doing business. Despite that, Sears is prone to flyball contact and lacks the upside with any pitch to generate whiffs. That led to opponents slugging .534 against the four-seam and .500 against the changeup. His sweeper was the only pitch to feature a positive run value, which feels logical given the effectiveness of that pitch against hitters of the same handedness as a general practice. Somewhat like the aforementioned Hart, Sears throws out of a shallow arm angle and works side-to-side. Pitchers who do so that also possess less upside are going to have a tougher time evading impact outcomes against good hitters in the absence of the changing of eye levels. Even through all of that, intrigue remains over what Sears could provide as a member of the staff in 2026. JP Sears’ Arsenal Sears’ arsenal is indicative of intent across his three primary pitches. Considering the volume of those three against the remaining four that he allegedly threw in 2025, it’s almost worth dismissing the rest as being mis-labeled due to their shape. Despite the minimal arsenal that persists as a result, there’s an argument that Sears’ pitch mix and subsequent usage suit him well for what he’s aiming to do. The four-seam is going to be a factor against hitters of either handedness. It moves in toward lefty hitters and away from the right-handed types. The issue is its location. Sears spent a lot of time squarely in the middle of the zone with that pitch, often using that pitch to get ahead early in counts. That was especially true upon his arrival in August where opposing hitters swung first pitch on the four-seamer 46.4 percent of the time. The issue there is that it’s his pitch where hitters found the highest rate of hard contact (46.0 percent) against a low whiff rate (20.5 percent). His horizontal movement allows him to evade genuinely terrible outcomes more than he probably should, but his presence up in the zone means a difficult needle to thread with it. What Sears does have going for him, though, is that the sweeper and change each play well off of it. The sweeper offers something in the vertical department, while the changeup is as close to a change in eye levels as he can establish in its working more down-and-in to right-handed hitters. The stuff can certainly be effective even with a limited ceiling. It’s just a matter of proper deployment. What Should JP Sears’ Role Be In 2026? Assuming full health early for Joe Musgrove, the Padres have three locks in their rotation to start 2026. If we assume that Randy Vásquez has the inside track courtesy of a strong finish last year, that leaves just one spot to start the year for Sears and a smattering of depth signings. Sears doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling. But the Padres are in a situation where they don’t really need it out of the backend of their rotation. They have a dominant bullpen, and one imagines that at least one or two of those depth signings may offer some volume in relief. What they seek as a result is stability. In his brief career at the top level, Sears had made strides in his percentile placement in both his walk rate and his hard-hit rate. That could help him to an early advantage in the race, as you know exactly what you’re getting out of the profile in mitigating a baserunning presence. To say nothing of the fact that he’s a left-handed thrower in a group full of righties. It’s difficult to envision someone such as Sears in a relief setting quite yet. A soft-tosser with more than two pitches can contribute to a starting staff in such a way as providing a stable, innings-consuming arm. If it’s not the Padres rotation out of camp, it’s likely the El Paso starting group for him in March and April. View full article

When the San Diego Padres signed Kyle Hart upon his return from the KBO ahead of 2025, it was a move that wasn’t met with a particular degree of fanfare. The former Boston Red Sox draftee had only appeared in 11 big league innings in the years since his 2016 selection, and the results were relatively uninspiring across his minor-league journey. Nevertheless, the team needed depth on the bump and it arrived in the form of Hart. It’s that very scenario that led to him being back in America’s Finest City ahead of 2026. Hart was able to earn a rotation spot out of camp last year. Save for a six-innings-no-runs-allowed performance against Colorado in April, however, he struggled to maintain his grip on such a role. Five of Hart’s six starts came before the end of the season’s first month, and he went on to make just 20 appearances overall. The results therein were not terrific. He finished with a 5.86 ERA and 5.18 FIP in a year that was indicative of negative value (-0.2 fWAR). He struggled to prevent home runs, with a 13.0 percent rate of flyballs that went over the outfield wall, while neither his strikeout or walk numbers – 20.7 and 7.3 percent, respectively – compensated for that effectively. Even amid such struggles, though, Hart earned a second contract in San Diego. He agreed to a one-year deal with a club option for 2027. The Padres knew they’d need depth, and Hart will provide it. How much time he actually logs at the top level, however, remains unclear. Kyle Hart’s Stuff Without much velocity of which to speak, Hart is a sweeper-driven pitcher; he threw it 33 percent of the time last season. The pitch was thrown far more to left-handed hitters (43 percent) than righties (29 percent), though. For the latter handedness, he incorporated a changeup at 20 percent of the time (a pitch he threw just a handful of times against lefties). There’s a sinker in the mix as well, with an even 22 percent being thrown to hitters standing in either box. The sweeper and sinker each have their benefits. The sweeper drew whiffs nearly 29 percent of the time last year, and both pitches pinned down opponents’ slugging to under .300. It’s when he begins to graduate outside of his two primary pitches that things start to become problematic. His change, in particular, was touched for a .625 slugging percentage in 2025. Part of Hart’s struggle is that, regardless of pitch, he works high: There’s decent horizontal movement on his two primary pitches. He gets 14.1 inches of horizontal break to his glove side with the sweeper and 16.7 inches of run to his arm side with the sinker. There’s very little vertical drop to speak of across the board, though, which represents a problem for a pitcher who doesn’t work with much velocity. Only his minimally used splitter garners anything in terms of vertical drop. In terms of run value, Hart does get positive results out of each of the sweeper (5) and sinker (2). There’s enough swing-and-miss with the former and effective groundball tendencies wrought by the latter to allow him to work within a framework that can find some success. The issue is when he starts to move outside of his comfort zone with the change and the rest of the crew. None of his other pitches bear a positive run value, with the changeup sitting at -4 on its own. Kyle Hart’s Arsenal There’s an argument to be made that Hart should shift his focus toward more of a two-pitch situation. The results are evident in the sweeper and sinker being effective pitches for him, somewhat courtesy of a lower arm angle. There’s a location factor that at least mildly explains his success as well. Not that Hart’s command is elite, but he’s at least able to utilize those pitches to seek the results that each pitch should, theoretically, see. Such is not the case with the others in his mix. With the changeup, there is an intriguing movement profile, but the results haven’t been remotely steady enough to consider it a factor quite yet. Such an argument exists in a world where Hart ends up as more of a one-inning reliever than even as a long man, let alone a starter. It’s very difficult to find success in volume with only two effective pitches. Unless we see some evolution in the arsenal, though, that may very well be the role for which he’s best-suited. What Should Kyle Hart’s Role Be In 2026? Even with a Padres rotation that sits as shallow as this group ahead of the upcoming season, it’d be really difficult to justify a rotation spot out of the gate for Kyle Hart. You’d even be hard-pressed to find an argument that he’s destined for the bullpen, considering where the rest of the group stands. The relief corps is where the Padres actually have some depth with which to work. Given that, it would appear that Hart’s best shot at regular work within the organization will, once again, come with El Paso. It would at least give him an opportunity to hone the arsenal and discover some command of the secondaries. If he can do that, then there is a path toward contributions at the top level as a backend starter. In the meantime, however, the floor remains simply too low to justify a spot in either the rotation or the bullpen, regardless of how thin the former looks. View full article

The Milwaukee Brewers made something of a strange trade, sending starting third baseman Caleb Durbin and two utility players to the Boston Red Sox for a package of three players that included versatile infielder David Hamilton. Given that such a trade creates a new void for the Crew at third base — and the fact that Hamilton's more of a reserve type than a starter — the San Diego Padres could be primed to take advantage. Milwaukee no longer has a third baseman. Not only that, they traded a pair of players who could have filled in at the position for a time in Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler. There is no firm conclusion as to what things could now look like at the hot corner, though the possibility exists that they flip shortstop Joey Ortiz back over to third and let newly-acquired prospect Jett Williams handled duties at the six. That's a lot to put on a prospect with no big league experience, however. Enter the Padres. The Friars don't figure to be a team especially lauded for their depth outside of the bullpen. But position players, they have. And with the team desperately in need of some help on the starting pitching front, there's a logical connection to be made between the two organizations. It's not a terribly obvious fit. The Padres have Gavin Sheets, Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, and Manny Machado set to start across their infield. Sung Mun Song figures to spend time at all four spots, and Miguel Andujar will occasionally fill in at a corner. They also have the likes of Mason McCoy and Will Wagner on the 40-man roster and José Miranda coming to camp on a minor-league deal. It's a lot of bodies, even if it may not be much in the way of certifiable depth. However, such volume does lend itself to the idea of attempting to capitalize on the Brewers' current positional deficiency. Is there a world where the Brewers — who spun Caleb Durbin into a quality defender within a calendar year — would be interested in doing the same with Jake Cronenworth? It might be a tougher sell in a lineup that's already heavy on left-handed hitting, but they're also a team that likes versatility. A transition to third while maintaining the ability to hang at each of the three infield spots could be enticing. His upside at the plate compared to the Padres' other options in this imaginary world also represents the opportunity to get the most effective return. Even McCoy or Wagner could have their purpose in the hypothetical game. You're not going to net one of the top rotation options, but perhaps there's a framework to be generated around one of the more fringe types currently on the Milwaukee staff. The Padres are in a position where another team's fringe is their full-time starter, after all. Given that volume exists on both ends of this these fake trade talks, though, it makes projecting anything remotely finite nearly impossible. We're merely offering a more general scenario. On the Brewers' end of things, they're not necessarily looking to move a starter just as the Padres aren't looking to move a position player. Intriguing names exist, however. Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski are each, of course, not likely to be considered here; Woodruff costs too much for the Padres' books, while Misiorowski was one of the genuine breakouts of 2025. Robert Gasser and Logan Henderson each have upside, but it's also possible that the Brewers are more interested in retaining Brandon Sproat and giving one of the two a change of scenery to accommodate the arm they acquired from the New York Mets. Chad Patrick represents more of a back-end option that could maybe be had to eat some innings. Is Quinn Priester too valuable to do the same, or could the Padres make something work there, too? Despite so much uncertainty in what a framework would look like, it's worth noting that the two organizations also have a transactional history. The two sides came together on the trade that brought Josh Hader to San Diego back in 2022 and, prior to that, San Diego acquired Trent Grisham and Zach Davies from Milwaukee in 2019. A move here may lack the magnitude of either deal (particularly the 2019 agreement), but one can't completely underestimate such a factor in trade matters. The only logical picture to be created here is that there is a broad fit. The Padres need arms, and the Brewers need some help on the positional side. What the intricacies of that all look like is anybody's guess. The thing that is clear, though, is that there is a fit and there is a history. With the team running out of time to build ahead of the upcoming season, perhaps there's something to the abstract that could manifest into something more concrete in the near future. View full article

With their signing of Miguel Andujar to a one-year contract, the San Diego Padres have essentially fortified the position player portion of their 2026 roster. Eight of the starting nine are in place, with Andujar and Sung Mun Song representing at least half the bench contingent. If we assume that Luis Campusano and Bryce Johnson handle the backup catching and outfield duties, respectively, the reserves are almost entirely squared away. From there, it's a matter of whether we'll see Will Wagner or Mason McCoy on the active roster to start the year or if someone like Jose Miranda forces his way into the picture with a strong spring. Beyond that, we're not looking at a lot of wiggle room on the bench. With that in mind, where should A.J. Preller be turning his attention with the little bit of remaining time he has this offseason? We can think of at least three areas. Starting Pitcher This is easily the most obvious positional need, to the point where it may be the most glaring need for any would-be contender throughout the Major League Baseball landscape. The Padres have Nick Pivetta and Michael King as locks atop their rotation. Joe Musgrove is reportedly a full-go as the No. 3 starter, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be out of the gate in his return from Tommy John surgery. Beyond that trio, though, things remain incredibly murky. Randy Vásquez could be primed to get work as a fourth or fifth starter given how he ended last year. After Vásquez, the list reads Matt Waldron, Sean Boyle, Triston McKenzie, Kyle Hart, JP Sears, Marco Gonzales, and Miguel Mendez, in some order. There's some bounce-back potential and some upside elsewhere among the mix of 40-man and non-roster guys. But a team that is as steady as the Padres in other areas of their roster could use some actual stability to fill out the middle of their rotation. Old friend Nick Martinez remains an option on the free-agent market. As do names like Lucas Giolito and Zac Gallen, in addition to a host of past-their-prime arms that could eat at least a few innings but with little guarantee of being able to do so. The options at this point are thin, but there's a strong argument for Preller to add at least one more surefire starter to the group before pitchers and catchers report next week. Backup Catcher Despite the fact that the position group appears settled, the chance remains that Preller could seek to find an alternative to Campusano to supplement Freddy Fermin behind the dish. Campusano's defensive work was an abomination the last time we saw him at the major-league level, and it may behoove the Padres to seek out someone that offers a bit more stability behind the plate. We won't see Ethan Salas break camp with the team as a backup, but the Padres also have Rodolfo Durán, Blake Hunt, and Anthony Vilar in camp as non-roster invitees. Names like Jonah Heim, Christian Vázquez, and Matt Thaiss are still available via free agency, and none would be cost-prohibitive. Not that they're particularly inspiring in their glove work, but there's at least the factor of providing defense above what Campusano offers. Perhaps there's an earnestness present in giving Campusano the first legitimate shot before the non-roster guys get an opportunity. Or maybe Preller just hasn't been able to agree to terms with one of the free agents. Either way, a surefire contingency behind the plate in the event of a Fermin injury seems like a necessity. It would allow Campusano to get some work as part of a short-side platoon at first base or designated hitter and Stammen to get his bat into the lineup rather than having to worry about his defense. Bullpen Depth This is an area where the Padres are above many of their peers across the big-league landscape; a back end of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, and David Morgan is the envy of most teams. San Diego also has a number of bridge options to get it into the later innings, including Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta, and Ty Adcock, among others. That doesn't mean Preller shouldn't look to further the depth, however. Such a need is borne out of the lack of certainty in the rotation. In 2025, the Padres ranked ninth in innings thrown by relief pitchers, and that was with Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish in the mix at various times. With even less stability from their starting group, those bridge guys, in particular, become absolutely essential if the team is hoping to preserve its bullpen dominance again in 2026. Considering how many notable names are still permeating throughout the free-agent waters, it'd hardly be a surprise to see additions carry on into the spring exhibition slate. The Padres have built up a certain degree of volume, but it also lacks certainty. Maybe Preller takes a bit more of a wait-and-see approach at the outset of camp before pursuing from those that remain. Either way, it's difficult to imagine such an active executive doesn't have at least one more move of note before 2026 officially gets underway. Smart money says that, if one happens, it comes from one of these three groups. View full article

The San Diego Padres finally made the addition to their bench that had been coveted since the start of the offseason, signing Miguel Andujar to a one-year, $4 million contract. Considering the context of the roster and the team's finances at present, Andújar represented the ideal target among those that remain available in free agency. Andújar is coming off his best season since 2018. That year, he posted a 3.9 fWAR with the New York Yankees and finished as a finalist for the American League Rookie of the Year award. Such a breakout came courtesy of a .297/.328/.527 line that featured a .230 ISO and 129 wRC+. It also still stands as his peak, as the subsequent seasons were spent battling injury and toiling in the minor leagues with a handful of different organizations. After creeping his value back up to above average in 90 plate appearances with Pittsburgh in 2023 (105 wRC+), Andújar was able to maintain that level of performance in about a half-season's worth of work with Oakland the following year. In the latter, however, his power vanished to the tune of a .093 ISO. Nevertheless, the Athletics saw enough to let him hang around in 2025 before he was eventually traded to Cincinnati. All told, his 2025 season came with a 125 wRC+ and career-highs in batting average and on-base percentage. The power still wasn't back at his pre-2024 levels, but did show signs of reemerging at a .153 ISO figure. Despite the fact that he remained on the market at this late stage of the offseason, the reports of a number of teams interested in adding an effective bench bat go back several weeks. The Padres' current roster situation made the addition of Andújar kind of an essential one. This is a team that, on paper, has significant upside at the plate. They also lack depth in that ability to contribute on offense. With news that Gavin Sheets will get the first crack at holding down first base and designated hitter likely to be rotated out rather than feature a mainstay, the team was left with the likes of Sung Mun Song, Will Wagner, Mason McCoy, Luis Campusano, and Bryce Johnson behind their starters. Outside of Song, though, the offensive profiles of the remaining bench options read as uninspiring. With Song himself being a lefty, there was an imperative on adding some right-handed depth. Enter Andújar. Last year's group was in the bottom half of the league against southpaws, posting a collective 96 wRC+ that ranked 17th. On the power side, however, their .130 ISO sat only 23rd. Andújar should contribute massively in this regard, as his splits heavily favor matchups against left-handed pitching. He went for a 171 wRC+ against pitchers of that handedness last year against a 108 mark vs. righties. His ISO, at .189, was 50 points higher. In general, he doesn't walk much, with a 4.4 BB% in his career, but he also doesn't strike out either (15.5 career K%). That should fit the Padres well, too, given their penchant for contact over punchouts. The question of how Andújar will be utilized within this lineup isn't too difficult to solve, as a result. One imagines that he'll get plenty of run in the designated hitter slot against pitchers of the left-handed variety. Should Craig Stammen choose to deploy him in the field, though, he has some versatility to his name. Andújar logged time at each corner spot last year; he spent 13 innings at first base, 237 at third, 217 in left field, and 22 in right field. He's not particularly adept at the defensive work (he was either average or well-below at each spot), but the utility should prove valuable in the event that Stammen aims to get a regular off their feet for a day off. Even with this signing, Song will be the primary utility option off the bench. If the team can expand his utility to first and some work on the outfield grass, it'll only add to versatility that served as a centerpiece behind the appeal of his signing. But Andújar won't be far behind in his usage. Whether it's as the designated hitter or part of the rotation that figures to be incorporated regularly, he's not going to be wanting for playing time. For what it's worth, FanGraphs projects Andújar for a shade over 20 percent of the playing time at first, five percent at third, and another five in left. Baseball Prospectus has him living primarily as the DH (45 percent) and as a first base supplement (25 percent), with only another five that'll be spent in left field. The Padres should consider themselves somewhat fortune to be able to bring in this type of player at this stage of the offseason. Despite whispers that A.J. Preller had been working on something big around the Winter Meetings, it's been a while since they'd done something of note beyond a decent volume of minor-league signings. Andújar immediately changes the complexion of the roster and helps to quell prior concerns over the team's lack of depth on the positional side. View full article

With Gavin Sheets (mostly officially) set to take over as the San Diego Padres' starting first baseman for 2026, it appears that one of their two remaining lineup questions has been answered. The other, however, remains an unsolved riddle. Once the Padres exercised Ramón Laureano's club option, they settled seven of their nine positions in the lineup. Only first base and designated hitter were left to determine. With the news that Sheets will get the first run at the former, how the team will approach the latter now becomes a matter of some conjecture. Now on the cusp of pitchers and catchers reporting to Arizona, two paths lie before them. For one, there's a chance the Padres attempt to fill the position completely internally. Given how quiet things have been on the transactional front, this one would appear to be the most likely. It's also the most complex. At one point this winter, it might've been worthwhile for the team to consider deploying Luis Campusano as part of a regular DH rotation. His upside lives almost exclusively in his bat and, in the absence of other options, it appeared that he finally had a path to regular plate appearances. That could have even extended to a platoon, of sorts, with Sheets. With the latter now assumed to be getting regular field work, that idea dissolves. To say nothing of the fact that Campusano still projects to be the team's backup catcher. That's a guy more likely to start on the bench rather than elsewhere considering the logistical nightmare wrought by something happening to Freddy Fermin mid-game. With that idea out, the first path is paved for Craig Stammen to rotate someone new in depending on matchups and a desire to create partial off-days. Sung Mun Song's presence certainly helps in this regard. He can play any of second base, shortstop, or third, and the team plans to get him some additional run at first and in the outfield. Such utility could be used heavily to their advantage in getting veterans off their feet in the field on occasion. This is particularly true for Manny Machado, whose body has been through plenty of tribulations and who features declining defensive metrics. The same could be true of the outfield, where Bryce Johnson presents at least a stable glove in the event that Stammen wanted to give Fernando Tatis Jr. or Jackson Merrill a bit of a blow on a given day. There is a way to execute such a plan in a way that doesn't alter the lineup too much on a daily basis, as well. If it's Song, for example, rotating primarily through the group, then you hold his spot and simply rotate positions on an as-needed basis. It's still a good deal of roster juggling, but could allow the Padres to give their most important bats more frequent rest, at least on a halfway basis. The alternative to the expected route is to pursue a bat from outside the organization. This might be someone like Rhys Hoskins or Miguel Andujar on the free-agent market. Hoskins has become nearly unplayable in the field while Andujar at least has some versatility in a bat that bounced back in 2025. If the Philadelphia Phillies were willing to eat enough money, Nick Castellanos could be a somewhat realistic option, too. Such a route has appeal in the form of an additional bat for a team that probably needs more supplemental offense. Considering we don't know where the team's financial expectations are at this stage of the winter, however, it's also a much more difficult route to see to fruition than the expected one. With the clarity arriving on Sheets' role, though, there's an opportunity for the Padres to pursue the same on the designated hitter front. Even with the team appearing content to run things out with the status quo, it remains difficult to underestimate A.J. Preller's willingness to do anything he can to improve the roster. With the window to do so waning, we should see the same level of clarity emerge at DH in the coming weeks. View full article

The 2025 San Diego Padres saw six different players log time at first base. If Craig Stammen and Gavin Sheets have their way, that number will come down quite a bit in 2026. Last year's iteration of the Padres rode out Luis Arráez for 117 games, Ryan O'Hearn for 27 games, and each of Sheets and Jake Cronenworth for a baker's dozen. Yuli Gurriel got four games worth of time, while Connor Joe appeared once in his brief time with the organization early in the year. Of those names, only Sheets and Cronenworth remain in the mix now. Comprehensively, the results were not terrific. The Padres' 1.6 fWAR at the cold corner ranked 15th in the league. Their cumulative wRC+ was 109, which sat 14th. Where issues arose was on the power side. A position that traditionally favors a power profile checked in at just 23rd on the Padres' end of things, as they finished the year with a .138 isolated power figure. Things were even worse on the defensive side, where the team's -6 Outs Above Average finished in 24th. The combination of uneven performance and various departures, both during and after the season, led to questions about the shape the position could take ahead of 2026. Without a designated hitter and in need of some extra depth in the outfield corners, there was an immediate assumption that Gavin Sheets would fill the former role primarily and fill in at either corner or at first base on occasion. Cronenworth, meanwhile, was expected to take back over at the keystone and perhaps move a bit in either direction upon the arrival of Sung Mun Song in San Diego. Either way, the position lacked someone of a visibly full-time vintage. This weekend's Fan Fest in San Diego appeared to put some of those questions to bed with new manager Craig Stammen asserting that Sheets would get the first run at serving such a role. After a career rebirth in San Diego last year and another two seasons before he hits free agency, is it possible that Sheets might actually offer some stability at first base? The profile is certainly there, at least. Sheets turned in above-average offensive production for the first time since he was a rookie, with a 111 wRC+ that was aided by some of the more sustained power output the team had last year. His .177 ISO was also his highest since he posted a gaudy .256 figure back in 2021. Both the strikeout (19.6 percent) and walk (8.1 percent) rates were steady, and a career-low chase rate indicated that there was some refinement occurring in his approach. From an offensive skill set, Sheets certainly has the chops to hang at the position. The primary question will come with the glove. A quality defensive first baseman improves the entirety of the infield defense. The Padres have posted -14 OAA at first base over the last three years, which ranks 21st over that span. In an ideal world, the regular first sacker is someone who can make life easier for the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Cronenworth. It remains to be seen, though, if a player with fewer than 800 innings across five seasons can be the one to do it. Much of Sheets' work at first came in 2023 and 2024 with the Chicago White Sox. In the former campaign, he posted -2 OAA in about 140 innings before following it up with another -2 in roughly 360 frames the following year. Last season, however, he was actually above average, with 1 OAA in 99 innings. Perhaps there's something in his positioning — which moved a touch deeper and at a narrower angle — that was able to provide a bump in the defensive performance. Should that defensive growth continue to manifest into 2026, the Padres find themselves in a much more stable position than they might've been otherwise. It seems necessary more now than ever, too. With no visible trade options and defensive quality lacking in what remains on the free-agent market, there's a good deal of pressure for this to work. The offensive should play, at least. It's just a matter of the defense continuing to follow suit. View full article

Given that he threw as many major-league innings in 2025 as he did in each of 2023 and 2024 combined, it wouldn't have been hard to call the former a career season for San Diego Padres starting pitcher Randy Vásquez. And in many ways, it was. After 20 starts in his first full season in San Diego, Vásquez made 26 starts (28 appearances overall) for the Padres last year. His ERA checked in at 3.84 (4.85 FIP). He improved each of his groundball and home run rates by roughly two percent — 40.1 & 8.3, respectively — while continuing to thrive via avoidance of quality contact. His 39.3 Hard-Hit% landed in the 60th percentile. Of course, when you're talking about a pitcher whose skill set lives on the margins due to minuscule whiff counts and occasionally shaky command, there's going to be variance within the results. Such was the case with Vásquez. From a month-to-month standpoint, Vásquez had some stretches where he was very good for the Padres in 2025. May, July, and September each stand out, as he went every-other-month in his ability to find success. May's 28 innings of work came with a 2.89 ERA and a strikeout bump from just 8.2 percent in April to 18.8 percent. He posted a 2.79 ERA in 19 innings in July, with a .289 opposing wOBA that was 20 points lower than even his finest work in the months prior. September, though, is what has many optimistic about what Vásquez's future in this rotation could look like. In 22 1/3 innings to close the year, Vásquez pitched to a 3.22 ERA, with a .260 opposing wOBA, a season-high 21.3 K%, and a 29.9 percent hard-hit rate. As should be expected given what happened in between those three individual months, there's an enigmatic quality to the 2025 output from Vásquez. The month that featured his best ERA also featured his highest amount of hard contact allowed and a season-low strikeout rate. In August, meanwhile, he posted his highest whiff rate and lowest walk rate but had an ERA over eight. Of course, that came across just seven innings of big-league work. Nevertheless, there's a lot going on there for a pitcher who was already somewhat difficult to figure out in terms of future projection. In order to try and predict his future output, though, it requires one to redefine expectations given where Vásquez was supposed to be based on his prospect profile versus where he actually is. The following is his writeup from MLB Pipeline back in 2023, when he was a prospect with the New York Yankees: Last year's iteration of Vásquez saw him utilize (technically) seven different pitches. He led the way with three different fastballs: a four-seam, a sinker, and a cutter. The four-seam was primarily deployed against left-handed hitters while the sinker was for the righties. The cutter, meanwhile, was distributed in a nearly identical fashion regardless of handedness. His curveball took on more of a sweeper shape against righties while left-handed hitters got a more standard curveball as it took on more of a vertical shape. The actual fastball velocity, though, sat at just 93.3 MPH (32nd percentile). While he was able to generate the type of spin noted in the scouting report in either form of his curve, he was also unable to generate much of anything when it came to whiffs. The more standard curveball got just a 15.8% swing-and-miss rate, while the sweeper was a bit higher at 25.2 percent. His overall 15.7 Whiff% landed in the first percentile among all qualified pitchers in 2025. This is also where we see some of the monthly variance come into play. The curve was rarely near the top of his whiff rates, while the sweeper was there early before falling behind: It's that type of graphic that speaks to a couple of issues with Vásquez, his arsenal, and his usage. For one, the pitch shape differs vastly depending on handedness. A second is that his command simply is not good enough for that type of differentiation. The following is his movement profile from 2025: None of the work here is indicative of a pitcher who has full command of his arsenal, expansive as it may be. That he's this all over the place in his ability to garner swings and misses, mitigate hard contact, and locate pitches with regularity is a symptom of more overarching command woes. It's why we see such intense change between individual months. There is, however, something encouraging to take away from the end of the season. Over the last three months of the campaign, there were trends in his usage that indicated he might be settling into something more consistent with the way he deploys his pitches: The changeup falling out of the rotation is an encouraging start; Stuff+ rates it as his worst offering. The four-seam becoming his primary fastball of choice also seems wise. In the two years prior, Stuff+ had that as an above-average pitch before the really heavy mixing began in 2024. The curveball-sweeper dynamic is fine to stay if the command is there, since that appears to be a shape based on handedness. Ultimately, it looks as if Vásquez began to simplify toward the end of the year, and it's such simplification that could be key to him beginning to stabilize in 2026. Which would be kind of an essential development for him in the upcoming year. The Padres are working with Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and a returning-from-Tommy-John-surgery Joe Musgrove atop their rotation. There isn't much to speak of on the depth front. Randy Vásquez becoming a stabilizing presence capable of eating innings would be tremendous for a shallow group. Unfortunately, given his prior month-to-month woes, we may not know if these trends are real until the temperature starts to rise this season. View full article

To say that outfielder Nick Castellanos will not be a member of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2026 isn't any kind of speculation. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski already indicated as much early this winter and has reiterated it within the last handful of days. Whether it's by a trade — wherein the team would have to eat a decent chunk of the $20 million owed to him in 2026 — or an outright release as a desperate measure, Castellanos will be playing his home games somewhere other than Philadelphia this season. Should it be San Diego that steps in as the next destination for the veteran hitter? After a pair of seasons where he combined for 52 home runs, Castellanos is coming off some of the worst work of his career in 2025. His slash line read just .250/.294/.400, with a 90 wRC+ and even worse defensive metrics (-12 Outs Above Average). The compounding of meager production at the plate and serving as a non-viable presence on the outfield grass led to a career-worst -0.6 fWAR. Now, a year ahead of free agency, Castellanos is presumed to be finding a change of scenery in the coming weeks. That comes as no surprise on the merits of the performance alone, but also the presence of numerous reports that Castellanos took umbrage with manager Rob Thomson's use of him in 2025. When one considers the myriad issues the Phillies have had with their players in recent months (remember the Bryce Harper "not elite" drama?), it becomes a bit more difficult to take Castellanos' struggles completely at face value. If we expand his body of work to his entire career, Castellanos is a .272 hitter with decent power (.193 ISO) who also doesn't walk much (6.2 BB%). His career wRC+ sits at 109. He's prone to bouts of streakiness, but compensates well enough in the high points to make up for the low points and lack of on-base percentage. He could also be exactly what the San Diego Padres seek at this stage of the winter. Isolating Castellanos' output to pitcher handedness, he's gone for a 127 wRC+ and .215 ISO against lefties. Against right-handed pitching, meanwhile, those numbers sit at 103 and .185, respectively. In short, the right-handed swinger holds up well against pitchers of the same handedness but finds his real value when he's matched up against the opposite. An opposite which the Padres just so happen to need in their lineup. San Diego ranked 17th in the league in wRC+ against southpaws in 2025 (96) while sitting closer to the back of the rankings on the power side (their .130 ISO ranked 23rd). While they didn't strike out against left-handed arms, they did make the lowest rate of quality contact against pitchers from that side, as well. For his money, Castellanos posted a hard-hit rate roughly 12 points higher in 2025 than the team's collective against left-handers. From a skill set standpoint, he certainly looks like the kind of player in which A.J. Preller should have interest. The issue lies in the logistics. At $20 million, it's difficult to see the Padres ponying up the cash to pay Castellanos given their current payroll constraints. While the expectation is that the Phillies will eat significant money, the unknown of how much money makes it difficult to project how realistic such a deal is. The return for a player that an organization is openly set on dealing isn't a concern so much as the finances. So in this case, the Padres' lack of depth on the farm isn't the issue. It's purely the money. Then, there's the roster fit. The Padres could have some combination of Gavin Sheets, Luis Campusano, and Sung Mun Song rotating as part of the bench, perhaps with Bryce Johnson filling out the foursome. Sheets can play first and outfield. Campusano can fill in behind the plate and at first. Song may get some outfield time beyond his utility infielder status. Johnson can competently play all three outfield spots. Considering the Padres already have a full starting outfield and the likes of Sheets and Campusano to rotate through first base and designated hitter, are they willing to deploy limited resources for a player that might end up representing something of a redundancy (even if said redundancy possesses the upside to be better than what is already present)? Even with the reasons to say "no," it's hard for the Padres to justify not at least exploring a deal to acquire Nick Castellanos. Especially if it reaches a point where the Phillies are eating a majority of the money or outright release him before the season starts. Their need for secondary offense and right-handed hitting is no secret. They're not in a position to turn away a good hitter, regardless of the contextual baggage with which they come. View full article

While the initial report of a retirement announcement was met with some apprehension on his part, it appears that San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish may be getting closer to calling it a career. At the very least, it's possible that he walks away from his current contract via an early termination and buyout as he works his way back from an October internal brace procedure. In either direction, it would appear that there's set to be some certainty over Darvish's future in the coming days or weeks. There were whispers early this offseason that he was considering retirement on the heels of this surgery and five separate trips to the injured list over the last two years. While it would be difficult for him to walk away from the money owed to him through 2028, Darvish has generally been extremely transparent about where his body and mind are in relation to performance. So, it's no surprise that this situation, while not official, is already in front of the public. Should Darvish choose to retire or accept a buyout from the Padres, it would be a boon for them financially. He carries an $18 million average annual value over the next three years (though the actual salary is a touch lower depending on the year). A team with a handful of position player contracts that carry into the 2030s will likely accept any relief it can get on the books. At the same time, getting clarity on Yu Darvish would also present a fairly intense challenge to the Padres, who are trying to establish their future in the starting rotation. The Padres were always going to be without Darvish for 2026. That situation, on its own, has left them scrambling to find pitching for a rotation that remains unstable just weeks out of pitchers and catchers reporting to Arizona. If we looked to the point at which Darvish was expected back, though, things get even more complicated. Under contract for 2027 are Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove, the latter of whom will be entering the last year of his contract. Michael King has a player option for each of 2027 and 2028, lending itself to the assumption that he could depart with a steady, healthy 2026 season. Kyle Hart has a club option for 2027. Beyond that, there's JP Sears with a year of arbitration remaining and each of Randy Vásquez and Matt Waldron still in their pre-arb stage. There's a worst-case scenario where Pivetta regresses in 2026, Musgrove needs a year to get back to form from Tommy John surgery, King departs via his option, and none of the remaining options prove reliable enough to guarantee a rotation spot beyond this upcoming season. Such a pessimistic outlook was already in play even before the news of Darvish potentially ending his Padres tenure. Losing an arm that was expected to be a lock for next season, however, only adds to such concern. The good news is that worst-case scenarios likely come out at the 100th percentile of bad outcomes. Even if the 2026 group struggles to assert itself as something viable for the years beyond this season, prospects like Miguel Mendez or Jagger Haynes could be on deck to get an opportunity. If not by the end of 2026, then perhaps to start 2027. That would at least help to quell some concerns over a Darvish-less future in San Diego. Ultimately, though, the potential departure of Darvish doesn't change the calculus for the future of the Padres' staff all that much. The concern over a lack of clarity in the rotation always existed; he's been out of the mix so frequently the last two years that there was no guarantee he could even be relied upon post-surgery (in his age-40 season, no less). It does, however, reignite those concerns that have been in place all winter over the stability this staff currently lacks and will now have to work at least a little bit harder in order to establish. View full article