Randy Holt

Earlier this week, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal name-checked three free agent pitchers that the San Diego Padres could be pursuing at this late stage of the offseason: Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito, and old friend Nick Martinez. The rationale was primarily due to the cost, as each of them would require in the neighborhood of between $8 million and $12 million in average annual value (according to Rosenthal, at least). When you factor in that each could likely be had on a short-term contract, the appeal starts to gain some clarity. It certainly lends itself to a more realistic outcome than, say, a trade for Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta ever was. As such, let's talk about those three names in Verlander, Giolito, and Martinez. Each has a track record of success, but none of them are without questions. It's at least partially those questions that leaves them looking for a new team as the calendar prepares to flip over to February, with pitchers and catchers just a few weeks away from reporting to team sites. Nevertheless, there's a good deal of intrigue present with all three. Assuming all things are equal in the contract for the purpose of this exercise, which veteran pitcher is the best fit for the 2026 Padres? Justin Verlander An ageless wonder, the fact that Verlander will turn 43 before the start of the season hasn't slowed him down much. Across 29 starts with the San Francisco Giants last year, Verlander pitched to an identical ERA and FIP, at 3.85. His fastball still checks in at 93.9 MPH on average, and while his strikeout and walk numbers have come down from his peak, he still limits hard contact at a high level. His 37.0 percent hard-hit rate allowed finished in the 78th percentile last year. The issue with Verlander is obviously the age and recent injury history. He averaged 5 2/3 innings per start last year, but experienced a pectoral issue in May that resulted in a stint on the injured list. Prior to that, he battled neck and shoulder woes in 2024. It's unreasonable to expect him to handle a full season at this stage, even if the performance is still there when he does. If the Padres feel comfortable about their depth, though, it becomes a very easy deal to justify. Especially when you factor in the unquantifiable experience that he'd bring to the rest of the staff. Lucas Giolito Giolito's situation isn't all that dissimilar from that of Verlander, albeit without the Hall of Fame credentials and an even more recent injury history. Perhaps, in that case, it's quite different. When the performance is intact, he's flashed a level of dominance at time throughout his career. The issue is sustaining it. Giolito hasn't been the same pitcher since he bookended 2020 with a 5.2 fWAR in 2019 and a 4.1 in 2021 with the Chicago White Sox. But in 2025, he proved there's at least something left in the tank. Starting the season late after an internal brace procedure wiped out his 2024 season, Giolito pitched to a 3.41 ERA and a career-best 9.3 percent home run rate. The issue is that his strikeout rate plummeted from previous years (19.7 percent) and his 9.1 percent walk rate was just 30th percentile. Even the homer rate looks less appealing when you consider the fact that he pitched his home games at Fenway Park, which ranked 22nd in the league for home runs according to Statcast's Park Factors. His numbers also got progressively worse across the board as the season wore on. Nick Martinez After a pair of seasons serving as a swingman in San Diego, Martinez has spent the last two pitching for the Cincinnati Reds. His role there was much the same, as he made 42 appearances in 2024 (16 starts) and 40 appearances in 2025 (26 starts). The latter of the two represented his highest volume of starts in a season at the major-league level. The results were promising, too. Martinez doesn't offer the strikeout upside of Verlander or even what we've seen at Giolito's heights. But his 2025 campaign was indicative of the skill set he could provide the Padres with. Martinez pitched to a walk rate of just 6.1 percent (84th percentile) and was very adept at avoiding quality contact. He avoided barrels (6.9 percent) and posted an opposing hard-hit rate that fell in the 90th percentile (34.5 percent). That so much of his work came as a starter provided some optimism that he could handle bulk in a way that might've been questioned in years prior. The Verdict Consider where things stand for the Padres' current starting group. Nick Pivetta and Michael King are the only Opening Day locks. Joe Musgrove should return not long after. Beyond that, it's a collection of Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron, Kyle Hart, Sean Boyle, and non-roster invitee Triston McKenzie. What the Padres need more than anything is stability. When you factor in Verlander's age and Giolito's shaky performance and own injury history in recent memory, Martinez may actually represent the most stable choice of the three, though he may be the most expensive after playing last year on the qualifying offer. Ultimately, though, it'd be hard to turn away any of the three given the upside they bring and the team's lack of mid-rotation certainty. View full article

At this point in the winter, the need for another catcher on the San Diego Padres' roster is well known. While the active roster does, officially, feature the required two bodies prepared to get work behind the plate, the logistical side is screaming for a third. The team acquired Freddy Fermin at last year's trade deadline to give them some medium-term stability at the position. He's not a free agent until 2030 and offers decent-enough blocking and run game skills that compensate for his more average skill set as a framer. He's the presumptive starter. Behind Fermin, though, the Padres are lacking in clarity with their No. 2. Luis Campusano is a longtime member of the organization, but there has been an apparent reluctance to let him get regular work behind the plate. After nearly 700 innings in the field in 2024, the team employed each of Elías Díaz and Martín Maldonado last year instead of having Campusano work in alongside one of the two. Unfortunately for Campusano, that reluctance is fairly justified. Despite some offensive upside, he sat in the sixth percentile in blocks above average (-10), the eighth in caught stealing above average (-4), and the ninth in framing (-8). His brief time at the top level via injury in 2025 featured only 27 plate appearances in 10 games, all of which came as a designated hitter or serving as a pinch hitter in the later innings. While the team has yet to acquire a viable backup in his stead, those prior outcomes lead to the easy assumption that they'll, at some point, make another addition to provide some competition. We've already discussed the idea of the Chicago Cubs' Carson Kelly serving as one option. With a 1A/1B situation between Kelly and Miguel Amaya — in addition to the fact that the team is right up against the first luxury tax threshold — there's a possibility that the team could be willing to part with the veteran. Should the Padres seek such an addition via the trade market, there is another midwestern team that might be willing to part with another high-upside catcher. The Minnesota Twins recently signed Padres' old friend Victor Caratini to a two-year contract. Already employing each of Ryan Jeffers and an out-of-options Alex Jackson, there's now a bit of a logjam behind the plate for a team in a bit of a rebuild. As an impending free agent with a franchise that moved many of their veteran players at last year's deadline, are the Twins now in a position to further bolster their development system by moving Jeffers? Jeffers offers a fascinatingly-similar case to that of Kelly among potential Padres targets. In addition to playing out the last year of his contract, he was 11th among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances in wRC+ (113) and has a history of occasional power at the position, topping out at a .213 ISO back in 2023. The difference is that he's less effective as a blocker (13th percentile) and in run prevention (5th percentile) than either of Kelly or Fermin. He does, however, represent roughly the same level of adequate framing that either one brings to the table. What he is, though, is a sizable upgrade over what the team would be getting in Campusano's defensive work. Another difference lies in the trade package. The Cubs are in a position where they're set to contend, potentially for a division title. They don't need to feel in any way compelled to move Kelly if they want to keep the position fortified between he and Amaya. For the Twins, who could very well be in for a last-place finish in the American League Central, parting with Jeffers might be a simpler calculation. Which means that the trade cost might not be as high as it would be for someone like Kelly, who's also coming off something of a miniature breakout. It's also possible that the Twins hold onto Jeffers for now, roll out Caratini as their backup, and try to sneak Alex Jackson through waivers as organizational depth. But considering their organizational situation against the Padres' clear need for an upgrade in matters of a backup backstop, he may very well represent a more realistic name to monitor against someone like Kelly in the weeks ahead. View full article

With much of the top tier of free agency now off the board, especially on the positional side, we're starting to hear about the next wave of free agents having a market of their own. One of those is Miguel Andujar, something of a utility man for whose services the San Diego Padres are currently in the running. Jon Heyman's reporting on Monday listed at least six teams in on the veteran hitter, one of which is the Padres. Given the current context of their depth and their bench — which, at present, features Sung Mun Song, Bryce Johnson, and then a large gap before reliability — Andujar represents a logical target. This is true to the point where he could actually be an impact bat in a role that transcends that of a reserve altogether. Andujar is coming off his best season since his 2018 breakout with the New York Yankees. Following years of performance struggle and injury woes, Across 94 games and 341 plate appearances, he turned in a .318/.352/.470 line with a 125 wRC+. His skill set features a lot of balls in play, as he doesn't strike out much (14.4 K%), though he doesn't walk either (5.0 BB%). Even with only modest power at this point, his profile can be an asset to a Padres team in need of exactly the areas in which he appears. Already a contact-driven club, there's a handedness and a versatility to his game that suits San Diego in the most ideal of terms. As a right-handed hitter with traditional splits, Andujar would compliment the roster well. The Padres ranked 17th wRC+ (96) and 23rd in ISO (.130) against southpaws. Andujar, meanwhile, went for a 171 wRC+ and a .189 ISO against pitchers of the opposite handedness last year. Which becomes even more important when you consider the positions at which he could find work. With the Athletics and Cincinnati Reds, Andujar spent time at first base, third base, and each of the corner outfield spots. He also worked in some time as a designated hitter. While the outfield corners and third base are all spoken for, there's a bit of murkiness with respect to first base and the designated hitter spot. The assumption, at this stage, is that some combination of Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets, and Song could all find some work there. Each is a left-handed hitter, however. It leaves an easy picture to paint as to where he'd find the most regular work should the Padres be successful in signing him. Even if it's not a situation where he's isolated to those two positions, the team could be more inclined for off days or DH days for Manny Machado at third or seize the opportunity to give Fernando Tatis Jr. more traditional days off in right. There are opportunities aplenty for a righty of this particular skill set in San Diego. The unfortunate thing for the Padres is that the competition is stiff and we don't know quite what their financial situation looks like. There's familiarity in their competition in each of the A's and Reds, with a surefire contender in the Chicago Cubs also lurking in attempting to sign him. Among those remaining on the free-agent market, though, you'd be hard-pressed to find a more ideal fit against the current roster context than Miguel Andujar and the San Diego Padres. View full article

While a team in need of depth virtually across the board, the catcher spot could represent an area worth addressing for the San Diego Padres. A spot that was something of a mess last year remains concerningly uncertain ahead of 2026. The early 2025 iteration of the Padres relied on a combination of Elías Díaz and Martín Maldonado on any given day. Neither was particularly successful, with offensive oblivion present and defensive regression manifesting heavily in regard to the latter. Supporting an upper-tier pitching staff was a challenge, and neither was able to supplement the offense, even relative to the lower expectations of the position itself. Maldonado would eventually lose his spot in the regular season's second half upon the team's acquisition of Freddy Fermin. And it's Fermin who remains entrenched behind the plate to start 2026. Fermin wasn't particularly strong down the stretch, but the fact that his 64 wRC+ still represented an upgrade over either of his two predecessors speaks to how minimal their production was. With a career mark of a 90 wRC+ at the plate, it stands to reason that he'll fare better in a full season with the Padres. And even if he doesn't, he provides enough defensively as a blocker with an 88th percentile pop time that should compensate well enough. Behind him, though, is where things start to get a little bit messy. As of now, Luis Campusano is projected as the No. 2 catcher behind Fermin. A longtime prospect of the organization, Campusano has yet to get a genuinely extended run as an opportunity to be a full-time catcher. He caught two very brief stints at the top level last year and has regressed massively with the glove over time. Some upside still exists with the bat, but even if the team was inclined to give him an opportunity, could they still look to upgrade their catching duo and let his bat instead serve as an option at first base or designated hitter? If they were to choose such a route, there's at least one intriguing option that could be, theoretically, available in the Chicago Cubs' Carson Kelly. Kelly is coming off something of a career year with the Cubs, posting an offensive output that was at or near his career high just about everywhere you look. He parlayed a strong approach on breaking and off-speed pitches with improved contact skills to post a .179 ISO and 115 wRC+, the former of which was his best since 2019 and the latter serving as easily the highest of his time in the big leagues. Among the 34 catchers with at least 300 plate appearances to their name last year, Kelly's wRC+ ranked ninth. His ISO sat 14th, as did his total value reflected in fWAR (2.6). That latter number was also the highest of Kelly's career. Which makes sense when you start to factor in his defense, which is fairly similar to Fermin's. Kelly doesn't possess the pop time of Fermin (51st percentile), but he was still in the 90th in caught stealing above average and in the 91st in blocks above average. His framing was in the same neighborhood as the Padres' current backstop, but it's rare that you get a catcher that excels in each facet of the position. Having two catchers who are adept at blocking and controlling the run game while being at least within striking distance of "average" on the framing side would greatly support a pitching staff that will need every bit of it. Of course, Kelly being a viable target assumes that the Cubs would even be willing to move him. He's in something of a timeshare with Miguel Amaya, who looked to be on the come up in each of 2024 and 2025 before the latter was derailed by injuries. Even if the two split duties, the assumption is that Kelly's 2025 — from both a health and performance standpoint — would be a springboard toward the majority of duties in the upcoming year. That doesn't mean he's not available, though. A free agent after the year, Kelly's contract carries an AAV of $5.75 million. With the Cubs now up against the luxury tax threshold following the addition of Alex Bregman, could they deal from an area of stability in order to give themselves a little bit of breathing room against that marker? It's a bit tough to envision given the lack of options behind Kelly and Amaya and their apparent reluctance to allow top hitting prospect Moisés Ballesteros to get in work at the position. Nevertheless, the fact that they have two starting-caliber options, on paper, could allow them to feel more comfortable in such an endeavor. The Padres' side of it is easy. They don't feel comfortable allowing Luis Campusano to serve as a full-time backup. They'd rather him work in as a bench bat, first baseman, or designated hitter before doing so as a catcher. They get a solid option to partner with Freddy Fermin who offers more offensive upside and a similar skill set behind the plate. It's a way to fortify the position while deploying Campusano's best asset (his bat) in areas where it's not a detriment. It's a relatively murky picture to really make clear given the absence of an indication that Kelly is truly available. But with so few intriguing options on the free-agent market and the same lack of clarity permeating throughout the rest of the trade winds (to say nothing of the fact that the Jed Hoyer and the Cubs have awoken from what was a mid-winter slumber), it's an option that could be on the table if A.J. Preller gets aggressive enough. View full article

Even at this late stage of the winter, we know the San Diego Padres still have work to do on their 2026 roster and that their priorities could be aligned in a number of ways. For example, we know that they want to add another starting pitcher. Having added Michael King back into the mix and signing a smattering of low-cost or minor-league deals — Sean Boyle, Triston McKenzie, and Kyle Hart among them — will go a long way toward building out a rotation that already features Nick Pivetta, a returning-from-Tommy-John Joe Musgrove, and back-end candidates Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron, and JP Sears. Despite the volume, though, there remains more stability to be found on either of the free agent or trade markets. We also know that the team has had talks about trading from their big-league roster at different points throughout the offseason. Pivetta has previously been mentioned as a trade candidate. Any of the elite bullpen, too, with Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller, and Adrian Morejon each finding their name floating out in the trade ether at various points this winter. While there's certainly logic in moving a reliever to acquire a starter given the strength of the bullpen, it's hard to see such a deal coming to fruition unless there was legitimate upside out of a young arm (with control) from another organization. It could still happen, but there's an apparent reluctance to do so considering that strength juxtaposed with a rotation that doesn't run terribly deep on performance or efficiency. The prospect of trading Pivetta against the need for additional starting pitching opens up a very interesting paradox, however. Trading Pivetta, in a vacuum, is an idea we explored fairly recently. In addition to the career year and the signs of an inevitable regression, his salary skyrockets from a mere $1 million in 2025 to $19 million in 2026 (though it's worth noting his payroll figure is actually at $13.75 million regardless). He will, though, cost a combined $32 million across each of 2027 and 2028. There are also a pair of opt-outs that could lead to him to re-exploring the market by then. As is generally the case with opt-outs, if a player doesn't exercise them, it's probably because their performance is waning. For a purportedly cash-strapped team like San Diego, you could make the argument that it's at least worth considering. Except the already-existent need for starting pitching makes it more difficult to justify... unless they had a plan in place for his replacement. There are three noteworthy starting pitchers still out on the free-agent market: Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Ranger Suárez. Each of Valdez (3.7) and Suárez (3.3) are projected by STEAMER to produce more fWAR than Pivetta (2.9) in 2026. Gallen trails due to some efficiency issues the last two years but has also topped out at a higher figure than any of the other three names when he went for a 5.2 fWAR back in 2023. One imagines that the upside of any of that trio would stretch the team's ceiling far above where it currently resides. The cost might still end up bring prohibitive, however. Even with his actual salary figure, Pivetta's AAV ($13.75 million) remains an affordable number against the luxury tax threshold for the Padres. Ahead of this offseason, MLB Trade Rumors projected Valdez for a five-year, $150 million deal, Suárez for five years and $115 million, and Gallen for four years and $80 million. That's an AAV of $25 million, $23 million, and $20 million, respectively, without any additional contract logistics (e.g., deferrals) that could lower the number. That's more money on the books over a longer term. Even with the upside, each brings certain questions. It'd likely be a tough sell for ownership. That is, of course, unless the winter reaches a point where someone might be inclined to seek less term in order to revisit the market in the next year or two. It might be a dangerous proposition given where labor relations currently reside, but possible all the same as a route that has been taken by a handful of upper-tier free agents over the last few offseasons. Should such a scenario arise, would A.J. Preller be more inclined to give someone like Zac Gallen around $20 million to pitch for a year or two over Pivetta doing the same? It's an interesting concept, but one without a whole lot of evidence on which to stand as legitimate. It assumes that the Padres don't believe in Pivetta replicating the success of the previous season, that the remaining free agents are not going to get the type of term they seek on the market, and that Preller would automatically turn around and use that financial flexibility to pursue a free-agent starter rather than, potentially, shooting lower on upside in order to raise the floor of both the pitching staff and the bench. That's too many assumptions wrapped up in one idea for us to possibly lay credence to any of it. Nevertheless, we're also dealing with an unpredictable executive in an offseason that is growing shorter by the day. With the team in a position where they desire to add another starter and have a visible need for one, we can't discount the idea of a shakeup of this caliber in the coming weeks. View full article

Even at this late stage of the offseason, the San Diego Padres have a depth problem. While the team's addition of Sung Mun Song helps to quell some concerns over the infield depth and lengthens the bench, the fact that there are at least two unsettled spots in the team's lineup (first base and designated hitter) lends itself to the idea that more help is needed on that front. Even with Song's versatility, we saw in 2025 how a dearth of stability with respect to the reserves can derail a team over the course of a 162-game season. The 2025 Padres relied primarily on Jose Iglesias as their guy off the bench. Beyond him, it was a rotating cast of characters that at various points included Jason Heyward, Connor Joe, Tyler Wade, Yuli Gurriel, Oscar González, Brandon Lockridge, Trenton Brooks, and Mason McCoy, some for much shorter spells than others. None of those players completed the year still in the organization, with the exception of Iglesias, whose value was purely in his versatility rather than any semblance of production off the bench (73 wRC+). It was a group unable to compensate for injuries to regulars such as Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts as the season wore on, in addition to its inability to provide relief, when needed, in shorter stints for someone like Fernando Tatis Jr. So, while Song provides legitimate offensive upside at multiple positions — and could end up allowing the team to rotate Jake Cronenworth in at first base while holding down the keystone himself over long stretches — the inevitability that injuries will arise feeds directly into the need for additional upside off the bench. Considering the lack of offensive talent at the upper levels of the minors and that most of the team's minor-league deals thus far have come on the mound, it seems certain that the Friars will explore further additions with the little bit of time that still remains this offseason. However, any discourse around the team's bench configuration at present may be overlooking a player they believe to be a valuable part of their roster: Bryce Johnson. A former San Francisco Giants draftee, Johnson was a former Padre at one point, albeit very briefly. He left as a free agent via a non-tender prior to 2025 but was quickly reacquired for catcher Brett Sullivan in April. Johnson wouldn't appear in a game for San Diego until June and only notched 55 games worth of playing time throughout last year. Despite the small sample for a player without much prospect pedigree, there was something of an indication that some value may lie in what he brings to the table. In Johnson's most extended big league action (84 PA), he posted a slash that included a .342 average and a .383 on-base percentage. His wRC+ checked in at 135 and he added four steals. That all came in addition to his league-average defense across all three outfield spots. Up against the rest of the players that rotated through the Padre bench, it's pretty masterful production. The biggest issue with Johnson's output from 2025, though, is that it came on the strength of a .446 batting average on balls in play. His strikeout rate came in above 22 percent while his walk rate sat just under four. His contact rates and trends are relatively uninspiring. And yet, as much as there is to indicate that such production is not repeatable, there are at least a couple of things working in Johnson's favor. For one, he hit line drives at a 33.3 percent clip. Line drive contact begets favorable BABIP rates, which was the case for him last year. His .298 xBA still would've been an upper-percentile figure had he enough plate appearances to qualify. Such contact came largely against breaking pitches (42.9 percent) and fastballs (35.3 percent). There appeared to be an adjustment in the approach at play that led to these results, as well. Johnson swung at 11 percent fewer off-speed pitches, which were often a source of struggle (his xBA, hard-hit rate, and line-drive rate have largely all been at their lowest against that pitch type), historically. Given that, there's at least some semblance of hope that he can replicate those numbers on some level, even if at not quite the same gaudy pace. Johnson isn't an especially flashy or tools-y bat off the bench. He also doesn't offer much of anything on the power side (.092 ISO). But if you can get a keen approach that emphasizes those pitches against which he succeeds, there's enough contact and on-base ability in there to allow him to become a valuable part of the bench rotation, especially when you factor in the ability to steal a base and provide steady glove work on the outfield grass. Of course, even another successful year from Bryce Johnson doesn't offset the need for more help in the depth department. The Padres will certainly need to add a bit of extra power off the bench. At the same time, we shouldn't discount Johnson's role in upgrading the unit as a regular reserve player with a much larger sample than the one he saw last year. View full article

At the outset of the offseason, there was perhaps no more need more urgent for any team in Major League Baseball than that of the San Diego Padres needing to add to their starting rotation. A group that already didn't run deep saw Dylan Cease depart in free agency, will be without Yu Darvish for the entirety of 2026, and made the early choice to keep each of Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon in relief, leaving a fairly dire situation with which to contend. Nick Pivetta was the only sure-thing starter on the 40-man roster when the winter began. A.J. Preller has since taken measures to address it. Michael King is back on a new three-year deal. Kyle Hart was brought back on a one-year deal as a swingman, while he, minor league signing Triston McKenzie, and holdovers JP Sears, Matt Waldron, and Randy Vásquez will likely fight it out this spring for a role in the latter portion of the rotation. With a Joe Musgrove return on the horizon as well, the starting side of things looks, at least, a bit better than it did back in November. The work isn't done, however. San Diego has a largely fortified roster. While they still need to add to their lineup to address either first base or designated hitter, the positional group is sorted and set for 2026. The bullpen, even with the departure of Robert Suárez, remains one of the more notable individual strengths of any team in the league. It's a group that, on paper, should be able to make a run toward October for the third consecutive season... if Preller can make at least one more addition to the rotation. As of right now, FanGraphs' depth charts have Pivetta leading the way in start share (21 percent), followed by King (19 percent), and Musgrove (17 percent). While the percentages are different, Baseball Prospectus projects Pivetta (18 percent), Musgrove (17 percent), and King (15 percent) as the top trio, as well. Nothing surprising there. And while the remaining spots are also the same — with Vásquez assuming the fourth spot and Sears the fifth on both sites — between the two, Baseball Prospectus actually presents less time for each and more time for Waldron in a starting role. FanGraphs, though, likes Hart more for the sixth spot as the first man up. Where the two sites differ is as strong an indicator as any that work remains in the rotation. But at this stage of the offseason, it remains to be seen from where further reinforcements could emerge. Widely-known organizational context tells you that the Padres are running thin on money to spend. This leaves the likes of Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Ranger Suárez out of the team's reach. They also lack the resources in the minor leagues to make a trade for a notable arm, especially the Tarik Skubal's or Hunter Greene's or Freddy Peralta's of the world. So, where does Preller go from here? It's important to consider, in asking that question, that the Padres don't need a frontline starter. With King in place and Musgrove's return on the horizon, they'll combine with Pivetta to create a steady and solid top three in their starting corps. More often than not, they'll get the team into the middle innings before the bullpen can take over. What the Padres need is innings. History indicates that the other names to fill out the back end are more prone to short outings. That could put a lot of extra stress on long relief and, more importantly, the top-tier leverage arms. It's not about Skubal or even Gallen, but rather about finding stability for at least one of those final two spots. From a free agent standpoint, someone like Lucas Giolito could make sense. He carries a certain level of health risk, but he's averaged 5.8 innings per start when he's been in the mix. He's also likely to get a short-term deal. Old friend Nick Martinez served a swingman role in Cincinnati late in the year, but averaged 5.7 as a starter with the Reds (even if his performance took a step back from "good" to more "average" between 2024 and 2025). Those two would at least present the Padres with a certain level of short-term stability that they need. The options, though, get less inspiring the further you search. The trade market is less clear. We know about the top arms available, but less about those who could be moved at a cost the Padres can actually afford. Perhaps someone like Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller makes sense there. Is there a framework around Keller and Jake Cronenworth? We've also previously discussed Kodai Senga as a target, though he's not without plenty of risk. Ultimately, a majority of teams head into the offseason without their rotation completely solidified. No. 5 spots, in particular, often remain in flux. With King signed, the Padres aren't in as much peril as they once were this winter. However, they're clearly a team in need of adding at least one more starter to the mix in order to feel better about their group heading into the spring exhibition slate. View full article

With Joe Musgrove demanding much of the attention as a key member of the San Diego Padres returning from major surgery early in 2026, it's easy to forget that he isn't the only one on the team's pitching staff set to do so. Jhony Brito underwent internal brace surgery for his UCL back in May, indicating that he could be back within the first couple of months of the upcoming year. For a pitching-starved team like San Diego, it's hard to imagine he won't carve out a role quickly upon his return. The role itself, however, is up in the air. Brito was one of the four players that A.J. Preller acquired when he sent Juan Soto to the Bronx, along with Michael King, Drew Thorpe, and Kyle Higashioka. Thorpe wasn't long for the roster as he was flipped for now-former Padre Dylan Cease, while Higashioka left in free agency at the end of that year. With King now back under contract in San Diego, he and Brito represent the only chance for the team to make good on that deal. There was not a point at which we saw Brito throw a pitch for the 2025 Padres, even before the surgery. His last action came back in 2024, when he logged nearly 44 innings at the big-league level and another 14 in Triple-A. His work at the top level came exclusively in relief, with 26 appearances to a 4.12 ERA and 3.72 FIP. His fastball, averaging 96.3 MPH, sat in the 84th percentile. Most of Brito's appearances that year were of the multi-inning variety. And that's an important part in determining what his role could be. Brito had plenty of work as a starter prior to the 2024 season. He made 20 starts between the minor and major leagues in 2023 and 23 starts in 2022. The results were generally fine, but fell off quite a bit when serving as a starter. His career ERA in 52 2/3 innings as a starter in Major League Baseball sits at 6.32; he's at a 2.88 ERA in 81 1/3 innings in relief. While he's never posted gaudy strikeout numbers, his combination of velocity, command (5.2 BB% in 2024), and groundball contact (48.3 GB%) each make him an enticing option in relief for this particular Padres team. The team, in its current form, has some options in long relief. Kyle Hart could serve such a role. So, too, could any combination of winter signing Ty Adcock or Triston McKenzie, the latter of whom is on a minor-league deal. None of that trio, however, offers the upside we've seen Brito flash in his brief time serving such a role. Hart was knocked around and shuttled between the top two levels in 2025, Adcock presents some command issues, and McKenzie is coming off a multi-year struggle that included a velocity dip wrought by health issues. Brito's skill set would help to contribute to an effective bridge between starting pitchers and a elite group of late-inning relievers. Given that, it's hard to imagine Brito serving any role outside of exactly the one in which we've already seen him. To say nothing of his health in all of this. Even if the team wanted Brito and his remaining years of team control to transition back onto the starting side — something that would only be a consideration given the relative shallowness of the entire starting operation in the short term — they wouldn't immediately transition him into such a position. Assuming a return at the early end of a recovery timeline (May), he'd likely be inserted into exactly the type of role in which we should expect to see him. As such, that multi-inning relief role in which we last saw Jhony Brito is also going to be his best path toward contributing to the 2026 Padres. The aforementioned lack of depth on the starting side will make the multi-inning gig an essential one for this roster, even when assuming more additions to the rotation are on the way. Brito has the skill set to succeed there above all other options, and it's hard to imagine the team would be inclined to let him ply his trade in any role but that upon his return. View full article

Had it not been for the 2024 brilliance of Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh, we may very well have had to stipulate "former National League Rookie of the Year" when discussing Jackson Merrill. As it were, Skenes took home the hardware while Merrill had to "settle" for a nine-year extension ahead of Year 2 in Major League Baseball. Indeed, such a contract was well-earned on the part of Merrill and not even remotely questioned for a San Diego Padres team that has faced plenty of them for handing out hefty multi-year pacts. His 2024 season featured a a .292/.326/.500 line across 156 games, as well as a 130 wRC+ and 5.3 fWAR. Just 13 qualifying position players finished ahead of Merrill in that fWAR figure, and only three of them were of the outfielder variety. One can understand why the Padres were so eager to lock him up long-term. His percentile distribution was indicative of a player standing on the cusp of elite status, as well: While there might have been a desire to see Merrill reign in the discipline a bit, it didn't cost him in his ability to avoid strikeouts or generate quality contact. Despite the aggression inherent in his approach, each of those rates remained respectable. His 7.5 ft swing length average allowed for zone coverage, with enough bat speed to help him compensate to the tune of the 16th-best Contact% among position players that year (81.0). He also scored high marks defensively, where his 12 Outs Above Average checked in in the 97th percentile. Unfortunately for Merrill, many of the positives from his rookie campaign regressed mightily in 2025. His line fell to one that went .264/.317/.457, with a wRC+ that dropped 14 points from the prior year (116). His 3.0 fWAR was a notable step back. It was still a strong year by any individual standard, but still rung as disappointing for a player that looked like a budding superstar after Year 1. Of course, there were perfectly good and obvious reasons for that. By the time we reached the end of August last year, Merrill was set to head to the injured list for the third time in 2025. He strained his hamstring in April and was the victim of a hard tag to the head while sliding into second base in June. The third stint was due to a rolled ankle that resulted in a sprain and bone bruise. Enduring such a rollercoaster on the health side resulted in Merrill appearing in just 115 games and even some of those were not played at 100 percent health. The result of such health woes were a percentile chart that doesn't look nearly as appealing as the first year: Merrill wasn't able to generate the same type of contact and saw roughly a five percent increase in strikeouts. What's striking is that he maintained an upper-tier barrel rate within all of that. It leads to a natural conclusion that some effects lingered as Merrill worked his way back from injury, only to face another a short while later. That doesn't mean it's all negative, though. The approach, in particular, saw some improvement. While Merrill did whiff and, subsequently, struck out more throughout the 2025 season, he also walked more. He saw a slight decrease in his swing rate and chase rate with two strikes specifically, indicating that there could be some growth on the horizon in that regard. A combination of an improving approach and an offseason clear of myriad injuries should each bode well, to say nothing of how Merrill finished the year. The following is Merrill's monthly wOBA throughout last season: There is a significant drop following the hamstring injury that held him out for exactly a month. It continued to drop following the concussion in June. Once he was clear of that second IL trip, the numbers started to rise sharply. Even following the ankle injury, he continued to ascend back toward his 2024 levels of performance. Aside from April, where he had come out scorching at the plate, September was Merrill's best individual month of the year. He returned from the ankle injury on September 1 and turned in a month that included a .352 ISO and 160 wRC+. His 53.8 percent hard-hit rate was his highest in an individual month. That continued into the postseason, as Merrill reached base in four of 12 plate appearances and was one of the team's only hitters to contribute much of anything in a short series against the Chicago Cubs. It is ultimately those trends that have the arrow pointing back up for Merrill in 2026... with one caveat. September was more aggression than patience at the plate, as his swing and strikeout rates each went up and the walk rate went down. But even if Merrill is unable to sustain growth in his approach, it's surely a tradeoff the Padres are willing to accept if the outcomes look like that. Regardless of the nuance presented in his plate appearances, it's clear that the healthy version of Jackson Merrill that we saw mere glimpses of in 2025 is closer to the true version we saw full-time in 2024. If the Padres are going to bank on a rebound from any of their hitters, he's likely the one. View full article

With Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto agreeing to a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend, choices are suddenly limited for the San Diego Padres to round out their infield group. Specifically, it's the first base position that still lingers as one of the team's most pressing questions a mere six weeks out from the beginning of training camp. What the team could do to fill their first base vacancy loomed as one of the top questions heading into the offseason. With each of Luis Arráez and Ryan O'Hearn reaching free agency, it represented the most obvious pathway toward bolstering the offensive production of the roster. Okamoto was a corner infielder who could've served such a purpose. Willson Contreras could've been another prior to his trade to the Boston Red Sox. With those two now off the board, O'Hearn signing in Pittsburgh, and A.J. Preller unlikely to traverse the Cody Bellinger waters, the problem of what shape first base will take for San Diego persists. Not that the team is entirely without options. There is certainly an in-house path toward addressing the position. Gavin Sheets is coming off something of a breakout and has first base experience. He could form something of a platoon with out-of-options backup catcher Luis Campusano, if Craig Stammen & co. were so inclined. Jake Cronenworth could also slide back over from the keystone upon the arrival of former KBO star Sung Mun Song, even if the former's offensive profile doesn't necessarily fit the spot. Should the team look outside the present roster, though, could they turn to a familiar face? Luis Arraez remains a free agent. He's coming off a career-best 3.5 K%, which represented the lowest full-season strikeout rate since Tony Gwynn's 1995 campaign. However, he also sat in the first percentile in hard-hit rate (16.7 percent) and barrel rate (1.1 percent), both of which were at least partially wrought by a bat speed figure that has consistently dropped in the last three years; his 62.6 MPH average bat speed was the lowest of his career. But even as a contact-only bat, he's not entirely without value to a lineup. Consider that his .289 batting average on balls in play represented a 35-point drop from the previous season. He still posted a line that included a .292 average and a technically-above-average 104 wRC+. Even his isolated skill set does provide value, especially within the context of a Padres lineup that, on paper, could use him as an effective supplement. In a lesser lineup, his one tool might get lost. In a San Diego lineup that employs Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, should see a bounce back year from Jackson Merrill, and features the likes of Ramón Laureano and Song, there's an argument to be made that he's still a worthy fit with this group. In such a scenario where the Padres were to re-sign Arráez, it takes some of the pressure off to settle first base specifically. You could roll out Sheets and/or Campusano or Cronenworth from a defensive standpoint. while Arráez serves primarily as a designated hitter to compensate for his below-average defense at the cold corner. It solidifies the lineup at what would likely be a lower price point for a cash-strapped team, too. Which brings us to the specific circumstances under which such a return would be logical. The first is that the contract would have to make sense. Arráez has just the one notable tool. With a glut of long-term contracts on the books, Preller can hardly afford to overpay on a multi-year deal, even if Arráez is still only 28. The other is that Stammen would have to avoid the tendency of hitting him near the top of the lineup in the way that Mike Shildt did. His on-base percentage isn't in good enough shape for such an integral role. If you can get him on a team-friendly, short-term deal in a way that still allows for an addition(s) on the pitching side, all while having him serve a role further down the lineup where his contact skills would get the OBP guys at the top moving around the bases, then you have a case. A few months ago, such a move would've seemed outlandish. But as the winter and the personnel options begin to dwindle, one could make the argument that this is precisely the type of short-term move Preller should explore before pivoting back to the much larger need that continues to live on the mound. View full article

The San Diego Padres' signing of former KBO infielder Sung Mun Song wasn't difficult to pin down in its motivation. A versatile infielder coming off a 25/25 season with Kiwoom is a player that virtually every team in baseball would want to add to their roster. So, it's a certain level of victory that the team was able to sign him to a four-year deal at an affordable price point, even if there isn't an obvious position for him to start at in the present moment. While A.J. Preller could still seek to make a move and trade someone like Jake Cronenworth, the team has options in how they deploy their newest positional acquisition. He could flip Cronenworth back over to first base while Song handles everyday duty at the keystone. The team could also keep Cronenworth at second, insert some sort of platoon involving Gavin Sheets and Luis Campusano (assuming the team doesn't sign an everyday first baseman), and utilize Song as a multi-positional component in their lineup while rotating the designated hitter spot. In any case, it sounds like the team is exploring additional contingencies in order to ensure Song's bat is in the lineup as frequently as possible. Reports emerged around the holidays that the team was considering letting Song spend some time on the outfield grass. New manager Craig Stammen confirmed as much, stating that the goal was to have his bat in the mix above all. It's an interesting proposition, but one that doesn't feature quite the same level of certainty as his work on the infield might. Presently, the Padres have their three starting outfielders in place. Fernando Tatis Jr. will continue his post as one of the game's best defensive right fielders. Jackson Merrill has center locked down for the next decade. Trade deadline acquisition Ramón Laureano, who is in a contract year playing on a club option, will handle left field duties. Tatis and Merrill are stars and, as such, everyday players, while Laureano was split neutral in a strong year at the plate. That's not necessarily a group that lends itself to too much flexibility. The 2025 Padres were hit with some brutal injury luck. Perhaps nobody fell more into that cycle than Merrill, who endured multiple stints on the injured list throughout the year. Laureano also missed the end of the season, while Tatis likely had various points at which he could've used a string of days off, particularly after absorbing multiple hit-by-pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers in June. With very little offensive upside behind the starting trio — Bryce Johnson and Tirso Ornelas don't really move the needle — it could certainly behoove Stammen to see if Song has the chops to serve as a supplementary piece in the outfield puzzle in order to ensure the offense doesn't experience the kind of fall off they did last year when games were missed. If you get lucky and don't need that type of support in the way that the Friars did last season, then at least you've got someone worth throwing out there for the odd day off or late-game situation. Ultimately, though, this exploration is about expanding the bench at large. It wasn't only the outfield that suffered from the team's lack of depth in 2025; it was virtually everywhere. With Luis Campusano already set to occupy a spot as the team's backup catcher, the team needs to be able to maximize what they have in their remaining three players on the bench. Last year's reserve group featured the likes of Jose Iglesias, Johnson, and a host of other players that were largely out of the organization by the end of the year. Part of such heavy turnover was due to the fact that it was simply not a versatile group, save for Iglesias. The support just wasn't there when the team needed someone to step in whether in the short or long term. As such, it makes complete sense for Stammen and the Padres to consider Song in the outfield ahead of the 2026 campaign. Even if he's set to be utilized as primarily an infielder, an expansion of his skill set — assuming Song proves capable of handling such duty — provides the team with extra coverage in the outfield in addition to what he was already set to bring to the infield mix. Regardless of how it all shakes out, the fact that the Padres have a moveable player on their roster capable of providing notable offensive production is a really exciting prospect against what the team was working with last season. View full article

The nature of an organization led by a hyper-aggressive executive like A.J. Preller is that, eventually, your farm system looks like it was ransacked by a prospect-hungry Galactus. Such is the state of the San Diego Padres at present. Despite years of building up an impressive minor-league system, Preller has recently emptied the cupboard in a way that's left the Padres at or near the bottom of just about every ranking from any outlet. While we shouldn't discount the front office's ability to build it back up rather quickly, that level of activity has left the upper levels of the organization without much talent capable of impacting the major-league roster in the immediate future. That doesn't mean it's completely hopeless, however. Prior to this year's 40-man rostering deadline, in which teams had to select players to their roster as means of protection from the Rule 5 Draft that took place earlier this month, Preller and the Padres added pitcher Miguel Mendez to the mix. MLB Pipeline has Mendez currently as the No. 5 prospect in the organization, with his profile noting the following: With the exception of Bradgley Rodriguez — who got a cup of coffee at the top level in 2025 — Mendez is the only prospect listed in the team's top 10 with an ETA even close to 2026. His recent addition to the 40-man, in conjunction with that exciting profile above, combine to create an exciting, if a bit overlooked, arm heading into next season. Of course, even such excitement comes with certain caveats. In 2025, Mendez made three starts with Single-A Lake Elsinore, a dozen in High-A Fort Wayne and another six with Double-A San Antonio. In those 21 starts, his ERA checked in at 3.22 (3.86 FIP), with a 29.4 percent strikeout rate and a walk rate just over 11 percent. When you consider the arsenal — an upper-90s fastball with an effective slider and developing changeup — against the results, you can understand why the Padres were concerned about protecting Mendez from selection in the Rule 5 Draft. However, let's circle back to those caveats before assuming we'll see Mendez throwing baseballs at Petco Park early in 2026. The first is his free pass habits. Since joining the organization back in 2021, Mendez has pitched to a BB% of 11.3. In each of 2023 and 2024, both with Lake Elsinore, he posted figures of 13.3 and 14.9, respectively. While he was able to improve that in his third time around in his trio of starts this year (8.0), it did increase gradually as he rose through the system. It was at 9.8 with Fort Wayne before leaping to 15.9 in San Antonio. That higher rate with San Antonio is also notable, as it was upon reaching Double-A that Mendez faced his biggest struggle of last season. In addition to the jump in free passes, Mendez's ERA came in above eight with the Missions. While his 5.91 FIP indicated slightly better results, the combination of walks and homers (16.7 percent homer-to-fly-ball ratio) did him in. It's likely he'll get another run against that same competition before he even touches Triple-A El Paso, let alone the top level. That doesn't mean Mendez was a total loss the higher he rose in the system, however. His strikeout rate was actually higher with the Missions than with Fort Wayne, and it's fairly clear that he ran into some bad luck with the former (.346 BABIP, 56.1 percent strand rate). It was also a mere 22-ish inning sample against more than 60 in High-A. It's a rather complex stage of development, where you're looking for growth against stronger competition but also have to be aware of the nuances and not take the stats purely at face value. Within all of that, it's important to note that the command has improved over his years in the organization. Last year's walk rate is a far cry from the 15.5 percent rate he posted back in 2022 and reflects steady improvement in the two seasons in between. Nevertheless, it's the command that will need to demonstrate continued and sustained improvement before Mendez is considered for a role on the San Diego staff. Regardless of that, the young right-hander is a fascinating piece of the puzzle for the Padres in 2026. The upside is undeniable; when you're flashing that kind of heat and an effective secondary pitch, you're going to find your way up the ladder in an expedient fashion. It's a matter of the command and perhaps that changeup emerging as a more effective tertiary offering that may dictate how fast the rise is. If Mendez can show that both of those things are coming to fruition early on, maybe he gets a look in El Paso. Or, depending on the team's pitching at the major-league level, he jumps a level entirely in order to get working with Ruben Niebla even faster. In any case, with a team that has such little upside at the upper levels at present, Mendez is an essential watch for a Padres staff that will be seeking quality starting pitching in any way they can find it in 2026. View full article