Randy Holt

There was a point in 2025 where New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga looked like he was ready for the breakthrough that would let him live among the game's top-tier arms. He pitched to a 1.39 ERA in the first half of the season and ended June with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate and 7.1 percent walk rate that each represented his best in an individual month up to that point. Then, the second half hit. As the Mets faltered in the standings, Senga played his part. His ERA skyrocketed to 6.56, his strikeout rate fell to 20.5 percent in July and August, and his walk rate sat at nearly 13 percent. He was touched for hard contact over 40 percent of the time (by FanGraphs' measure). While he's expressed a desire to stay in Queens, the Mets' attempt to rebuild their roster toward another postseason run has, naturally, led to Senga's name landing on the trade block this winter. Given their absence of starting pitching, it's also natural to ponder whether the San Diego Padres should make a run at the embattled starter. Despite the second-half swoon, Senga isn't without value. He has a career 3.00 ERA (3.82 FIP) in Major League Baseball, with a 26.8 percent strikeout rate and 11.1 percent walk rate across 285 innings. He's also averaged 5.5 innings per start, with longevity proving to be something of an issue for Padres starters in 2025. That's a lot of boxes checked by a player with two years remaining on his contract (and a club option for a third season). Those two years at a $28 million price point makes a whole lot of sense for the Padres, at least on paper. You're getting a pitcher with clear upside in a manner that would provide some stability in the starting five for the next two years, rather than relying on a veteran likely coming in on a one-year contract. To say nothing of the third-year club option that checks in at another $15 million. That's entirely affordable considering the upside. Again, though, we're talking about the addition on paper. There's plenty of reason for pause when analyzing Senga as a potential trade target. While he's averaged decent innings when healthy, he also hasn't been particularly healthy in either of the last two years. He threw just five innings in 2024 before calf and shoulder injuries brought his season to its untimely end. A hamstring issue in June this season was likely a factor in some of his second-half issues that resulted in him spending the stretch run in Triple-A. And then you have to consider those struggles, too. Senga missed fewer bats and was much more liable to serve up barreled contact in July and August than in the months prior. For a team that struggled down the stretch like the Mets did last year, sending one of your highest-upside arms to the minor leagues speaks volumes about where they felt he was from a production standpoint. The upside is obviously tantalizing. Which is why, on paper, a pursuit of Senga on the part of the Padres makes a ton of sense. You get mid-to-front of the rotation production on at least a two-year contract. Numerous vacancies exist on that side of the staff. In an ideal world, you acquire Senga and stabilize your rotation in '26 and '27. But the upside is also likely a reason the Mets wouldn't give Senga away for a soft return, with the injury and performance woes in the last two seasons presenting an absurdly complex scenario. The Padres have so few resources for a trade in their organization at present. Can they afford to dispense with those resources in pursuit of a pitcher who offers so much variability in terms of outcomes? That would be difficult to reckon with when stability should be the name of the game. It borders on being a frustratingly mind-bending scenario for the San Diego Padres. Do you add a veteran starter looking to rebuild value on a reasonable contract or pursue the volatile arm that might cost you prospects but look healthy on the payroll (comparatively)? Not that we've heard anything on the part of interest the Padres could have. But considering where the rotation stands, any arm deemed available by way of the trade winds is going to be an obvious connection. Whether this particular arm could or should be a target, however, is a question with an answer that could roll on for miles. View full article

It was a quiet move that barely broke through the list of transactions on the Major League Baseball website, but the San Diego Padres have made another depth signing for a depleted pitching staff in former New York Yankees prospect Sean Boyle. It's a minor-league deal, but one that could have at least some bearing on the 2026 campaign. Boyle is a full year removed from a 2023 Tommy John surgery, spending the entirety of the '25 season with the Yankees' Triple-A affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He made 28 appearances (23 starts) and pitched to a 4.61 ERA (4.63 FIP) with a 20.5 percent strikeout rate and 8.7 percent walk rate. The results could be classified as barely-better-than-average, but it is worth noting that he threw more innings than any arm the Padres had in El Paso last season. There also may be a touch more upside to be realized than he demonstrated in 2025. While never a marquee prospect with the Yankees, Boyle did crack their list of Top 30 prospects in 2023. His MLB Pipeline writeup that year included the following: Based on that, Boyle is (in a sense) a 2.5-pitch pitcher. He offers the sweeper that can take the shape of a cutter while throwing a two-seam fastball that induces groundball contact. There isn't an overpowering component in his arsenal, but his pre-surgery numbers are indicative of a pitcher with higher upside on the strikeout side even if the command has left a little to be desired. As such, this other bit from his writeup is less surprising: There's a tightrope element to his game that isn't ideal. But each side of the scouting report does speak to a player who can be a regular contributor either as a backend starter or as more of a bulk type in relief, especially given the idea that his stuff will play against hitters of both handedness. Said stuff, even if not overpowering, should, on paper, combine with his proclivity for volume to provide a sense of stability in whatever role Boyle finds himself in. That is absolutely something this Padres team could use. The rotation itself is still depleted. Nick Pivetta is the only starter guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster. While Joe Musgrove may not be far behind and the team could opt to look at someone like Mason Miller for a starting gig, this is a team in dire need of arms to eat innings. It remains to be seen if Kyle Hart can fill such a role in Year 2 with the organization. Boyle, despite his lack of experience at the top level, appears capable of providing just that. It's another unexciting move for an organization starved for some stability following the confirmed departure of Dylan Cease and imminent one of Michael King. But, like the re-signing of Hart, it's one that is entirely necessary considering where the team stands on the mound at present. View full article

There are a couple of certainties when it comes to how the San Diego Padres might set out toward building their 2026 roster this winter. The first is a focus on pitching. This is a team losing Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. On the same note, Yu Darvish will miss all of next year. The rotation is in a bad way. Even if they're able to backfill some spots from the bullpen, they would then need to shore up the depth in relief. Regardless of how any actual addition transpires, the most notable ones will likely be on the mound. The second is that the team is likely going to fill their bench spots in a similar fashion to last year. The Padres went with the volume approach on fringe guys in 2025. Jason Heyward, Jose Iglesias, Tyler Wade, and Gavin Sheets (among others) were all brought in on minor-league deals. Only Iglesias and Sheets stuck around throughout the season, and only Sheets has a longer-term outlook with the organization. Having already signed Pablo Reyes to a minor-league pact, we should expect to see plenty more of that type of contract making their way to Peoria, Arizona next spring for a shot at the roster. But given how things transpired for the Padres in 2025, it's clear they can't rely solely on minor-league deals to fill out depth spots. When you lose games to injury — as the Padres did with Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, Ramón Laureano all missing notable time — and need to ensure breaks for the likes of Manny Machado or Fernando Tatis Jr. in the field, the likes of a Heyward or an Iglesias scattered throughout the bench are simply not enough to get the job done. Which is why Willi Castro represents the ideal candidate for the San Diego Padres to pursue this winter. A former Detroit Tiger, Minnesota Twin, and Chicago Cub, Castro hits free agency coming off a tough stretch following a deadline deal that landed him on the North Side of Chicago. Castro hit just .170 and reached base at a paltry .245 clip following the trade, relying primarily on his approach (16.0 percent walk rate in September) to drum up any semblance of value at the plate. He was worth -0.5 bWAR in 110 plate appearances with the Cubs. It's hard to put much stock in a player's post-deadline performance when said player changes his home stadium. Which is why Castro's career line — .244/.313/.384 with a wRC+ of 95 — represents something much more important. Even more notable is the fact that in his last two full seasons in Minnesota, he was an above-average hitter (107 wRC+) who added value on the bases (47 steals between 2023 & 2024). So, while his power has been uneven in his career, there's a steadiness to his bat and baserunning that the Padres lacked entirely in their reserves in 2025. Of course, the most important component that Castro brings is in his versatility. While not particularly elite at any position, he continues to log time all over the field in 2025. For Minnesota and Chicago last season, he totaled 264.2 innings at second base, 129 innings at third base, 26 innings at shortstop, 261.2 innings in left field, 35 innings in center field, and 256 innings in right field. His history prior to '25 includes a much longer run at short and in center, too. That level of versatility verges on being considered an everyday player rather than a true bench type. As such, Castro stands to receive a decent contract this winter, even if on a shorter term than some of his peers. At present, the Padres are without any sort of positional depth both on their roster and in the upper levels of the minors. Their 40-man roster includes Mason McCoy and Will Wagner on the infield, and Bryce Johnson and Tiros Ornelas in the outfield. None of those players offers the level of coverage that Castro can provide from a positional standpoint. McCoy and Wagner are each limited to the dirt while Johnson and Ornelas are stuck on the grass, all with shortcomings on the offensive side. Castro not only offers that coverage in a way that is extremely efficient for this roster but possesses a higher (read: any) upside at the plate. MLB Trade Rumors projects a two-year, $15 million deal for Castro. Even operating on a tight budget, that's not only something the Padres can afford, but something they should be entirely willing to pursue. The benefit of a player like Castro is that you can roster him and then scatter those six-figure minor-league pacts throughout the roster in a way that allows you to follow a singular skill set without trying to catch some kind of magic in the cheapest way possible. On that term and at that price point, Willi Castro isn't only a desirable entity for this roster, but an essential one. View full article

When the San Diego Padres were building their bench for the 2025 season, they followed a very specific formula. With little money to invest (save for the deal to which they signed Nick Pivetta), the reserve group was comprised largely of minor-league signings that were selected to the active roster ahead of the start of the regular season. Sometimes it works. It's how the team was able to bring Gavin Sheets into the fold. Other — and perhaps more frequent — times, it doesn't. None of Jason Heyward, Oscar González, Martín Maldonado, Tyler Wade, Yuli Gurriel, Connor Joe, or Jose Iglesias offered much in the way of contributions throughout the season. Almost all of those names were off the roster and out of the organization in short order. Only Iglesias made it all the way through, and that was on the strength of his versatility above all. In San Diego's case, it was an ineffectual way to fill out the roster. Unfortunately for the Padres, it's likely how next year's depth will also be assembled. And we've already seen the start of it. The team signed Pablo Reyes to a minor-league deal last week. A utility veteran with time in seven separate seasons in Major League Baseball, Reyes' peak in volume came back in 2023. That season, he logged 185 plate appearances for the Milwaukee Brewers and was as close to checking in as a league average bat as he has in his entire career (95 wRC+). While he didn't offer anything in the way of power off the bench (.090 ISO), he struck out just 11.4 percent of the time, walked at a 7.6 percent rate, and added seven steals. He also hasn't remotely approached that output since. In the two subsequent seasons, Reyes has 98 combined plate appearances at the top level. He got into games on 21 occasions for the Boston Red Sox and made a single appearance for the New York Mets in 2024 (though he failed to make an appearance at the plate with the latter). He's now coming off a season in which he appeared in 25 games and notched 34 plate appearances with the New York Yankees. Even by the lower standard set forth by such a small sample of offensive work, the numbers are uninspiring. Reyes' strikeout rate in each of the last two years has approached 30 percent. His walk rate sits lower than it did in that decent '23 campaign, and there is almost zero power to speak of (.033 ISO). This is a player whose value is almost entirely wrapped up his ability to move around the field. In that sense, Reyes is, essentially, Jose Iglesias. But worse. There was a time when Reyes represented the super-utility type well. Second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield spots were at his disposal at each of the major league and Triple-A levels. That level of versatility, however, has started to diminish. His time on the outfield grass has waned as he's settled into a rotation between second, third, and short. Now, that's something that the Padres need given Iglesias' departure. But as lackluster as Iglesias' bat was, you'd like that extra bit of versatility in order to justify an even worse one in his stead. It's obviously possible that the team makes an additional investment or two that offers additional upside. And it's hard to get too worked up about a depth signing that occurs in November. What this does, however, is speak to the same trend we saw from the Padres last offseason continuing into this one. If there's an investment to be made, it's on the mound. The team is in need of significant help in the rotation and some additional depth in the bullpen. The limited financial resources at their disposal will likely be deployed there. The position group, meanwhile, will be supplemented with exactly this type of signing. Sometimes you get a Sheets. But considering the direction which Reyes' career has taken in recent years, you're looking like something much more akin to the much larger group of failed bench players that the team saw last year. View full article

Luis Campusano's role with the San Diego Padres has been one of the more perplexing organizational developments over the last handful of seasons. Peaking as the team's No. 3 overall prospect in each of 2021 and 2022, the backstop has never quite gotten the run that his offensive upside might have deserved. Now on his last legs with the franchise, the 2026 campaign will finally reveal all about his long-term outlook in San Diego. After a cup of coffee in each of those two seasons when he was a top prospect, the 2023 season looked like the one where Campusano was finally going to get some run behind the plate. Given that he turned in his best season to date, turning in a .319/.356/.491 line and a 133 wRC+ across 174 plate appearances, that should have been the case. Health pinned down his ability to produce over a longer stretch, but it did lead to a decent run in the following year. However, Campusano was unable to duplicate his offensive success in 2024 — his line read .227/.281/.361, with a wRC+ of 83 in 299 PA — and his defensive grades were woeful (-13 Fielding Run Value, -17 Defensive Runs Saved). He would cede virtually all playing time to Kyle Higashioka and Elías Díaz by year's end. Unconvinced by such a downward turn in his development, the Padres turned to a combination of Díaz and Martín Maldonado ahead of 2025. Freddy Fermin was acquired at the deadline to gain further stability at the position. It'll be Fermin behind the dish for '26, with Higashioka long gone, Díaz a free agent, and Maldonado calling it a career at the outset of this offseason. Behind him, however, there's some space for depth. And if the Padres are finally going to understand what they have in Luis Campusano, it should likely be him as the No. 2 to start the season. The offensive upside is undeniable. Despite garnering only 27 trips to the plate in 2025 with the Padres, Campusano turned in an excellent year as a hitter in El Paso. His final line read .336/.441/.595 with a 148 wRC+. Perhaps most impressive was the fact that he nearly matched a strong strikeout rate (17.3 percent) with a quality walk figure (15.2 percent). He walked in 22.2 percent of his minuscule amount of plate appearances at the top level as well. Even if he struck out at a 40 percent clip, there's an approach there that is worth spending some time with in the lineup. The issue for the Padres will be getting Campusano playing time with this pitching staff. It's difficult to justify time for a poor defensive catcher with a group as quality as the Padres are in relief. It's even more so to deploy such a catcher with a starting staff that figures to exist heavily on the margins given an intense lack of depth and few dollars to play with this winter. You need a stabilizing presence back there. Fermin offers that as a starter and most teams are willing to compromise offense from their backup in the name of the glove, not the other way around. That the Padres were willing to tender a contract to Campusano speaks to the idea that this could be the year they consider giving him some actual run as a backup catcher and bench bat. There's a whole winter ahead to work with him. Maybe that time is dedicated to shoring up his skill behind the plate. Otherwise, he may not be long for the roster with a handful of savvy veterans now available in free agency at a lower price point. In any case, though, the relationship between player and organization is reaching its inflection point. If it doesn't work, then you're left with a couple of options. You either move him in the spring to a team that is intrigued enough by the bat, or you select the catcher to be inevitably added via a minor-league deal ahead of the spring. Either outcome isn't a terrible one. They both, however, fall short of what would be the preferred option: Luis Campusano shows enough with the glove to justify his presence on the roster while adding a more-than-capable bench bat to a Padres roster sorely in need of offensive depth. Of course, any road toward determining exactly what the future looks like for Luis Campusano will require the Padres to give him a legitimate leash. View full article

Regardless of the shape the winter takes for the San Diego Padres in a financial sense, they have clear roster needs. On the positional side, they need a first baseman and they need a designated hitter (assuming they don't create a vacancy by moving a different position player via trade). Gavin Sheets figures to fill one of those roles, at least in a timeshare situation. Considering his defensive shortcomings as a full-time player, one imagines he's best suited for work as the extra hitter above a permanent position. Which means that first base stands as the largest positional need for the Padres as they venture into the winter months. The Padres primarily relied upon Luis Arráez at the "3" spot in the field in 2025. He logged nearly 1,000 innings at the position last year, with the eye test serving him a bit better than his -6 Outs Above Average. While he never looked quite as bad as the numbers might indicate, his light-hitting skill set was never meant for a position which demands a certain degree of power. The team's trade deadline acquisition of Ryan O'Hearn didn't do much to improve the offensive side, nor did it eat away too much from Arráez's time. The 2025 context notwithstanding, the Padres embarked on this offseason without a solution at first for 2026. Each of Arráez and O'Hearn are free agents and neither appears terribly likely to return given their respective struggles in various areas last season, as well as what they might be expecting in their next contract. Which means that, whether via trade or free-agent signing, the team needs to seek an outside source in order to fill that vacancy. Free agent candidates are likely out. Josh Naylor already re-signed in Seattle on a massive five-year deal. Pete Alonso will demand much more beyond what the Padres would be willing to offer. Many of the remaining options are players that linger around replacement level or aren't anything beyond bench bats at this stage of their career. Which means that if the Padres are seeking a full-time solution to their first base situation, it's going to have to come via trade; a complicated situation for a team sitting at the bottom of the farm system rankings. Which is why St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras may offer the most effective answer. Such a move would be the truest response to the need within the lineup. Though even that answer is not without complications, especially considering that this is the same Contreras you might remember from this interaction with the Padres in 2025: One never quite knows how much on-field turmoil like this impacts whether a player would play for the opposite franchise. We've seen players become declarative about not joining division rivals (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., for instance). But, candidly, if Contreras — who we're speaking about in this manner because he has a full no-trade clause — was hung up on joining teams with which he's had some sort of spat, that would drastically limit his market. He's a fiery player who joined his former club's biggest rival in St. Louis in free agency. It's hard to imagine this instance would deter him too much from joining a contender. But regardless of what unfolded in July of this year, Willson Contreras is very much a player in which the San Diego Padres should have interest. He's been a remarkably consistent player, even upon his transition to first base, maintaining a career 122 wRC+ and .202 ISO to compliment a .258/.352/.459 slash. As much as a deal in itself could be complicated, the fit is not. The Padres need right-handed power at first base. Contreras offers exactly that. Of course, you have to immediately navigate the aforementioned full no-trade clause. That's issue No. 1. Though if the Padres remain in contention in the National League, it's hard to imagine that as a significant hurdle to overcome. The Cardinals are rebuilding or retooling on some level to the point where the remainder of his contract could be spent with a non-contending club. One imagines the opportunity to compete in America's Finest City™ is an opportunity that the majority of players would find enticing. The contract represents the second complication. His deal, which runs through 2027 (with a 2028 club option), carries a $17.5 million AAV. As much as you'd love that level of cost-certainty for a steady bat in your lineup, whether the Padres can fit that into their payroll remains to be seen, given their much-more-significant needs that exist on the mound. But cost-certainty is cost-certainty, and that feels like an affordable price that fits within your contention window. If they can make the money fit, then it only enhances the logic. That, however, leads us to the third complication. The Padres have to have the prospects with which to part that St. Louis would find enticing. You're obviously not talking about one of the very elite bats that would require an elite farm system. But you are talking about an upper-tier hitter at a position of clear need. Even if the Cardinals are looking to get money off their books, it's not as if they're set to give Contreras away for the sake of freeing up money amidst a retool period. It will require at least one legitimate prospect or a volume in the way the Padres approached their deadline deal with Baltimore. In short, a hypothetical pursuit of Willson Contreras is the most logical position-player deal the team could pursue this winter. They need help on the right side of the plate. They have a vacancy at first base. Contreras offers a medium-term solution on both fronts. But they'll have to overcome a handful of complications toward reaching the logical path. Of course, if it was an easy process, then we wouldn't be talking about the San Diego Padres. View full article

The San Diego Padres registered their first notable transaction of the 2025-26 offseason earlier this week, bringing back pitcher Kyle Hart on a one-year deal with a 2027 option. It's not a needle-mover in any sense, but given the absence of depth in the pitching staff at present, it's the kind of necessary move (at a low price point) that the organization is likely going to seek as they build out their staff for next season. But determining exactly where Hart fits in the staff ahead of next season is anyone's guess. The numbers weren't great in his first season stateside after a year in South Korea. Deployed out of the gate as the fifth starter, Hart's first 21 innings featured a 6.00 ERA and 6.18 FIP across five starts in March and April. That the early season sample includes a six-inning, zero-run start against Colorado speaks to how brutal the rest of his outings were to start the year. As a result, Hart found himself bound for El Paso until July, save for a quick start at the end of May. When Hart returned, it was exclusively in relief. The results remained mixed, but at least not in a way that was putting an extra burden on an already-heavily-utilized relief corps. All told, Hart finished with a 6.66 ERA, a 6.56 FIP, a 15.5 percent strikeout rate, and a 5.5 percent walk rate as a starter (25.2 innings). As a reliever (17.1 innings), he checked in at a 4.67 ERA, a 3.14 FIP, a 29.0 percent strikeout rate, and a 10.1 percent walk rate. On the surface, it's an easy call. Hart was more effective as a reliever, not only in terms of statistical outcomes but in underlying trends. Being more matchup-centric worked in his favor as his hard hit rate was cut by eight percent (20.0) while he generated groundballs at a rate roughly 13 percent higher than as a starter (41.0). And while it's easy to declare matchups as the reason for his success, it's at least a little bit more complicated than that. The following is Hart's pitch usage from 2025: What's interesting is that against left-handed hitters, Hart never threw a changeup or a splitter. In every month, he peppered lefty hitters with sinkers and sweepers, as his cumulative pitch distribution would indicate. But righties weren't getting even close to the same mix. Not that you should expect them to. When Hart was working in relief, though, right-handed hitters saw more changeups in August than any other pitch type while the splitter was his second-most-used offering. It speaks to the overall chaos that one might expect to see when looking at Hart's pitch mix exclusively against righties: It's the look of a guy who didn't necessarily know what he wanted to do. Meanwhile, he was getting decimated by hitters of the opposite handedness. His .359 wOBA allowed versus righty hitters was more than 120 points higher than it was against lefties (.237). His strikeout rate was three percent lower (19.7 percent) and his walk rate three percent higher (8.2 percent) when he was facing a right-handed hitter as opposed to a left-handed one. His hard contact rate (by FanGraphs' reporting of it) was about 20 percent higher when facing a hitter of the opposite handedness. When you combine the chaos of Hart's mix against right-handed hitters with the actual results, you very much have the look of a guy who you want to deploy as more of a specialist (or, at least what can be deemed a specialist given the minimum-batter requirement for relievers these days). And it's not as if there's a real argument to be made at this point, either. Hart was considerably better as a reliever and vastly better against lefties. Keeping him in relief allows you to meld the two and find some sustainable results. How well that matches up against reality, however, remains to be seen. Exclusively working as a reliever is the obvious path. But the Padres likely signed Hart with an eye on a sort of swingman role considering an absence of starting depth (or, you know, actual starters) at present. Which means that some work is going to have to be done with his usage and the subsequent command to get him going toward at least an average track against right-handed hitters. Because the "success vs. lefties, throw everything to righties and find out if any of it works" modus operandi as a starter is exactly what the Padres do not need from Kyle Hart in 2026. View full article

What was already set to be a complicated offseason for the San Diego Padres got even more so with news that the Seidler family was exploring a sale of the franchise. Despite what appeared to be a little bit of financial wiggle room upon some impending departures from the 2025 roster, everything is in flux now. Of course, we don't have any confirmation on that. But, even if the Padres did want to run a payroll in the neighborhood of where they ended 2025 (about $211 million), that only leaves them with about $20 million given a projected $190 million for the 40-man roster at present. Regardless of the financial particulars, it appears increasingly likely that the team could explore a deal for at least one of their long-term position players. It's an idea centered around position players because position players is where they have volume on the long-term side. Each of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth are under contract until at least 2030. The pitching staff doesn't have that kind of action, with just each of Nick Pivetta & Yu Darvish locked into deals through only 2028 (the latter of which doesn't even have a clear path to finishing out the deal). Of the position players on the roster, it's Jake Cronenworth that is most likely to be moved. There have been whispers about such a deal before to the extent that teams were reportedly asking about him prior to the 2025 trade deadline. He's also the most easily-moveable name given his relatively reasonable contract that isn't as intensely backloaded as some of his counterparts on the active roster. It's an idea that has some merit, but whether the financial savings would do enough to compensate for his departure from the roster is a separate conversation altogether. The Case For Trading Jake Cronenworth Cronenworth is going to cost a shade over $12 million against the payroll through the 2030 season. His original deal was a seven-year, $80 million pact agreed upon ahead of the 2023 campaign. It was deemed a bit of an overpay at the time considering Cronenworth was set to move to first base, a position which didn't entirely fit his skill set, especially considering the power he demonstrated in 2021 (.194 ISO) fell drastically in '22 and has continued to fall since. Instead, Cronenworth has had to drive his approach to bring about value at the plate. He was a below-average bat in '23 (91 wRC+) and just a shade over in '24 (105 wRC+) before riding a spike in his walk rate (13.4 BB%) to a 117 wRC+ in 2025, his highest since that 2021 season. The frustrating thing with Cronenworth is that he hasn't been able to parlay that patience into anything meaningful. His ISO bottomed out at .131 in 2025 despite that jump in free passes, without any encouraging signs in the contact trends to accompany it; his barrel rate and hard-hit rate remained fairly in-line with what we'd seen before. And it's not as if he's a top tier defensive player at the keystone. He ranked 67th in Fielding Run Value (-2) at the position after finishing at a -4 mark the previous season. At this point, you're paying for the approach, because the power isn't on its way back and the glove hasn't been there in a handful of years in its own right (though bouncing between positions over multiple years likely doesn't help). The Padres need more power. They were a top-10 team in on-base percentage that failed to supplement that presence on base with any kind of impact. Freeing up the $12 million owed to Cronenworth could allow them to reallocate that bit of money toward more of an impact bat that would compliment the lineup more effectively. Should the Padres seek to move him, it's hard to imagine too many teams shying away from his market. Enough teams might be willing to pay for that approach and versatility, even if the latter comes with some shortcomings on the defensive end. The Case Against Trading Jake Cronenworth Even for a team in financial peril, it's hard to sacrifice stability in the name of $12 million. And despite not regaining the form he showcased over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Cronenworth has very much been a stable presence for a chaotic organization. For one, this is a reliable player. He's appeared in an average of 145 games over the last five seasons. The Padres have lost each of Tatis, Merrill, Bogaerts, and Machado for significant periods over the last few years. Even sans any notable power, the ability to remain in the lineup and bring that steady approach is something that the Padres can't necessarily afford to part with. It's hard to overstate the importance of that approach in itself. Sure, the Padres were a top-10 team in OBP, but they ranked only 15th in walk rate. Only Tatis comes anywhere near touching what Cronenworth has provided in terms of patience. On paper, the Padres are a team in possession of impact bats. If Cronenworth can bring that approach to the bottom of the order, the onus transitions to the players atop the lineup to make that matter. And, as long as we're considering things that shouldn't be overlooked, the instability wrought by a lack of a permanent defensive home is likely pinning down Cronenworth's ability to find success on the defensive side. One imagines that finding a longer term solution at first base and a suitable backup for the middle infield (beyond a spring training invitee making their way on the roster) would allow him to ply his trade effectively at second base in the way that he did back in 2022. At the end of the day, it's a $12 million price tag. That's not terribly cumbersome for most big league organizations, save the Pittsburghs or the Miamis of the world. Sacrificing the things Cronenworth does well to save a fairly minimal amount against the total payroll number doesn't seem like something that would actively work in favor of San Diego, especially given some of their shortcomings on the present roster. Otherwise, you're filling an entire side of the infield within the confines of the payroll, rather than just one spot. That's an entirely different ballgame. View full article

The San Diego Padres are in a weird place this winter. On one hand, this is a team that is on the cusp of title contention. They reached the National League Division Series in 2024 and won 90 games again in '25 on the strength of a really strong pitching staff. But with key arms set to depart (Dylan Cease, Michael King) or miss all of next year (Yu Darvish), a need for offense, and assumed budget constraints, it remains to be seen whether they can get over those final few steps toward championship realization. With that said, we can assume that at least some of their position players will have their names floating out in the trade ether. Whether that's in connection to filling a need or shedding additional dollars will add some complexity to the rumors, but given the number of (backloaded) long-term contracts on the books, it would probably make some degree of sense on paper to get the payroll sheet looking at least a little bit healthier. By now, you've probably seen some suggestion that Fernando Tatis Jr. could be among the names the Padres explore a trade of this offseason. He's under contract through 2034 on a deal that gets mighty pricey toward the tail-end. With his elite defense and an above-average bat (that has lost some power), one doesn't have to stretch to see the logic in moving him from a pure dollars perspective. But even with his power decline, Tatis still represents one of the most stable entities on this roster. His approach has improved while his quality of contact has remained as good as ever. As such, it's nearly impossible to imagine such a deal coming to fruition, both from a personnel and an optics standpoint. You're unraveling your pursuit of a title at that point with several ramifications to come after, including hurting franchise valuation (in case a sale actually happens). The same could be said of Manny Machado. On a contract that runs through 2033, we've seen Machado carry the offense for long stretches. Even if his defense has started to decline, the stability he provides in the lineup (even at a slight power decrease reflected in a .185 ISO in 2025) and in the clubhouse is something that the Padres aren't going to be terribly interested in moving. Beyond that duo, however, one imagines there's going to be some interest in the part of the Padres in exploring a move of one of their other two long-term position contracts: Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth. Bogaerts' contract is surely the one the Padres would love to move. His right-handed bat hasn't been a great fit at Petco Park, as reflected by a steep power decline since his arrival in San Diego (.123 ISO combined over the last two seasons). He was able to salvage some value after an abysmal start to the '25 season (104 wRC+) and has added improved baserunning and defense to his skill set. Teams could use that toolbox, in a vacuum. But — and as the Padres would probably realize by needing to replace him — it's a skillset that could be had for a lot cheaper. If a team were to take him on, it would require consumption of significant dollars on the part of San Diego. Such a deal would be a logistical nightmare, even if it would be the preferred move of the available candidates. Even for a team in need of help at shortstop that has a healthy financial outlook (think Detroit or, potentially, Toronto), it's not something that would come together with any sort of ease... and maybe not even any real financial benefit given the precarious spot in which the Padres are purported to be. Which is why Jake Cronenworth could be the likeliest to be moved of the longer-term position players on this roster. We'll explore the merits of a Cronenworth-specific move in the near future, but you've got a player whose original deal was for seven years and $80 million. He's never been the power bat that he appeared to be back in 2021, but he's a versatile player with a keen approach. His 13.4 percent walk rate was the 12th-best among qualifiers this season. Capable of playing either second or first, it's an affordable contract, even if it runs through 2030. Teams reportedly inquired on Cronenworth prior to the deadline, and if the Padres are looking to clear out some of their long-term obligations, then there's a certain logic to it. But that's the thing about moving any of these position players. Logic exists if you examine things from the Padre perspective. Clearing out money or term is in ownership's interest. But you leave a massive void in moving a Tatis or a Machado. Not to mention the brutal optics. You have to eat money to move Bogaerts. And you'd have to backfill the entire right side of the infield if you move Cronenworth, the most affordable of the bunch. It's quite a paradox which A.J. Preller will have to navigate this winter while simultaneously trying to build a starting staff from near-scratch and shore up the bullpen facing departures and potential transitions. It leaves a chance for a huge mess, though it does lend itself to plenty of intrigue, to say the least. View full article

When the San Diego Padres made the decision to move Fernando Tatis Jr. off his native shortstop position and into right field, it's difficult to imagine they expected the kind of output he's provided on the outfield grass. A multi-time Gold Glove recipient, Tatis Jr is now a multi-time Platinum Glove Award winner after securing the league-wide award again in 2025, this time alongside Bobby Witt Jr. Even with the arbitrary nature of each award — the Gold Glove has its own host of issues in acknowledging metrics, and the Platinum Glove is determined through fan vote — there's something to be said for the amount of hardware of which Tatis is now in possession since the transition. Regardless of the award logistics, the numbers back it up. He posted an Outs Above Average figure of 10 in 2023 and eight in 2025. Fielding Run Value, which takes arm value into account, bumps those numbers up to 13 and nine, respectively. Between those two seasons, Tatis Jr also combined for 44 Defensive Runs Saved. Bookending a '24 where he was slowed by a stress fracture in his femur, we know at this point what Tatis is as a defender: elite. At the same time, this is a franchise-caliber player by reputation. And as good as Tatis has been with the glove, his offense has continued to be a point of contention in his overall value to the team. The following is where his wOBA numbers stand since his stellar start back in 2019: There's obviously quite a disparity on either end of his lost 2022 campaign. And even within that disparity, Tatis has still, technically, represented an above-average offensive player considering an average wOBA is considered to be around .320. But when you talk about impact, a trait generally illustrated by power output, the Padres aren't getting it from their franchise star in quite the same fashion. Even if he's cut down his overall strikeout rate, driven up his walk rate, and maintained a steady rate of contact quality, the impact has been lacking. Much like the wOBA figures, Tatis' power numbers on either side of the '22 season are indicative of an intense decline. His ISO numbers read a respective .272, .295, and .328 across nearly 1,200 plate appearances prior to that year. Even if you're looking at neither of 2019 or 2020 serving as a full season, it does seem noteworthy that his largest power output came in the one that actually was. In the three years since, however, his ISO has fallen to .191, .216, and .178. And it's hard to get too wrapped up in health issues considering his highest power output of these last three years came when he was working through the stress fracture. It's not as if his strength suddenly disappeared, as much as a certain narrative may want that to be the case. The underlying contact trends — primarily hard hit rate and average exit velocity — are not far off from where they were in the three seasons prior to 2022. Instead, there appears to be some issues mechanically and with pitch selection that are pinning down his ability to create impact. We've explored both of these ideas throughout the season, but a quick glance at the numbers indicates a shallower attack angle (eight degrees), a shorter swing (7.3 feet), and an uneven approach in terms of pitch selection. Regardless of how it's happened or how Fernando Tatis Jr. gets back to where he was (assuming that's at all possible), there's a clear need for the Padres to get the purest version of their star back into the mix. There have been mere flashes over the last trio of seasons, but nothing close to what he was pre-2022. With some of the shortcomings on that side of the ball dragging down the roster, the Padres need their superstar to find some semblance of balance ahead of 2026. View full article

Considering some of the visible shortcomings on offense and defense, A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres should be fairly busy fortifying their roster this winter. However, there is no area of the organization more in need at present than that of the starting pitching group. Heading into the offseason, it was an objective truth that the team would need to address the front end of their starting five. With Dylan Cease set to hit free agency and Michael King following suit via his declining of a mutual option, that left a void in the available upside in the rotation. The news that Yu Darvish would miss all of 2026 after undergoing elbow surgery only further exacerbated the need to add on that front. As of this writing, the Padres have only five starters on their 40-man roster (Darvish notwithstanding): Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, JP Sears, Matt Waldron, and Randy Vásquez. Of that quintet of arms, only Pivetta appears to be a reliable entity ahead of the 2026 campaign. Musgrove may return early but is also coming back from Tommy John surgery, leaving not only his effectiveness but his volume in some question until he settles back into a usual groove. Each of Sears and Waldron struggled in a small sample for the Padres in '25, while Vásquez's issues with walks limit his upside to a No. 5 starter. It's not a terribly inspiring group and becomes even less so when you consider that Pivetta is due for at least some regression after a career season. With that, we know the Padres will be active in attempting to add to their rotation. But while it's difficult, if not entirely impossible, to overestimate someone with the aggression of A.J. Preller, the path toward making impactful addition seems rather difficult, even if the volume of options is abundant, On the free-agent market, you'll find names like Cease, King, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, and Brandon Woodruff, among others. Those that have been mentioned as trade candidates (to varying degrees) include Tarik Skubal, Hunter Greene, Freddy Peralta, and now Kodai Senga. In short, there are a number of roads down which Preller and the Padres could travel in order to bolster the front portion of their rotation. But how feasible is each? The Padres will have money to spend given the impending offseason departures of Cease, King, Robert Suárez, and Luis Arráez. They're coming off a season in which they ran a roughly $211 million payroll, about $40 million more than they carried the previous year. Sans additions and arbitration raises, they're at about $190 million as a projected payroll figure for '26. So, there's some flexibility there considering where they've run payroll in previous seasons. But, when one considers the effort to get that payroll down in the first place, is ownership going to feel compelled to add one of the names on the free-agent market given the associated cost? The cheapest projected deal of the free agents listed above is Woodruff, at a three-year, $66 million contract. That's still a sizable addition to the payroll, and that's for a veteran pitcher with a laundry list of injury issues who is tied to the qualifying offer. It remains to be seen how willing ownership would be to invest too heavily in such a contact, even with some of the freed up cash from imminent departures. One has to imagine, though, that an impact addition remains more likely via that route than a trade. While there are some super intriguing names floating out in the rumor mill ether, we have to remember that the Padres are sporting a fairly barren farm system in comparison to practically all other teams. The last MLB Pipeline farm system rankings stuck the Padres dead last among the 30 teams, which is hardly a surprise given Preller's continued aggression. But with so many of the prospects even in their top 30 still at the lower levels of the minors, it's very much a system that lacks the juice to execute a move for the needed upside in this rotation. Starting pitching comes at a premium cost, after all. Even Preller might find it difficult to move on someone he wants considering the other teams in need of rotation help. With that in mind, it's hard to see a clear path toward such an acquisition this winter. Obviously, if ownership is willing to put forth the money to be active in free agency, then some optimism can begin to manifest. In the meantime, though, a more likely route looks to be a volume approach in which they pursue more mid-tier arms and hope Ruben Niebla can work his magic. Again, we can't underestimate the Preller factor in all of this. But confronting the size of the need, which is massive, with the on-paper likelihood of effectively addressing said need... it just isn't a terribly rosy prospect in San Diego at the moment. View full article

Early November brought some news that was long-expected, as closer Robert Suárez opted out out of the remaining two years and $16 million on his contract. As such, the league leader in saves—who recorded 76 combined over the last two seasons—will handle ninth-inning duty for a new club in 2026. Fortunately for the San Diego Padres, they were prepared for this very scenario. The Padres ran as deep bullpen mix as anyone in 2025. Suárez combined with the likes of Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, and Jason Adam to comprise an intensely dynamic group of relief arms. The addition of Mason Miller only added to the stability offered by their corps of relievers. Miller's addition, in conjunction with his extended team control, led many to believe that A.J. Preller was accounting for the eventual departure of Suárez two months before the decision was even set to be made. That means that while the team will now be without Suárez, they're well-suited to handle things in his absence. While it's impossible to say that the team has gotten better by losing one of the game's top ninth inning arms, neither of the team's already-existent depth and the financial flexibility restored by his opting out are factors that should be ignored in discussing what shape the group takes next season. The most intriguing discussion to emerge from this is what now happens to Miller and Morejon, specifically. Estrada and Adam (and, to an extent, David Morgan) are going to be in relief. There's an outside shot at regular ninth inning work for one of them, but the respective paths of each of Miller and Morejon are going to say a fascinating amount about how this pitching staff is constructed for next year. It's all theoretical at present, but worth musing about in an abstract sense given how much time there is between now and the spring exhibition season. Miller's name has been floated as a rotation candidate for 2026. It was something discussed in Sacramento prior to his trade and followed him to San Diego, after injury forced him into relief in 2023. With the Padres set to lose each of Michael King and Dylan Cease in free agency, there's not only a volume need in the rotation, but a need for high-end stuff. Miller's combination of a historically good fastball and slider is tantalizing toward such a purpose, even if it's a move that would require more of his seldom-used changeup. After seeing Garrett Crochet pull off such a volume jump to immediate success, it stands to reason that Miller could replicate it given his powerful arsenal. At the same time, you do worry about those durability concerns manifesting again. It's not a dissimilar situation from that of Adrian Morejon. A former starter from within the organization, Morejon has had his own health battles that forced him into a successful relief stint. He doesn't offer the same strikeout stuff of Miller, but deploys his upper-tier velocity in limiting quality contact (with a 99th percentile Hard-Hit% in 2025). What sets him apart from Miller is that his stuff would likely play as a starter more seamlessly; Morejon utilized at least five different pitches in '25, including three different shapes of fastball. Regardless of which pitcher may or may not be better-suited for a starting role, there are multiple considerations of which to take stock as this offseason wears on. Those considerations appear more in the form of questions, as we have to wonder if one of Miller or Morejon grabbing a rotation spot automatically means that the other would remain in relief. Specifically, does one step into a starting spot while the other slides into the role vacated by Robert Suárez? Or is there a world where both take on a role as a starter while high-leverage relief innings are left to the likes of Estrada, Adam, Morgan, and a lefty-to-be-named-later (in Morejon's stead)? Does the potential for one or both to move to the starting group even make the Padres better considering how much of a strength their relief corps was last year? Considering the upside, it's easy imagine the Padres would be happy to allow both in their rotation as their health and performance would allow. Relief additions are cheaper (and shorter term) than starters, after all. So, it's unlikely that this is a one-or-the-other scenario. Still, how the Padres answer those aforementioned questions could inform how they choose to approach the offseason in terms of additions to the pitching staff. As such, there's a chance that we, as outsiders, have a good idea as to what opportunities for such a transition would look like depending on who and what acquisitions occur over the course of this winter. View full article

If you're looking at how the 2025 defensive awards shook out for the recently-completed Major League Baseball season, you're not going to find much representation for the San Diego Padres. In fact, Fernando Tatis Jr. was the list in both nominations and reception. The team's right fielder took home a nomination and subsequent victory for the Rawlings Gold Glove Award and was named the Fielding Bible Award winner for right field. There isn't any question that such recognition was deserved for Tatis Jr. His Fielding Run Value (nine) paced right fielders, while his Outs Above Average (eight) trailed only Arizona's Corbin Carroll (nine) among the group. His 15 Defensive Runs Saved were six more than any other National League right fielder. None of those represents a surprising output (given how much his defense buoyed his overall value in '25), but it's an impressive feat nonetheless. But, again, that shouldn't be the story here. Tatis Jr.'s defensive prowess should continue to earn him accolades for the foreseeable future; he already has a pair of Gold Gloves and a Platinum Glove to his name since moving to right field. Instead, the story should be about the absence of any other Padres among even the nominees, let alone the winners. The 2025 San Diego Padres were not a team built on the merits of their individual gloves. There wasn't a whole lot of turnover from a team that finished with a collective -15 FRV in '24 and were, again, constructed in such a way this past season to maximize their offensive output over defensive efficiency. There was improvement, at least, with a -1 FRV that stood 18th in the league in that regard. But it also seems noteworthy that the top FRV team in baseball was American League pennant winner Toronto (44), while the three teams directly behind them were also playing October baseball (mostly) for longer than San Diego (Chicago, Milwaukee, and Cleveland, respectively). That's not to say that defensive excellence is a prerequisite for overall success. But the Los Angeles Dodgers were, at least, average in FRV while sitting comfortably above average as far as other metrics go. As such, there's at least some semblance of improvement needed for the Padres on that side of the ball if they hope to keep pace with teams that made impressive runs this year. The issue, though, is where such improvement can actually take place in contrast for where such improvement is needed. You know you've got Tatis Jr. in right field. You also know you have Jackson Merrill, who posted a FRV of five and Xander Bogaerts (seven) under contract moving forward. That's, at least, three spots where the glove work is steady. Elsewhere, though, the picture is a bit murkier. Going around the infield, you're going to have Freddy Fermin behind the plate. Catching metrics are their own world within the realm of defensive statistics, but he's better than anyone the team had for the majority of '25. First base saw Luis Arráez post a FRV of -4 as a near-full-time player for most of the year. Jake Cronenworth filled into an overall -1 FRV and -2 mark at his primary spot at the keystone. Manny Machado, meanwhile, went for a -4 FRV at third base. Next to Merrill & Tatis on the grass, Gavin Sheets was worth -1 in left field and even worse with the eye test. That is, ultimately, four spots where you're a below-average team on the defensive side of the ball. Worse yet is that there's only one vacancy. First base is an easy area for the Padres to seek some defensive improvement. Arráez is unlikely to be back and the team isn't going to wade into the Pete Alonso waters that could bring an even lower defensive acumen to the cold corner. If the team sought an outside addition, old friend and free agent Josh Naylor lingered around average while trade candidate Willson Contreras was well above (four FRV). In house, Gavin Sheets was, technically, above average there across roughly 99 innings and could be a worthy plug-in given how he came on for much of the year with the bat. It stands to reason that you can rectify at least some infield issues with steadier play at first base. And that really should be a top-tier consideration here. Manny Machado isn't going anywhere. Nor is Xander Bogaerts and his lone defensive shortcoming, the 31st percentile arm strength. You can compensate for a lot by removing Arráez's glove from the equation and replacing it with one of a higher quality. The potential for an organic improvement wrought by one position isn't something that should be overlooked. That's especially because Cronenworth's issue lies in his range, and left field should be improved on the strength of the (assumedly) easy Ramón Laureano club option. First base isn't only the simplest means of improving the team's work on defense, but perhaps the most significant. Circling back to the premise at the top of these words, it isn't so much that the Padres are in need of more awards for their defense. There is a finite number of awards to be handed and 29 other teams across the league. Defensive awards are somewhat arbitrary in the first place. But that Tatis Jr. was the only player for which an argument could even be made speaks to the inefficiency this team demonstrated on that side of the ball in 2025. Considering some of the group's drawn-out offensive woes, you simply have to be better in order to support a pitching staff that can, at times, be forced into walking a tightrope. Luckily for the Padres, there's a clear path toward improvement. It resides at the first base bag. View full article