Randy Holt

In terms of the total body of work, no team in Major League Baseball has a better bullpen than the San Diego Padres. It's a group that sits atop the league in fWAR (7.6), ERA (3.06), and strand rate (77.3%), while ranking second in FIP (3.53) and third in strikeout rate (25.8%). With a playoff series against the Chicago Cubs now directly on the horizon, the calculus changes a bit for this group. Or does it? We do know some things about the shape of the Padres' relief corps as the postseason gets underway. For example, we know it's a group that will be without Jason Adam for the remainder of 2025 after a ruptured quad ended his season. We also know that it'll be Robert Suarez in any save situation. Despite questions about Mason Miller's role following his acquisition, Suárez has still been clinging to ninth-inning duty. It's hard to imagine that changes now. How the rest transpires is anyone's guess. We know that each of Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada will be leaned on heavily. David Morgan or Wandy Peralta could get some bridge work in the middle innings. If Mike Shildt is hard-pressed for a lefty while saving Morejon for higher leverage, we'll probably see Yuki Matsui in the mix as well. That's the group overall, though: Suárez, Miller, Morejon, Estrada, Morgan, Peralta, and Matsui. How each arm will respectively be deployed will depend heavily on Craig Counsell's lineup on the other side, though. In that vein, it's very possible that we'll see a lineup similar to the one the Cubs fielded on Saturday. That went as such: Michael Busch (L) - 1B Nico Hoerner (R) - 2B Ian Happ (S) - LF Kyle Tucker (L) - DH Seiya Suzuki (R) - RF Carson Kelly (R) - C Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) - CF Dansby Swanson (R) - SS Matt Shaw (R) - 3B That the Padres will likely roll out exclusively right-handed starters in some form leaves the above as close a configuration as possible to the one we'll see, with Tucker possessing the chance to move back into right field. In contrast, Suzuki moves back to the designated hitter spot. Regardless of that nuance, it remains a tricky lineup for Shildt to navigate in the bullpen game. Left-handed hitters are strategically placed within that lineup, and each one possesses the ability to create impact at the plate. Each of Busch & Crow-Armstrong reached the 30-homer mark during the regular season, and injuries don't necessarily detract from the elite hitter status that Tucker has maintained for the last handful of years. That creates a challenge in itself. Because while Busch (81 wRC+), Crow-Armstrong (59 wRC+), and Ian Happ (92 wRC+) have struggled against left-handed pitching, the rest of the lineup is comfortably above average versus southpaws this year. To say nothing of the fact that the Padres' left-handed offerings are minimal. Yuki Matsui has pretty dramatic reverse splits this year, with a .366 wOBA allowed versus lefty hitters against a .283 figure versus righties. That limits Shildt's options to essentially Adrian Morejon in attempting to isolate lefty-lefty matchups. But even with Morejon's dominance this year, the fact that he's still a largely contact-oriented arm (even against type) means that we might not see too much right-handed opposition for him. He will, nevertheless, be heavily utilized in those matchups as much as possible, with the chance to oppose a softer-hitting right-hander like Dansby Swanson or even Nico Hoerner existing as a possible opportunity for him to stretch his legs a bit. The other arm that could serve as an option for the Cubs' challenging left-handed hitters is Jeremiah Estrada. Like Matsui, Estrada is working with reverse splits that include a .317 wOBA allowed against right-handed hitters and a .264 mark against lefties. He's endured a challenging second half, but the body of work being strong against lefties and adequate against righties does allow for the greatest possibility of overlap among the Padres' relief arms. Where Mason Miller could factor in begins in the fifth spot in the lineup. Even with decent splits, it's likely that the Padres would want to avoid their right-handed fireballer against an upper half that leans 75% left-handed (Busch, Happ, and Tucker). Instead, working him in against the path of Suzuki, Kelly, Crow-Armstrong, Swanson, and Busch could be an efficient way of managing outs in the later innings. In that case, you're not only getting Miller against a predominantly right-handed group, but Crow-Armstrong has a Run Value of -3 and a strikeout rate near 35 percent against four-seam fastballs in 2025. That aspect provides a lot of runway for an arm that has otherwise allowed a .172 wOBA against righties this season. It's Miller's involvement that really helps to develop a clear picture of how this bullpen could take shape if you're content to let Miller loose against the fifth through ninth hitters in the lineup to preserve matchups, which allows you to work Morejon and Estrada against the upper half. Factor in Suárez in the ninth and you're, ideally, speaking for at least four innings of a game. Maybe more. Especially when you consider the David Morgan of it all. Morgan, in particular, is something of a wild card within the group as he's pitched to a 2.66 ERA and 25.9 percent strikeout rate. There have been some command issues (11.9 BB%), but he's also someone who can offer up success against right-handed hitting in a pinch. Or serve as a bridge before you reach the higher-leverage arms. Either way, the additional presence of Morgan's 2025 success opens up the innings coverage to potentially five or even six, depending on the starters' output. Factor in Matsui & Wandy Peralta as guys capable of getting you to the next one, and there's a lot of length here even in Adam's absence. In any case, though, it's a group that stands to get a great deal of work over the next three days. The rotation is, in itself, a bit of an unknown in the volume game, given their 18th-ranked innings per start (5.09). If a starter is struggling to get through the early innings, an occurrence that has become too frequent for Padre starters, and you combine that with the upside that the relief arms offer, it's hard to imagine Mike Shildt being too hesitant to get his bullpen active at Wrigley Field this week. View full article

When the San Diego Padres step into the box at Wrigley Field on each of Tuesday and Wednesday, they'll have a left-handed member of the Chicago Cubs' rotation looking down on them. An opponent down a budding star in Cade Horton will turn to the likes of Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd to begin the wild card set in Chicago. Whether that's good news or bad for a lefty-leaning San Diego lineup, however, remains to be seen. A typical Padres lineup features the following left-handed hitters: Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, Luis Arráez, Ryan O'Hearn, and Gavin Sheets. That's over half the lineup taking hacks from that side of the plate, with the late finger injury to Ramón Laureano essentially locking Sheets into left and some sort of combination of Arráez & O'Hearn at first base and designated hitter. As a team, the Padres have a collective wRC+ of just 96 against southpaws this season. That figure ranks 17th among their MLB counterparts in 2025. They're 15th in batting average (.244), 14th in on-base percentage (.316), and 23rd in isolated power (.130). From a standpoint of the Padres' own lefties, this is where each sits in terms of production this season: Jackson Merrill: .236/.278/.369, 20.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 81 wRC+ Jake Cronenworth: .248/.373/.353, 19.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 116 wRC+ Luis Arráez: .262/.294/.350, 4.9 K%, 3.9 BB%, 82 wRC+ Ryan O'Hearn (45 PA): .341/.400/.659, 26.7 K%, 6.7 BB%, 195 wRC+ Gavin Sheets (153 PA): .255/.301/.369, 18.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 89 wRC+ It's not a particularly encouraging distribution from the jump, especially when you compound those numbers with Fernando Tatis Jr being less effective against lefties (104 wRC+) and Freddy Fermin serving as a virtual non-factor (8 wRC+). Only Manny Machado (128 wRC+) and Xander Bogaerts (114 wRC+) have proven reliable with any kind of regularity in left-handed matters. And the bad news doesn't stop there. Each of Imanaga & Boyd has, somewhat predictably, been quite good against hitters of the same handedness. Imanaga allowed a .276 wOBA against lefties this season with a 23.4 percent strikeout rate and 3.62 FIP. Boyd, meanwhile, went for a .258 wOBA, 23.5 K%, and 2.63 FIP. Both pitchers, also predictably, have been quite a bit better against left-handed hitters than those that swing righty. None of the ideas presented thus far would appear to bode super well for the San Diego lineup. If there is a path forward, though, it's likely going to come against Shota Imanaga, for two reasons. The first is that his walk rate is actually quite a bit higher against lefties (6.9 percent) than it is against righties (3.8 percent). The Padres have walked at the league's sixth-highest rate against left-handed pitchers (8.9 percent). Some traffic on the bases would serve the Padres well, especially if it's their desire to get a starter removed early to get a right-handed arm out of the bullpen early. Additionally, Imanaga allowed a 52.0 percent hard hit rate and a .309 xBA against left-handed hitters in September. So, he's not on a terrific trajectory against same-handedness hitters at this particular moment in time. It, at the very least, offers quite a bit more optimism than a path against Boyd. In addition to Boyd pinning down the ability of left-handed hitters to reach base at all (.280 OBP), the quality of contact he's allowed throughout the year has remained rather steady and topped out back in May (43.4 Hard-Hit%). Beyond that, the Padres have to hope that his highest volume of innings since 2019 catches up to him. Or, that the lineup's right-handed group can go to work in a manner that includes Tatis Jr and, perhaps, even Fermin. That's also assuming the Padres, ultimately, get very little out of their left-handed hitters in the first place. But there is room for at least some level of optimism. Ryan O'Hearn has been quite good against southpaws. Jake Cronenworth has demonstrated a keen approach regardless of from which hand a pitcher is throwing. Jackson Merrill's September surge included a 44.0 Hard-Hit% that stands as his highest against left-handed pitchers in any given month. Gavin Sheets just had his best quality-of-contact month since June and could be in for an uptick in actual production if it weren't for a groundball rate near 50%. Even a bit of elevation from him could yield some dividends in the impact game. So, while it's not a terribly uplifting outlook overall, there are various paths that the Padres could take toward discovering some success against the Cubs' two left-handed starters. And it's not as if they need to do it for three games. If they could scratch through against even one of Imanaga or Boyd, that leaves them with the potential for a Jameson Taillon or Colin Rea matchup in a prospective Game 3. The ultimate point remains, however, that while some of the lineup may be stifled by the Cubs on the virtues of their lefty starters alone, there are some components working back toward San Diego's favor. It might just require a bit of patience or good fortune to get there. View full article

The San Diego Padres have not been a particularly strong offensive team in 2025. They rank only 19th in runs scored (678), 28th in isolated power (.136), and 16th in their collective wOBA (.310). Where they have succeeded, however, infielder Jake Cronenworth has very much been a fixture. There are a handful of components working against Cronenworth from a narrative perspective. From a chronological standpoint, the first is his breakout 2021 campaign. Therein, he posted an ISO figure of .194 while hitting 24 home runs. He's failed to replicate that power output in subsequent seasons. What that season did do, though, is earn him a contract that counts over $12 million in payroll beginning next year and running through 2030. While hardly a prohibitive amount in today's money, the team's constant battle against alleged payroll constraints has done him no favors when juxtaposed against the idea of that '21 campaign being an outlier on the power side. That doesn't mean Cronenworth is without value to these Padres, of course. Where the Padres have succeeded in 2025 is in their ability to work their way on base. Despite some of their issues producing runs, they rank eighth in batting average (.252) and 12th in on-base percentage (.320). Even enduring the worst power season of his career (.134 ISO), it's in this area where Cronenworth has been a regular provider for the San Diego lineup. Cronenworth's 2025 slash reads .246/.368/.380. His 20.6 K% does read as a career-high, but so does his 13.5 percent walk rate. It's the latter figure that has proven to be a key cog within this lineup. As a team, the Padres sit below league average (3.87) in pitches per plate appearance (3.84). Cronenworth, however, ranks eighth in this regard (4.22). That's eighth among 146 qualifying hitters, with an 86th percentile chase rate (22.2 percent). Which is why we care less about the strikeout rate, as it's clearly more a byproduct of his working deep counts than anything related to his ability to generate contact (for what it's worth, his contact rate and whiff trends (82nd percentile) are just about all within roughly one percent of his career averages). What Cronenworth has managed to do in this more recent stretch is parlay that approach into positive outcomes. There are a couple of things working in his favor, primarily from a mechanical standpoint. The first is bat speed: Apart from a small, 12-game sample in April that ended early due to a rib injury, May marked Cronenworth's highest power output across an individual month this season (.194 ISO). The bat speed was up coming off the injury before plummeting in the months that followed. It's back up now, though, which reads as especially important when you consider it in conjunction with the tilt of his swing path: It hasn't been a perfect process, as his actual attack angle is just now coming up after dropping to its lowest point in August, but there's a concerted effort here from Cronenworth to generate more elevated contact. Combine that with the bat speed, and you have a player that could very well be on the cusp of a power breakout. Sure enough, his expected slug is indicative of such a possibility: The caveat to all of this, of course, is that a bat speed increase does not necessarily correlate with a higher volume of power output. When we factor in Cronenworth's keen approach against the trends in his mechanics, there's absolutely reason to believe that he could be a massive factor for the team by the time we reach October. What a boost that would be, too. Despite strong months from each of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, they're still only 14th in runs, 19th in ISO, and 17th in wOBA this month. A .260 BABIP may be pinning down Cronenworth's numbers at present, but there's significant reason to believe that positive regression could be on the way in the (extremely) near future. The timing couldn't be better, should it come to fruition. View full article

The good news for the San Diego Padres is that they'll be playing playoff baseball. The bad news is that they'll be doing it without one of their key position players from the second half of the season. News that Ramón Laureano would be out for at least the first round due to a finger fracture certainly strikes a dour tone for a team that has put together a solid month of play ahead of next month's postseason. Given what Laureano had been offering the team, it's certainly reasonable to ask whether this is an injury the Padres are capable of weathering. They've gotten largely good news on the injury front in recent weeks, with Jackson Merrill missing minimal time and Xander Bogaerts returning from an injury of his own ahead of month's end. But losing Laureano out of the gate represents a notable setback for this group. Since joining the Padres, Laureano's 128 wRC+ is tied with Fernando Tatis Jr for the team lead, while his .220 ISO trails only Merrill over that stretch. He isn't particularly adept at reaching base as some of his counterparts (.323 on-base percentage), but he's been a source of impact at a position that has lacked it for much of the year. That impact could have been crucial in a first-round set, but now the Padres will have to look for it elsewhere on the roster. Lucky for them, it appears as though they might be better equipped to handle his absence than they would have at a different point this season. Maybe. Ironically, that good fortune is due to the player on the roster who stood to lose the most with Laureano's arrival. Sure enough, when the Padres made the trade with Baltimore, acquiring Laureano & Ryan O'Hearn, it was Gavin Sheets whose playing time suffered the most. Post-deadline, Sheets appeared in a starting role just three times over roughly three weeks, with a pair of pinch-hit appearances mixed in. Merrill's ankle injury renewed his opportunity in the lineup, with Sheets continuing to garner appearances (primarily as a designated hitter) even upon the former's return. As such, Sheets figures to be the primary replacement in Laureano's stead. It's worth noting that the month of September hasn't been kind to Sheets. He's slashing just .167/.265/.278 this month. Some of that's pinned down by a .204 batting average on balls in play. The more concerning part of it is that Sheets has begun to chase and miss at a higher rate than we've been accustomed to seeing this year. Last month, we explored Sheets' ability to make contact in 2025. There was an uptick in aggression, but his bat-to-ball skills had shown significant improvement since his time in Chicago. This month, however, he's regressed. A 41.4 percent chase-and-miss rate is nearly 20 points higher than it was last month. He isn't chasing more (it's a 0.6 percent rise from month to month), and his walk rate is actually up (10.8 BB% is his highest in an individual month). The contact element has just started to escape him, which is especially problematic considering the timing. The good news there, at least, is that Sheets has demonstrated a keen approach all year. His 4.16 pitches per plate appearance ranks 19th among qualifying position players, and he's been able to parlay the approach into his greatest power output since 2021 (.181 ISO). So it stands to reason that he can find that form again in order to be a regular contributor in left field in the absence of Laureano. Given Merrill and Tatis Jr reclaiming their status as two of the team's top hitters this month, the outfield trio should remain a steady group for this team ahead of the playoffs. Should Sheets fail to regain some semblance of form, however, things get a little murkier. What Laureano's absence does, above all, is remove some versatility from this lineup. Instead of rotating each of Sheets, Ryan O'Hearn, and Luis Arráez through first base and the designated hitter spot, now you're deploying Sheets in left and splitting the other duties between the latter two names. It removes Mike Shildt's ability to play the hot hand and instead forces each of the trio into the lineup every night. That's far from ideal, given O'Hearn's struggles and Arráez's up-and-down campaign (though Arráez has been far better in September). Ultimately, the on-paper version of the San Diego Padres has the ability to overcome the absence of Ramón Laureano not only for the first round of the playoffs but for as long as they're playing. Sheets in left and the O'Hearn/Arráez duo could be fine. With Laureano's overall production, however, it will be a difficult needle to thread, considering the context of the other names on the roster. It's a situation the team could certainly weather, but it's going to require some adjustments to be made on multiple parts if it's going to be made a reality. View full article

As of this writing, the San Diego Padres have yet to clinch a playoff spot. However, with their magic number to do so sitting at just one, it would be an entirely unthinkable collapse for it not to happen somewhere over the course of the next six games, which means that we can begin the process of projecting what things will look like when October officially gets underway. Standing with the end of the 2025 season in the clearest of views, one doesn't need to strain their vision to understand where the Padres have found their success this season. Among their major league counterparts, the team sits third in ERA (3.69), fourth in strikeout rate (23.9 percent), and has limited damaging home runs to the tune of the league's 10th-best homer-to-flyball ratio (11.0 percent). It gets even rosier when one looks through reliever-colored glasses; the team's 7.2 fWAR, 3.08 ERA, and 3.56 FIP are all tops in the league. Their strikeout rate (25.6 percent) also ranks fourth, and the HR/FB rate drops on that side of things to 9.1 percent (fifth). This is all to say that the Padres are where they are largely because of their arms. The depth has been tested, and there's been some need for some patchwork out of the starting gate. The pitching, though, has been the most consistent element of a team that has been anything but. It's that component that has the Padres standing on the verge of their fourth postseason appearance in the last six years. But, if the Padres are to make any noise in October, it's going to require something from their offense that they haven't gotten all year: consistency. It's not that the team is "bad" on that side of the ball. They simply haven't been able to gain traction for longer than a short stretch at a time. It exacerbates the impact of those periods where the team isn't so hot with the stick. Overall, they rank 13th in collective wRC+ (102) while checking in with the league's seventh-highest batting average (.252) and ninth-best on-base percentage (.321). They don't walk much -- an 8.3 percent walk rate sits only 17th -- but they don't strike out either, with the third-best K% in baseball (19.0). Where concern lies, however, is in their ability to generate consistent power. As a team, the Padres rank 28th in the league in ISO (.136). The only teams that sit behind them are the St. Louis Cardinals (.133) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (.118). Neither is the company you'd necessarily want to keep this year. Nor would you want to be behind the likes of the Washington Nationals (.143) or Chicago White Sox (.140). Nevertheless, that's where the team sits heading into the final week of play. To succeed in the postseason, you need impact. The ball doesn't necessarily need to find its way over the fence at every opportunity, but staffs get shorter and pitching, consequently, gets better in the postseason. You need hitters capable of breaking through the upper-tier mound work you're sure to face on the biggest stage in the sport. The 2023 ALCS featured two of the top eight ISO teams in baseball, in Texas (.190) and Houston (.178). The other side of the bracket saw the Philadelphia Phillies and their sixth-ranked ISO (.182) against the Arizona Diamondbacks (.158). While the latter team's figure sat only 19th in the regular season, it was still several shades better than this year's Padres. That trend continued last year when three of the final four teams -- the Los Angeles Dodgers (.189), New York Yankees (.181), and New York Mets (.169) -- sat in the top seven. Similar to Arizona the previous season, the Cleveland Guardians didn't rank highly but still sat a ways ahead of the '25 Friars in the ISO game (.157). On paper, the 2025 San Diego Padres are not any of those teams. They're not even the outliers. This is a team that has been quite good at the plate, but only at times. They're largely inefficient in matters of run production. So, when we consider all of that, is there anyone trustworthy enough to deliver when that impact is needed in the most meaningful games the team will play all year? The most efficient way to determine which Padres could bear some sort of positive impact on the postseason impact provided by the offense is with a scale. That's why we've elected to create the "Padres Playoff Trustworthy Scale." The premise is such: consider a player's ISO in conjunction with their hard hit rate in conjunction with their contact rate in conjunction with their walk rate. And that's kind of it. It's less a scale and more a jumbled mess of a way to determine how we feel about a player as the postseason draws closer. From there, we can sort them into tiers. For the purpose of this exercise, those tiers will be: for sure trustworthy, maybe trustworthy, probably not trustworthy, and certainly not trustworthy. There are no points for creativity here; above all, this is meant to take the temperature of where a player stands at a given point in time. In short, we're using a statistical basis to capture a vibe around a player's ability to produce. The contact and walk rates are indicative of a player's approach, while the hard-hit and ISO figures are designed to utilize that approach in a production-based manner. There's a great, big oversimplification to all of this, but with the calendar in late September, we've passed the point of trying to figure out who a player is. We know by now. With that, let's see who figures to be a player the team can rely on and who exists on the other end of the spectrum for the 2025 postseason, presented in reverse order. Tier 4: Certainly Not Trustworthy Luis Arráez ISO: .097 Hard-Hit%: 16.1 Contact%: 96.0 BB%: 4.9 The Bench (Jose Iglesias, Bryce Johnson) ISO: .079 Hard-Hit%: 29.0 Contact%: 78.1 BB%: 5.75 The name of the game in the postseason is impact, and it's hard to envision it coming to fruition from this trio. Arráez can hit his way on base, but we've also seen stretches where that aggression at the plate is a massive inhibitor to him reaching base with any regularity. An absurd volume contact is nice, but there's also something to be said about trading some of it off in exchange for a bit of exit velocity. Even if he's able to get into one of his hot stretches, the actual impact contact off the bat remains stifled by his overall skill set. Which is to say nothing of the fact that Iglesias' value is derived almost entirely from his versatility, and Johnson's wRC+ in part-time action in the last two seasons prior to '25 was under 50. Given that Elías Díaz has been relegated to No. 2 duties behind the plate and has a 43 wRC+ in September, we're not considering him a factor outside of serving as a late-game substitute. Tier 3: Probably Not Trustworthy Ryan O'Hearn ISO: .099 Hard-Hit%: 28.0 Contact%: 77.7 BB%: 8.2 Freddy Fermin ISO: .109 Hard-Hit%: 37.9 Contact%: 77.8 BB%: 4.1 Two of the Padres' deadline acquisitions on the positional side, Fermin has flashed a couple of hot stretches at either end of his arrival in San Diego. He's at a 124 wRC+ across his 43 plate appearances thus far in September, so we know there's a bit of offensive upside in the tank. At the same time, the Padres acquired him more on the strength of his glove work than anything else. So, while getting a bit of impact out of the bat would be a nice surprise, it would also be foolhardy to expect it. O'Hearn, on the other hand, is a bit of a disappointment in this regard. While he's never hit for the power that his frame and position might indicate, he's been a steadily above-average bat for the last three years in Baltimore. That hasn't been the case in San Diego, however. There has been some mechanical variance, and he's been whiffing heavily, both inside and out of the strike zone. If there was any sustainable performance that was indicative of a breakout being near, we might have a little more faith. But, even with some underlying trends that are showcasing better contact, the results haven't been there for us to believe that he'll be booming in the postseason. Tier 2: Maybe Trustworthy Ramón Laureano ISO: .226 Hard-Hit%: 50.8 Contact%: 75.6 BB%: 6.3 Jake Cronenworth ISO: .136 Hard-Hit%: 38.2 Contact%: 83.7 BB%: 13.3 Xander Bogaerts ISO: .125 Hard-Hit%: 38.8 Contact%: 80.2 BB%: 9.0 Gavin Sheets ISO: .186 Hard-Hit%: 46.3 Contact%: 78.2 BB%: 8.1 The Tier 2 group in the Trustworthy Scale is perhaps the most tantalizing one, considering where the upside could fall in October play. Laureano has essentially been the team's most consistent bat since his arrival at the trade deadline. Sheets looks like an entirely new player who took advantage of another Jackson Merrill injury to work his way back into the lineup after disappearing post-July 31. There are some swing and contact trends that are highly encouraging. Cronenworth has a keen enough approach that he's liable to demonstrate impact at any turn. Bogaerts may not be the one who's going to give you that late-game home run, but he's the one who's going to give your team a chance with a double that brings you within one. And that's why this group is No. 2. Any of them could pop at a given moment. There's legitimate upside across each name. However, it's also a group more likely to serve as the springboard rather than the actual driver of offensive success. If one of our Tier 1 names comes up, it feels likely you'll see one of them on base in a crucial moment. However, there shouldn't be an expectation of impact, considering the relatively low ISO figures and lower production in September for Laureano compared to August. It just wouldn't be a surprise if it did happen. Tier 1: For Sure Trustworthy Manny Machado ISO: .185 Hard-Hit%: 51.1 Contact%: 76.1 BB%: 8.0 Fernando Tatis, Jr. ISO: .171 Hard-Hit%: 52.1 Contact%: 75.2 BB%: 12.9 Jackson Merrill ISO: .191 Hard-Hit%: 42.4 Contact%: 75.5 BB%: 6.7 Machado is in this portion of the list largely as a courtesy; superstars do superstar things when their team needs them. The narrative loves his chances to pop in October, even if his 74 wRC+ in September doesn't. We've seen Machado at his best this year, so if he can recapture any semblance of the hitter he was in either May or July, the Padres will be cooking. In the interim, we'll take our chances in instilling trust in each of Tatis Jr. & Merrill. After a torrid start to the year, Tatis struggled to find traction anywhere that wasn't with his glove. Whether it was a health factor or a mechanical struggle, it's clear that it's an issue behind Tatis. His September numbers include a .205 ISO that stands as his best mark since April. Merrill, meanwhile, has had a handful of freak injuries that stalled his production for much of the year. But he's put his barrel to work in recent weeks and looks far closer to the hitter we saw in 2024 than at any point earlier this season. When it comes down to it, you've got to be able to trust your stars. If you don't have that, you're left with, well, the other guys. View full article

When the 2025 season got underway, it looked like San Diego Padres centerfielder Jackson Merrill was on his way to building on a strong rookie campaign. At least through the first 10 games of the season. Through that initial stretch, Merrill hit .378, reached base at a .415 clip, and posted an obscene 201 wRC+. The approach seemed to show some early refinement, with a walk rate a touch over seven percent. The most exciting component, however, was on the power side. Merrill's first 10 games featured a pair of doubles and three home runs on his way to a .297 ISO. None of this was sustainable, of course. It was largely the byproduct of a small sample. The results remained encouraging until a hamstring injury in early April. Then, there was the concussion in June, followed by an ankle injury after rolling it out of the box against the Los Angeles Dodgers last month. In short, the opportunities for Merrill to find a groove amid multiple injury issues have been scarce. It led to some fairly underwhelming numbers for the 2024 Rookie of the Year runner-up through the end of August. On August 31, Merrill carried a .261/.317/.413 line with a 105 wRC+. His strikeout rate (21.2 percent) exceeded last year's rookie mark (17.0). Most concerning was the absence of power, as Merrill's .152 ISO to that point represented a more than 50-point drop from last year's output (.208). That mark, as it stood, was also somewhat carried by his strong start given that he had individual months of .143, .100, and .109 in the ISO game, successively from May to July. There were signs last month that Merrill was due for a bit of a breakout in that respect, as he'd posted a .214 ISO prior to his third trip to the Injured List in '25. September, though, has seen an even better rebound than anticipated. Merrill's overall numbers this month (through nearly three weeks of play) are quite good. His .278 average is his best since May and his .316 OBP, while modest, is his top on-base rate since June. There are some notable trends on the strikeout & walk side, but the most notable element for our purposes lies in the power. Merrill is carrying a .407 ISO as of this writing, courtesy of three doubles, two triples, and five homers. It's not a complicated trend to explain either: Merrill's barrel rate has skyrocketed, with a 23.7 percent barrel rate on batted ball events thus far in September. That's an even 17-point jump from the rate he'd posted in August. It's a trend that comes largely courtesy of his work against fastballs. Merrill is swinging at fastballs more than any other pitch type this month (59.7 percent) with the hard stuff accounting for a 29.7 percent barrel rate. That's 13 percent higher than the next closest pitch type (off-speed). That Merrill is doing such impressive work against fastballs is a development of the utmost importance given where some of his trends against the other pitch types sits at present. He's whiffing at over 60 percent of off-speed pitches overall and nearly 37 percent of breaking pitches. Each one stands in heavy contrast to fastballs, where he's whiffing just 20.8 of the time. It's the pitch he's swinging at the most overall and chasing the least. On that side of his approach, at least, Merrill is demonstrating a sense of command on the hard stuff. That doesn't mean that there aren't adjustments that could help him to sustain some of this production, especially in terms of pitch recognition. Merrill doesn't have an abnormal swing rate overall, but he's striking out more than 28 percent of the time thus far in September. Such volume has come due to a 41.7 percent strikeout rate on off-speed pitches and a 38.5 K% on breaking pitches. Recognition seems key, as pitchers this month are throwing Merrill fastballs at a rate over 58 percent. That's sure to come down as they adjust. The good news is that we know Merrill to be plenty capable of doing this type of work beyond the fastball, as he had two months in 2024 where his barrel rate against off-speed pitches was the driver of his production. Remaining adjustments notwithstanding, this still sits as a crucial development for the Padres' center fielder. The 2025 campaign has predominantly been a year of woe for Jackson Merrill. The footing on the power side simply has not been there outside of that 10-game sample to start the year. That he's dialing in his approach to be aggressive on fastballs—and finding the desired outcomes as a result—could not be a more welcome development for a team in need of offense up and down the roster as October looms. View full article

At no point in his brief career with the San Diego Padres has Ryan O'Hearn gotten on track. The Padres acquired O'Hearn & Ramón Laureano from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for several prospects ahead of July's trade deadline. On the position player side, they also brought in Freddy Fermin from the Kansas City Royals to serve as an upgrade behind the plate. Laureano has provided stability in the outfield while serving as the team's best hitter in the second half, and Fermin has been an important addition from a defensive standpoint (even if his bat only appears occasionally). O'Hearn, meanwhile, has struggled mightily. When the Padres acquired O'Hearn, they were getting a hitter that came with a .286/.382/.458 slash line and a 136 wRC+. One who struck out only 16.3 percent of the time against a strong 12.2 percent walk rate. Since arriving in America's Finest City™, though, O'Hearn has regressed just about everywhere. His slash with San Diego is down to .242/.319/.379, while his wRC+ has fallen to the below-average side of the threshold (98). Worse yet, his strikeout rate has ballooned to 24.7 percent, in conjunction with a plummeting walk rate (8.8 percent). While that output features no shortage of alarming trends, it's the strikeout rate that has immediately presents itself at the center of O'Hearn's woes in San Diego. More specifically, O'Hearn has had a tough time making contact altogether: What wasn't so much a problem in August has emerged as a serious one here in September. And the fact that O'Hearn is experiencing his worst month of swing-and-miss in 2025 is only scratching the surface of concern. especially when you consider from where the whiffs are coming: O'Hearn's whiffs inside the strike zone have skyrocketed since joining the Padres. That's an alarming trend on its own, of course. Factor in the additional fact that 31 percent of those in-zone whiffs are coming on fastballs (almost 10 percent higher than any pitch type), and it really begins to incite a certain level of panic. For what it's worth, this does appear to be a mechanical issue rather than anything within the approach. O'Hearn's swing tendencies and approach to the zone have varied only slightly from month to month this year. Other than a June blip where he swung at many more off-speed pitches while still in Baltimore, nothing would indicate that he's doing anything different in that respect. Mechanically, though, there are some elements of the swing worth noting. Upon arrival in San Diego, O'Hearn's bat speed dropped from 72.1 MPH, on average, to 71.2. His average attack angle fell from 13 degrees in July to just nine in August. His tilt and swing length didn't change in too notable a fashion between the two months, but the two former components may have a lot to say about from where these struggles are coming, especially given that each of those stats has started to come back up thus far in September. O'Hearn's bat speed has crawled back up only slightly (71.5), but is at least closer to what he'd been putting up in the months prior. The attack angle has steepened back out to a 12 degree mark that sits more in line with what he'd been doing previously. Perhaps it's no surprise, then, that his hard hit rate is back up about five percent (30.0) and his average exit velocity is up about two miles per hour (87.5). He's also been able to elevate more, with an identical flyball rate to August and a line drive rate up about three percent (23.3 percent). That those numbers are back on the rebound suggests that the mechanical issues were at the heart of what was pinning down O'Hearn's ability to produce since his arrival (in addition to the whiffs). Of course, now he needs to get the contact volume going in the right direction and for luck to fall back in his favor. While getting his mechanics back on track is leading to some encouraging underlying trends in the contact game, O'Hearn is still striking out almost 25 percent of the time and has a BABIP of just .267 in September. It's not ideal to need both things to fall in your favor, but the higher the contact volume, the more chances you have to get the BABIP to level out. As such, it stands to reason that if O'Hearn can get the former getting in the right direction, the latter won't be too far behind. View full article

Sitting just 2.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West and five games clear of the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card, it's as close to a certainty as ever that the San Diego Padres will be playing postseason baseball. Of course, it hasn't been an easy road to get to even this point, mostly due to the offense. If you've followed this space for any length of time, you know that the offensive woes have been a central focus. And it's come for a variety of reasons. Injuries (Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill), down years (Luis Arráez), and inconsistency (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado) are all sprinkled across the spectrum, with each factor working together to prevent the Padres from, well, working together. It feels like this is a team that has failed to be on the same page at the plate at virtually any point this season. Even now, as the team has started to post runs at a higher rate, it doesn't quite yet feel like they've reached that point, regardless of what the numbers say. As such, the turnaround has been somewhat quiet. What that doesn't do, however, is undermine the notable change that has occurred in this group in the second half. The first half iteration of the Padres was a group that was impressive in virtually zero ways. The following is where they sat, collectively, regarding a handful of key offensive categories: AVG: .246 (17th) OBP: .315 (17th) ISO: .129 (28th) K%: 18.9 (3rd) BB%: 8.7 (14th) Contact%: 79.0 (6th) Hard-Hit%: 36.7 (29th) wRC+: 96 (16th) Despite striking out at one of the league's lowest rates and creating contact at one of the highest, the team was unable to parlay that into much meaningful contact. It's not particularly surprising, though. Merrill was out for a good chunk of the first half. Each of Tatis Jr. & Machado struggled to gain traction. Bogaerts got off to a brutal start. Arráez merely existed. To say nothing of the fact that this team was rolling out names like Brandon Lockridge, Jason Heyward, and Martín Maldonado early on (none of which are still with the organization). Quality contact begets offensive impact, and the Padres were unable to create much of the former, leading to little surprise in their inability to manifest the latter. While the second-half Padres haven't been entirely able to erase the memory of their offensive ineptitude from the first half, they've certainly shown growth: AVG: .262 (5th) OBP: .331 (5th) ISO: .149 (24th) K%: 18.8 (3rd) BB%: 8.1 (17th) Contact%: 78.7 (6th) Hard-Hit%: 38.9 (24th) wRC+: 112 (7th) With the exception of the walk rate, which has dipped slightly, the Padres have shown collective growth across the board. Some good fortune has played a role — the team BABIP'd .285 in the first half against .304 in the second — but they've upped the flyball rate by a couple percent on their way to creating 20 points more worth of isolated power in the second half. The increase in the resulting production is due to a couple of key factors. One is the arrival of Ramón Laureano. While his former Baltimore comrade Ryan O'Hearn hasn't experienced the same level of success, the outfielder has helped bring stability to the left side of the Petco Park grass in slashing .281/.335/.510 and posting a 127 wRC+ that sits as the best among regulars in the second half. The team is also getting more out of names that were already on the roster. After a first half that featured multiple injured list stints and an absence of power, Jackson Merrill has bumped his ISO by more than 70 points in the second half (.225). After being benched initially following the Orioles' acquisitions, Gavin Sheets is ISO'ing .212 in the second half, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has his up to .250 in September. Machado's is at .277. So while someone like Arráez is always going to be a ghost in the impact game and names like Jake Cronenworth or Xander Bogaerts are past providing much on that side, there's a certain rounding into form that's taking place within the lineup, particularly this month. And that is, ultimately, what has changed with the Padres in the second half. Aside from a key trade acquisition, they're simply getting more out of the bats that they were expecting to get more out of. It's hard to imagine, given how the season has transpired, but if the team is, in fact, getting on the same page at the same time, it could serve as quite a springboard as we head into an October in which the Padres will be participating. View full article

As a collective, we've spent a lot of time talking about Xander Bogaerts in 2025. His early season struggles and term remaining on his contract compounded for a sizeable volume of negativity surrounding the San Diego Padres shortstop back in March & April and into May & June. It wasn't necessarily a rush to judgment given the prolonged struggles on the heels of a woeful 2024 season. Nevertheless, a team starved for consistent offense could nary afford to be without a starter at a position lacking depth. Bogaerts hasn't appeared in a game for the Padres since August 27th. He fouled a ball off his foot and was placed on the Injured List on August 29th with a fractured foot. While his outlook for postseason availability remained relatively optimistic, getting through the final month without their starter at the six wasn't going to be an easy task considering the available replacements. As of this writing, the Padres have played an even dozen games sans Bogaerts. The team has averaged 4.4 runs per game over that stretch. That number, however, is somewhat skewed by double-digit outbursts against Minnesota and Colorado over the 12 games. In between those games, the team has averaged just 3.0 runs per game in his absence. That might seem like cherry-picking, but it does speak to the steadying presence that the team is missing without Bogaerts in the mix. The following is Bogaerts' expected wOBA over the course of 2025: There's a downward progression in August that appears to be wrought by some bad luck (a 60ish-point drop in BABIP from July) and comes despite making quality contact at a higher rate than he has at any point this season. Disregarding that blip until it becomes a trend, Bogaerts has been well above the league average in wOBA since the start of June. Which is important not only for a Padres team that has largely failed to be consistent on offense this year but in navigating why his now imminent return is so crucial for the team's fortunes down the final stretch. On Wednesday, Bogaerts was cleared to resume baseball activities. We don't know what the timeline actually looks like for a return to play, but we do know that even this bit of optimism comes at an important time. For one, Jose Iglesias is labeled as day-to-day after a hit-by-pitch that forced him to leave Tuesday's game. Even when healthy, though, the results haven't been there. He has just three hits in 29 plate appearances in Bogaerts' stead, posting a wOBA of only .266 in nine games. Not that a different outcome was expected; that's all fairly in-line with a player hitting .223 and wOBAing .258 on the season. And Mason McCoy hasn't offered much in his minuscule opportunity. Despite some thought from this space that he could offer a touch more upside than the veteran Iglesias, McCoy has just nine plate appearances since August 27th. He's managed just a single hit while being deployed primarily as a late-game defensive replacement in order to allow Iglesias to continue to move around the infield a bit. None of that is surprising, of course. The Padres were never in possession of much upside beyond Bogaerts at the shortstop position. Unfortunately, that's come to fruition in exactly the expected fashion. Which is why news of Bogaerts' clearance to resume baseball activities is so crucial. Again, we don't know what the timeline may look like. The team will likely take his rehab process somewhat slow in order to avoid any setbacks that would impact October. It's possible that they may wait for the final couple of games of the season entirely as a projected timeline. Such an estimate would allow him to at least get his feet wet again before we head into postseason baseball. Nevertheless, this development, on its own, is still a welcome one for a player with far more importance than we could have expected just a few months ago. View full article

No team has received more value out of their bullpen than the San Diego Padres. Their 6.9 fWAR from the group is tops in the league by a wide margin, while the relief corps sits first in ERA (3.09), first in FIP (3.57), fourth in K% (25.0 percent), and third in hard hit rate against (37.6 percent). That they've done so, especially in regard to the WAR figure, while throwing just the 10th-most innings among their Major League counterparts speaks to how impressive the group has been. Jeremiah Estrada has been a central fixture in all of that. He ranks 32nd among qualifying relievers in fWAR (1.2), mostly due to the fact that he currently sits seventh in strikeout rate (34.9 percent). While it hasn't been quite on par with his breakout 2024 campaign, it's hard to deny his place among the game's highest-upside relievers. The percentile rankings help to illustrate just that: The above visual is indicative of Estrada's stuff, above all. At the same time, there are a handful of second half developments that have called Estrada's value to this relief group into question, especially when one examines some of the shortcomings present in said visual. The following is where Estrada lands, statistically, in each half to date: 1st Half: 43.0 IP, 2.93 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 33.5 K%, 8.9 BB%, .278 wOBA 2nd Half: 22.2 IP, 4.37 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 38.9 K%, 8.4 BB%, .316 wOBA We're obviously only working with a sample about half the size thus far in half No. 2, but the ERA, in particular stands out. That figure is mostly wrought by a pair of brutal outings, including a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers back on August 24, and a shaky win in Colorado on September 6. The latter contest was one the Padres led 10-2 but had to squeeze out by a much narrower 10-8 margin. Ultimately, there are some things Estrada has done well in the second half. Unlike the ERA figure, his FIP indicates that he's only been marginally worse overall while posting strikeout and walk numbers that are each actually better than what he turned in in the first half. There is, however, one primary reason to worry that we may not be through the shaky outings as we move into the middle of September: After his best contact month in August, Estrada has seen the quality of contact against skyrocket in the second half. It's a bit of a paradox, as he's seen the K% increase steadily over that same timeframe, with September representing his highest mark in an individual month (50.0 percent). But, while the punchouts are on the rise, we have the above visual to reckon with, in addition to what the expected metrics have to say: At .115, his xwOBA against peaked (as in, was at its best) on August 15. In the month since, it's been steadily on the rise. Our first question is, of course, why? Usage, in itself, does offer a likely explanation. Throughout the year, the four-seam fastball has represented Estrada's most utilized pitch. In the first handful of months, he was throwing the pitch at or just under 60 percent of the time, with his split-change hybrid serving as his secondary offering. The slider that had served that role in previous seasons took a back seat to the other two. Since the start of August, however, we've seen the four-seam and splitter usage dip while the slider has taken over. In August, Estrada threw his fastball 50 percent of the time. Thus far in September, it's at just 45.3 percent. The splitter, meanwhile, has dropped by five percent over the last three months, currently sitting at just 20.9 percent. In between, the slider has seen an increased role in his arsenal, rising from 13.2 percent usage in July to 33.7 percent in September. The issue is that the slider hasn't been a particularly consistent pitch since its increase. In August, it was responsible for the highest amount of swing-and-miss. But, it also had a .475 xwOBA against. The results haven't been there in September, as the four-seam has actually checked in higher on the whiff side. The slider has also seen a 50.0 Hard-Hit% in each of the last two months. The reason for the change remains unclear; it's possible that the grip of his split-change pitch might be cumbersome over the course of a full season, but that's purely speculation. It's also not one that has yielded pure benefits. Instead, it's led to more variability in Estrada's game. That feeds directly into a second question around whether it's something we should be worried about moving forward, especially in a now-depleted bullpen that is without Jason Adam for the remainder of the year. It's somewhat unusual for a pitcher to change usage so drastically at this point in a season. Estrada's slider has been an effective pitch for him in the past, but the way the fastball-splitter combination played at the beginning of the year was indicative of a positive evolution in his toolbox. The reintroduction of the slider to this extent appears to be almost directly responsible for the paradox in which Estrada is currently living. It's getting him more whiff, yes. But, when it gets touched, it's getting touched up. It'll certainly be interesting to see what shape his usage takes moving forward. He's clearly dedicated to implementing that slider with more regularity. But should it be coming at the expense of the splitter, given where results have landed for that pitch? In either case, it's necessity that Estrada gets himself—and his pitch mix—sorted. Adam's absence means that Estrada is as essential as ever. The Padres can't have such a crucial arm in-between pitches as the postseason creeps ever closer. View full article

Considering how velocity and movement have evolved in baseball over the last handful of years, a certain archetype has emerged, predominantly in the bullpen. Two-pitch pitchers are the flavor of the day, with one of those pitches checking in as a high-velocity fastball of some sort and the other coming out of either the breaking or off-speed category. These two primary pitches collaborate in generating a high number of swinging strikes. While this might read as something of an oversimplification, it's also something that the San Diego Padres employ in force in their own relief corps. Robert Suarez. Mason Miller. Jeremiah Estrada. The San Diego 'pen is one that runs deep in terms of velocity, movement, and overall volume while leaning heavily on two primary pitches. And, unsurprisingly, it's been quite effective. As a collective, Padre relievers sport the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the sport (24.6 percent) and the fourth-highest whiff rate (12.7 percent). They've induced a chase rate that trails only the New York Yankees (33.4 percent). Somewhat surprising, however, is the fact that Adrian Morejon is not one of the major contributors to those specific efforts. Don't get it twisted; Morejon has been one of the very best relief pitchers in Major League Baseball in 2025. His percentile chart would tell you as much: Among 156 qualifying relief pitchers, Morejon ranks 16th in innings (65 1/3), fourth in ERA (1.79), fifth in FIP (2.18), and second in hard hit rate (28.5 percent). Expected metrics love him, too; his 2.17 xERA and .237 xwOBA each rank third. Given the combination of his status among his reliever comrades and where he lands on the percentile spectrum, it'd be fairly objective to note that Adrian Morejon has emerged as one of the premier bullpen arms in Major League Baseball. What's impressive, though, is that he's doing it in a sort of defiance of his archetype. That archetype, of course, is the two-pitch, high-whiff arm that has become almost a necessity across the relief pitching landscape. It isn't a total defiance, however. For one, Morejon is a two-pitch pitcher. He's thrown his sinker about 61 percent of the time this year and his slider roughly 35 percent of the time. He's also bringing elite velocity to the table. While it isn't completely top-tier velo, a 93rd percentile fastball would still fit the bill. To say nothing of the movement he's getting from the slider (almost 37 inches of vertical drop). Instead, we need to look to a more specific component of Morejon's game in discovering where he's actively working against the type of pitcher we might expect: the strikeouts. As much as the top of the various leaderboards features Morejon's name fixed in a prominent position, the strikeout game is where one is required to do a bit more searching. His SwStr% comes in at just 10.5 percent (unsurprising given his 37th percentile whiff figure) and is the 110th-ranked rate among that reliever group. His strikeout percentage, meanwhile, sits only 59th (25.7 percent). Not that this is leading us to perceive Morejon as a reliever of lower quality. He's clearly one of the top arms in that role. It's more than it leads us to two specific questions. The first of which is how he's managing to register so few punchouts against many of his counterparts with similar skill sets. The other is the manner in which he's finding success despite pitching at a lower rate, which is almost a prerequisite for success in relief at the game's current level of evolution. Our first query is actually a fairly easy one to answer. The sinker is Morejon's primary offering. It's generally not a pitch type that's going to lead to whiffs on its own. For that, you'd need a fastball of a different variety. Instead, a sinker is almost designed to generate contact rather than avoid it. Morejon wants you to swing at — and hit — his sinker. The result is a swing-and-miss percentage lingering around just 15 percent, but getting the ball on the ground about 56 percent of the time. When that's the pitch you're throwing at as high a volume as Morejon is (over 60 percent of the time), it's quite reasonable not to expect to see too much on the strikeout side. Those that he does register are wrought by the slider, with which he's garnering a whiff rate (39.4 percent) and a strikeout rate (36.4 percent) more than and nearly double the sinker, respectively. But even sans strikeouts, his deployment of the sinker at a high volume is leading to its own brand of success. Morejon has a 56.3 percent groundball rate and a Pull AIR% of only 5.9 percent with the sinker. His overall figure in the latter category is a third-ranked 7.0 percent, which means that the sinker is doing a healthy part of the work toward keeping the ball on the ground. It's a number of factors to stack. He's getting the minimal barrel output from opposing hitters. He's getting the ball on the ground and avoiding the pull-air combination that has allowed so many hitters to thrive in 2025. The slider is there when he needs the whiff, but the contact game is where Morejon is making his bones this year. Velocity, sure. Movement, yes. But the true driver is location: The above visual represents the work Morejon has done with his sinker, specifically. That's a whole lot of gray, representing an out in the field. Factor in the strikeouts, and there's a whole lot of good being done against the little bit of production you see on the part of opposing hitters. Morejon's development has been a key factor in the San Diego bullpen's success this year. The possibility exists that he returns to his starting roots at some point. The form his usage takes at that point will be fascinating. In the meantime, it's important to acknowledge that despite fitting the profile of many of his relief counterparts across the realm of Major League Baseball, Morejon is finding his success in a way that stands quite opposed. He's not any worse for it, either. If anything, it's an example of a player executing exactly what works for his own success in trying too hard to pursue the punchout side of things. View full article

The San Diego Padres lost another game on Wednesday. It was their sixth loss in their last seven games, and a sweep at the hands of a rather listless Baltimore Orioles squad (which followed a series loss to a Minnesota Twins club that traded virtually everybody they could prior to last month's trade deadline). The team remains in the hunt for the division lead (2.5 games back of Los Angeles), but things have gone south fast to start the month of September. At the center of the team's latest tale of woe is the Wednesday start from Nestor Cortes. The same Cortes who looked so strong against the Dodgers barely two weeks ago. Therein, he threw six innings of one-hit ball in a crucial game against an upper-echelon team. His pair of subsequent starts, however, have not featured remotely the same level of efficiency that Cortes was able to demonstrate there. The first sign of trouble emerged against the Twins on Friday. Cortes was only able to work three innings, ceding five hits and a pair of walks en route to allowing three earned runs. He threw 66 pitches before being lifted with no outs in the fourth inning. The bullpen contingent of Wandy Peralta, David Morgan, and Yuki Matsui couldn't hold it down in relief, as each allowed at least a run in addition to what Cortes' short outing had wrought on the scoreboard. Things were much worse on Wednesday, however. Cortes wasn't even able to replicate his work from the prior outing, as he only worked to one out into the third inning. Across those 2 1/3 frames, he walked three Orioles hitters and allowed seven hits, four of which were home runs. It's the latter component of the line that represents the largest issue, because this isn't the first time we've seen this from Cortes in 2025. Back on March 29, Nestor Cortes made his first start with the Milwaukee Brewers against his old mates out of the Bronx. He allowed five home runs in that game as torpedo bat fever gripped the nation. Four of those came in the first inning. It was a trend we saw early in his tenure in San Diego, as Cortes had a similar outing against the San Francisco Giants on August 18. There, he allowed a trio of homers in the first inning, including back-to-back shots to open the game. Cortes was able to settle in and work into the sixth inning, but it was a game that the Padres would go on to lose. Which allows us to circle back to Wednesday's start versus Baltimore. Things started with a leadoff home run off the bat of Jackson Holliday. Cortes' first inning included an addition hit, a walk, and another hit before he was able to close out the side. After working through an uneventful second, things went off the rails in the third. A walk and a single got the inning underway before the outcomes read homer-homer-homer from each of Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Alex Jackson. The start was a microcosm of Cortes' 2025... in two ways. The first is the home run angle. Across 34 1/3 innings of work in '25, Cortes has a home run rate against of 24.5 percent. The highest among qualifying starting pitchers is St. Louis' Andre Pallante, at 18.7. Tampa Bay's Shane Baz follows at 16.9. If we changed the criteria to pitchers with just 30 innings to their name at minimum, the Athletics' J.T. Ginn takes over at 26.7 percent. The difference, of course, is that Ginn plays his home games at a minor league park for a team not remotely in playoff contention. Cortes, who holds down the second spot, has no such luxury. The homers are a massive problem. That's especially true given factor number two, which is when the home runs are primarily manifesting. Courtesy of Baseball Reference, here is where issues are presenting themselves for Cortes over the course of a ballgame: It's not a mystery as to what is plaguing Cortes in his poor starts, which are starting to pile up. A .421 average and .488 on-base percentage is ugly enough as it is. But the real issue is in the nine homers. Of the 13 total home runs that Cortes has allowed this year, nine have come in the first inning. He's been largely fine elsewhere. If we wanted to extend this to overall performance splits, Cortes has a 7.53 ERA and 11.65 FIP the first time through the order. That drops to 6.89/6.27, respectively, the second time and 0.00/4.52 in those rare instances in which Cortes has worked to a third pass through the order. The ultimate point here is that Cortes is having issues getting out of the gate. He can be fine once he settles in, but there's a real issue confronting the beginning of an outing. Which presents two possible solutions. The first simply requires Cortes to be better to start individual plate appearances, both at the top of an inning and the start of the plate appearance itself. He's demonstrated a tendency to groove a first pitch for a strike, reflected in a .429 average and .500 OBP to the first batter of a game and a .273 average/.368 OBP to the first batter of an inning. Further, if opposing hitters are swinging at the first pitch of an appearance, they're hitting .385, reaching base at a .419 clip, and have hit seven homers. There's an obvious need for improvement from the jump, in whatever form that needs to take. The solution that has yet to be explored is that of an opener. Even in the absence of Jason Adam, the Padres' bullpen runs deep. They have a number of bridge arms that could be serviceable in the first inning, including someone like David Morgan. Getting the first inning squared away and then deploying Cortes as a bulk reliever could help to relieve him of some of the issues early in games. Either way, there's a drastic need for a change in the approach toward Nestor Cortes outings. This isn't a rotation that runs particularly deep, a fact that's only being made more worrisome with each inefficient outing from Dylan Cease and the sustained absence of Michael King. Whatever form the solution may take, one is certainly needed if the team is to derive any value out of Cortes' arm down the stretch. View full article

There was a point this year where it looked like shortstop was a position of dire need for the San Diego Padres. Year 3 of the Xander Bogaerts deal looked to be an imminent disaster and, with the team struggling to find offense, a way out of the contract was floated by many across the baseball blogosphere. It's been rather quiet on that front since, however. The reason for that is once we worked our way through that tumultuous period, Bogaerts has gone on to have a solid year for the Friars. In fact, he's been almost entirely average as a performer. Given where the Padres should be with some of their other pieces on offense, that's something you're more than happy to accept out of the six. But, since the start of June, he's also been one of the better players the position has to offer. Since June 1, Bogaerts ranks 12th among 25 qualifying shortstops in fWAR (2.1). He also sits 12th in wRC+ (112), seventh in strikeout rate (15.7 percent), 13th in walk rate (7.3 percent). His modest ISO (.145) checks in at 16th, but his nine steals since that point rank 11th. From a full season standpoint, Bogaerts is carrying a .262/.330/.387 slash with a 103 wRC+ and 20 steals. He's compensated for his sharp power decline with a certain prowess on the bases, including the decent swipe volume and a 1.5 BsR metric that pegs him as an above-average runner in more than just steals. In short, the Padres have had a decidedly average player in most respects manning shortstop for them in 2025. The contract, obviously, does not match the production. But, considering where things stood just a few months ago, it's production you'll happily take in the mix with such bats as Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill elsewhere in the lineup. It's a worthwhile skill set to compliment those stars, at the very least. Which is going to make replacing even that average production quite difficult, especially when your shortstop production beyond the starter looks like this: Iglesias has been the name grabbing the early time at short in Bogaerts' absence as the latter deals with a foot fracture. He's been an important part of the team's bench this year, but that's due almost exclusively to his versatility. He's played 39 games at second base, 19 at third, 24 at shortstop, and has two innings in left field to his name. Since Bogaerts went down, it's been Iglesias and his early 0-for-13 stretch as a lineup regular working in his stead. That the Padres are going to be forced to deploy Iglesias in an everyday role is certainly cause for concern. His 64 wRC+ on the year isn't coming from the world of a small sample; there just isn't much that the bat has to offer. Given that, one does wonder if the other choice, Mason McCoy, could offer just a bit more. In 98 games with El Paso this year, McCoy posted a wRC+ of 89, with a .272/.354/.450 slash, a .178 ISO, and 17 steals. There's much more of a penchant for strikeouts than we see with Iglesias (25.6 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A), but he does offer at least the potential to run into a bit of impact at the plate. While never an upper-tier prospect, McCoy did find his way into MLB Pipeline's Top 30 list for the Baltimore Orioles back in 2020. His scouting report had the following to say: McCoy has become something of a minor league journeyman in the years since, appearing in each of Baltimore, Seattle, and Toronto's system prior to his arrival in San Diego's in 2024. While you're not going to get even Bogaerts' level of production out of him, it does stand to reason that McCoy could offer a bit more than Iglesias as the Padres work to bridge the gap between now and the end of the month, when Bogaerts could be back in the mix. That's especially true when you consider the baserunning component. That was a primary factor that Bogaerts offered the lineup. He was able to work his way on base and provide a source of competence in that respect. Iglesias is not only a below-average bat, but a below-average baserunner. McCoy not only offers a touch more upside at the plate, but much more of it in those rare instances that he winds up on base. That seems a worthy tradeoff as you work to find some level of production in the absence of Xander Bogaerts. Such a scenario would allow the team to continue rolling Iglesias out as a utility infielder to give the other starters a day off in this final stretch of the regular season. Of course, it's a route the team could also go by simply moving Iglesias around and inserting McCoy on days in which someone like Machado or Jake Cronenworth needs a breather. But that would leave a notable gap in the lineup at two spots, rather than one. Ultimately, it's an entirely unenviable situation for the Padres. Even if Bogaerts wasn't performing at a level akin to his days in Boston, he was still a source of stability in the lineup. Now without him, there's a rock-and-a-hard-place scenario playing out in San Diego with no "correct" answer in sight. There's an argument to be made that it should be McCoy, but it's likely going to be a limp to the finish out of that spot no matter which way the chips fall. View full article